T206 "ELITE EIGHT"....but then there were SEVEN
 

Approx. 6 years ago, a number of us T206 "nuts" conducted several surveys on this forum regarding certain 150/350 series cards, which resulted in a narrowing
down of these 8 subjects as being quite unique in this series. The majority of the population of these 8 is found with 150 series backs (PIEDMONT, SOVEREIGN,
and SWEET CAPORAL). And, very rarely with Brown HINDU (Karger and Mullin have yet to be confirmed with this back). Also the Bob Ewing and Tom Jones cards
are found with the SWEET CAPORAL 150, Factory 649 (overprint) back.


http://i603.photobucket.com/albums/t...e8degjklms.jpg


I referred to these 8 subjects as the " ELITE EIGHT " because of the difficulty of finding them with the following two 350 series backs.

What differentiates these 8 150/350 subjects from the numerous other 150/350 series cards in the set, is that they were NOT PRINTED with SOVEREIGN 350, or
SWEET CAPORAL 350, or OLD MILL backs. But, quite rarely are found with a PIEDMONT 350 back. Furthermore, 7 of these cards are found with the very tough
El PRINCIPE de GALES back (EPDG). Finding these 7 cards with the EPDG back is as scarce (if not scarcer) as finding them with the PIEDMONT 350 back.

The Schulte card has never been found with an EPDG back.

Now, there exists a single example of a Schulte card with a PIEDMONT 350 back. Recently, scans of this Schulte card have become available. Several of us who
have seen this card agree that it appears to be HAND-CUT. This observation and the fact that an EPDG version of Schulte has never been seen, certainly raises
the question..... Is this card a regular production T206 ?

Until that time when a FACTORY-CUT example of this Schulte with a PIEDMONT 350 back is confirmed and/or a FACTORY-CUT example of this Schulte with an
EPDG back is confirmed....we are left to consider this lone example as...."printer's scrap".


Therefore, at this point in time, the Schulte (front view) T206 should be re-classified as an "150-Only series" subject.


NOTE

The elusive Carl Lundgren (Chicago) card was initially included in this group; but, I removed it. This subject is in a class of its own, by virtue of the fact that it
was printed with only 3 backs. And, as the above 7 subjects, its PIEDMONT 350 and EPDG versions are quite tough to find.


http://i603.photobucket.com/albums/t...n4versions.jpg
http://i603.photobucket.com/albums/t...n4versions.jpg


TED Z

Ted, I completely disagree with you regarding Mullin and EPDG - he's fairly common with that back; either that, or there was a recent horde of them discovered.

P350 Schulte
 

Hi Ted,

The P350 Schulte Front View being printer's scrap sounds like a reasonable explanation as to why only one has ever been confirmed. Are you at liberty to post the scan?

Best Regards,
Craig

Hi Craig,
The Schulte 350 belonged to Joe P and will be auctioned off by REA... I'm sure Rob can send you a scan...
Be well Brian

EPDGs
 

FWIW, I checked PSA pop report for EPDGs (883 total graded for 260 subjects = an average of 3.4 EPDGs per subject)

The # graded for the following selected subjects are:

Dahlen (Bos): 2
Ewing: 2
Ganley: 1
T. Jones: 2
Karger: 3
Lindaman: 7
Mullin (Horiz): 4
Lundgren (Chi): 8


Best Regards and Happy Collecting,
Craig

Craig
 

Here is the link to the scans......

http://bid.robertedwardauctions.com/...x?itemid=22382

Then locate your cursor on the bar to the right of the large group of T206's. The front/back scans of the Schulte will appear.

Best regards,

TED Z

Thanks Craig. Perhaps it's not a popular card to get slabbed by PSA, but I sold one a couple of months ago and saw two more in other auctions. Three in 2-3 months.

I'm still curious how PSA and SGC pop reports relate to actual physical numbers of cards in existence. I have asked this question numerous times here, but have gotten no responses. Scot Reader posted that he came up with his "T206 hardest cards" list based, in part, on PSA pop reports, but I haven't gotten a response to my question as to how he actually used them to come up with numbers. If you really believe PSA pop reports, then (again, not to bore anyone, but I'm repeating myself for about the fourth time this year), then you have to believe that many of the tough variations are no tougher than their counterparts.

