Same SGC 7 Mantle Sold 4 times in 15 months

[Casey2296]

I like your health of the hobby posts Ryan, very informative.
I'd be curious to see the numbers on a 14CJ Cobb leading up to the ones coming to market in LOTG, Heritage, and I think REA.

[Fred]

What truly sucks here is if there are false reports for final sale prices. Yes, call me naive.

It's certainly unethical to report false sales prices, but is it illegal?

Is there a difference between reporting false sales prices vs false auction prices? Or is it basically the same. To me, there's a difference.

[bcbgcbrcb]

Why not? Went on for months, even years, with Patrick Mahomes cards, NBA RPA’s, etc.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Throw together a ton of money, a high percentage of scumbags with no ethics, and essentially no deterrence. This is what you get. Welcome to the "hobby."

[bcbgcbrcb]

Maybe we need to establish some deterrence. How about starting to put together a case against those known to be involved and look to start putting people away similar to shill bidding that went on at AH’s over the years. I bet the next go around, these unscrupulous individuals will think twice or even three times before acting to artificially inflate market prices.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

Maybe we need to establish some deterrence. How about starting to put together a case against those known to be involved and look to start putting people away similar to shill bidding that went on at AH’s over the years. I bet the next go around, these unscrupulous individuals will think twice or even three times before acting to artificially inflate market prices.

In my opinion consignors are still "protecting" their cards just as they always have and always will.

[Rhotchkiss]

Regarding the Mantle, I am confident the 3rd sale (the second PWCC auction) was a real sale/transaction. Why do I say that? Because the card next popped up in Goldin, an unaffiliated competitor of PWCC. The fact that it was bought from PWCC and consigned to Goldin indicates it was the type of collector who is attracted to those venues - likely new-to-the hobby money who is chasing the trends. But I think that’s a real sale.

I highly doubt the first PWCC BIN vault sale was real. Why? First, why did it pop up in a PWCC auction mere months later?, (2) We know PWCC started defaulting on loans, bc of loans made, and had to sell collateral - this was a big time card and the more it really sells for the more they get (obviously), and (3) PWCC did A LOT of sketchy and unethical things on the way up; they would not turn ethical on the way down as the sky was falling.

I think the first “sale” was a fake intended to establish a comp. We know this happens and a struggling PWCC…. Well, enough said.

The second sale may also be a fake. I like that it’s an auction, so people bid on it. But if the hammer price was not high enough, PWCC certainly could have won its own card; there is no downside since they owe nobody money, they own the AH so no BP, and pay no taxes or shipping. Also, it shows up next in another PWCC auction (3rd sale) a few months later. Sure, it could be a bona fide consignment, but it just stinks like fish. Instead, I think it’s more likely that by the 3rd sale, perhaps things at PWCC are worse and they really had to let the card go at whatever price to pay creditors.

So, I am saying- the first sale is fake, the second sale was pwcc buying its own card to protect from what was considered a bad price - so another fake sale (sort of). The third sale is real. The fourth sale is real, but not sure why the dude sold it - either the seller was in real bad shape too or he though he stole it from pwcc (based on the prior two comps) and thought he would do real well selling it Goldin.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

In my opinion consignors are still "protecting" their cards just as they always have and always will.

A reminder. It is expressly LEGAL for a consignor to bid on their own items as long as the possibility is disclosed and the consignor pays for the item (of course paying for the item you consigned means just covering whatever commissions and BP the auction house was to receive)

That being said our terms and conditions expressly forbid consignors from bidding on their items. Of course it's very hard to catch someone who is even moderately clever, but we have booted one consignor that I remember.

[BioCRN]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Throw together a ton of money, a high percentage of scumbags with no ethics, and essentially no deterrence. This is what you get. Welcome to the "hobby."

I've been in the hobby since the early 80s and market manipulation is something I just consider part of the hobby.

I know there's many here that have been part of the hobby for prior decades, but "market makers" making/manipulating the market has been nothing but a fact of life for me my entire time in the hobby.

