Anyone hesitant to buy now?

[swarmee]

https://www.net54baseball.com/showth...ht=coronavirus

If you want to read some really interesting threads on blowout about this, the Project 2020 thread on the baseball board and the "cook groups" thread about youtube and discord pumpers will give you a good idea.

There are a lot of cards setting records and not getting paid for, which continually pushes the market higher because now there's a high "sale" recorded. Read some threads about how $2 (last year) Lebron James cards from Panini Prizm are now selling for a thousand a piece. The scope and scale of the bubble is like the Dutch tulip market 500 years ago...

[Jetsfan]

Hi John,

I am almost exclusively a vintage card buyer. Only real exceptions were Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel rookie cards (I’m a Sabres fan...ugh).

I actually was interested in buying a Jasson Dominguez rookie card. But there are so many variations, it’s almost impossible to know which is the base version. I didn’t have this trouble in 1985 with Dwight Gooden.

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by Jetsfan

I actually was interested in buying a Jasson Dominguez rookie card.

He doesn't have a rookie card yet, since he hasn't played in the majors. Here are all the cards of his that have been uploaded to COMC so far:
https://www.comc.com/Cards,sc,=jasson+dominguez,ot

Most would recommend you purchase the 1st Bowman Chrome BCP-8 as the "prospect" card to own of his, even though it's a year after his Panini cards. Your other base option is the BP-8 "paper" version, at 1/3rd of the price. If you wait a few months for 2020 Goodwin Champions to show up on Upper Deck epack, there will be a flood of 2020 Upper Deck Jasson cards on the market.

[JohnnyKilroy]

Originally Posted by swarmee

The scope and scale of the bubble is like the Dutch tulip market 500 years ago...

I was just talking about that yesterday. It really is crazy, like that Lebron reference post above. 100-1000% jumps in weeks if not days. I’m a new member here.. first post!!... but I also believe there’s an economic downturn coming that will definitely drag the industry with it. I saw a post on Facebook where the guy needed to sell because he was behind on car payments. How many other younger generation are jamming into this, spending thousands, without even a savings account??

[BillMill]

Originally Posted by JohnnyKilroy

I was just talking about that yesterday. It really is crazy, like that Lebron reference post above. 100-1000% jumps in weeks if not days. I’m a new member here.. first post!!... but I also believe there’s an economic downturn coming that will definitely drag the industry with it. I saw a post on Facebook where the guy needed to sell because he was behind on car payments. How many other younger generation are jamming into this, spending thousands, without even a savings account??

I am a Lebron James and Derek Jeter collector. If his career continues the way it is heading. I expect his cards to sky rocket even more. Jeter getting into the Hall of Fame should also sky rocket. There is money out there. My take on this.

[Exhibitman]

FWIW, there is a thread in the basketball section discussing the run-up and now apparently downturn on hoops cards. Looks to me like whoever was pumping is now dumping.

[deadballera]

not hesitant but it does now price me out of buying some cards for a collector with just a limited amount to spend on the hobby

[conor912]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

FWIW, there is a thread in the basketball section discussing the run-up and now apparently downturn on hoops cards. Looks to me like whoever was pumping is now dumping.

This is whats scary about the social media age for the hobby. I’m not complaining because I know it has helped fuel the run-up, but all it takes is one bearish tweet from a guy like Gary V to sink the market 30%+.

[Rhotchkiss]

Except for pre 1941, baseball HOFers, I would be selling fast and scared as hell to buy. I think people are going to get crushed. I think all these high prices are the result of pumped up prices (some fake sales) and the influx of a ton of new and inexperienced investors. That is a recipe for disaster. I would be shorting the hell out of all of these cards if I could. This reminds me of the tech stock bubble burst.

[sportscardpete]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Except for pre 1941, baseball HOFers, I would be selling fast and scared as hell to buy. I think people are going to get crushed. I think all these high prices are the result of pumped up prices (some fake sales) and the influx of a ton of new and inexperienced investors. That is a recipe for disaster. I would be shorting the hell out of all of these cards if I could. This reminds me of the tech stock bubble burst.

