T206 "ELITE EIGHT"....but then there were SEVEN

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by White Borders

A week or so ago Zach started a thread on this same topic, also without getting much anywhere

Yes, I know. I avoided getting involved in that one - there were a lot of great thoughts, but they weren't jelling into a useful formula. We could use input from someone like Scot Reader who is respected in the hobby, and has already gone through this thought process.

Also, (and I'm repeating myself here...again) I asked Jim Riviera if the info on T206Resource.com could be used to come up with multipliers to help us determine how many of each card, total, were produced, and he said, "Yes". Yet, that also hasn't gone anywhere.

No offense to any of these guys, but I'd love to see them answer some questions here and participate in discussions, rather than wait until they have a research paper published on their site (T206Resource.com), and then sending us a link. Tim, Jim - get involved in the discussions here, please.

[Abravefan11]

Originally Posted by Runscott

Also, (and I'm repeating myself here...again) I asked Jim Riviera if the info on T206Resource.com could be used to come up with multipliers to help us determine how many of each card, total, were produced, and he said, "Yes". Yet, that also hasn't gone anywhere.

Scott - You're exactly right, it hasn't gone anywhere. Jim and I have discussed several possible scenarios for ranking individual subject scarcities. I have run these buy a board member that has a more advanced understanding of statistics and applying the correct multipliers for each variant. As of right now we haven't made much progress on this project but it's on the list.

Originally Posted by Runscott

No offense to any of these guys, but I'd love to see them answer some questions here and participate in discussions, rather than wait until they have a research paper published on their site (T206Resource.com), and then sending us a link. Tim, Jim - get involved in the discussions here, please.

I will gladly discuss T206's with any interested person and do so daily. I may not get involved in every T206 discussion on the board but I do share anything I can with anyone that wants to know.

Regarding the OP my thoughts on the Schulte weren't published on T206Resource.com but are in the addendum of the REA listing.



P.S. - Rivera

[Runscott]

Tim, I'm glad to hear you say this, but the proof's in the pudding. Rather than say you will participate and answer questions, simply do it.

We've had quite a few great T206 discussions where I know you and Jim had thoughts, and I waited to hear them....and waited....and nothing occurred. An example is the discussion about whether or not the recently numerically-graded Plank could have actually been anything other than hand-cut.

Again, as NIKE would say, JUST DO IT. Your published works on your website are great. Keep up the good work.

[Abravefan11]

Originally Posted by Runscott

Tim, I'm glad to hear you say this, but the proof's in the pudding. Rather than say you will participate and answer questions, simply do it.

We've had quite a few great T206 discussions where I know you and Jim had thoughts, and I waited to hear them....and waited....and nothing occurred. An example is the discussion about whether or not the recently numerically-graded Plank could have actually been anything other than hand-cut.

Again, as NIKE would say, JUST DO IT. Your published works on your website are great. Keep up the good work.

Scott - The tone of your current post, and many before it, is EXACTLY why I do not post as much as I used to on this forum. I really enjoy discussing the nuances of this set with as many collectors as I can and I will continue to do so, it just won't be here with you.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by Abravefan11

Scott - The tone of your current post, and many before it, is EXACTLY why I do not post as much as I used to on this forum. I really enjoy discussing the nuances of this set with as many collectors as I can and I will continue to do so, it just won't be here with you.

Well, I'll go cry myself to sleep, knowing that young Tim won't be discussing nuances of the T206 set with me

And for anyone who gives a damn, which is probably about zero - back when you used to PM me, telling me how easy you are to talk with, and how much you love to share information, you beat around the bush on every single question I asked you. No, I never got a straight answer to anything - the so-called "nuances of this set" that you mention. Either you knew a helluva lot less than your groupies gave you credit for, or you were simply saving every thought you had for your website. I'll give you credit, and go with the latter.

Scott <=== man with the T206Resource.com-influencing "tone"

[Jantz]

As far as these players with Piedmont 350 backs, I've come across more Ewings than any of the other seven players (Schulte excluded).