The artificial pumping of cards, the purposely withholding cards from the market to create artificial rarity (70s/80s minor league sets come to mind), and straight up price fixing by the majors (and using monthly Beckett guides to codify the fix) are things that have always been normal in my world.

I imagine many hobbies are like this, but my entire hobby experience has been a noticeable mix of great people and terrible people, some of those people playing both sides of great/terrible depending on the moment.

I still like my pictures of baseball dudes, though.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Fred

What truly sucks here is if there are false reports for final sale prices. Yes, call me naive.

It's certainly unethical to report false sales prices, but is it illegal?

Is there a difference between reporting false sales prices vs false auction prices? Or is it basically the same. To me, there's a difference.

It’s been the Wild West for years.

I know that if a bidder doesn’t play in auction, that sale price is still listed.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

It’s been the Wild West for years.

I know that if a bidder doesn’t play in auction, that sale price is still listed.

Not on PWCC. They only list sales that get paid for.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Not on PWCC. They only list sales that get paid for.

How do you know?

[CardPadre]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

How do you know?

Yeah, valid question. Here’s a card that I was following a few weeks ago that “sold” and is represented as such currently in their history. Now it is live again on their weekly. Does seem like it almost went certainly unpaid for, unless someone just loves the thrill of the flip gamble.

ETA: Maybe they clean these things up eventually.

[Fred]

I'm still trying to understand why anybody would want to keep their cards in a "vault" unless they plan to resell it (and probably quickly). If you're a hobbyist/collector, why would you not want to have your cardboard in your hands?

What happens if the business that maintains possession of the card(s) loses the card? I realize that would be the last thing a business wants because then everyone would be scrambling to get their stuff out of the vault. Have there been many high profile cases of a vault company losing a card?

It seems this type of business model would be great for a flipper. But there also seems to be a lot of potential for monkey business.

How many vault businesses are there? The way I see it, if fleabay (I believe they have a vault service) drops out of the vault business, then it means there's a legitimate sustainability issue for the business model because they are a publicly traded company with potential for a lot of blow back if any monkey business is found out for them.

When I see fleabay get out of the vault business, then that will tell me the business model is probably flawed and that the other businesses are potentially/possibly/probably involved in some shady practices. For now I'm of the opinion that this vault venture is like anything else, you get the wrong element in it and you have recipe for fraud and abuse.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by CardPadre

Yeah, valid question. Here’s a card that I was following a few weeks ago that “sold” and is represented as such currently in their history. Now it is live again on their weekly. Does seem like it almost went certainly unpaid for, unless someone just loves the thrill of the flip gamble.

ETA: Maybe they clean these things up eventually.

Something that happens quite regularly in this hobby is people looking for arbitrage opportunities. Vintage cards in BVG holders are often sold to someone hoping to cross it over to PSA or SGC and then flip it for a profit. I see this regularly on social media platforms, guys (often modern collectors) trying to move over to vintage land and attempting to bring their "flip game" with them. Most end collectors avoid cards in BVG slabs. At least in general. Surely there are some exceptions. But when I see a vintage BVG card being bought and resold shortly after, it does not raise any red flags to me, as that is easily explained by someone hoping to cross it over to PSA and PSA subsequently rejecting it. After which, they just try to cut their losses and resell it.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

How do you know?

Betsy told me directly that sales only get posted once they get paid for. I also have a few friends who work there, and we've had these discussions multiple times. When a crazy sale happens, I try to get the inside scoop on whether or not it gets paid for. Whenever one doesn't get paid for it doesn't show up on their sold listings search results. Also, as I consigner, I can confirm this to be the case. I've had two cards not get paid for there since they launched their platform (and dozens that were paid for). As soon as a card gets paid for, I can see a change in my accounting page and then I can find it in their sales history page. But for the cards that went unpaid, they never showed up on the sales history page (I know because I kept checking because I was relying on those proceeds to fund another big purchase).

