Same SGC 7 Mantle Sold 4 times in 15 months

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

I'd be curious to see the numbers on a 14CJ Cobb leading up to the ones coming to market in LOTG, Heritage, and I think REA.

Phil, here are VCP results for the 1914 CJ Cobb in a PSA 4. Aside from the last sale, it has been a steady increase over time (I have also included a pick of the price graph). The very pretty PSA 4 example in LOTG is currently at $36k with BP with 10 days to go.

Some things to note about these results: (1) they are ALL auctions, which I personally view as more legit/reliable that BIN, (2) you can’t see from the picture, but other than the last sale and a 2017 sale (both Probstein - EBay), every single sale from auction houses, which I feel are more legit/reliable than Ebay, and (3) the picture shows 11 sales over a 13 year period - less than 1/year and only twice was the same card sold within 2 years of its last sale (the final Probstein sale is one of them).

Based on all this, I view these comps as legit and I see a healthy and steady trend of increased value. This is the exact type of card I like to collect/invest in - not too common, very desirable (player, issue, image), and steady and verifiable history of value increase. I expect the LOTG Cobb will finish above the 2022 comp.

Regarding that 2022 comp and the fact that it sold for $9k less than the prior sale - it’s the same exact card that was sold in REA for $58k a year before. I think REA is a better venue to sell this card, it was just sold, and the market may have topped from its 2021 high when sold by REA. The fact that it sold for less, in an eBay auction, also indicates to me that the Probstein auction was legit and without shilling

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Phil, here are VCP results for the 1914 CJ Cobb in a PSA 4. Aside from the last sale, it has been a steady increase over time (I have also included a pick of the price graph). The very pretty PSA 4 example in LOTG is currently at $36k with BP with 10 days to go.

Some things to note about these results: (1) they are ALL auctions, which I personally view as more legit/reliable that BIN, (2) you can’t see from the picture, but other than the last sale and a 2017 sale (both Probstein - EBay), every single sale from auction houses, which I feel are more legit/reliable than Ebay, and (3) the picture shows 11 sales over a 13 year period - less than 1/year and only twice was the same card sold within 2 years of its last sale (the final Probstein sale is one of them).

Based on all this, I view these comps as legit and I see a healthy and steady trend of increased value. This is the exact type of card I like to collect/invest in - not too common, very desirable (player, issue, image), and steady and verifiable history of value increase. I expect the LOTG Cobb will finish above the 2022 comp.

Regarding that 2022 comp and the fact that it sold for $9k less than the prior sale - it’s the same exact card that was sold in REA for $58k a year before. I think REA is a better venue to sell this card, it was just sold, and the market may have topped from its 2021 high when sold by REA. The fact that it sold for less, in an eBay auction, also indicates to me that the Probstein auction was legit and without shilling

Thanks for the breakdown Ryan, I also see this card as a health of the hobby indicator with all the right combinations. Fun to own and a good investment at the same time.
I think the LOTG example has a chance to beat the 2021 REA comp.

[Kidnapped18]

The 12 '14 CJ Cobb PSA 4s broken down further:

#04792514 sold for
$11,042.00 SCP 08/11/13
$13,568.38 Goodwin 09/26/14
No documented sale since then

#09171488 sold for
$31,200.00 REA 12/08/19
$42,000.00 REA 08/16/20
Currently in a collector's Registry

#11178344 sold for
$7,467.00 Mile High 05/19/11
No documented sale since then

#11775525 Current LOTG Cobb
No documented sales

#19507408 sold for
$25,223.00 eBay/Probstein 05/21/17

#27617910
No documented sales

#30920736
No documented sales

#30920737 sold for
$58,800.00 REA 07/26/21
$49,768.00 eBay/Probstein 11/01/22

#40404026 sold for
$5,936.00 Legendary 02/23/05
$36,000.00 REA 10/28/18

#45032928 sold for
$53,270.00 Collect 11/14/19
$50,400.00 Goldin 09/21/20

#50077795 sold for
$17,925.00 Heritage 11/05/14
No documented sale since then
Currently in a collector's Registry

Have not located the 12th PSA 4 Cobb yet

I believe I had $55,000 as the over/under on the November LOTG Cobb in a separate thread/post

[Peter_Spaeth]

#04792514 sold for
$11,042.00 SCP 08/11/13
$13,568.38 Goodwin 09/26/14
No documented sale since then

I acquired this in a trade at essentially the same value. It hasn't gone anywhere.

[Casey2296]

Nice Cobby Peter!.

[Peter_Spaeth]

https://mavin.io/item/1952-Topps-Mic...antle%20%23311

[Peter_Spaeth]

Also, someone tells me the SGC cert is not active?

[Rhotchkiss]

That’s unreal. So it “sold” another time in 2021 for $950k. Same card, 5 sales, 4 from pwcc, two from vault/BIN. No, nothing fishy there at all. Totally normal and defensible

Interesting that its not picked up by VCP.

[Kidnapped18]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

#04792514 sold for
$11,042.00 SCP 08/11/13
$13,568.38 Goodwin 09/26/14
No documented sale since then

I acquired this in a trade at essentially the same value. It hasn't gone anywhere.

Great card Peter!

