Money in the hobby

[glchen]

Originally Posted by Bpm0014

How did tobacco companies, over 100 years ago, create cards that cannot be duplicated today (with our modern technology)? What did they do then, that we can't do now?

As others have said, the printing technologies are different now. Back then, they used lithographic printing techniques and now it's more laser printing. Therefore, under magnification, you can see the print dots are different. A counterfeiter would need to bring back lithographic printing which is much easier said than done. In addition, paper stock right now fluoresces, and it did not for prewar cards. This is why using the black light test is a standard test now to determine authenticity. A counterfeiter would basically have to be able to create paper stock like they did back then or find a bunch of unused paper stock from the prewar days that is nearly identical to the card they are trying to forge. Both of these things put together make it extremely hard to counterfeit prewar cards, which is why I doubt there are virtually any that are out there. In addition, many of the veterans of the hobby do not slab their cards, and keep their collection raw. Therefore, they are used to feeling the texture of paper stock and the look of the ink, they'd catch most fakes quickly. I think people see the Black Swamp or Lucky 7 find, and they are concerned about loads of fake prewar cards being reprinted, and I just don't think that is happening.

It's much easier for counterfeiters to focus on the old style TPG slabs and flips which are much simpler to replicate. Then you could put a fake card inside one of those slabs or an altered or overgraded genuine card.

And of course, restoring, altering, trimmed cards are a problem in the hobby. I don't doubt that. However, I don't see the absolute population of the cards increasing due to counterfeiting techniques.

About the comment that in the 70s/80s, these cards just weren't seen, I think a lot of that is due to the internet now. Back then, you had no idea what was out there, and now you can just go to ebay and google the card, and you can see many instances of it immediately. Folks are more likely now to know what they have and not throw it out since they can quickly check the internet and know it is actually worth $$$$. Also with all of the auctions always going on, it may seem like there is a Ruth rookie on auction all of the time. However, the total population is still only around 100-200, which is really not a lot when you consider there are over 300 million people in the US, and even if it's only the 1%'ers that can afford these cards, that's still a lot more people than cards out there.

Anyway, I'm not saying the card market can't collapse, because it definitely can even for rare prewar cards. You can look at some of the card prices from 2007/08, and there are still some cards that have not returned to those prices that they sold back then. However, if the overall card market does collapse, I think it'd more be due to macroeconomic effects of the economy such as if we go into another strong recession as opposed to a TPG like PSA going under. Because even if the slab is now worthless, people still want the card inside it.

A couple of caveats: I make no comment on high grade cards or vintage/modern cards which have populations in the thousands or much higher. I also can't understand the current market prices there at all, so can't say where those will go.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by glchen

As others have said, the printing technologies are different now. Back then, they used lithographic printing techniques and now it's more laser printing. Therefore, under magnification, you can see the print dots are different. A counterfeiter would need to bring back lithographic printing which is much easier said than done. In addition, paper stock right now fluoresces, and it did not for prewar cards. This is why using the black light test is a standard test now to determine authenticity. A counterfeiter would basically have to be able to create paper stock like they did back then or find a bunch of unused paper stock from the prewar days that is nearly identical to the card they are trying to forge. Both of these things put together make it extremely hard to counterfeit prewar cards, which is why I doubt there are virtually any that are out there. In addition, many of the veterans of the hobby do not slab their cards, and keep their collection raw. Therefore, they are used to feeling the texture of paper stock and the look of the ink, they'd catch most fakes quickly. I think people see the Black Swamp or Lucky 7 find, and they are concerned about loads of fake prewar cards being reprinted, and I just don't think that is happening.

It's much easier for counterfeiters to focus on the old style TPG slabs and flips which are much simpler to replicate. Then you could put a fake card inside one of those slabs or an altered or overgraded genuine card.

And of course, restoring, altering, trimmed cards are a problem in the hobby. I don't doubt that. However, I don't see the absolute population of the cards increasing due to counterfeiting techniques.

