Anyone hesitant to buy now?

[jjp3rd]

Good question. My answer may not make sense, but yes I think there will be a price retreat (I.e. bubble burst), and yes I continue to buy. I am a collector, and if I see something I want or need, I buy it if the price is right. I have overpaid on a few things, for certain, but I am buying to hold and I don’t want to pass up the opportunity to obtain cards that I have targeted for a while when they appear.

I know there is an investment aspect, but it’s not my problem—I plan to die with most of these cards in my possession, so their value won’t matter. My kids will be happy with whatever they get out of it.


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[midwaylandscaping]

Originally Posted by jjp3rd

Good question. My answer may not make sense, but yes I think there will be a price retreat (I.e. bubble burst), and yes I continue to buy. I am a collector, and if I see something I want or need, I buy it if the price is right. I have overpaid on a few things, for certain, but I am buying to hold and I don’t want to pass up the opportunity to obtain cards that I have targeted for a while when they appear.

I know there is an investment aspect, but it’s not my problem—I plan to die with most of these cards in my possession, so their value won’t matter. My kids will be happy with whatever they get out of it.


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Makes perfect sense here, same strategy. I put a base 03 Topps LeBron James on eBay, first eBay sell listing for me since 2010. I took the money from the sale and turned it into PSA graded 78 OPC(7) & Topps(8) Eddie Murrays, a PSA 7 66 Philadelphia Bob Hayes, a 79 Topps PSA 7 Ozzie Newsome, a 56 Topps PSA 2(great eye appeal) Roosevelt Brown from Levi 707, and a 32 inch LG Smart TV. Wanted the LeBron gone, got things I wanted that will be with me for years. Well, the tv may not last decades

[jjp3rd]

Originally Posted by midwaylandscaping

Makes perfect sense here, same strategy. I put a base 03 Topps LeBron James on eBay, first eBay sell listing for me since 2010. I took the money from the sale and turned it into PSA graded 78 OPC(7) & Topps(8) Eddie Murrays, a PSA 7 66 Philadelphia Bob Hayes, a 79 Topps PSA 7 Ozzie Newsome, a 56 Topps PSA 2(great eye appeal) Roosevelt Brown from Levi 707, and a 32 inch LG Smart TV. Wanted the LeBron gone, got things I wanted that will be with me for years. Well, the tv may not last decades

That’s a great haul! I’ve heard some of my friends tell similar tales...selling modern and putting the money into vintage. You’re the first one to add a TV, though! Great stuff.


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[pokerplyr80]

I owned a few modern cards that were up quite a lot over what I paid. I sold most of them and it covered a good portion of the CJ Jackson I picked up here. I'm still buying, but none of the cards that have experienced the huge run ups (other than a Goudey Ruth).

[seanofjapan]

I think a lot of this is explicable by people re-allocating money they would have spent on other stuff like holidays to sedentary hobbies like ours which you can do at home by yourself.

The interesting question is what happens when the pandemic ends. Do people just snap back to their previous spending habits and stop pouring money into cards like they are now? Or has some of this changed behavior become permanent - people having been turned into hardcore collectors staying that way?

Either way, I would “hold” on any major purchases now since its obviously a seller’s market.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by seanofjapan

I think a lot of this is explicable by people re-allocating money they would have spent on other stuff like holidays to sedentary hobbies like ours which you can do at home by yourself.

The interesting question is what happens when the pandemic ends. Do people just snap back to their previous spending habits and stop pouring money into cards like they are now? Or has some of this changed behavior become permanent - people having been turned into hardcore collectors staying that way?

Either way, I would “hold” on any major purchases now since its obviously a seller’s market.

Current auctions = hard to hold, especially when some of the cards won't come up again for years, and in some cases, it could be 10s of years or ever

.

[chuckw]

