Why has Cobb gone to the moon

[Leon]

Originally Posted by calvindog

I'm primarily a Cobb collector and I think Cobb has come down significantly of late. If you check the prices on Cobb Dietche and Wolverine PCs, I think you'd see that they've gone down a good amount over the past couple years, partly due to the market coming down and partly due to too many coming up for sale lately. Rare Cobb cards certainly still set records, but oftentimes they don't anymore.

The rare stuff still sells high and sets records but the easier to get PCs are lower than what they had been at. Of course, if I'm bidding on it, a new record will be set every single time, guaranteed.

It's really about supply in demand here, Jeff. And I am one to argue that supply has little to do with value (most times)...but in this case of the Cobby PC's, I do believe that supply caught up with demand. Too many of the PC's you mentioned have hit the market in too short of a time.
.

And yes, it seems when we are bidding ourselves, things go really high.

[Snapolit1]

Maybe I’m just suffering from that classic delusion that every card and stock I don’t own goes up in a straight line.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Maybe I’m just suffering from that classic delusion that every card and stock I don’t own goes up in a straight line.

Of course, we all suffer from this. It's maddening. And naturally, every card we buy is at the top of the market it seems too. Here's two recent Cobb buys at record prices. I never get a break.

[Huck]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Maybe I’m just suffering from that classic delusion that every card and stock I don’t own goes up in a straight line.

So true! I feel your pain, especially on the stock side of the equation.

[Exhibitman]

Certain other markets may be sucking the wind out of cards. The stock market keeps hitting record highs, so no one is realizing their gains and putting their winnings into cards. Residential real estate in certain areas is also way up. The median house price in Los Angeles os $900,000, which is a crazy high record. No one there is having a windfall selling because mortgage rates are so high to replace a sold home--inventory is way down, and the 'treats' that sellers might buy are not getting bought. Commercial real estate (offices) is a cash flow investment (primarily) but is in the toilet, so the cash flow from those investments is gone and that may also be exerting a downdraft on higher end cards. I know of quite a few big time card buyers whose primary livings are in that sector and they aren't buying. Then, of course, there is the perception of value question. A collector with a highly appreciated collection doesn't see a card that he paid $1800 for as a $10,000 card, even if it down from $16,000 a year ago. I know i fall into that mindset and simply cannot bring myself to buy high-demand cards that are 4x or more above where they were several years ago. I know I've stopped seriously shopping for those cards and have instead been focusing on cards that are objectively rare instead. My last 2 big pick-ups have all been of that nature: a signed Joe Louis Exhibit card and a signed 1972 STP Richard Petty card.

It doesn't take a lot to crush the market even for Cobb or Ruth when the pool of collectors able to afford big cards is a relatively small number of people to begin with.

[Johnny630]

The T206 Cobbs have considerably come down since 2021-22…..a lot of dealers and consignment guys are loaded with them at shows…still asking 2021-22 prices and their sitting with show after show.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

The T206 Cobbs have considerably come down since 2021-22…..a lot of dealers and consignment guys are loaded with them at shows…still asking 2021-22 prices and their sitting with show after show.

Yep, using the 707 method. Trying to dollar cost average

[Touch'EmAll]

How about the condition ? Are the Cobb's dealers are sitting on heavy in the grade 1-3 condition, how many seem available in mid grade 4-5 condition, and then high end grade 6+ condition? Same question on centering - are the 70/30, 65/35 stagnant, or are the decent centered 60/40 ish stuff also sitting? Then what about the nicely centered 60/40 and better Cobb cards - are they in high demand and don't last long in showcases or also stagnant ?

I have read quite a bit that folks are primarily only after the nice for the grade cards, and just walking by the lesser for the grade cards.

[tjisonline]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

The T206 Cobbs have considerably come down since 2021-22…..a lot of dealers and consignment guys are loaded with them at shows…still asking 2021-22 prices and their sitting with show after show.

Are you seeing this with all four styles?

[The Detroit Collector]

I understand the argument with why other players are not as high as Cobb. He has come down over the years but is still quite expensive if you're looking for a good example.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by tjisonline

Are you seeing this with all four styles?

Yup

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Certain other markets may be sucking the wind out of cards. The stock market keeps hitting record highs, so no one is realizing their gains and putting their winnings into cards. Residential real estate in certain areas is also way up. The median house price in Los Angeles is $900,000, which is a crazy high record. No one there is having a windfall selling because mortgage rates are so high to replace a sold home--inventory is way down, and the 'treats' that sellers might buy are not getting bought. Commercial real estate (offices) is a cash flow investment (primarily) but is in the toilet, so the cash flow from those investments is gone and that may also be exerting a downdraft on higher end cards. I know of quite a few big time card buyers whose primary livings are in that sector and they aren't buying.

