Anyone hesitant to buy now?

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by BobbyVCP

Some really great stuff posted....

The point about not knowing if a sale is real or not really does not pertain to the vintage material for the most part. At VCP we see a lot of it in the modern material for a card that does not have a recorded sale so the seller tries to set a standard with a fake BIN sale, then lists the same card in a regular auction which generally sells for about 1/3 of the fake sale. At least on our site it is blatantly obvious what is being done because you can see that they are the same card in the same case and listed 10 days later. Of course we catch these and delete the fake price. We are in the process of putting in some new software to catch these as they happen so we can get the old ones deleted as the new listing is put up so that there is no record of the fake sale on VCP to sway a potential buyer.

Basketball was the craziest section by far and away and in the past week or two I have seen it start to cool down.

There is a lot of money that just came into this hobby, I talked to a new member of VCP to help him set up his My Collection and since this July he has bought over $3 mil in card.....CRAZY. He started off with modern basketball but quickly got into vintage baseball buying PSA 8 Goudey Ruths, etc

We are experiencing a different time and we will see how this all shakes out in the next year or so....I do believe things should start to level off but not crash.

Great post Bobby. VCP is an absolutely critical tool for any collector (I literally just re-upped my gold membership last night), and it’s good to know that you continue upgrading the tool’s technology.

The bit about the recent investor who started off modern but then turned to vintage is interesting and instructive. I think it indicates (certainly does not determine), that ultimately, vintage baseball is king and the natural tendency for new collectors is to start modern, or with the guys they know/grew up with, but then to “take a ride backwards down the number line” to the vintage stuff. (Phish reference).

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Great post Bobby. VCP is an absolutely critical tool for any collector (I literally just re-upped my gold membership last night), and it’s good to know that you continue upgrading the tool’s technology.

The bit about the recent investor who started off modern but then turned to vintage is interesting and instructive. I think it indicates (certainly does not determine), that ultimately, vintage baseball is king and the natural tendency for new collectors is to start modern, or with the guys they know/grew up with, but then to “take a ride backwards down the number line" to the vintage stuff. (Phish reference).

I knew there was something I liked about you Ryan

[Exhibitman]

I am sure that some of the runs on marquee cards were manipulated by clever shillers and touts. Those gains won't hold. Many of the other price increases are genuine and will hold to some extent. For those here who aren't hobby old farts, just remember that this is not the first time prices have surged and fallen back. There were eras (late 1970s, early 1990s, mid 2000s) where prices on vintage and established stars went up then down. Usually the 'down' does not fall all the way back to the previous lows and stay there. Absent a black swan event, anyone looking for a 2010-era pricing structure on vintage cards to emerge and hold is likely to be disappointed.

What is different now than in say 1989 is data flow. Owing to social media and eBay, the speed of the rises and falls has increased, as has the prompt widespread understanding that something is going on. Pre-'net you could take advantage of all sorts of information deficits, like buying Yankees in Los Angeles and selling them in New York; now anyone can just look up the item online and get an idea of what it is worth in seconds.

One other factor that will stabilize prices is that people often will hold a card as it declines rather than sell into a price decline because they do not want to admit to the loss; as long as they hold the card they can tell themselves that it may make money eventually. Dealers do this too. I've had repeated conversations with other collectors about how some dealers frustratingly will keep cards at overpriced levels for years in their eBay stores rather than take a smaller gain and move on to the next deal. Excluding extreme rarities where it can make sense to hold out for a huge payday from a collector who wants the item and cannot find it elsewhere, a rational seller would liquidate stale inventory and reinvest the proceeds in new inventory, because moving money in and out of deals is more lucrative in the long run than tying it up in slow moving inventory that earns nothing as it sits.

[Oscar_Stanage]

I think the only place where there is a 'bubble' is the high end modern cards, Trout, etc. those are people with too much money and nothing better to do. that behavior seems similar to stock market behavior.

I don't see the same issue for most other cards. There are a lot of new collectors drawn back to the hobby who did not have money 30 years ago to buy expensive cards.. I think they are here to stay. Why shouldn't a Jordan rookie go for $25k?

For me, I don't see much risk paying $300 for a reasonable Hank Aaron that was $200 a year ago. Same with Mantle, Mays, HOfers, etc. I'll never sell. So I'll keep buying.