Karger & Mullin are tied for second place.


Ted - Just out of curiosity, does the Mullin you've posted have a Piedmont 350 back? The reason I ask is because every Mullin Piedmont 350 I've seen has a distinguishing spot on the front of the card. Even the Mullin Piedmont 350 I traded with you back in 2009 had this spot.


Jantz

[Abravefan11]

Originally Posted by Jantz

The reason I ask is because every Mullin Piedmont 350 I've seen has a distinguishing spot on the front of the card.

Jantz

Jantz - Here's my Mullin Piedmont 350 for you to compare regarding the distinguishing spot.

[tedzan]

Originally Posted by Jantz

As far as these players with Piedmont 350 backs, I've come across more Ewings than any of the other seven players (Schulte excluded).

Karger & Mullin are tied for second place.


Ted - Just out of curiosity, does the Mullin you've posted have a Piedmont 350 back? The reason I ask is because every Mullin Piedmont 350 I've seen has a distinguishing spot on the front of the card. Even the Mullin Piedmont 350 I traded with you back in 2009 had this spot.


Jantz

The Mullin in the gallery shown here is a PIEDMONT 150. The PIEDMONT 350 Mullin you traded me has a tiny spot above his left arm....is that the "distinguishing spot"
that you are referring to ?

Thanks,

TED Z

[tedzan]

Originally Posted by Jantz

Ted - Just out of curiosity, does the Mullin you've posted have a Piedmont 350 back? The reason I ask is because every Mullin Piedmont 350 I've seen has a distinguishing spot on the front of the card. Even the Mullin Piedmont 350 I traded with you back in 2009 had this spot.

Jantz

My PIEDMONT 150 and SOVEREIGN 150 do not have this mark. But, as Jantz has noted, my PIEDMONT 350 does have a faint trace of this mark.

.................................................\/




Furthermore....currently, on ebay there is a Mullin with this same "printer's mark" which is quite distinct......

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1909-T206-So...-/150583220279


Is this just a random phenomena, or do only certain Mullin cards (with respect to their tobacco advertising back) exhibit this DOT ?

It would be interesting to see if a pattern exists....so, when you have a chance, check out your Mullin cards and tell us if your's has this printer's mark.

Thanks

TED Z

[danmckee]

Originally Posted by Runscott

Tim, I'm glad to hear you say this, but the proof's in the pudding. Rather than say you will participate and answer questions, simply do it.

We've had quite a few great T206 discussions where I know you and Jim had thoughts, and I waited to hear them....and waited....and nothing occurred. An example is the discussion about whether or not the recently numerically-graded Plank could have actually been anything other than hand-cut.

Again, as NIKE would say, JUST DO IT. Your published works on your website are great. Keep up the good work.

Touche'

[Abravefan11]

Originally Posted by danmckee

Touche'

Dan you have all of my contact information and I'm unaware of any questions you have asked me that I haven't been as truthful and forthcoming about as possible. Ask me a question and I will gladly answer it as best I can.

[White Borders]

Guys,

IMHO, this is one of the better technical discussion threads we've had in a while. Please don't turn it into another train-wreck over your personal quibbles with other board members. This behavior is quite tiresome. No one is obligated to participate in these discussions and no one is obligated to share information, so please be appreciative towards those that do participate and share.

Thanks so much and best regards,
Craig

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by White Borders

Guys,

IMHO, this is one of the better technical discussion threads we've had in a while. Please don't turn it into another train-wreck over your personal quibbles with other board members. This behavior is quite tiresome. No one is obligated to participate in these discussions and no one is obligated to share information, so please be appreciative towards those that do participate and share.

Thanks so much and best regards,
Craig

...as is the predictable pedestal-climbing.

The best way to get a topic back on track is to ignore the stuff you don't like. You'll find that things have a way of working themselves out.

[tedzan]

deleted

[tedzan]

Shown here, I have provided the current data from SGC's pop reports of these 8 cards. Can some one here please provide the corresponding
data from the PSA pop reports ?