About the comment that in the 70s/80s, these cards just weren't seen, I think a lot of that is due to the internet now. Back then, you had no idea what was out there, and now you can just go to ebay and google the card, and you can see many instances of it immediately. Folks are more likely now to know what they have and not throw it out since they can quickly check the internet and know it is actually worth $$$$. Also with all of the auctions always going on, it may seem like there is a Ruth rookie on auction all of the time. However, the total population is still only around 100-200, which is really not a lot when you consider there are over 300 million people in the US, and even if it's only the 1%'ers that can afford these cards, that's still a lot more people than cards out there.

Anyway, I'm not saying the card market can't collapse, because it definitely can even for rare prewar cards. You can look at some of the card prices from 2007/08, and there are still some cards that have not returned to those prices that they sold back then. However, if the overall card market does collapse, I think it'd more be due to macroeconomic effects of the economy such as if we go into another strong recession as opposed to a TPG like PSA going under. Because even if the slab is now worthless, people still want the card inside it.

A couple of caveats: I make no comment on high grade cards or vintage/modern cards which have populations in the thousands or much higher. I also can't understand the current market prices there at all, so can't say where those will go.

Agree 100%. Ever increasing prices raised the same concerns in the coin market, and truly rare, significant items are still appreciating in value (check some of the better coin books issued in the last decade or less, giving real auction values for truly rare coins sold during that time period). The same has held true in cars, where there are many examples of rare and significant vehicles passing through the 7-figure "barrier" as if it was made of very soft butter! Don't believe it? How about a 1967 Corvette, selling for more than $3 million (1967 L-88 427 model; 20 made). A 1971 Hemi Cuda convertible for $2 million plus (11 or 12 in existence). 1962 Ferrari 250 GT's selling well into 8 figures. Very limited production Jaguar XKE lightweights, produced exclusively for racing (somewhere around 12 made, and selling for around $7 million, if memory serves correctly). Fakes have also frequently been attempted in both coins and cards, with little success. Q. David Bowers, an elite expert in the coin field, has been asked how high prices can go, and his answer has usually referred to what some works of art have sold and are selling for ($100 million plus). Perhaps not so unrealistic in the somewhat distant future even in the card hobby, when you consider that the 1903 E107 Mathewson in the REA auction, which went for $144,000, was a $900- $1000 item in 1995--thus increasing in value around 150 times in just over 20 years. Amazing, or just rare and significant to the extreme in an ever growing field?

Tremendously rising prices simply make some of us nervous (as well perhaps they should, as many will inevitably be priced out of the market for the best of the best items--learn to identify those which are yet undervalued now, as John J. Pittman did in coins, eventually putting together a $40 million collection, even though never able to afford the great rarities, or "trophy" coins!), but it's just hobby growth for the most part (pure speculator/"investor" types aside). I have an early to mid '90's REA auction catalog which is just several pages of newsprint in black and white on yellow stock (an insert to SCD, as I recall). Compare that to the most recent edition, with 700+ pages of the best glossy stock available. That, my fellow collectors, simply signifies growth, and growth on a very large scale. If that growth is largely attributable to true collectors who actually really like buying pieces of the history of the game, it will not only be sustainable but continue.

I guess you can see that I am most definitively not a "the sky is falling" type.

Highest regards,

Larry

[swarmee]

For what it's worth, the ones paying vast sums for the Mint and Gem Mint HOF rookies at least have PSA's insurance policy that will reimburse them if the card is found to a forgery or altered, presuming the card was truly graded by PSA and the slab is still intact (not fake flip/switched out card/fake holder).
Plus, if you really have a PSA 9 Aaron RC, are you going to remove it from the holder and send it in again raw? If not, it doesn't matter as the PSA flip is staying with the card. And if you for some reason think the card could become a 10, you're going to leave it with a min grade of 9, so PSA doesn't reconsider the grade they've already given it.