Is it possible that someone high up at PWCC could manipulate the system and fake a sale through a manual override? Sure, it's possible. If someone has direct access to the database, they could create an entry. But that's not how their system is set up by default. And I don't see any reason to assume that this is happening without evidence. And seeing a sale that seems high in retrospect, but which actually aligns perfectly with where the broader market was at the time, is not evidence.

[Snapolit1]

Refusing to leap to assumptions that are unsupported by evidence is very out of vogue these days.

Originally Posted by Snowman

Betsy told me directly that sales only get posted once they get paid for. I also have a few friends who work there, and we've had these discussions multiple times. When a crazy sale happens, I try to get the inside scoop on whether or not it gets paid for. Whenever one doesn't get paid for it doesn't show up on their sold listings search results. Also, as I consigner, I can confirm this to be the case. I've had two cards not get paid for there since they launched their platform (and dozens that were paid for). As soon as a card gets paid for, I can see a change in my accounting page and then I can find it in their sales history page. But for the cards that went unpaid, they never showed up on the sales history page (I know because I kept checking because I was relying on those proceeds to fund another big purchase).

Is it possible that someone high up at PWCC could manipulate the system and fake a sale through a manual override? Sure, it's possible. If someone has direct access to the database, they could create an entry. But that's not how their system is set up by default. And I don't see any reason to assume that this is happening without evidence. And seeing a sale that seems high in retrospect, but which actually aligns perfectly with where the broader market was at the time, is not evidence.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Betsy told me directly that sales only get posted once they get paid for. I also have a few friends who work there, and we've had these discussions multiple times. When a crazy sale happens, I try to get the inside scoop on whether or not it gets paid for. Whenever one doesn't get paid for it doesn't show up on their sold listings search results. Also, as I consigner, I can confirm this to be the case. I've had two cards not get paid for there since they launched their platform (and dozens that were paid for). As soon as a card gets paid for, I can see a change in my accounting page and then I can find it in their sales history page. But for the cards that went unpaid, they never showed up on the sales history page (I know because I kept checking because I was relying on those proceeds to fund another big purchase).

Is it possible that someone high up at PWCC could manipulate the system and fake a sale through a manual override? Sure, it's possible. If someone has direct access to the database, they could create an entry. But that's not how their system is set up by default. And I don't see any reason to assume that this is happening without evidence. And seeing a sale that seems high in retrospect, but which actually aligns perfectly with where the broader market was at the time, is not evidence.

Of course Betsy is going to tell you that. You trust Betsy? Of course people who work there are not going to admit to fake sales. You should revise your post to, PWCC told me they don't do that.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

I'd be curious to see the numbers on a 14CJ Cobb leading up to the ones coming to market in LOTG, Heritage, and I think REA.

Phil, here are VCP results for the 1914 CJ Cobb in a PSA 4. Aside from the last sale, it has been a steady increase over time (I have also included a pick of the price graph). The very pretty PSA 4 example in LOTG is currently at $36k with BP with 10 days to go.

Some things to note about these results: (1) they are ALL auctions, which I personally view as more legit/reliable that BIN, (2) you can’t see from the picture, but other than the last sale and a 2017 sale (both Probstein - EBay), every single sale from auction houses, which I feel are more legit/reliable than Ebay, and (3) the picture shows 11 sales over a 13 year period - less than 1/year and only twice was the same card sold within 2 years of its last sale (the final Probstein sale is one of them).

Based on all this, I view these comps as legit and I see a healthy and steady trend of increased value. This is the exact type of card I like to collect/invest in - not too common, very desirable (player, issue, image), and steady and verifiable history of value increase. I expect the LOTG Cobb will finish above the 2022 comp.

