Has (most) everything good been graded

[Leon]

Originally Posted by SetBuilder

That's because Lionel Carter was born in 1918 and started collecting cards in 1933 before slabs and computers were invented.

Had Carter been born in 1982, all his cards would have been slabbed and on the PSA registry.

Fact.

I politely disagree. Nothing against PSA but knowing of how Lionel collected he would have used BVG's authentication only service, without numerical grades, to protect his cards. He collected cards and I don't think he would have collected plastic. And saying something is "fact" as you did shows a lack of understanding.

[Touch'EmAll]

So with all these varied opinions of ours, who is willing to step up to the plate and make an educated guess as to actual tangible numbers? I listed 5 random cards in earlier thread with approx PSA pops in 5+ condition grade.

Question: How can we use these figures to extrapolate some actual surviving copies of these cards in legit PSA 5 and higher - that are not encapsulated? I started with a multiple of 5. Too high? Too low?

Do you folks really think there could be 1,500 legit 1949 Bowman Paige's (PSA 5+ equivalent) sitting around in collections by folks that refuse to get them graded?

The coin industry (PCGS company) has already attempted this "survival" for coins a) of all graded, b)mint only coins. Go check out PCGS web and check out their coin "survival" rates. Will PSA or SGC ever try to duplicate this survival estimate like PCGS does with coins?

[markf31]

Originally Posted by 100backstroke

The coin industry (PCGS company) has already attempted this "survival" for coins a) of all graded, b)mint only coins. Go check out PCGS web and check out their coin "survival" rates. Will PSA or SGC ever try to duplicate this survival estimate like PCGS does with coins?

I think one of the inherent problems with translating this to the card industry is that there are probably very well kept records in regards to US circulation numbers regarding coins. So extrapolating a "survival" number for a coin can be accomplished. We know how many were produced/minted and how many have been graded, so pulling together numbers is pretty straight forward.

But in the card industry production numbers, especially for vintage pre-war cards are non-existent. We have no idea how many were produced. When you you don't know how many were produced and distributed, coming up with a "survival" number is impossible.

[Touch'EmAll]

Look at our hobbies most iconic card - the T206 Wagner.

How many (legit copies) are still out there ungraded in someones collection that has no want to sell, and no desire for their T206 Wagner to be encapsulated? Double current pops? Triple? 5 times current pop figures?

Seems like an event for celebration and national news worthy story whenever one beater is discovered on rare occasion ever few years. But a PSA 5+ T206 Wagner ungraded - just can't imagine a whole lot exist.

[Matthew H]

Originally Posted by 100backstroke

Look at our hobbies most iconic card - the T206 Wagner.

How many (legit copies) are still out there ungraded in someones collection that has no want to sell, and no desire for their T206 Wagner to be encapsulated? Double current pops? Triple? 5 times current pop figures?

Seems like an event for celebration and national news worthy story whenever one beater is discovered on rare occasion ever few years. But a PSA 5+ T206 Wagner ungraded - just can't imagine a whole lot exist.

Most of the better examples of the t206 Wagner are un-graded. Everyone knows that. I'm surprised you don't, considering that you think you know enough to post in a thread like this.

Also, many cards are consigned to auction companies raw. The auction house will submit them to grading companies if they feel it will maximize profit. This is why all good cards in the catalog are graded.

On another note, I was born in 1980 and I think stabbing cards is totally lame, I tried it and don't like it. So I don't think you can state "facts" about what other collectors will do if they were doing their thing at a different time.

[Touch'EmAll]

I have been asking, "how many do you think" type questions - not many tangible responses from all you folks in the know, just a lot of jabs at me.

sorry - just trying to have an informative chat - guess I don't know very much

[ullmandds]

Perhaps the reason is that most of these questions have already been asked and discussed in the past. A simple search through the archives will probably give you many of the answers you seek.

Additionally many of the questions posed here have no answers. Only guesses.