Thanks Ted

The scroll bars did not show for me using Google Chrome - I had to switch to Internet Explorer for them to show up and allow me to access the scan. Here it is for anyone else having problems getting to it (credit scan to REA):

A week or so ago Zach started a thread on this same topic, also without getting much anywhere "TRUE" population of a card

I've been pondering if there is a statistical means (pun intended!) of coming up with a population estimate; perhaps some modification to a biological mark-recapture method METHODS OF ESTIMATING POPULATION SIZE -- MARK-RECAPTURE

Best Regards,
Craig

Yes, I know. I avoided getting involved in that one - there were a lot of great thoughts, but they weren't jelling into a useful formula. We could use input from someone like Scot Reader who is respected in the hobby, and has already gone through this thought process.

Also, (and I'm repeating myself here...again) I asked Jim Riviera if the info on T206Resource.com could be used to come up with multipliers to help us determine how many of each card, total, were produced, and he said, "Yes". Yet, that also hasn't gone anywhere.

No offense to any of these guys, but I'd love to see them answer some questions here and participate in discussions, rather than wait until they have a research paper published on their site (T206Resource.com), and then sending us a link. Tim, Jim - get involved in the discussions here, please.

Scott - You're exactly right, it hasn't gone anywhere. Jim and I have discussed several possible scenarios for ranking individual subject scarcities. I have run these buy a board member that has a more advanced understanding of statistics and applying the correct multipliers for each variant. As of right now we haven't made much progress on this project but it's on the list.

I will gladly discuss T206's with any interested person and do so daily. I may not get involved in every T206 discussion on the board but I do share anything I can with anyone that wants to know.

Regarding the OP my thoughts on the Schulte weren't published on T206Resource.com but are in the addendum of the REA listing.



P.S. - Rivera :)

Tim, I'm glad to hear you say this, but the proof's in the pudding. Rather than say you will participate and answer questions, simply do it.

We've had quite a few great T206 discussions where I know you and Jim had thoughts, and I waited to hear them....and waited....and nothing occurred. An example is the discussion about whether or not the recently numerically-graded Plank could have actually been anything other than hand-cut.

Again, as NIKE would say, JUST DO IT. Your published works on your website are great. Keep up the good work.

Scott - The tone of your current post, and many before it, is EXACTLY why I do not post as much as I used to on this forum. I really enjoy discussing the nuances of this set with as many collectors as I can and I will continue to do so, it just won't be here with you.

Well, I'll go cry myself to sleep, knowing that young Tim won't be discussing nuances of the T206 set with me :(

And for anyone who gives a damn, which is probably about zero - back when you used to PM me, telling me how easy you are to talk with, and how much you love to share information, you beat around the bush on every single question I asked you. No, I never got a straight answer to anything - the so-called "nuances of this set" that you mention. Either you knew a helluva lot less than your groupies gave you credit for, or you were simply saving every thought you had for your website. I'll give you credit, and go with the latter.

Scott <=== man with the T206Resource.com-influencing "tone"

Scott,

I've been working on this problem since the beginning of the year. But, it's a tough nut to crack and I'm still a long way from cracking it. The attached charts show some of my preliminary scarcity models, starting with linear and progressing to bounded logarithmic transforms. But I can't arbitrarily pick a model. I need a better understanding of the populations. That is what I alluded to above about exploring the "mark and re-capture" methodology.

So even though from one perspective it may appear to be going nowhere, it is being actively pursued.

Best Regards

Note - The following scarcity distribution models are examples. None have been proven accurate and they should not be interpreted as fact.

As far as these players with Piedmont 350 backs, I've come across more Ewings than any of the other seven players (Schulte excluded).

Karger & Mullin are tied for second place.


Ted - Just out of curiosity, does the Mullin you've posted have a Piedmont 350 back? The reason I ask is because every Mullin Piedmont 350 I've seen has a distinguishing spot on the front of the card. Even the Mullin Piedmont 350 I traded with you back in 2009 had this spot.


Jantz

Jantz - Here's my Mullin Piedmont 350 for you to compare regarding the distinguishing spot.

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-_...356%2520AM.jpg

The Mullin in the gallery shown here is a PIEDMONT 150. The PIEDMONT 350 Mullin you traded me has a tiny spot above his left arm....is that the "distinguishing spot"
that you are referring to ?

Thanks,

TED Z

Touche'

Dan you have all of my contact information and I'm unaware of any questions you have asked me that I haven't been as truthful and forthcoming about as possible. Ask me a question and I will gladly answer it as best I can.

deleted
 

deleted

Please no train-wreck
 

Guys,

IMHO, this is one of the better technical discussion threads we've had in a while. Please don't turn it into another train-wreck over your personal quibbles with other board members. This behavior is quite tiresome. No one is obligated to participate in these discussions and no one is obligated to share information, so please be appreciative towards those that do participate and share.

