Let's talk about Hall of Fame candidates who have been "neglected"

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Has anyone ever questioned Koufax' regime of cortisone (steroid) injections?

I forget if it was here or over on the PSA boards but someone made a post basically detailing that Koufax was a PED user by pretty much every definition of the word.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Tabe

I forget if it was here or over on the PSA boards but someone made a post basically detailing that Koufax was a PED user by pretty much every definition of the word.

If Bonds, Clemens and Canseco had been more likeable people, you wonder if the whole perception would be different. See example of Big Papi.

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If Bonds, Clemens and Canseco had been more likeable people, you wonder if the whole perception would be different. See example of Big Papi.

I think being likable helps...that's why Pettite gets some HOF love and some others don't.

On Ortiz...I just don't put "leaked positive for something on an anonymous test before there was real testing" in the same category as "positive test after when testing became a thing".

Plus, of note...all the "good" part of Ortiz's career came AFTER testing was put in place.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

I think being likable helps...that's why Pettite gets some HOF love and some others don't.

On Ortiz...I just don't put "leaked positive for something on an anonymous test before there was real testing" in the same category as "positive test after when testing became a thing".

Plus, of note...all the "good" part of Ortiz's career came AFTER testing was put in place.

Look at his HR totals up to age 26.

https://sports.cbslocal.com/2016/05/...eroid-red-sox/

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Look at his HR totals up to age 26.

https://sports.cbslocal.com/2016/05/...eroid-red-sox/

Right, and if steroids were something you took and you became good at baseball your entire career, it'd be concerning. But since they don't work that way, I see it as "the good part of his career came when testing was in place, and he never tested positive for anything".

I mean, I know they tested "randomly", but you know guys like Ortiz and the other HR guys got tested more than the 160 pound utility infielders.

Now Manny...don't get me started on that sad story.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

Right, and if steroids were something you took and you became good at baseball your entire career, it'd be concerning. But since they don't work that way, I see it as "the good part of his career came when testing was in place, and he never tested positive for anything".

I mean, I know they tested "randomly", but you know guys like Ortiz and the other HR guys got tested more than the 160 pound utility infielders.

Now Manny...don't get me started on that sad story.

3 percent of his career offensive output through age 26. Doesn't look good.

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

3 percent of his career offensive output through age 26. Doesn't look good.

I see that...but are we to assume he started using steroids and just never got caught?

I wish whatever NY writer leaked that he was on the list had the decency to let us know what he tested positive for.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

On Ortiz...I just don't put "leaked positive for something on an anonymous test before there was real testing" in the same category as "positive test after when testing became a thing".

Neither Bonds nor Clemens ever failed a test administered by MLB.

[Ricky]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Neither Bonds nor Clemens ever failed a test administered by MLB.

But Bonds’ head grew two hat sizes….

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Neither Bonds nor Clemens ever failed a test administered by MLB.

That's true...but there's some pretty good public evidence that they used, including what, when, and how.

But maybe the point should be just that we simply do not know who did what and when, and how much it affected their careers.

Did guys like Raffy and Manny only use late in their careers, or for many years? Does it matter? And let's not forget, when they finally started testing, more pitchers tested positive than hitters. What an era....maybe we just need to stop playing "morality police" and just elect the best players of that era.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

That's true...but there's some pretty good public evidence that they used, including what, when, and how.

But maybe the point should be just that we simply do not know who did what and when, and how much it affected their careers.

Did guys like Raffy and Manny only use late in their careers, or for many years? Does it matter? And let's not forget, when they finally started testing, more pitchers tested positive than hitters. What an era....maybe we just need to stop playing "morality police" and just elect the best players of that era.

I'm not sure it holds up to analysis, but I would still keep out Sosa and Palmeiro. I think my gut tells me those guys were just OK players without cheating whereas Bonds and Clemens and possibly McGwire were HOF caliber anyhow. Hard to know what to make of guys like Ortiz who I really like but strongly suspect, and strongly suspect he wasn't that great without. Manny, just no clue.

[h2oya311]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I'm not sure it holds up to analysis, but I would still keep out Sosa and Palmeiro. I think my gut tells me those guys were just OK players without cheating whereas Bonds and Clemens and possibly McGwire were HOF caliber anyhow. Hard to know what to make of guys like Ortiz who I really like but strongly suspect, and strongly suspect he wasn't that great without. Manny, just no clue.

Amazing how quickly everyone "forgot" about Palmeiro. He was on crappy Baltimore and Texas teams but he had probably the second smoothest left handed swing (behind only Griffey, Jr.) of all time. Maybe you're right about him being just "okay" without the 'roids, but I don't think so.

It's hard to argue with 3,000+ hits, 550+ HRs and 1,800+ RBIs. Oh, and did you know that he walked more than he struck out for his career? A career .371 OBP ain't too shabby.

You know how many players are on the exclusive 3k hit and 500 HR club? Only 6. Aaron, Mays, E. Murray, ARod, Pujols, and Palmeiro. That's rarified air there, my friends.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

That's true...but there's some pretty good public evidence that they used, including what, when, and how.

But maybe the point should be just that we simply do not know who did what and when, and how much it affected their careers.

This is true. My list of suspected users is a lot longer than most. I'm in the Ken Caminiti & Jose Canseco camp that says a big percentage was using.

[JollyElm]

Jeff frickin' Kent!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Come on now!!!!!!!!!!!

