Unpopular opinion on VCP an other "comp apps"

[Belfast1933]

Jumping into the comps discussion… I find that people sometimes forget that comps change (higher or lower) over time. “You’re charging over comp…”

Sometimes true - if not true, comp prices would never go up.

As others have said - comps are a good guard rail but they are not absolute (even though they may seem so to some)

(I’ll also add that I find VCP to incredibly valuable both as a seller and collector - keep up the great work)

[Snapolit1]

I mean you could be analyzing NASA data from deep space quasars and there are going to be limitations on the data. That's not a reason to say the data is not useful. Data sets have limitations. You take note of the limitations and use the data with the limitations in mind.

There are plenty of ways of analyzing some of the data on past sales. VCP is the best source that pulls the most info together in one place. And it's very easy to use.

[dbussell12]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I mean you could be analyzing NASA data from deep space quasars and there are going to be limitations on the data. That's not a reason to say the data is not useful. Data sets have limitations. You take note of the limitations and use the data with the limitations in mind.

There are plenty of ways of analyzing some of the data on past sales. VCP is the best source that pulls the most info together in one place. And it's very easy to use.

+1

physicist?

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by dbussell12

+1

physicist?

My son. I'm not smart enough for that gig.

[dbussell12]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

My son. I'm not smart enough for that gig.

ah i was close! bet he's a cool guy -- great job to have. outer space and data sets... thats some good stuff

[dbussell12]

Originally Posted by Belfast1933

Jumping into the comps discussion… I find that people sometimes forget that comps change (higher or lower) over time. “You’re charging over comp…”

Sometimes true - if not true, comp prices would never go up.

As others have said - comps are a good guard rail but they are not absolute (even though they may seem so to some)

(I’ll also add that I find VCP to incredibly valuable both as a seller and collector - keep up the great work)

its like any other market. the more actionable data you have the better decisions you can make, but you also have to be prepared for seismic market shifts based on changes in real time behaviors/circumstances/environmental factors, et al. its actually quite interesting how well this thread intersects with the other one posted by peter about bid inflation. it directly relates to and exemplifies one aspect of how comps can be inflated and/or deflated by even small scale (or large) market actions by 'good' and 'bad' actors alike.

[Vintagedeputy]

Comps are stupid and unrealistic. These are collectibles and there is no dedicated material cost or exact number. What someone bought and sold a card for yesterday is irrelevant to what I may buy and sell my card for.

[dbussell12]

Originally Posted by Vintagedeputy

Comps are stupid and unrealistic. These are collectibles and there is dedicated material cost or exact number. What someone bought and sold a card for yesterday is irrelevant to what I may buy and sell my card for.

real estate is a strong comparison for what market comps for cards function as. like jeff said, they're guardrails/guide rails. you as an individual can subjectively make the decision to 'list' your card at much higher than the going rate for similar condition sets/houses, or you can make the decision to 'buy' your card at a much lower than the going rate for similar condition sets/houses.

either way, that subjective decision may leave your card on the market for weeks, months, or years; may leave you on the market for a card for weeks, months, or years. that's why successful brokers and agencies use comps to help buyers and sellers advocate and achieve success on the market for properties at all scales. nothing exists in a vacuum; markets of all sizes elucidate this same fundamental truth.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Vintagedeputy

Comps are stupid and unrealistic. These are collectibles and there is dedicated material cost or exact number. What someone bought and sold a card for yesterday is irrelevant to what I may buy and sell my card for.

What do you mean by the part I bolded in your comment?

[Vintagedeputy]

Originally Posted by jayshum

What do you mean by the part I bolded in your comment?

There should have been a “no” in there. I fixed it.

[maniac_73]

I’ve always been curious about how Beckett came up with card prices back in the '90s. It seemed like a bit of a chicken-and-egg situation, dealers were using Beckett to set their prices, but Beckett claimed to base their prices on what dealers were charging. So where did the original pricing data actually come from?

[Rich Klein]

Originally Posted by maniac_73

I’ve always been curious about how Beckett came up with card prices back in the '90s. It seemed like a bit of a chicken-and-egg situation, dealers were using Beckett to set their prices, but Beckett claimed to base their prices on what dealers were charging. So where did the original pricing data actually come from?