Thanks so much and best regards,
Craig

Elite Eight
 

Shown here, I have provided the current data from SGC's pop reports of these 8 cards. Can some one here please provide the corresponding
data from the PSA pop reports ?

Of course, there is no way of knowing from these numbers how many times these cards have been re-graded.


Subject ............. P 350 ....... EPDG ........... P 150 ...... SOV 150 ...... SC 150 ....... HINDU

DAHLEN ................ X ............. 1 ................. 28 ............. 1 .............. 17 .............. 1

EWING ................. 1 .............. 5 ................. 53 ............. 6 .............. 40 .............. 3

GANLEY ................ 6 ............. 4 ................. 48 .............. 6 .............. 36 .............. 6

T. JONES .............. 4 ............. 3 ................. 64 .............. 4 .............. 39 .............. 3

KARGER ................ 3 ............. 4 ................. 46 .............. 7 .............. 25 .............. 0

LINDAMAN ............ 1 ............. 3 ................. 58 ............... 1 .............. 24 .............. 6

MULLIN ................ X ............. 1 ................. 37 .............. X .............. 16 .............. 0

SCHULTE .............. 0 ............. 0 ................. 47 .............. 1 .............. 13 .............. 5


NOTE

I substituted " X " for Dahlen in the P 350 and Mullin in the P 350 and SOV 150 columns, since the SGC pop report shows NO graded cards
for these respective backs on these two cards.

My collection includes Dahlen with a P 350 card. And, three Mullin cards....one P 350 card and two SOV 150 cards.


TED Z

I was asked my opinion about the Schulte being scrap. From the scans I don't see anything that would lead me to believe that it is scrap. It may be, but it's not evident to me from the scan.

...as is the predictable pedestal-climbing.

The best way to get a topic back on track is to ignore the stuff you don't like. You'll find that things have a way of working themselves out.

Ted, that EPDG Mullin number really surprises me. Weird that a few showed up this year, when the pop report would indicate they are scarce.

I have little knowledge to contribute to this discussion. Perhaps I am mistaken, are you saying that the Dahlen was not printed with sovereign 350 back? I sold this Dahlen sov 350 last year. When it comes to T206 my ignorance is limitless so forgive me if it is showing now. If the Brooklyn Dahlen was printed with a sovereign 350 back perhaps there is a Boston one as well?http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=141181

Mike - After the first EPDG and Piedmont 350 printings Dahlen's team designation was changed to Brooklyn. So when the Sovereign 350's were printed this changed had taken place. So only the Brooklyn variation will be found with the Sovereign 350 back.

Ted,

PSA pop report is now available with free registration. I've been dabbling in it but still haven't quite figured out if there is a way to break out the different series (example: It just shows total Piedmont but doesn't break out the P150 from the P350). Anyways, here is what I just pulled up (it was quicker to convert them to images than for me to try to remember something about formatting html tables!):

Mike

The Dahlen in this discussion is his Boston Doves card that was issued in the 1st series. And, this card was NOT printed with a SOVEREIGN 350 back.

The fact that subsequently the Dahlen (Brooklyn) was printed with a SOVEREIGN 350 back does not translate in any way to Dahlen's 1st series card.


TED Z

Hope y'all don't mind that I took the liberty of creating a poll on whether or not it's scrap :)

Best Regards

Thanks for posting the PSA pop report data on these 8 cards. It's interesting to compare the numbers between the PSA and SGC data for the various backs.

Unfortunately, we cannot distinguish the PIEDMONT 150 vs. the PIEDMONT 350 cards from the PSA info.

TED Z

Jantz
 

There is a SOVEREIGN 150 Mullin currently on ebay that also has the " DOT " on it that I think you are alluding to........

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1909-T206-So...-/150583220279

Check-it out.


Best regards,

TED Z

A more meaningful and representative poll would have simply asked these two questions........

Do you think this Schulte card is Hand-Cut ?

Do you think this Schulte card is Factory-Cut ?


I posted this ELITE EIGHT thread in order to stir up some thought-provoking responses regarding these unique 8 cards (9 if you include Lundgren).

But...."A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to this Forum"....this thread was "de-railed" by a frivolous poll.


Anyhow, let's get back on topic here ...... Talkin' T206's ...... is this Schulte card for real, or is it just an anomaly in the world of T206's ?

And if it is for real, where is its EL PRINCIPE DE GALES counterpart ? Until this Schulte is confirmed with the EPDG back, there are at least 4 long-
term T206 collectors who are very skeptical of this PIEDMONT 350 Schulte card as having ever been a standard production card....and, that it was
inserted into a PIEDMONT cigarette pack.