Of course, there is no way of knowing from these numbers how many times these cards have been re-graded.


Subject ............. P 350 ....... EPDG ........... P 150 ...... SOV 150 ...... SC 150 ....... HINDU

DAHLEN ................ X ............. 1 ................. 28 ............. 1 .............. 17 .............. 1

EWING ................. 1 .............. 5 ................. 53 ............. 6 .............. 40 .............. 3

GANLEY ................ 6 ............. 4 ................. 48 .............. 6 .............. 36 .............. 6

T. JONES .............. 4 ............. 3 ................. 64 .............. 4 .............. 39 .............. 3

KARGER ................ 3 ............. 4 ................. 46 .............. 7 .............. 25 .............. 0

LINDAMAN ............ 1 ............. 3 ................. 58 ............... 1 .............. 24 .............. 6

MULLIN ................ X ............. 1 ................. 37 .............. X .............. 16 .............. 0

SCHULTE .............. 0 ............. 0 ................. 47 .............. 1 .............. 13 .............. 5


NOTE

I substituted " X " for Dahlen in the P 350 and Mullin in the P 350 and SOV 150 columns, since the SGC pop report shows NO graded cards
for these respective backs on these two cards.

My collection includes Dahlen with a P 350 card. And, three Mullin cards....one P 350 card and two SOV 150 cards.


TED Z

[Abravefan11]

I was asked my opinion about the Schulte being scrap. From the scans I don't see anything that would lead me to believe that it is scrap. It may be, but it's not evident to me from the scan.

[White Borders]

Originally Posted by Abravefan11

I was asked my opinion about the Schulte being scrap. From the scans I don't see anything that would lead me to believe that it is scrap. It may be, but it's not evident to me from the scan.

Hope y'all don't mind that I took the liberty of creating a poll on whether or not it's scrap

Best Regards

[tedzan]

Thanks for posting the PSA pop report data on these 8 cards. It's interesting to compare the numbers between the PSA and SGC data for the various backs.

Unfortunately, we cannot distinguish the PIEDMONT 150 vs. the PIEDMONT 350 cards from the PSA info.

TED Z

[tedzan]

There is a SOVEREIGN 150 Mullin currently on ebay that also has the " DOT " on it that I think you are alluding to........

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1909-T206-So...-/150583220279

Check-it out.


Best regards,

TED Z

[tedzan]

Originally Posted by White Borders

Hope y'all don't mind that I took the liberty of creating a poll on whether or not it's scrap

A more meaningful and representative poll would have simply asked these two questions........

Do you think this Schulte card is Hand-Cut ?

Do you think this Schulte card is Factory-Cut ?


I posted this ELITE EIGHT thread in order to stir up some thought-provoking responses regarding these unique 8 cards (9 if you include Lundgren).

But...."A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to this Forum"....this thread was "de-railed" by a frivolous poll.


Anyhow, let's get back on topic here ...... Talkin' T206's ...... is this Schulte card for real, or is it just an anomaly in the world of T206's ?

And if it is for real, where is its EL PRINCIPE DE GALES counterpart ? Until this Schulte is confirmed with the EPDG back, there are at least 4 long-
term T206 collectors who are very skeptical of this PIEDMONT 350 Schulte card as having ever been a standard production card....and, that it was
inserted into a PIEDMONT cigarette pack.


TED Z

[FrankWakefield]

That Schulte card looks to me like a worn factory cut card. I've seen a bunch of white border cards that would have the edges like that. For us to be currently unaware of a EPDG version isn't a reason for me to think that Schulte is hand cut... So I find myself agreeing with Tim, that the Schulte is a factory cut. I think he's right about that.

Seeing "T206Resource.com" in big blue letters in this thread, or any thread, is shameless... ranks up there with the incomplete acknowledgements.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by tedzan

Shown here, I have provided the current data from SGC's pop reports of these 8 cards. Can some one here please provide the corresponding
data from the PSA pop reports ?

Of course, there is no way of knowing from these numbers how many times these cards have been re-graded.


