Anyone hesitant to buy now?

[BillMill]

Originally Posted by JohnnyKilroy

I was just talking about that yesterday. It really is crazy, like that Lebron reference post above. 100-1000% jumps in weeks if not days. I’m a new member here.. first post!!... but I also believe there’s an economic downturn coming that will definitely drag the industry with it. I saw a post on Facebook where the guy needed to sell because he was behind on car payments. How many other younger generation are jamming into this, spending thousands, without even a savings account??

I am a Lebron James and Derek Jeter collector. If his career continues the way it is heading. I expect his cards to sky rocket even more. Jeter getting into the Hall of Fame should also sky rocket. There is money out there. My take on this.

[Exhibitman]

FWIW, there is a thread in the basketball section discussing the run-up and now apparently downturn on hoops cards. Looks to me like whoever was pumping is now dumping.

[deadballera]

not hesitant but it does now price me out of buying some cards for a collector with just a limited amount to spend on the hobby

[conor912]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

FWIW, there is a thread in the basketball section discussing the run-up and now apparently downturn on hoops cards. Looks to me like whoever was pumping is now dumping.

This is whats scary about the social media age for the hobby. I’m not complaining because I know it has helped fuel the run-up, but all it takes is one bearish tweet from a guy like Gary V to sink the market 30%+.

[Rhotchkiss]

Except for pre 1941, baseball HOFers, I would be selling fast and scared as hell to buy. I think people are going to get crushed. I think all these high prices are the result of pumped up prices (some fake sales) and the influx of a ton of new and inexperienced investors. That is a recipe for disaster. I would be shorting the hell out of all of these cards if I could. This reminds me of the tech stock bubble burst.

[sportscardpete]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Except for pre 1941, baseball HOFers, I would be selling fast and scared as hell to buy. I think people are going to get crushed. I think all these high prices are the result of pumped up prices (some fake sales) and the influx of a ton of new and inexperienced investors. That is a recipe for disaster. I would be shorting the hell out of all of these cards if I could. This reminds me of the tech stock bubble burst.

I don't know how I feel about this. I agree that baseball HOFers and pre-1941 are rock solid for the long-term - it is where most of my current collection is. And yes, the prices that modern cards are going for now are clearly being pumped. However, legendary rookies (jordan, gretzky, jim brown, chamberlain, russell) which have been pumped to an extent, are worth a debate. Is their recent run-up truly speculation or is it recognition of the value in non-vintage baseball? Baseball has been the king for so long but maybe there is room for other sports? I have no right answer for this. No card should go up 10x in a year (just like no stock should), so some decline makes sense. But I feel better in the long run about vintage non-baseball rookies. I'd rather own a vintage rookie than a Kawhi Leonard (or a Josh Allen rookie). I agree that modern is a scary place, but I am still thinking about some of the vintage bubbles and whether or not that is legit.

I would compare a lot of the modern cards to the tech bubble. The tech bubble was created by wild assumptions. Buying a Giannis rookie is similar to the tech bubble; you are assuming he is a legend with multiple rings. If he fails to live up to the hype you will be holding the bag.

The other thing to mention is that the overall popularity of sports cards has grown significantly. And while some will come and go there are a lot of folks here to stay. Social media has made card collecting cool again; however, most people here don't have an instagram so they can't see that (For a while, myself included). There are other apps such as discord that make discussing cards cool as well.

[bbcard1]

I haven't bought anything to speak of lately as I try to get my head around a new pricing level. I would be scared to death to try to hold a Tatis for long-term appreciation, though I think he is a very solid player.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by sportscardpete

legendary rookies (jordan, gretzky, jim brown, chamberlain, russell) which have been pumped to an extent, are worth a debate. Is their recent run-up truly speculation or is it recognition of the value in non-vintage baseball?

A year ago the prices on the top vintage basketball guys were ridiculously low. The top five pre-1986 mainstream NBA cards are probably the 1957 Topps Bill Russell, the 1961 Topps Jerry West, Elgin Baylor and Wilt Chamberlain, and the 1969 Topps Lew Alcindor. All were dirt cheap. All could be had in presentable lower grades for a few thousand dollars, total. However, the price jumps in the last several months were ridiculous and they have already started reversing. I don't think they will fall to prior levels but we already see 40% off the top prices. Wouldn't surprise me to see the cards end up at a multiple of where they were at the start but far below their peaks.

[troutbum97]

Originally Posted by sportscardpete

And yes, the prices that modern cards are going for now are clearly being pumped. However, legendary rookies (jordan, gretzky, jim brown, chamberlain, russell) which have been pumped to an extent, are worth a debate. Is their recent run-up truly speculation or is it recognition of the value in non-vintage baseball? Baseball has been the king for so long but maybe there is room for other sports? I have no right answer for this. No card should go up 10x in a year (just like no stock should), so some decline makes sense. But I feel better in the long run about vintage non-baseball rookies.

Great point.

I've been in the market for a 1957 Topps Unitas RC in the PSA/SGC 7 range, and noticed that their auctions prices have practically doubled in less than 6-8 months. Approx $1200 to $2400+

Is this "new money"? Were they originally very undervalued? Will these soften 20-25% or so?

I'm very curious.

[packs]

I'm buying. Every so often there is this same thread with some other benchmark used as the example. Then there is the discussion about whether or not the cards have hit their peak.

I bought this Ruth for $500 on eBay. At the time, that might have sounded pretty high for such a low grade card. My advice is to always pay up when you have it:

[oldeboo]

Got a few Ryan Leaf and Trent Richardson rookie autos sitting around, just waiting to time the market right...

[sportscardpete]

Originally Posted by oldeboo

got a few ryan leaf and trent richardson rookie autos sitting around, just waiting to time the market right...

lol

[riggs336]

Originally Posted by packs

I'm buying. Every so often there is this same thread with some other benchmark used as the example. Then there is the discussion about whether or not the cards have hit their peak.

I bought this Ruth for $500 on eBay. At the time, that might have sounded pretty high for such a low grade card. My advice is to always pay up when you have it:

I completely agree with this sentiment. Every Cobb, Gehrig, Ruth, Mays, Mantle, etc. I ever bought I "paid too much for", and everyone of them looks like a steal now. Except that Frank Campos black star.

[BruceinGa]

"Anyone hesitant to buy now?"
I hope not because I am listing another 90 T206's on the bay this month.

[conor912]

Originally Posted by BillMill

I am a Lebron James and Derek Jeter collector. If his career continues the way it is heading. I expect his cards to sky rocket even more. Jeter getting into the Hall of Fame should also sky rocket. There is money out there. My take on this.

Seems to me that the Hall should be pretty well baked into Jeter prices at this point, but who knows.