I don't know how I feel about this. I agree that baseball HOFers and pre-1941 are rock solid for the long-term - it is where most of my current collection is. And yes, the prices that modern cards are going for now are clearly being pumped. However, legendary rookies (jordan, gretzky, jim brown, chamberlain, russell) which have been pumped to an extent, are worth a debate. Is their recent run-up truly speculation or is it recognition of the value in non-vintage baseball? Baseball has been the king for so long but maybe there is room for other sports? I have no right answer for this. No card should go up 10x in a year (just like no stock should), so some decline makes sense. But I feel better in the long run about vintage non-baseball rookies. I'd rather own a vintage rookie than a Kawhi Leonard (or a Josh Allen rookie). I agree that modern is a scary place, but I am still thinking about some of the vintage bubbles and whether or not that is legit.

I would compare a lot of the modern cards to the tech bubble. The tech bubble was created by wild assumptions. Buying a Giannis rookie is similar to the tech bubble; you are assuming he is a legend with multiple rings. If he fails to live up to the hype you will be holding the bag.

The other thing to mention is that the overall popularity of sports cards has grown significantly. And while some will come and go there are a lot of folks here to stay. Social media has made card collecting cool again; however, most people here don't have an instagram so they can't see that (For a while, myself included). There are other apps such as discord that make discussing cards cool as well.

[bbcard1]

I haven't bought anything to speak of lately as I try to get my head around a new pricing level. I would be scared to death to try to hold a Tatis for long-term appreciation, though I think he is a very solid player.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by sportscardpete

legendary rookies (jordan, gretzky, jim brown, chamberlain, russell) which have been pumped to an extent, are worth a debate. Is their recent run-up truly speculation or is it recognition of the value in non-vintage baseball?

A year ago the prices on the top vintage basketball guys were ridiculously low. The top five pre-1986 mainstream NBA cards are probably the 1957 Topps Bill Russell, the 1961 Topps Jerry West, Elgin Baylor and Wilt Chamberlain, and the 1969 Topps Lew Alcindor. All were dirt cheap. All could be had in presentable lower grades for a few thousand dollars, total. However, the price jumps in the last several months were ridiculous and they have already started reversing. I don't think they will fall to prior levels but we already see 40% off the top prices. Wouldn't surprise me to see the cards end up at a multiple of where they were at the start but far below their peaks.

[troutbum97]

Originally Posted by sportscardpete

And yes, the prices that modern cards are going for now are clearly being pumped. However, legendary rookies (jordan, gretzky, jim brown, chamberlain, russell) which have been pumped to an extent, are worth a debate. Is their recent run-up truly speculation or is it recognition of the value in non-vintage baseball? Baseball has been the king for so long but maybe there is room for other sports? I have no right answer for this. No card should go up 10x in a year (just like no stock should), so some decline makes sense. But I feel better in the long run about vintage non-baseball rookies.

Great point.

I've been in the market for a 1957 Topps Unitas RC in the PSA/SGC 7 range, and noticed that their auctions prices have practically doubled in less than 6-8 months. Approx $1200 to $2400+

Is this "new money"? Were they originally very undervalued? Will these soften 20-25% or so?

I'm very curious.

[packs]

I'm buying. Every so often there is this same thread with some other benchmark used as the example. Then there is the discussion about whether or not the cards have hit their peak.

I bought this Ruth for $500 on eBay. At the time, that might have sounded pretty high for such a low grade card. My advice is to always pay up when you have it:

[oldeboo]

Got a few Ryan Leaf and Trent Richardson rookie autos sitting around, just waiting to time the market right...

[sportscardpete]

Originally Posted by oldeboo

got a few ryan leaf and trent richardson rookie autos sitting around, just waiting to time the market right...

lol

[riggs336]

Originally Posted by packs

I'm buying. Every so often there is this same thread with some other benchmark used as the example. Then there is the discussion about whether or not the cards have hit their peak.

I bought this Ruth for $500 on eBay. At the time, that might have sounded pretty high for such a low grade card. My advice is to always pay up when you have it:

I completely agree with this sentiment. Every Cobb, Gehrig, Ruth, Mays, Mantle, etc. I ever bought I "paid too much for", and everyone of them looks like a steal now. Except that Frank Campos black star.