[Topnotchsy]

I have no way of knowing whether the really high sales were legit or not. But I am quite confident that there were many, many people who bought into the bubble.

Prices were skyrocketing, the narrative was that VC and other investment money had entered the hobby. A huge glut of people seemed to join the hobby during COVID (can't that couldn't be spent on experiences was being spent on things, and gov handouts meant a lot of expendible cash in the market).

With those factors and a crazy hype machine running, I believe that a ton of legit sales occurred with people buying into the hype, and in many cases, people spent money they did not have.

Thankfully for me the areas I collect are niche enough that they didn't go through the volatility (which mostly seemed to hit more popular items). It sickens me how many people who were unaware got hit really hard, whether it was new collectors who had no reference point, or vintage collectors who value what they collect and believed that others were finally catching on, not realizing it was a bubble.

[Johnny630]

This is an Excellent Post.... it will always be my "THEORY" that the real money was made on the under cards of lesser grade by the INVESTORS who drove up the prices on the key big star names in higher grades... were they all paid for?? were they not paid for ? Certain Auctions Per their rules can bid on their own items. The rules are clearly there for bidders to see if they fail to they're being ignorant to their terms. I digress.. MY THEORY and that's all it is, is that many were paid for in different way's/structures set up (vaults/Fee Structures/ Cards in Return Leverage Loans ect./ Investor privileges). I 99.9% believe the sales of most lower graded key examples as being legit...people wanted in on this. It was perfect.

People were paying ridiculous numbers for low-grade Ruths, Cobbs, Wagner's, Matthewson's, Jacksons, Mantles, Robinsons, May's, Rose RC, Sever Rookie... etc... all of these in lesser grades have come back down to earth. The highly desired pre-war and early Mantles less but go into the 50s and 60s take a look at all the key big stars in grades below 8 and they have come way back and are not done.

Even in modern 7's and 8's of 86 Jordan's, 93 SP Jeter's, 80 Henderson's...

The hobby turned a blind eye to my theory because let's face it many felt good hey they're semi-rich with these cards now wow what a great time....if you thought that it felt good real good so keep it going.

So now here we all are .....it's all been very interesting to learn from. I love the depth and intellect of the members of this board.

[bcbgcbrcb]

Sone good insight there, Johnny. I can give one specific example of my own that matches your theory exactly. Just after the Gretzky OPC rookie became the first ever million dollar hockey card, I went out and bought up three of my own except they were three 6’s instead of 10’s. Today, the value of those sits at around 50% of what I paid for them. And that’s Gretzky we’re talking about. Just about the same scenario with Bird/Magic in basketball at the PSA 6 level. Jim Brown RC is a good example in football, my three 6’s are all sitting around 50% in value from what I paid for them. Vintage baseball, too many to keep track of but I believe, not nearly the same percentage drop, although more than enough for sure.

[Snapolit1]

I consigned a card to one of the AH advertisers here at the height of the bubble that sold for nearly 200k. Today? Maybe $125k? There was a major run up in prices. Some were legit sales; and others prob were not.

I seem to have missed the government handouts. I didn't get a dime.

Originally Posted by Topnotchsy

I have no way of knowing whether the really high sales were legit or not. But I am quite confident that there were many, many people who bought into the bubble.

Prices were skyrocketing, the narrative was that VC and other investment money had entered the hobby. A huge glut of people seemed to join the hobby during COVID (can't that couldn't be spent on experiences was being spent on things, and gov handouts meant a lot of expendible cash in the market).

With those factors and a crazy hype machine running, I believe that a ton of legit sales occurred with people buying into the hype, and in many cases, people spent money they did not have.

Thankfully for me the areas I collect are niche enough that they didn't go through the volatility (which mostly seemed to hit more popular items). It sickens me how many people who were unaware got hit really hard, whether it was new collectors who had no reference point, or vintage collectors who value what they collect and believed that others were finally catching on, not realizing it was a bubble.

[Republicaninmass]

"it's a victimless crime counselor(s)"

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I seem to have missed the government handouts. I didn't get a dime.

Did you have a payroll and rent to pay for your office in 2020-21? Why are you just figuring out now that you missed PPP and EIDL?

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Topnotchsy

I have no way of knowing whether the really high sales were legit or not. But I am quite confident that there were many, many people who bought into the bubble.

Prices were skyrocketing, the narrative was that VC and other investment money had entered the hobby. A huge glut of people seemed to join the hobby during COVID (can't that couldn't be spent on experiences was being spent on things, and gov handouts meant a lot of expendible cash in the market).

With those factors and a crazy hype machine running, I believe that a ton of legit sales occurred with people buying into the hype, and in many cases, people spent money they did not have.

Thankfully for me the areas I collect are niche enough that they didn't go through the volatility (which mostly seemed to hit more popular items). It sickens me how many people who were unaware got hit really hard, whether it was new collectors who had no reference point, or vintage collectors who value what they collect and believed that others were finally catching on, not realizing it was a bubble.

I think many are realizing now. I have heard the term "buried" in the last few months more than in a long time. And by "buried" I mean I bought too high and now I can't sell close to what I bought it for. Very sad.

[darwinbulldog]

I presume this has already been pointed out, but the whole market's down about 50%. Nothing special going on with the Mantle.