As I noted, we spent a LOT of $$$ traveling the country pre-EBay days and a good bit even after EBay really got going circa 1998 so we got prices from sales lists, from seeing what people were asking/selling at shows and stores and as I noted with phone conversations with trusted hobby sources. We knew who would tell us the truth and who would, as the expression goes, blow smoke.

Were we checking on a price of a Sandy Alomar Jr. card from 1997 Topps, well not really unless we knew he might be catching fire. But we wanted to make sure we knew what the best cards and the best players were selling for. That got more important as inserts/autos/relics/parallels took over. But we did want to know which players were very popular. A good clue back in the day was there were always collectors for Mike Mussina and Cris Carter tougher cards as they had a group of collectors. Not all semi-stars were really the same and we tried to differentiate in cases such as that.

I can tell you when I went on show/store trips to an area I did not know I would ask someone (s) I knew to tell who the market makers were and how much I could trust them. You'd be amazed as how truthful some people were on that level. Plus, in the then burgeoning NY/NJ market I knew from before I went to work at Beckett the major dealers and they were very forthright with me

And we had a team of price guide people (18 at the peak) who were similar to me in gathering prices and helping to create the price guide (s)

Regards
Rich

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by Vintagedeputy

Comps are stupid and unrealistic. These are collectibles and there is dedicated material cost or exact number. What someone bought and sold a card for yesterday is irrelevant to what I may buy and sell my card for.

So were price guides also stupid and unrealistic when they used to aggregate the comp data for us back in the 1990’s and earlier?

Clearly no buyer or seller can be forced into paying a specific price, and at times other factors / reasoning surely comes into play - but if you don’t use market data to evaluate recent prices, then I’m imagining those who might find your pricing decisions out of line whether buying or selling stands to be a higher number.

VCP is certainly useful; to the OP’s notion that it has no utility at all one would have to generally agree that the prices being paid elsewhere not tracked on VCP (whether that’s Facebook, WhatNot, a discord, the local card shop / show / flea market, garage sale…) are vastly out of line with those reported in VCP. I am only one person with a small postwar vintage collection - but at least in my experience - that’s neither true or close to being true. Some dealers will balk at the fact that a VCP average price represents a longer duration of time than just the last 3 comps that they want to use on their items because they were higher and it’s trending upward.


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[campyfan39]

Great discussion, and I am learning from the posts. I retract my use of the word "worthless." That was too strong of a word and I don't truly believe that to be the case, mainly based on some of the posts on this thread.

My original point was intended to be that people treat it like the be-all end-all, when it can't track most sales. I have had sellers send me screenshots that included prices from 3-4 years ago, or even pandemic pricing.

I do agree that the other sales are likely influenced by VCP, or more so, eBay sales, which people who have never heard of VCP use. That is a great point, and much like the price guides of the early days. Some dealers still use Beckett. Many old-timers at the shows I frequent have Beckett prices listed on their cards, and then they will deal from there.

I love to research; it's fun. If I have cards I want to buy, I will watch and track them on every possible platform for months. I keep meticulous records of the sales, even asking people what they bought things for and what they sold things for. I have great relationships with dozens of dealers and collectors, so I can do that.

I am not so presumptuous as to say that everyone should cancel their subscriptions or anything. I said in the OP that I was willing to be wrong and learn. However, I still believe the vast majority of sales are not and will not ever be reported to them. Thus, a card is still only as valuable as the seller thinks it is and as the buyer's desire to have it.

Originally Posted by jchcollins

So were price guides also stupid and unrealistic when they used to aggregate the comp data for us back in the 1990’s and earlier?

Clearly no buyer or seller can be forced into paying a specific price, and at times other factors / reasoning surely comes into play - but if you don’t use market data to evaluate recent prices, then I’m imagining those who might find your pricing decisions out of line whether buying or selling stands to be a higher number.