[BruceinGa]

"Anyone hesitant to buy now?"
I hope not because I am listing another 90 T206's on the bay this month.

[conor912]

Originally Posted by BillMill

I am a Lebron James and Derek Jeter collector. If his career continues the way it is heading. I expect his cards to sky rocket even more. Jeter getting into the Hall of Fame should also sky rocket. There is money out there. My take on this.

Seems to me that the Hall should be pretty well baked into Jeter prices at this point, but who knows.

[Tyruscobb]

I’m a baseball card collector - not investor. I don’t really worry about whether my purchases appreciate or depreciate. The reason is I never sell, other than when I upgrade a card, and will die with my cards. I’ll let my heirs deal with the profit/loss aspect.

I focus on collector grades and great looking cards just below it. The current spike has moved me to the sidelines. I’m having a very difficult time finding reasonable deals. Although I don’t worry about the investing repercussions, I do want to stretch my dollars so that I can increase my purchase quantities.

Although I hate not buying, I’m still earmarking cash for future purchases. I’ll sit back and continue letting my war chest grow. Hopefully, the market will return to a reasonable level, and I can return to knocking off cards on my want list.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

I’m a baseball card collector - not investor. I don’t really worry about whether my purchases appreciate or depreciate. The reason is I never sell, other than when I upgrade a card, and will die with my cards. I’ll let my heirs deal with the profit/loss aspect.

I focus on collector grades and great looking cards just below it. The current spike has moved me to the sidelines. I’m having a very difficult time finding reasonable deals. Although I don’t worry about the investing repercussions, I do want to stretch my dollars so that I can increase my purchase quantities.

Although I hate not buying, I’m still earmarking cash for future purchases. I’ll sit back and continue letting my war chest grow. Hopefully, the market will return to a reasonable level, and I can return to knocking off cards on my want list.

Thanks for saving me the time with the great post. I'll buy anything I want but find my want lists are dwindling anyway. You would have to be a legal moron to pay these prices for new cards. If I'm buying, I'm buying vintage. Just like I did in the 1980's when all the 8 year old "Investors" and their parents got SMEARED! LOL....maybe you missed the part where history always repeats itself. Vintage will always be blue chip whether it goes up or down. New stuff will always be Tulip Bulbs. Make a note and write it down kiddies.

[toledo_mudhen]

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

I’m a baseball card collector - not investor. I don’t really worry about whether my purchases appreciate or depreciate. The reason is I never sell, other than when I upgrade a card, and will die with my cards. I’ll let my heirs deal with the profit/loss aspect.

I focus on collector grades and great looking cards just below it. The current spike has moved me to the sidelines. I’m having a very difficult time finding reasonable deals. Although I don’t worry about the investing repercussions, I do want to stretch my dollars so that I can increase my purchase quantities.

Although I hate not buying, I’m still earmarking cash for future purchases. I’ll sit back and continue letting my war chest grow. Hopefully, the market will return to a reasonable level, and I can return to knocking off cards on my want list.

Exactly the same on my end - It appears that I have the "patience of Job" - I am long past buying the 1st thing that pops up - a "war chest" is a good thing.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by swarmee

The scope and scale of the bubble is like the Dutch tulip market 500 years ago...

Except the Dutch Tulip Craze, more or less didn't happen in anything remotely resembling the way we hear about it today. The card thing is real!

[Jetsfan]

John,

Thanks for the Dominguez explanation. At least I know know what to look for!

[JohnnyKilroy]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Except the Dutch Tulip Craze, more or less didn't happen in anything remotely resembling the way we hear about it today. The card thing is real!

Agreed, much different times. But one could argue that with social media, and the acceleration of growth because of it, we could experience the boom / bust on a whole new level. However, I think you are correct. There is a ton of room to grow if managed correctly. The card thing is real and there are a lot of exciting things happening. Yes, supply / demand will dictate the market. Investors are turning more to cards, like crypto currency (sites like starstock too). What I am afraid of the most, is that the bulk of people in this boom right now are not in the upper echelon of income levels. It won’t take much for an economic shift, and the bulk of your demand will start to dry up. I think that shift is coming. Again.. all just my opinion. I stick to vintage, I’m a collector, and I don’t care about the ups / downs these cards take. Although it does make it hard to spread the bank roll around when cards have jumped so much!

