Why has Cobb gone to the moon
 

5 years ago you could buy Cobb postcards etc. very reasonable. Now he seems to be the focus of a lot of auctions. Why did the turn so dramatically. It’s not like informed collectors woke up one day and realized he was a legendary player. There’s been no similar arc for Walter Johnson or even my man Lou.

Feels like real estate. A nice neighborhood for years and then all of a sudden it comes a big deal overnight and people are storming the front gates in a frenzy.

Are we basically sheep just waiting for someone or something to show us the way?

money

Yeah, but I suspect Cobb stuff is still running at a time where a lot of other top echelon guys have clearly stalled or regressed a bit.

Is Cobb's price escalation really that different than the game's other icons? Look at what Ruth and Jackie stuff was going for five years ago, and what it is going for now.

The last five years have seen a boom in stocks, housing, crypto. There is a lot of money sloshing around because of that.

I dont see Ruth right now obliterating records in every auction. Maybe in summer 2021. In another thread Leon just commented that the amazing Ruth 21 Exhibits card has come down.

I'm primarily a Cobb collector and I think Cobb has come down significantly of late. If you check the prices on Cobb Dietche and Wolverine PCs, I think you'd see that they've gone down a good amount over the past couple years, partly due to the market coming down and partly due to too many coming up for sale lately. Rare Cobb cards certainly still set records, but oftentimes they don't anymore.

The rare stuff still sells high and sets records but the easier to get PCs are lower than what they had been at. Of course, if I'm bidding on it, a new record will be set every single time, guaranteed.

They have definitely come down. a 2 Wolverine batting Cobb went for ~$45k at the start of 2022; now, you can have one in the mid-$20s. That being said, you could have had one for probably $5k in 2015!

I think most vintage that comes up more than a few times a year is down. Whether it be a Wolverine Cobb or an m116 Wagner. That has less to do with weakness in vintage - in my opinion - and more to do with prices coming back to more realistic levels after a very strong runup.

Great time to buy though for those that want to acquire pieces that may have been difficult a year or two ago!

It's really about supply in demand here, Jeff. And I am one to argue that supply has little to do with value (most times)...but in this case of the Cobby PC's, I do believe that supply caught up with demand. Too many of the PC's you mentioned have hit the market in too short of a time.
.

And yes, it seems when we are bidding ourselves, things go really high.

Maybe I’m just suffering from that classic delusion that every card and stock I don’t own goes up in a straight line.

That's really it. When the market gets flooded with cards that have run up a lot of late, due to everyone trying to cash in, eventually they start to get lower prices. Too many people who wanted them are off the battlefield so to speak. For example, just going by VCP, there were 12 public sales of a Cobb Wolverine batting PC from the beginning of 2009 through the end of 2021 -- 13 full years, 12 sales. From 2022 until today, just 2 1/2 years, there have been 11 public sales. Not surprisingly, the cards sold for significantly more when they hit the market again at the beginning of 2022 than for what they are getting presently.

100% agree.

Most Cobb stuff is down (and in some cases a good deal down) from 2022.

Of course, we all suffer from this. It's maddening. And naturally, every card we buy is at the top of the market it seems too. Here's two recent Cobb buys at record prices. I never get a break. :)

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/...172557fb_c.jpg

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/...f174fc66_z.jpg

Pink Floyd.

Cobb was one of, if not the, all-time best. He also wasn't a bad guy, no worse than any of his contemporaries. I think those sentiments are gaining traction for whatever reasons.

I'm certainly glad I got my t205 and George Close Candy Ty Cobb cards and signed ball years ago more reasonably.

There are many more people who have learned that Cobb wasn’t the maniac persona created by liar Al Stump.

Agree as I follow Cobb sales. Seems like I always lose out on the new records set, late at night. For long term holds, Cobb has to be up there for top 3 players in all sports to collect.

Here are some pics of Cobb that never get shown. Not the racist that Ken Burns and his "experts" made him out to be. The least Burns can do for Cobb is do an actual documentary about Cobb that deals with facts. I attached a Youtube video that Charles Leershen, author of Ty Cobb: A Terrible Beauty, gave a lecture about his findings about Cobb and the lies that were printed about him. Love how he pretty much calls Ken Burns a hack. It's an hour long but worth every second as the video gets right to the point and keeps you engaged.

Charles Leershen Lecture
https://youtu.be/OjbPzoboilM

https://i.postimg.cc/Fsyh4Y4p/ty-cobb-hank-aaron.webp
https://i.postimg.cc/gkWPNGZZ/ty-cobb-mays.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/P5fnnKKf/ty-cobb.jpg

I would have to agree with what others have stated--the prices for a lot of the Cobb cards are down. But I am seeing that with Ruth, Gehrig, Mantle, Robinson, Aaron, etc. Not sure how the OP was not seeing the same thing.