I thought L.A. was supposed to be in the toilet--I've seen the pictures of the homeless encampments, why would anyone want to live THERE? I thought everyone was supposed to be moving to Nevada, Utah, Texas, Arizona, etc.. Seems like you could do pretty well selling your 900K cottage and getting the same house for half that just a state or two away, leaving a big pot of cash to spend on cards or anything else. And what about the "wealth effect" that would have people splurging because their stocks, houses, crypto, cards, etc., have gone through the roof? As with the political scene, there seem to be some disconnects going on that I don't understand.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

I thought L.A. was supposed to be in the toilet--I've seen the pictures of the homeless encampments, why would anyone want to live THERE? I thought everyone was supposed to be moving to Nevada, Utah, Texas, Arizona, etc.. Seems like you could do pretty well selling your 900K cottage and getting the same house for half that just a state or two away, leaving a big pot of cash to spend on cards or anything else. And what about the "wealth effect" that would have people splurging because their stocks, houses, crypto, cards, etc., have gone through the roof? As with the political scene, there seem to be some disconnects going on that I don't understand.

The reason prices are so high is that more people want to live here than not because Los Angeles is one of the great destination cities of the world. The population is staying in droves. Otherwise, the free market would depress prices.

i don't know what propaganda you are reading about L.A. but clearly whoever is spewing it has an agenda and facts be damned. The City of Los Angeles is over 500 square miles. For comparison, Manhattan is 23 square miles and 13 miles in length, and the state of Rhode Island is 1214 square miles. The skid row homeless encampments that all of the people shit-posting L.A. focus on is a small area about 20 miles from where I live. In other words, nearly two Manhattans away, and with a mountain range between us and them. As for moving to a cheaper state, uhh, no thanks. They do not offer the vibrant lifestyle, magnificent weather, and diversity that we have here. And no beaches inland.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

The reason prices are so high is that more people want to live here than not because Los Angeles is one of the great destination cities of the world. The population is staying in droves. Otherwise, the free market would depress prices. I don't know what propaganda you are reading about L.A. but clearly whoever is spewing it has an agenda and facts be damned. The City of Los Angeles is over 500 square miles. For comparison, Manhattan is 23 square miles and 13 miles in length, and the state of Rhode Island is 1214 square miles. The skid row homeless encampments that all of the people shit-posting L.A. focus on is a small area about 20 miles from where I live. In other words, nearly two Manhattans away, and with a mountain range between us and them. As for moving to a cheaper state, uhh, no thanks. They do not offer the vibrant lifestyle, magnificent weather, and diversity that we have here. And no beaches inland.

Of course, Adam, and thank you. Same with the shit-posting about NYC, D.C., S.F., and anywhere else right-wing nut jobs try to claim are wastelands of crime, poverty, fleeing populations, etc. "Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded," in the words of our Shakespeare, Yogi. I wouldn't live where most of those lying clowns do if you paid me.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

The reason prices are so high is that more people want to live here than not because Los Angeles is one of the great destination cities of the world. The population is staying in droves. Otherwise, the free market would depress prices.

i don't know what propaganda you are reading about L.A. but clearly whoever is spewing it has an agenda and facts be damned. The City of Los Angeles is over 500 square miles. For comparison, Manhattan is 23 square miles and 13 miles in length, and the state of Rhode Island is 1214 square miles. The skid row homeless encampments that all of the people shit-posting L.A. focus on is a small area about 20 miles from where I live. In other words, nearly two Manhattans away, and with a mountain range between us and them. As for moving to a cheaper state, uhh, no thanks. They do not offer the vibrant lifestyle, magnificent weather, and diversity that we have here. And no beaches inland.

What he said. I've been on a nice Cobb run myself. Prices are staggering.

California's been good to me
Hope it don't fall into the sea
Sometimes you got to save yourself
It ain't like anywhere else
It ain't like anywhere else

Sundown, red skies
Nobody's been around
Sundown, blue eyes
I kinda like this party town

California's treated me good
I pray to God that the hills flood
Sometimes you got to trust yourself
It ain't like anywhere else

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by Leon

It's really about supply in demand here, Jeff. And I am one to argue that supply has little to do with value (most times)...but in this case of the Cobby PC's, I do believe that supply caught up with demand. Too many of the PC's you mentioned have hit the market in too short of a time.
.

And yes, it seems when we are bidding ourselves, things go really high.

That's really it. When the market gets flooded with cards that have run up a lot of late, due to everyone trying to cash in, eventually they start to get lower prices. Too many people who wanted them are off the battlefield so to speak. For example, just going by VCP, there were 12 public sales of a Cobb Wolverine batting PC from the beginning of 2009 through the end of 2021 -- 13 full years, 12 sales. From 2022 until today, just 2 1/2 years, there have been 11 public sales. Not surprisingly, the cards sold for significantly more when they hit the market again at the beginning of 2022 than for what they are getting presently.