VCP is certainly useful; to the OP’s notion that it has no utility at all one would have to generally agree that the prices being paid elsewhere not tracked on VCP (whether that’s Facebook, WhatNot, a discord, the local card shop / show / flea market, garage sale…) are vastly out of line with those reported in VCP. I am only one person with a small postwar vintage collection - but at least in my experience - that’s neither true or close to being true. Some dealers will balk at the fact that a VCP average price represents a longer duration of time than just the last 3 comps that they want to use on their items because they were higher and it’s trending upward.


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[dbussell12]

Originally Posted by campyfan39

Great discussion, and I am learning from the posts. I retract my use of the word "worthless." That was too strong of a word and I don't truly believe that to be the case, mainly based on some of the posts on this thread.

My original point was intended to be that people treat it like the be-all end-all, when it can't track most sales. I have had sellers send me screenshots that included prices from 3-4 years ago, or even pandemic pricing.

I do agree that the other sales are likely influenced by VCP, or more so, eBay sales, which people who have never heard of VCP use. That is a great point, and much like the price guides of the early days. Some dealers still use Beckett. Many old-timers at the shows I frequent have Beckett prices listed on their cards, and then they will deal from there.

I love to research; it's fun. If I have cards I want to buy, I will watch and track them on every possible platform for months. I keep meticulous records of the sales, even asking people what they bought things for and what they sold things for. I have great relationships with dozens of dealers and collectors, so I can do that.

I am not so presumptuous as to say that everyone should cancel their subscriptions or anything. I said in the OP that I was willing to be wrong and learn. However, I still believe the vast majority of sales are not and will not ever be reported to them. Thus, a card is still only as valuable as the seller thinks it is and as the buyer's desire to have it.

great observation chris. incomplete data is what keeps us data analysts (ie myself) banging our heads against the collective wall.

you are 100% correct. incomplete information regarding sales and the failure to capture all data, all information, incomplete data sets, etc to me fundamentally characterizes the human condition. we have to do the best with what we have; hopefully develop relationships and mutual contextual understanding to build trust with one another and open ourselves up to and respect when people are able to see things that we can't or don't see ourselves.

this is the big issue with markets in my opinion. they operate best in mutual good faith. if the seller wants me to succeed and i want the seller to succeed, we are in prime position to mutually benefit from the transaction. but because of things like obscured market information or data, as well as people who wish to exploit others for their perceived own personal gain, we have a lot of difficulty discerning truth or creating environments of mutual benefit.

if sales are not reported or captured and introduced into data sets, we are working with the best we have. and as we so often see in humanity throughout history, the best we have is often a fair distance from the objective reality or the truth...

[markf31]

Originally Posted by Vintagedeputy

Comps are stupid and unrealistic. These are collectibles and there is dedicated material cost or exact number. What someone bought and sold a card for yesterday is irrelevant to what I may buy and sell my card for.

How do you determine what a fair price is when you're buying or selling?

I think the term "comps" has a bad reputation. If you walk around a card show and decide to buy a card from the dealer who offers the best price on that card, you've used "comps".

If you have bought 10 T206 commons all in a similar condition over the past month for between $70-80 and you decline to buy another similar T206 today for $120 because you feel it's too much, you're using "comps".

If what you bought a card for influences what you try to sell that card for, you're using a "comp".

[Kidnapped18]

VCP is a tool. It is one of many tools to use at your disposal if you choose to and is not worthless. When valuing and evaluating what price to pay for cards you must use many different tools and factors not just one. Comps and previous prices for same/similar grade are a useful guide but nothing is set in stone until buyer and seller agree on final price.

[Exhibitman]

The utility of any tool depends on the purpose of the user.

Objectively rare cards do not transact enough for comps on them to be meaningful. I recently offered a card for sale that had not sold anywhere in any format in several years.

Mainstream postwar cards are common enough that comps are a reference point but eye appeal is more important. A fugly 7 is not worth as much as a blazing 6.

Modern cards are so commoditized that comps are ubiquitous because there are a ton of them and they all basically look the same.

[Baseballcrazy62]

Big VCP fan. It’s a great tool and I’m on it every day!

[Vintagedeputy]

Originally Posted by markf31

How do you determine what a fair price is when you're buying or selling?

.

I rarely sell any of my cards but buying is easy - I determine what the value is to me. I’m not concerned with what someone else valued a similar card at yesterday.