TED Z

That Schulte card looks to me like a worn factory cut card. I've seen a bunch of white border cards that would have the edges like that. For us to be currently unaware of a EPDG version isn't a reason for me to think that Schulte is hand cut... So I find myself agreeing with Tim, that the Schulte is a factory cut. I think he's right about that.

Seeing "T206Resource.com" in big blue letters in this thread, or any thread, is shameless... ranks up there with the incomplete acknowledgements.

I have a raw EPDG Mullin for what it's worth. More than I thought apparently.

Mullin with "printer's mark"
 

My PIEDMONT 150 and SOVEREIGN 150 do not have this mark. But, as Jantz has noted, my PIEDMONT 350 does have a faint trace of this mark.

.................................................\/
http://i603.photobucket.com/albums/t...x150SOVx50.jpg
http://i603.photobucket.com/albums/t...150SOVx50b.jpg


Furthermore....currently, on ebay there is a Mullin with this same "printer's mark" which is quite distinct......

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1909-T206-So...-/150583220279


Is this just a random phenomena, or do only certain Mullin cards (with respect to their tobacco advertising back) exhibit this DOT ?

It would be interesting to see if a pattern exists....so, when you have a chance, check out your Mullin cards and tell us if your's has this printer's mark.

Thanks

TED Z

I agree that it looks like a worn factory-cut, but (Ted - sorry to derail slightly) I think a nicely-hand-cut version would have evolved to the same state;e.g-the Plank that everyone but the T206resource.com owners have discussed....due to my "tone".

I'm sorry - it was a dry joke that I didn't feel like telegraphing. But I agree with you again :)

You can eliminate one Ewing EPDG off the PSA pop report. I have crossed it into a SGC holder.

I don't think that I need to point out that this is a big reason why these pop reports can only being taken with minimal accuracy.

Lee

Ted et al
 

I have the Mullin Piedmont 150 with no mark.
Very interesting thread.
all the best,
barry

Johnny has a raw Ewing EPDG.

I think we'll find that mark to be common to the P350s There are a lot of tiny differences that should eventually lead to a better idea of sheet layouts.

Of course, the one with the big key to plate layouts is the P150 Ted shows. The line across the back is from a big plate scratch that I've seen on a few P150's. I'm still trying to find enough scans to piece them together.

I think Ted has a green Cobb with the line as well.

Steve B

Lee B
 

LEE....well said in post #39

" You can eliminate one Ewing EPDG off the PSA pop report. I have crossed it into a SGC holder.

I don't think that I need to point out that this is a big reason why these pop reports can only being taken with minimal accuracy. "

Lee



Although, I posted these SGC numbers (for comparison sake) ...... I'm in complete agreement with you regarding POP reports.


TED Z

Steve

I don't think I have that green Cobb anymore. I will look thru my all-PIEDMONT set and see if I have any other P 150 cards with the "big plate scratch".

TED Z

http://now.msn.com/living/0508-trex-name-change.aspx

Ted??? :)

Thanks Barry......
 

......for your input on the Mullin card. However, there doesn't appear to be much interest on that subject.

Therefore, I'll switch back on topic here, namely the PIEDMONT 350 Schulte. I have been tracking the Schulte (front view) card for the past 6 years.....ever since
a number of us T206 "nuts" started our T206 surveys on Net54. Thanks a lot to your fantastic EPDG thread in 2006. I've checked-out several 100's of the Schulte
cards in these 6 years at shows, on ebay, auctions, and pop reports. The majority of them are PIEDMONT 150. Only about 33 % of them are SWEET CAPORAL 150.
And, a handful of them are SOVEREIGN 150 or brown HINDU cards.

Since no other examples of the Schulte with a PIEDMONT 350 back have been found, in at least 6 years, suggests that this particular PIEDMONT 350 Schulte card
is just an anomaly.....it's is not an American Litho. regular production T206 card.

Some on this forum think a 2nd example of this card will eventually be found ? Well, conventional probability tells us that this would have occurred by now. It's not
as if we are searching for a BROAD LEAF 460 back or a DRUM back.....it's just your ordinary PIEDMONT 350 back.

In my opinion, it's inevitable that we will accept the fact that rhe Schulte (front view) is a 150-only subject. Which is what we originally considered that it was 6
years ago.


Best regards ole buddy,

TED Z

John

Cool stuff !

Very interesting; but, quite weird.


Best regards,

T-Rex TED