Regarding that 2022 comp and the fact that it sold for $9k less than the prior sale - it’s the same exact card that was sold in REA for $58k a year before. I think REA is a better venue to sell this card, it was just sold, and the market may have topped from its 2021 high when sold by REA. The fact that it sold for less, in an eBay auction, also indicates to me that the Probstein auction was legit and without shilling

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Phil, here are VCP results for the 1914 CJ Cobb in a PSA 4. Aside from the last sale, it has been a steady increase over time (I have also included a pick of the price graph). The very pretty PSA 4 example in LOTG is currently at $36k with BP with 10 days to go.

Some things to note about these results: (1) they are ALL auctions, which I personally view as more legit/reliable that BIN, (2) you can’t see from the picture, but other than the last sale and a 2017 sale (both Probstein - EBay), every single sale from auction houses, which I feel are more legit/reliable than Ebay, and (3) the picture shows 11 sales over a 13 year period - less than 1/year and only twice was the same card sold within 2 years of its last sale (the final Probstein sale is one of them).

Based on all this, I view these comps as legit and I see a healthy and steady trend of increased value. This is the exact type of card I like to collect/invest in - not too common, very desirable (player, issue, image), and steady and verifiable history of value increase. I expect the LOTG Cobb will finish above the 2022 comp.

Regarding that 2022 comp and the fact that it sold for $9k less than the prior sale - it’s the same exact card that was sold in REA for $58k a year before. I think REA is a better venue to sell this card, it was just sold, and the market may have topped from its 2021 high when sold by REA. The fact that it sold for less, in an eBay auction, also indicates to me that the Probstein auction was legit and without shilling

Thanks for the breakdown Ryan, I also see this card as a health of the hobby indicator with all the right combinations. Fun to own and a good investment at the same time.
I think the LOTG example has a chance to beat the 2021 REA comp.

[Kidnapped18]

The 12 '14 CJ Cobb PSA 4s broken down further:

#04792514 sold for
$11,042.00 SCP 08/11/13
$13,568.38 Goodwin 09/26/14
No documented sale since then

#09171488 sold for
$31,200.00 REA 12/08/19
$42,000.00 REA 08/16/20
Currently in a collector's Registry

#11178344 sold for
$7,467.00 Mile High 05/19/11
No documented sale since then

#11775525 Current LOTG Cobb
No documented sales

#19507408 sold for
$25,223.00 eBay/Probstein 05/21/17

#27617910
No documented sales

#30920736
No documented sales

#30920737 sold for
$58,800.00 REA 07/26/21
$49,768.00 eBay/Probstein 11/01/22

#40404026 sold for
$5,936.00 Legendary 02/23/05
$36,000.00 REA 10/28/18

#45032928 sold for
$53,270.00 Collect 11/14/19
$50,400.00 Goldin 09/21/20

#50077795 sold for
$17,925.00 Heritage 11/05/14
No documented sale since then
Currently in a collector's Registry

Have not located the 12th PSA 4 Cobb yet

I believe I had $55,000 as the over/under on the November LOTG Cobb in a separate thread/post

[Peter_Spaeth]

#04792514 sold for
$11,042.00 SCP 08/11/13
$13,568.38 Goodwin 09/26/14
No documented sale since then

I acquired this in a trade at essentially the same value. It hasn't gone anywhere.

[Casey2296]

Nice Cobby Peter!.

[Peter_Spaeth]

https://mavin.io/item/1952-Topps-Mic...antle%20%23311

[Peter_Spaeth]

Also, someone tells me the SGC cert is not active?

[Kidnapped18]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

#04792514 sold for
$11,042.00 SCP 08/11/13
$13,568.38 Goodwin 09/26/14
No documented sale since then

I acquired this in a trade at essentially the same value. It hasn't gone anywhere.

Great card Peter!

[Topnotchsy]

I have no way of knowing whether the really high sales were legit or not. But I am quite confident that there were many, many people who bought into the bubble.

Prices were skyrocketing, the narrative was that VC and other investment money had entered the hobby. A huge glut of people seemed to join the hobby during COVID (can't that couldn't be spent on experiences was being spent on things, and gov handouts meant a lot of expendible cash in the market).