[buymycards]

I don't even think about buying Trout, LeBron, etc. However, there are a lot of good deals to be had right now, with pre-war, 50's and 60's cards, vintage non-sports and with many other genres. In the past 3 months I have purchased more cards than I have ever purchased during a 3 month period. Many of these were cheap enough that I am able to flip them for a small profit on eBay, and some were for my personal collection. Just stay away from the Cobbs, Mantles, high grade slabs, and watch for the bargains in lower grades. It takes a lot of time and a lot of searching, but there is no reason to stop buying at this time.

[conor912]

Do i think a correction is likely? Yes. But that honestly wouldn't stop me from buying something i wanted for my collection. I’d much rather buy now and see the value drop than wait, see prices go even higher, and get permanently priced out of something I really wanted. I’ve seen it happen and its a really shitty feeling....way worse than an unrealized loss on something I’ll probably never sell anyways.

[GeoPoto]

For the past several years, the Federal Reserve (and many of its international equivalents) has pursued a policy of increasing the availability of dollars by purchasing bonds and holding them on its balance sheet. The justification for the policy is that the enhanced liquidity will spur economic activity and job creation and there is little enough inflation that "real" economic activity will increase.

The fed's accommodative policy was holding its own (the economy was booming and inflation remained constrained) when the pandemic hit. In response to the economic collapse triggered by the pandemic, the Fed has felt compelled to "double down" on the purchase of financial assets, thereby injecting even more dollars into the financial system.

The rush of dollars provided by the Fed has pushed stocks and bonds to historical highs even as the economy has staggered, with several sectors facing existential challenges. Gold is rising and the dollar is falling, both classic advance indicators of impending inflation.

One view would be that purchasing collectables, particularly high-end items with active (liquid) markets, is a logical use of investable capital in expectation of higher (possibly much higher) rates of inflation in the near future combined with stagnant stock and bond markets.

Collectables are similar to gold -- a relatively fixed supply with a reliable hold on people's fascination. Selling stocks and bonds at historically high levels and purchasing collectables could be a prudent "hedge" strategy for a portion of a large investment portfolio.

[Rhotchkiss]

Well said GeoPoto. I very much agree

[Directly]

Many new short term buyers, young and old--when they hear a modern card offered and selling for 1,000,000 or 100-250,000 started a shark frenzy. Where did they these cards originate from--PACKS! Walmart as one example sports card shelves are bare. When restocked baseball, baseball and football packs may last an hour or two sometimes minutes!
A new rookie buyer said he didn't know anything about cards, but heard through social media, sports cards have become very lucrative and wanted in on the action! Who's driving these escalating prices --we are--if you see a Goudey Ruth card asking price 10,000 are you going to sell the one you purchased last year for 3500 for 5,000 if you don't need the money-? These are price crazy times and may only end when the buyers end!

[puckpaul]

Well said! Saved me the trouble of writing it. It’s not so much the spike in card prices but the drop in the value of dollars. There is a LOT of money out there, and in the high end, incredibly high amounts of money. I think cards will holds more value than they might seem in this spike, because there is no way to fix the dollar from here.

So buy what you like and can afford, don’t wait for a price drop in most cards.

Originally Posted by GeoPoto

For the past several years, the Federal Reserve (and many of its international equivalents) has pursued a policy of increasing the availability of dollars by purchasing bonds and holding them on its balance sheet. The justification for the policy is that the enhanced liquidity will spur economic activity and job creation and there is little enough inflation that "real" economic activity will increase.

The fed's accommodative policy was holding its own (the economy was booming and inflation remained constrained) when the pandemic hit. In response to the economic collapse triggered by the pandemic, the Fed has felt compelled to "double down" on the purchase of financial assets, thereby injecting even more dollars into the financial system.

The rush of dollars provided by the Fed has pushed stocks and bonds to historical highs even as the economy has staggered, with several sectors facing existential challenges. Gold is rising and the dollar is falling, both classic advance indicators of impending inflation.

One view would be that purchasing collectables, particularly high-end items with active (liquid) markets, is a logical use of investable capital in expectation of higher (possibly much higher) rates of inflation in the near future combined with stagnant stock and bond markets.