I’ve been assessing the significant rise in card prices over the past year (and especially the past 4-6 months) so I’ve spent some time understanding what is influencing the market and what are the biggest risks. Here are some quick observations on the market drivers:
1. Social Media Influencers – there are some very popular people on social media who have helped recruit a massive number of new buyers to our industry over the past couple of years, and especially in 2020. An investment-oriented social media influencer is someone who has a big following for their investment guidance. People follow these people for their investment ideas, and many have been telling people about specifics of good investments to make in sports cards. I can’t give you a number, but a guess would be that these influencers have brought tens of thousands of new investors to our industry. These social media influencers give people specifics of what sports cards they invested in, how much it appreciated in a short time, and what is the next hottest item. Most of the new investors have seen good results, but some investment ideas didn’t work as well (Topps Project 2020).
2. Asia Pacific and International Market – over the last couple of years I’ve watched the Asia Pacific and other international areas increase purchases and investments. This is especially the case for basketball and soccer cards. Panini has made increased amounts of “China exclusive” products and I remember Beckett commented on the increase in submissions for grading from Asia Pacific.
3. Day Traders and Stock Market Investors – this is one of the groups that the social media influencers has helped bring to our industry. It’s then a trickle-down effect on social media. They discuss specifics of purchases they make and how they have increased. This is a big movement for newer cards, especially as a player gets hot in any sport. Even the recent basketball restart was a bit crazy, as guys like Bol Bol and Gary Trent Jr. had a couple good games and their cards skyrocketed overnight. Underappreciated stars like Damian Lilliard also saw their cards spike, and any Lebron or Kobe PSA 10 card seems to increase by the week, even if it was somewhat mass produced. In summary, many of the investors in this group is looking for a quick return like a day trader in the stock market, and others are betting on good annual appreciation. In football, the increase in value in rookies such as Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson has been staggering. Young baseball stars such as Acuna, Soto, Tatis, Luis Robert and others have increased in value like crazy.
4. Gamblers – similar to day traders shifting to our industry during the pandemic, the on-line gamblers had limited sporting events to bet on. They have found success investing in players as they are heating up and sharing with others the rise in eBay sale prices.
5. Sneaker Collectors – also brought over from the social media influence, the "sneaker heads" are apparently people who always invested in rare sneakers for investments. Since a big part of their investments were basketball sneakers, they are very active in newer basketball cards.
6. The Pandemic Itself – you can’t ignore the fact that more people were home, and most investors in our industry have done well in the past few months.
7. Prospecting – I’ve noted several examples above on the influence on the newer cards that essentially are related to prospecting the next great star or prospecting that rookie and rare superstars like Lebron, Kobe, Jeter, Griffey, Mantle, Jordan, or whatever iconic great will continue to rise in value.
8. Vintage Impact – some of the investors have been looking at good investments in vintage cards, as we’ve seen the vintage high-grade and rookie card values increase considerably. One social media influencer of note has shifted a lot of focus from newer to vintage cards.
9. Retail distribution by Panini and Topps – there is a craze of mass-produced retail sports card boxes at Walmart and Target, as fairly hard to get hobby boxes are showing up at Walmarts and Targets across the US, and buyers can almost instantly more than quadruple their investment by selling the products on-line. Personally, I wish Panini and Topps cared more about hobby stores. A Walmart manager recently told me that the people who deliver sports cards to Walmarts in Pennsylvania are now bringing security people with them to restock shelves, and some restocking employees (which is an outside vendor), are stalked in parking lots and followed home. One concern I have for this movement is the massive amount of cards being produced that are expected to be more common. For example, 2019-20 Chronicles basketball came out in hobby boxes 2-3 weeks ago and some of the rookies were getting great prices on eBay, but now I can’t fathom a guess how many of the same cards are easily available in retail boxes.
10. Four Sports at the Same Time – once the NFL starts up, the 4 primary sports leagues (MLB, NFL, NBA, and NHL) will all be playing at the same time and the prospecting of who will be hot is occurring for each primary sport at the same time.
11. GEM MINT Graded Cards – PSA, Beckett, and SGC have all experienced not only an all-time high in graded submissions, but the increase of that volume is increasing at non-manageable levels. One grading company told me their weekly submissions has more than tripled since pre-pandemic and the percent increase of submissions is increasing week after week. Beckett and SGC are now charging $100 for 5-day turn around. We always talk supply and demand in business. In this case demand is two-fold – increased number of buyers of cards, and the increased number of cards to be graded. Supply of newer cards took a hit during the spring in the heart of the pandemic, which also was a market driver. You can buy a newer rookie card for $5-$10 that may have a 50% chance of being a gem mint grade, and the gem mint grade may sell for 10 times more than the purchase price. At those numbers, it’s been a good investment for many.
12. The Money Reinvested Back in the Industry. So more people making money in cards, means a lot of that money is getting reinvested back into the industry.
Just noticed I’m rambling too much. Consider the long-term supply and demand when you are investing. I think the vintage market will stay very strong for top cards. Newer cards will stay strong if buyers will keep paying 5-10 times more for Gem Mint rookies and the many new buyers stay in the game (but the bubble can easily break if the buyers move out, or the supply of newer cards increases too much). I think the backlog at the grading companies is helping prices (less gem mints of newer stuff than if they could keep up with the volume). My overall thoughts are to enjoy this bubble while it lasts and that a $100k investment is better made in a signed 1933 Goudey Babe Ruth than a 2019-20 Zion Williamson 1/1 autograph 😊. Since I’m not spending $100k, I’d rather spend $100 on a rare Michael Jordan or Mike Trout card or a vintage HOFer card than Bol Bol.