Pardon my outrage, but...
How the hell is the all-time leader in RBIs and HRs for a second baseman NOT a first ballot HOFer??????????????????? He was a run scoring monster at a position that's not noted for knocking guys in!!! He had 1,500 RBIs as a second baseman!!! He won an MVP!!! And he's going to drop off the ballot? Why, because the ridiculous sportswriters don't like him?? Boo f_cking hoo!!!!!! What a joke!!!

And save me the stupidity of advanced theoretical stats to pretend he doesn't belong. We all watched him play and know what a stud he was. On any all-time greats baseball team, he would be playing second base.

Oh, and Dave Parker.

[molenick]

There are two (at least two) ways to look at this. I don’t really like the "this [bad selection] is in and this guy was better so he should be in" approach. I call this the "Baines and Haines Problem". There are hundreds of pitchers better than Jesse Haines that are not in the Hall (at least according to Baseball Reference rankings), but that doesn't mean they all should be in. I like the "Magee Method" where there is a player you can make a reasonable argument is the best at his position not in the Hall.

I am not smart enough to determine what "best" means so I will just present for your consideration the highest ranked player at each position (as per Baseball Reference) eligible for the Hall who is not tainted by either accusation or proof of steroid or HGH use. Pete Rose and Joe Jackson are not eligible so they are not included below, nor are active players (since they are not eligible yet).

c Thurman Munson (Joe Mauer ranks higher but has not been retired for five years)
1b Todd Helton
2b Bobby Grich
ss Bill Dahlen
3b Scott Rolen
lf Sherry Magee
cf Kenny Lofton (Carlos Beltran ranks higher but has not been retired for five years)
rf Dwight Evans
sp Jim McCormick
rp Bobby Shantz

The last one was a surprise to me but Shantz pitched in 537 games and started 171, so I guess he qualifies as a relief pitcher. However, over 25% of his career WAR came from his MVP season as a starter. After him is Tom Gordon, who was also both a reliever and starter (890 games, 206 starts) but whose WAR was more evenly distributed. After him is Firpo Marberry, who I was surprised to see had about the same game splits as Shantz (551 games, 186 starts) and who I think is the best candidate of the three.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I have never understood how Grich gets so high up in those WAR/JAWS ratings. Here are his other Baseball Reference metrics.


Something does not add up for me.


Black Ink
Batting - 8 (355), AverageHOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink
Batting - 40 (784), AverageHOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor
Batting - 42 (504), LikelyHOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards
Batting - 32 (305), AverageHOFer ≈ 50


And even more telling:
Similar Batters
1.Toby Harrah (908.6)
2.Brandon Phillips (898.2)
3.Jay Bell (894.8)
4.Bret Boone (892.6)
5.Jhonny Peralta (884.1)
6.Asdrubal Cabrera (883.7)
7.Chase Utley (882.6)
8.Sal Bando (879.9)
9.Ian Kinsler (876.1)
10.Travis Fryman (871.6

[Jason19th]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I have never understood how Grich gets so high up in those WAR/JAWS ratings. Here are his other Baseball Reference metrics.


Something does not add up for me.


Black Ink
Batting - 8 (355), AverageHOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink
Batting - 40 (784), AverageHOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor
Batting - 42 (504), LikelyHOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards
Batting - 32 (305), AverageHOFer ≈ 50


And even more telling:
Similar Batters
1.Toby Harrah (908.6)
2.Brandon Phillips (898.2)
3.Jay Bell (894.8)
4.Bret Boone (892.6)
5.Jhonny Peralta (884.1)
6.Asdrubal Cabrera (883.7)
7.Chase Utley (882.6)
8.Sal Bando (879.9)
9.Ian Kinsler (876.1)
10.Travis Fryman (871.6

Two factors explain Grich’s war vs other metrics

1. 16.8 of his war is from defense

2. He was very consistent. Never had a bad year and never had a crazy good year. Therefore he was always valuable but didn’t lead the league in much

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Jason19th

Two factors explain Grich’s war vs other metrics

1. 16.8 of his war is from defense

2. He was very consistent. Never had a bad year and never had a crazy good year. Therefore he was always valuable but didn’t lead the league in much

Also the fact that 2B was not exactly an offensive position during Grich's career. He had a lot of 13 homer, 50 RBI seasons that just don't look all that impressive.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Also the fact that 2B was not exactly an offensive position during Grich's career. He had a lot of 13 homer, 50 RBI seasons that just don't look all that impressive.

Maybe the numbers don't support me but I would rather have Jeff Kent or Chase Utley in the Hall than Grich. Whitaker too.

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by molenick

The last one was a surprise to me but Shantz pitched in 537 games and started 171, so I guess he qualifies as a relief pitcher. However, over 25% of his career WAR came from his MVP season as a starter. After him is Tom Gordon, who was also both a reliever and starter (890 games, 206 starts) but whose WAR was more evenly distributed. After him is Firpo Marberry, who I was surprised to see had about the same game splits as Shantz (551 games, 186 starts) and who I think is the best candidate of the three.

Yeah, I wish BB-R wouldn't list relievers with a significant number of starts on the list...it really skews things. It also really shows just how amazing Mariano Rivera was, with only 10 career starts (in his rookie year, when he had a 5.51 ERA).

I think the next pure reliever to get elected is Billy Wagner. I think Joe Nathan may eventually get in, as well.