Value of a specific collectible is determined by a buyer and seller at that moment. If I buy a 52 Topps Mantle at a garage sale for 50 cents, the value of that exact card is 50 cents because that’s what I paid in cash for it. If I sell that same card for 1 million dollars, then the value of that specific card is now 1 million dollars because someone paid me that amount in cash.

[dbussell12]

Originally Posted by Vintagedeputy

I rarely sell any of my cards but buying is easy - I determine what the value is to me. I’m not concerned with what someone else valued a similar card at yesterday.

Value of a specific collectible is determined by a buyer and seller at that moment. If I buy a 52 Topps Mantle at a garage sale for 50 cents, the value of that exact card is 50 cents because that’s what I paid in cash for it. If I sell that same card for 1 million dollars, then the value of that specific card is now 1 million dollars because someone paid me that amount in cash.

throwing ethics out the window, you of course are 'allowed' to operate this way as an individual (because our legal system doesn't punish economic exploitation as long as it conforms to a few very basic marketplace regulations) but this isn't how market dynamics work. in accordance with that, you waive your right to be disappointed when your expectations fail to conform with reality in most cases -- which means a failure to get what you want, whether its money for your card, or a card for your money.

this logic model collapses quickly and consistently in a collective marketplace where you are forced to contend with real world factors such as objectively constituted, framed and reframed market valuation as a shifting valuation at a global level over time. it has nothing to do with what you think anything is worth. you are a node in that global market; your behavior is either an outlier (which is buying a mantle for 50 cents, or selling it for 500m$ -- both of which would be taking advantage of someone else's market ignorance), or you conform to the market at large by offering fair going rates and standards for your products and services: again, in conformity to the global market. markets determine value as an ecosystem; market valuation is a reality. just because you are able to buy, lets say, a 30k card for 5 cents at a garage sale from an unaware seller -- or sell it for 1m to an unaware buyer, this is a predatory approach -- created on a case by case basis by a buyer or seller who is dictating terms in a pseudo-vacuum to an unaware buyer or seller. i don't think it needs much explaining why it is predatory to buy a '52 mantle from an elderly woman for 50 cents at a garage sale then turn around and sell it for whatever amount.

you are, in both circumstances, willfully taking advantage of unaware buyers and sellers under the guise of 'the card is worth what its worth to me'. this is why being educated in economics is important in the current climate, because good faith isn't enough. this is why i advise that buyers and sellers of any good or service become educated in the going rates in their respective industries to avoid being taken advantage of. unfortunately, this kind of behavior is and can be quite common.

^^ this post is not meant to be offensive, but to speak directly from a deep economical foundation. i hope none is taken; cheers!

[Vintagedeputy]

Originally Posted by dbussell12

throwing ethics out the window, you of course are 'allowed' to operate this way as an individual (because our legal system doesn't punish economic exploitation as long as it conforms to a few very basic marketplace regulations) but this isn't how market dynamics work. in accordance with that, you waive your right to be disappointed when your expectations fail to conform with reality in most cases -- which means a failure to get what you want, whether its money for your card, or a card for your money.

this logic model collapses quickly and consistently in a collective marketplace where you are forced to contend with real world factors such as objectively constituted, framed and reframed market valuation as a shifting valuation at a global level over time. it has nothing to do with what you think anything is worth. you are a node in that global market; your behavior is either an outlier (which is buying a mantle for 50 cents, or selling it for 500m$ -- both of which would be taking advantage of someone else's market ignorance), or you conform to the market at large by offering fair going rates and standards for your products and services: again, in conformity to the global market. markets determine value as an ecosystem; market valuation is a reality. just because you are able to buy, lets say, a 30k card for 5 cents at a garage sale from an unaware seller -- or sell it for 1m to an unaware buyer, this is a predatory approach -- created on a case by case basis by a buyer or seller who is dictating terms in a pseudo-vacuum to an unaware buyer or seller. i don't think it needs much explaining why it is predatory to buy a '52 mantle from an elderly woman for 50 cents at a garage sale then turn around and sell it for whatever amount.

you are, in both circumstances, willfully taking advantage of unaware buyers and sellers under the guise of 'the card is worth what its worth to me'. this is why being educated in economics is important in the current climate, because good faith isn't enough. this is why i advise that buyers and sellers of any good or service become educated in the going rates in their respective industries to avoid being taken advantage of. unfortunately, this kind of behavior is and can be quite common.