[Kingcobb]

The temptation to sell was too strong for me I unloaded my basketball rookies Alcindor, Chamberlin and West and glad I did I can't see them going up any more. I am already seeing them going back down. I think this is the only time I have ever come out ahead in the card market.

[Exhibitman]

"I think the only place where there is a 'bubble' is the high end modern cards, Trout, etc."

"The temptation to sell was too strong for me I unloaded my basketball rookies Alcindor, Chamberlin and West and glad I did I can't see them going up any more. I am already seeing them going back down."

The latter is being proven by the evidence. I sold a bunch of stuff into the rising market and am waiting for the downdraft to go a bit lower to replace them. Way I see it is that someone rented my cards for a little while.

[ajjohnsonsoxfan]

Love to see these long time basketball collectors sell into the upswing and make big bucks! You guys deserve it. Basketball was under appreciated for a long time (save Jordan RC's). Just bought my first basketball card couple weeks back. Wish I had started years ago.

[Oscar_Stanage]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

"The temptation to sell was too strong for me I unloaded my basketball rookies Alcindor, Chamberlin and West and glad I did I can't see them going up any more. I am already seeing them going back down."

The latter is being proven by the evidence.

Not sure this is evidence of anything other than rising prices - does not make it a bubble. I do not think the collectors who jumped in because of COVID are leaving. I never bought a basketball or hockey card in my life until June. Given, I am not buying any bball/hockey north of $100, but I am not going to leave collecting when we get a vaccine. I think most of the new money in the hobby is coming from people like me. The people paying $100s of thousands for Trouts are a different breed - they are traders, and will be on to the next thing at some point.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Wid_Conroy

Not sure this is evidence of anything other than rising prices - does not make it a bubble.

Well yeah, actually it does. Prices going up very fast then falling is literally the definition of a price bubble inflating and deflating.

Originally Posted by Wid_Conroy

I do not think the collectors who jumped in because of COVID are leaving. I never bought a basketball or hockey card in my life until June. Given, I am not buying any bball/hockey north of $100, but I am not going to leave collecting when we get a vaccine. I think most of the new money in the hobby is coming from people like me. The people paying $100s of thousands for Trouts are a different breed - they are traders, and will be on to the next thing at some point.

A bubble on certain cards and increased interest are not mutually exclusive. I think a price bubble actually attracts new collectors. I hope people stay with other sports cards. Heck, as a young collector I always collected baseball, football, basketball and hockey cards. It wasn't until my adult years that it started to get too expensive to keep it up. I've gone back to it the last decade or so, I just stay away from slabs for all but the most expensive cards.

Basketball is an especially interesting one to get into because there were so few sets from 1950-1970. It is 'doable' for a new collector.

[Oscar_Stanage]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Well yeah, actually it does. Prices going up very fast then falling is literally the definition of a price bubble inflating and deflating.

yes of course, but they have not deflated. Thats my point. for the reasons i stated, I don't think 70s basketball is the same as Trout, etc.., the buyers are real and are here to stay. As of now there is no evidence this is a bubble, just rising prices. Happy you sold your cards at a really high price, but assuming you are able to buy them back at half the price is simply speculation.

[Bobbycee]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Great post Bobby. VCP is an absolutely critical tool for any collector (I literally just re-upped my gold membership last night), and it’s good to know that you continue upgrading the tool’s technology.

The bit about the recent investor who started off modern but then turned to vintage is interesting and instructive. I think it indicates (certainly does not determine), that ultimately, vintage baseball is king and the natural tendency for new collectors is to start modern, or with the guys they know/grew up with, but then to “take a ride backwards down the number line” to the vintage stuff. (Phish reference).

Ryan, T206 is selling quite well right now as witnessed by the frenzy of prices paid for 5's & HOF's in recent auctions. Is T206 safe from any bursting bubble in the card market? I've never seen T206 prices drop. I'm hoping, at worst, that if there is a correction in the card market, this great set is not affected much, if at all.

[Yoda]

A PSA 10 Messi just sold for #138,000, a new record for a soccer card by far. I wonder what a Pele might fetch if you could find a 9 or 10.