[Paul S]

Originally Posted by 100backstroke

I have been asking, "how many do you think" type questions - not many tangible responses from all you folks in the know, just a lot of jabs at me.

sorry - just trying to have an informative chat - guess I don't know very much

...much in the way in the way of "jabs" toward you at all. These responses come from some very knowledgeable people. Is it possible that their responses are just not the answers you anticipated?

[birdman42]

I've been collecting since the early 80s. At the time (pre-Internet and eBay) I picked up cards at shows, from collectors, and through ads in the trade papers.

I bought things that were in the intersection between what I was interested in, what appealed to me, and what I could afford. At that time, type cards weren't all that hot--e135s, anyone?--so you could get high-quality cards for not much money. I took advantage of that.

In the years since, I've paid to have exactly three cards graded--an SGC 70 Buchner (for protection), and a couple '54 Topps (because they were nice but didn't fit my interests any more and I thought I could get more for them in slabs). My other cards rest in penny sleeves inside top-loaders. They'll probably stay that way until it's time for my heirs to break everything up.

There are two main reasons for me leaving things ungraded. First, I've learned enough about cards that I have my own opinions as to quality. Second, would I rather spend $500 to have a pile of cards graded, or to buy more cards? Duh. Some folks would prefer to have their cards graded. I've seen pics on here of wonderful displays of graded cards.

I have what some folks here would call an "armpit" collection, but I do enjoy it. Multiply me by many times, and you do get quite a few high-quality cards that are in collections but not slabbed.

Then there are the items that aren't in collections yet. Think of the "finds" from the last few years: Skydash's incredible group of Colgans, the Oregon Old Judges, etc. They all ended up in slabs. I do believe that this trend will lead to a greater and greater proportion of "good" cards ending up in slabs.

Question for those among us who prefer that their cards breathe freely: Are your convictions so strong that you'll insist that the cards be sold unslabbed after you're gone?

Just one perspective,

Bill

[Bugsy]

Originally Posted by birdman42

Second, would I rather spend $500 to have a pile of cards graded, or to buy more cards? Duh.

That says it all.

[Bicem]

Originally Posted by birdman42

Question for those among us who prefer that their cards breathe freely: Are your convictions so strong that you'll insist that the cards be sold unslabbed after you're gone?

Heck no! I just choose to enjoy my collection raw while I own it, whenever I decide to sell something I have it graded. That's just dumb to leave money on the table.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by birdman42

Question for those among us who prefer that their cards breathe freely: Are your convictions so strong that you'll insist that the cards be sold unslabbed after you're gone?

Ah, to have "convictions so strong that you'll insist that the cards be sold unslabbed after you're gone" would be a neat trick to pull off. Of course, if I could make demands on the living after I died I would be a ghost, zombie or vampire at the time so the executor of my estate would likely be too busy driving a stake through my heart and cutting off my head or otherwise trying to put me back in the grave to pay much attention to my comments about my cards.

But seriously, isn't your whole premise a silly one? Do you really expect anyone to write into their wills a prohibition on their executors slabbing their cards for resale, because that's the only way it would happen. I've seen some pretty specific estate plans but never anything as asinine as that.

[tbob]

I have several pretty nice complete sets 205, 206 minus Big 4, 207, 212-1, 212-2, T212-3 and T212-4, etc which are all ungraded. I slab all my caramels, post 1919 cards and T210s but I have many unslabbed sets and some of those cards would grade very highly. To say most of the nice pre-war cards are graded is just wrong.

[HercDriver]

I'm a VERY insignificant collector, but probably not out of the ordinary. I have a complete T205 set (208 cards), with only one graded card (Cicotte). My guess is that there are many collectors with similar numbers to that...

Take Care,
Geno

[pcoz]

I think there are a lot of cards still ungraded. But, anyone trying to guess percentages is silly. I have some raw cards, but almost all of mine are graded. I think the card companies do a great job, and I don't have to question the authenticity or damaging them. I have mostly caramels, and they're prone to chipping. So, enjoying them in a solid holder is my personal preference. Also, I think it would be unwise to buy or sell any cards that have significant value ungraded, unless you really know the provenance of the card.