Collectables are similar to gold -- a relatively fixed supply with a reliable hold on people's fascination. Selling stocks and bonds at historically high levels and purchasing collectables could be a prudent "hedge" strategy for a portion of a large investment portfolio.

[samosa4u]

Like most of you on here, I once thought that prices were on fire because everybody was sitting at home, and Gary V. followers were jumping all over certain cards, the Jordan documentary ... blah, blah, blah. However, one day I decided to do a little bit of research and I realized that something was terribly wrong. I saw lots of shill bidding going on, lots of bid retractions, and of course, I don't even know how many sales were actually real! Furthermore, if EVERYBODY is sitting at home and just bidding away, then shouldn't football and hockey cards be on fire too? Most baseball cards have not gone up either.

It is my opinion that 2016 is being repeated again. Certain cards are being targeted - mostly basketball - and when this is over, oh boy, a lot of people are going to get screwed.

[drcy]

There are two reasons price guides are unreliable: 1) Shilling and 2) You don't know which which sales were actual sales. Many surely were not.

Originally Posted by swarmee

https://www.net54baseball.com/showth...ht=coronavirus

If you want to read some really interesting threads on blowout about this, the Project 2020 thread on the baseball board and the "cook groups" thread about youtube and discord pumpers will give you a good idea.

There are a lot of cards setting records and not getting paid for, which continually pushes the market higher because now there's a high "sale" recorded. Read some threads about how $2 (last year) Lebron James cards from Panini Prizm are now selling for a thousand a piece. The scope and scale of the bubble is like the Dutch tulip market 500 years ago...

[Kingcobb]

I collect PSA 5 T206's, commons I was paying 75 to 100 dollars are now gong for $200 and up, and HOF'ers are insane. I can't bring myself to pay these prices I have only picked up 1 card the past year. If these prices continue I will probably cash out its very tempting could double or triple my original cost.

[Ronnie73]

I am somewhat sitting on the sidelines since the price increases but occasionally I still do purchase a T206 for my set when the price is super reasonable. I also collect other items such as coins and I've had really good luck purchasing rare varieties at common prices. The deals are still out there. There just isn't as many as there used to be. I'm still spending all of my monthly budget so basically I'm still staying pretty busy and I feel that the items I'm purchasing are more stable than the dollar currently is.

[Jewish-collector]

Originally Posted by Ronnie73

I am somewhat sitting on the sidelines since the price increases but occasionally I still do purchase a T206 for my set when the price is super reasonable. I also collect other items such as coins and I've had really good luck purchasing rare varieties at common prices. The deals are still out there. There just isn't as many as there used to be. I'm still spending all of my monthly budget so basically I'm still staying pretty busy and I feel that the items I'm purchasing are more stable than the dollar currently is.

Ron - Here you go. A chance to get a bunch of T206 cards at a "super reasonable" price.

https://www.sportscollectorsdaily.co...-high-auction/

[ullmandds]

I would avoid whats going through the roof at the moment...like jordan rookies...modern basketball. Blue chip vintage will be fine. Demand has caught up to supply for quality pre war stuff.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Kingcobb

I collect PSA 5 T206's, commons I was paying 75 to 100 dollars are now gong for $200 and up, and HOF'ers are insane. I can't bring myself to pay these prices I have only picked up 1 card the past year. If these prices continue I will probably cash out its very tempting could double or triple my original cost.

I believe these price increases are real and not the result of shilling, no-sales, or other price manipulation. There are many cards whose values are truly up, including PSA 5 T206s.

If you can afford them and are willing and able to hold for the long term (5-10+ years), I believe T206s, Cobbs, Ruths, Jacksons, Wagners, other rare pre WWI issues and blue chip HOFers are great investments. I have watched them increase consistently in value for 35 years (since I started collecting in the early 80's) and I do not see that changing. This is true also of Mantle, Clemente, Koufax, Aaron, Robinson, etc., but these are too "common" for me personally. Baseball cards of blue chip players will go up in the long-term. Just like stock. If you believe this, and I do, then there is no sense in trying to "time the market". Rather, believe in the investment.