Subject ............. P 350 ....... EPDG ........... P 150 ...... SOV 150 ...... SC 150 ....... HINDU

MULLIN ................ X ............. 1 ................. 37 .............. X .............. 16 .............. 0


NOTE

I substituted " X " for Mullin in the P 350 and SOV 150 columns, since the SGC pop report shows NO graded cards for these two backs.
My collection has three Mullin cards....one P 350 card and two SOV 150 cards.


TED Z

Ted, that EPDG Mullin number really surprises me. Weird that a few showed up this year, when the pop report would indicate they are scarce.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Runscott

Ted, that EPDG Mullin number really surprises me. Weird that a few showed up this year, when the pop report would indicate they are scarce.

I have a raw EPDG Mullin for what it's worth. More than I thought apparently.

[White Borders]

Originally Posted by tedzan

Can some one here please provide the corresponding
data from the PSA pop reports ?
TED Z

Ted,

PSA pop report is now available with free registration. I've been dabbling in it but still haven't quite figured out if there is a way to break out the different series (example: It just shows total Piedmont but doesn't break out the P150 from the P350). Anyways, here is what I just pulled up (it was quicker to convert them to images than for me to try to remember something about formatting html tables!):

[tedzan]

Originally Posted by tedzan

Shown here, I have provided the current data from SGC's pop reports of these 8 cards. Can some one here please provide the corresponding
data from the PSA pop reports ?

>>>>>> Of course, there is no way of knowing from these numbers how many times these cards have been re-graded. <<<<<<


Subject ............. P 350 ....... EPDG ........... P 150 ...... SOV 150 ...... SC 150 ....... HINDU

DAHLEN ................ X ............. 1 ................. 28 ............. 1 .............. 17 .............. 1

EWING ................. 1 .............. 5 ................. 53 ............. 6 .............. 40 .............. 3

GANLEY ................ 6 ............. 4 ................. 48 .............. 6 .............. 36 .............. 6

T. JONES .............. 4 ............. 3 ................. 64 .............. 4 .............. 39 .............. 3

KARGER ................ 3 ............. 4 ................. 46 .............. 7 .............. 25 .............. 0

LINDAMAN ............ 1 ............. 3 ................. 58 ............... 1 .............. 24 .............. 6

MULLIN ................ X ............. 1 ................. 37 .............. X .............. 16 .............. 0

SCHULTE .............. 0 ............. 0 ................. 47 .............. 1 .............. 13 .............. 5


NOTE

I substituted " X " for Dahlen in the P 350 and Mullin in the P 350 and SOV 150 columns, since the SGC pop report shows NO graded cards
for these respective backs on these two cards.

My collection includes Dahlen with a P 350 card. And, three Mullin cards....one P 350 card and two SOV 150 cards.


TED Z

LEE....well said in post #39

" You can eliminate one Ewing EPDG off the PSA pop report. I have crossed it into a SGC holder.

I don't think that I need to point out that this is a big reason why these pop reports can only being taken with minimal accuracy. "

Lee



Although, I posted these SGC numbers (for comparison sake) ...... I'm in complete agreement with you regarding POP reports.


TED Z

[White Borders]

Originally Posted by Runscott

Also, (and I'm repeating myself here...again) I asked Jim Riviera if the info on T206Resource.com could be used to come up with multipliers to help us determine how many of each card, total, were produced, and he said, "Yes". Yet, that also hasn't gone anywhere.

Scott,

I've been working on this problem since the beginning of the year. But, it's a tough nut to crack and I'm still a long way from cracking it. The attached charts show some of my preliminary scarcity models, starting with linear and progressing to bounded logarithmic transforms. But I can't arbitrarily pick a model. I need a better understanding of the populations. That is what I alluded to above about exploring the "mark and re-capture" methodology.

So even though from one perspective it may appear to be going nowhere, it is being actively pursued.

Best Regards

Note - The following scarcity distribution models are examples. None have been proven accurate and they should not be interpreted as fact.