^^ this post is not meant to be offensive, but to speak directly from a deep economical foundation. i hope none is taken; cheers!

This reads like an economics textbook.

If I find a 52 Mantle at a garage sale and the seller wants 50 cents, how am I taking advantage of them? I gave them their asking price. I also collect vintage Pyrex and depression glass. If I buy a Pyrex dish for $1 at a yard sale and I value it at $30, am I taking advantage of anyone? Nope.

If the “fair market value” of a card is $10 and two buyers get into a frenzy and the winner pays $500, is that the FMV now for that card? No, it’s what the winning buyer felt that the value of THAT card was TO HIM at THAT MOMENT in time, otherwise he wouldn’t have paid that amount.

[John1941]

Originally Posted by Vintagedeputy

Value of a specific collectible is determined by a buyer and seller at that moment. If I buy a 52 Topps Mantle at a garage sale for 50 cents, the value of that exact card is 50 cents because that’s what I paid in cash for it. If I sell that same card for 1 million dollars, then the value of that specific card is now 1 million dollars because someone paid me that amount in cash.

If I buy a 1990 Fleer Jose Uribe for $30,000 that doesn't mean it's worth $30,000, and if I buy a 1952 Mantle for 50 cents that doesn't mean it's worth 50 cents. The value of a specific collectible is its market price - the equilibrium price at which buyers are willing to buy it and sellers are willing to sell it in general.

That's a basic explanation which obviously doesn't work well for rare cards - but for cards like a 1952 Mantle, the market is what determines the price of a card - the general trend of sales, not a single sale.

[dbussell12]

Originally Posted by John1941

If I buy a 1990 Fleer Jose Uribe for $30,000 that doesn't mean it's worth $30,000, and if I buy a 1952 Mantle for 50 cents that doesn't mean it's worth 50 cents. The value of a specific collectible is its market price - the equilibrium price at which buyers are willing to buy it and sellers are willing to sell it in general.

That's a basic explanation which obviously doesn't work well for rare cards - but for cards like a 1952 Mantle, the market is what determines the price of a card - the general trend of sales, not a single sale.

well said; a 52 mantle is a great example of market determination precisely because it is a prominent, (relatively) widely available [compared to many other very, very scarce cards] and well documented good

[Vintagedeputy]

Originally Posted by John1941

If I buy a 1990 Fleer Jose Uribe for $30,000 that doesn't mean it's worth $30,000, and if I buy a 1952 Mantle for 50 cents that doesn't mean it's worth 50 cents. The value of a specific collectible is its market price - the equilibrium price at which buyers are willing to buy it and sellers are willing to sell it in general.

That's a basic explanation which obviously doesn't work well for rare cards - but for cards like a 1952 Mantle, the market is what determines the price of a card - the general trend of sales, not a single sale.

If you buy a 1990 Jose Uribe for $30,000, then the value of that specific card (the one in your hands) to you is $30,000 because that’s what you paid for it in cash. That doesn’t mean that every 1990 Uribe is worth $30,000…just the one you chose to drop 30K on.

[campyfan39]

This is how I feel.
When I started this thread, I never imagined a VCP rep or owner (IDK)would be on here. Net 54 is awesome!

This board is great, but my original point still stands, especially for raw cards. They cannot track most sales that occur.
I only collect pure (raw) and have cracked out hundreds. I cracked out a 1952 Mathews two days ago for my permanent collection. That skews all of their data IMO, especially if I ever sell it.

Originally Posted by Vintagedeputy

I rarely sell any of my cards but buying is easy - I determine what the value is to me. I’m not concerned with what someone else valued a similar card at yesterday.

Value of a specific collectible is determined by a buyer and seller at that moment. If I buy a 52 Topps Mantle at a garage sale for 50 cents, the value of that exact card is 50 cents because that’s what I paid in cash for it. If I sell that same card for 1 million dollars, then the value of that specific card is now 1 million dollars because someone paid me that amount in cash.