Anyone hesitant to buy now?

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by swarmee

The scope and scale of the bubble is like the Dutch tulip market 500 years ago...

Except the Dutch Tulip Craze, more or less didn't happen in anything remotely resembling the way we hear about it today. The card thing is real!

[Jetsfan]

John,

Thanks for the Dominguez explanation. At least I know know what to look for!

[JohnnyKilroy]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Except the Dutch Tulip Craze, more or less didn't happen in anything remotely resembling the way we hear about it today. The card thing is real!

Agreed, much different times. But one could argue that with social media, and the acceleration of growth because of it, we could experience the boom / bust on a whole new level. However, I think you are correct. There is a ton of room to grow if managed correctly. The card thing is real and there are a lot of exciting things happening. Yes, supply / demand will dictate the market. Investors are turning more to cards, like crypto currency (sites like starstock too). What I am afraid of the most, is that the bulk of people in this boom right now are not in the upper echelon of income levels. It won’t take much for an economic shift, and the bulk of your demand will start to dry up. I think that shift is coming. Again.. all just my opinion. I stick to vintage, I’m a collector, and I don’t care about the ups / downs these cards take. Although it does make it hard to spread the bank roll around when cards have jumped so much!

[buymycards]

I don't even think about buying Trout, LeBron, etc. However, there are a lot of good deals to be had right now, with pre-war, 50's and 60's cards, vintage non-sports and with many other genres. In the past 3 months I have purchased more cards than I have ever purchased during a 3 month period. Many of these were cheap enough that I am able to flip them for a small profit on eBay, and some were for my personal collection. Just stay away from the Cobbs, Mantles, high grade slabs, and watch for the bargains in lower grades. It takes a lot of time and a lot of searching, but there is no reason to stop buying at this time.

[conor912]

Do i think a correction is likely? Yes. But that honestly wouldn't stop me from buying something i wanted for my collection. I’d much rather buy now and see the value drop than wait, see prices go even higher, and get permanently priced out of something I really wanted. I’ve seen it happen and its a really shitty feeling....way worse than an unrealized loss on something I’ll probably never sell anyways.

[GeoPoto]

For the past several years, the Federal Reserve (and many of its international equivalents) has pursued a policy of increasing the availability of dollars by purchasing bonds and holding them on its balance sheet. The justification for the policy is that the enhanced liquidity will spur economic activity and job creation and there is little enough inflation that "real" economic activity will increase.

The fed's accommodative policy was holding its own (the economy was booming and inflation remained constrained) when the pandemic hit. In response to the economic collapse triggered by the pandemic, the Fed has felt compelled to "double down" on the purchase of financial assets, thereby injecting even more dollars into the financial system.

The rush of dollars provided by the Fed has pushed stocks and bonds to historical highs even as the economy has staggered, with several sectors facing existential challenges. Gold is rising and the dollar is falling, both classic advance indicators of impending inflation.

One view would be that purchasing collectables, particularly high-end items with active (liquid) markets, is a logical use of investable capital in expectation of higher (possibly much higher) rates of inflation in the near future combined with stagnant stock and bond markets.

Collectables are similar to gold -- a relatively fixed supply with a reliable hold on people's fascination. Selling stocks and bonds at historically high levels and purchasing collectables could be a prudent "hedge" strategy for a portion of a large investment portfolio.

[Rhotchkiss]

Well said GeoPoto. I very much agree

[Directly]

Many new short term buyers, young and old--when they hear a modern card offered and selling for 1,000,000 or 100-250,000 started a shark frenzy. Where did they these cards originate from--PACKS! Walmart as one example sports card shelves are bare. When restocked baseball, baseball and football packs may last an hour or two sometimes minutes!
A new rookie buyer said he didn't know anything about cards, but heard through social media, sports cards have become very lucrative and wanted in on the action! Who's driving these escalating prices --we are--if you see a Goudey Ruth card asking price 10,000 are you going to sell the one you purchased last year for 3500 for 5,000 if you don't need the money-? These are price crazy times and may only end when the buyers end!

[carlsonjok]

I am on the sidelines...sorta.

My collecting has slowed down considerably. In part due to not attending in-person shows, but also online. I only have 1 card left to finish my 1970 set (Bench) and 5 cards to finish 1968 (including the Ryan RC) and I expect that I won't finish those sets until the bubble bursts and the prices on those cards come back down to levels I feel comfortable paying. I don't even want to think about that 1955 Clemente, even though I am 85% done with that set.

I still pick up things here and there for niche parts of my collection that aren't subject to the price inflation, but that is about it.

[puckpaul]

Well said! Saved me the trouble of writing it. It’s not so much the spike in card prices but the drop in the value of dollars. There is a LOT of money out there, and in the high end, incredibly high amounts of money. I think cards will holds more value than they might seem in this spike, because there is no way to fix the dollar from here.

So buy what you like and can afford, don’t wait for a price drop in most cards.

Originally Posted by GeoPoto

For the past several years, the Federal Reserve (and many of its international equivalents) has pursued a policy of increasing the availability of dollars by purchasing bonds and holding them on its balance sheet. The justification for the policy is that the enhanced liquidity will spur economic activity and job creation and there is little enough inflation that "real" economic activity will increase.

The fed's accommodative policy was holding its own (the economy was booming and inflation remained constrained) when the pandemic hit. In response to the economic collapse triggered by the pandemic, the Fed has felt compelled to "double down" on the purchase of financial assets, thereby injecting even more dollars into the financial system.

The rush of dollars provided by the Fed has pushed stocks and bonds to historical highs even as the economy has staggered, with several sectors facing existential challenges. Gold is rising and the dollar is falling, both classic advance indicators of impending inflation.

One view would be that purchasing collectables, particularly high-end items with active (liquid) markets, is a logical use of investable capital in expectation of higher (possibly much higher) rates of inflation in the near future combined with stagnant stock and bond markets.

Collectables are similar to gold -- a relatively fixed supply with a reliable hold on people's fascination. Selling stocks and bonds at historically high levels and purchasing collectables could be a prudent "hedge" strategy for a portion of a large investment portfolio.

[samosa4u]

Like most of you on here, I once thought that prices were on fire because everybody was sitting at home, and Gary V. followers were jumping all over certain cards, the Jordan documentary ... blah, blah, blah. However, one day I decided to do a little bit of research and I realized that something was terribly wrong. I saw lots of shill bidding going on, lots of bid retractions, and of course, I don't even know how many sales were actually real! Furthermore, if EVERYBODY is sitting at home and just bidding away, then shouldn't football and hockey cards be on fire too? Most baseball cards have not gone up either.

It is my opinion that 2016 is being repeated again. Certain cards are being targeted - mostly basketball - and when this is over, oh boy, a lot of people are going to get screwed.