With those factors and a crazy hype machine running, I believe that a ton of legit sales occurred with people buying into the hype, and in many cases, people spent money they did not have.

Thankfully for me the areas I collect are niche enough that they didn't go through the volatility (which mostly seemed to hit more popular items). It sickens me how many people who were unaware got hit really hard, whether it was new collectors who had no reference point, or vintage collectors who value what they collect and believed that others were finally catching on, not realizing it was a bubble.

[Johnny630]

This is an Excellent Post.... it will always be my "THEORY" that the real money was made on the under cards of lesser grade by the INVESTORS who drove up the prices on the key big star names in higher grades... were they all paid for?? were they not paid for ? Certain Auctions Per their rules can bid on their own items. The rules are clearly there for bidders to see if they fail to they're being ignorant to their terms. I digress.. MY THEORY and that's all it is, is that many were paid for in different way's/structures set up (vaults/Fee Structures/ Cards in Return Leverage Loans ect./ Investor privileges). I 99.9% believe the sales of most lower graded key examples as being legit...people wanted in on this. It was perfect.

People were paying ridiculous numbers for low-grade Ruths, Cobbs, Wagner's, Matthewson's, Jacksons, Mantles, Robinsons, May's, Rose RC, Sever Rookie... etc... all of these in lesser grades have come back down to earth. The highly desired pre-war and early Mantles less but go into the 50s and 60s take a look at all the key big stars in grades below 8 and they have come way back and are not done.

Even in modern 7's and 8's of 86 Jordan's, 93 SP Jeter's, 80 Henderson's...

The hobby turned a blind eye to my theory because let's face it many felt good hey they're semi-rich with these cards now wow what a great time....if you thought that it felt good real good so keep it going.

So now here we all are .....it's all been very interesting to learn from. I love the depth and intellect of the members of this board.

[Snapolit1]

I consigned a card to one of the AH advertisers here at the height of the bubble that sold for nearly 200k. Today? Maybe $125k? There was a major run up in prices. Some were legit sales; and others prob were not.

I seem to have missed the government handouts. I didn't get a dime.

Originally Posted by Topnotchsy

I have no way of knowing whether the really high sales were legit or not. But I am quite confident that there were many, many people who bought into the bubble.

Prices were skyrocketing, the narrative was that VC and other investment money had entered the hobby. A huge glut of people seemed to join the hobby during COVID (can't that couldn't be spent on experiences was being spent on things, and gov handouts meant a lot of expendible cash in the market).

With those factors and a crazy hype machine running, I believe that a ton of legit sales occurred with people buying into the hype, and in many cases, people spent money they did not have.

Thankfully for me the areas I collect are niche enough that they didn't go through the volatility (which mostly seemed to hit more popular items). It sickens me how many people who were unaware got hit really hard, whether it was new collectors who had no reference point, or vintage collectors who value what they collect and believed that others were finally catching on, not realizing it was a bubble.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Topnotchsy

I have no way of knowing whether the really high sales were legit or not. But I am quite confident that there were many, many people who bought into the bubble.

Prices were skyrocketing, the narrative was that VC and other investment money had entered the hobby. A huge glut of people seemed to join the hobby during COVID (can't that couldn't be spent on experiences was being spent on things, and gov handouts meant a lot of expendible cash in the market).

With those factors and a crazy hype machine running, I believe that a ton of legit sales occurred with people buying into the hype, and in many cases, people spent money they did not have.

Thankfully for me the areas I collect are niche enough that they didn't go through the volatility (which mostly seemed to hit more popular items). It sickens me how many people who were unaware got hit really hard, whether it was new collectors who had no reference point, or vintage collectors who value what they collect and believed that others were finally catching on, not realizing it was a bubble.

I think many are realizing now. I have heard the term "buried" in the last few months more than in a long time. And by "buried" I mean I bought too high and now I can't sell close to what I bought it for. Very sad.