Unless it is a card that rarely comes up for sale, expect the price to be lower in 2024 than it was in 2021/2022.

So true! I feel your pain, especially on the stock side of the equation.

Certain other markets may be sucking the wind out of cards. The stock market keeps hitting record highs, so no one is realizing their gains and putting their winnings into cards. Residential real estate in certain areas is also way up. The median house price in Los Angeles os $900,000, which is a crazy high record. No one there is having a windfall selling because mortgage rates are so high to replace a sold home--inventory is way down, and the 'treats' that sellers might buy are not getting bought. Commercial real estate (offices) is a cash flow investment (primarily) but is in the toilet, so the cash flow from those investments is gone and that may also be exerting a downdraft on higher end cards. I know of quite a few big time card buyers whose primary livings are in that sector and they aren't buying. Then, of course, there is the perception of value question. A collector with a highly appreciated collection doesn't see a card that he paid $1800 for as a $10,000 card, even if it down from $16,000 a year ago. I know i fall into that mindset and simply cannot bring myself to buy high-demand cards that are 4x or more above where they were several years ago. I know I've stopped seriously shopping for those cards and have instead been focusing on cards that are objectively rare instead. My last 2 big pick-ups have all been of that nature: a signed Joe Louis Exhibit card and a signed 1972 STP Richard Petty card.

It doesn't take a lot to crush the market even for Cobb or Ruth when the pool of collectors able to afford big cards is a relatively small number of people to begin with.

The T206 Cobbs have considerably come down since 2021-22…..a lot of dealers and consignment guys are loaded with them at shows…still asking 2021-22 prices and their sitting with show after show.

Yep, using the 707 method. Trying to dollar cost average

How about the condition ? Are the Cobb's dealers are sitting on heavy in the grade 1-3 condition, how many seem available in mid grade 4-5 condition, and then high end grade 6+ condition? Same question on centering - are the 70/30, 65/35 stagnant, or are the decent centered 60/40 ish stuff also sitting? Then what about the nicely centered 60/40 and better Cobb cards - are they in high demand and don't last long in showcases or also stagnant ?

I have read quite a bit that folks are primarily only after the nice for the grade cards, and just walking by the lesser for the grade cards.

Generally speaking, supply is greater than demand right now. Buyers can opt to ignore lower graded examples, where they might not have in 2019 to 2021/22 and can wait to buy nicer examples. The strength in the market is in rarity based either on condition or availability of the particular card.

For about 12-18 months, Cobbs went crazy. They've definitely reversed course as of late but still generally above a few years ago. Many of them aren't terribly scarce so seeing dozens of them at most auctions and card shows is the current norm. It'll normalize at some point and maybe it already has.

Those go to auction ……and are generally softer in price than would have been in 2021-22.

Are you seeing this with all four styles?

I thought L.A. was supposed to be in the toilet--I've seen the pictures of the homeless encampments, why would anyone want to live THERE? I thought everyone was supposed to be moving to Nevada, Utah, Texas, Arizona, etc.. Seems like you could do pretty well selling your 900K cottage and getting the same house for half that just a state or two away, leaving a big pot of cash to spend on cards or anything else. And what about the "wealth effect" that would have people splurging because their stocks, houses, crypto, cards, etc., have gone through the roof? As with the political scene, there seem to be some disconnects going on that I don't understand.

I understand the argument with why other players are not as high as Cobb. He has come down over the years but is still quite expensive if you're looking for a good example.

And here I thought I was the only one to set records with every purchase I make, even the Cobb's

Amen, sir.

My t205 Ty Cobb cost $450. Those days aren't coming back.

Yup

The reason prices are so high is that more people want to live here than not because Los Angeles is one of the great destination cities of the world. The population is staying in droves. Otherwise, the free market would depress prices.

i don't know what propaganda you are reading about L.A. but clearly whoever is spewing it has an agenda and facts be damned. The City of Los Angeles is over 500 square miles. For comparison, Manhattan is 23 square miles and 13 miles in length, and the state of Rhode Island is 1214 square miles. The skid row homeless encampments that all of the people shit-posting L.A. focus on is a small area about 20 miles from where I live. In other words, nearly two Manhattans away, and with a mountain range between us and them. As for moving to a cheaper state, uhh, no thanks. They do not offer the vibrant lifestyle, magnificent weather, and diversity that we have here. And no beaches inland.

True, not coming back but what has inflation done since you bought that? If everything also costs less than back then I see a major issue. I'm guessing your rent/mortgage isn't the same as it was when you got that also.

I wish they were more accessible for everyone. Long term supply / demand and good ole fashion inflation.

Ty Cobb, 1st day he played at Detroit back in 1905, seated on bench with manager Bill Armour.

Very Cool

Of course, Adam, and thank you. Same with the shit-posting about NYC, D.C., S.F., and anywhere else right-wing nut jobs try to claim are wastelands of crime, poverty, fleeing populations, etc. "Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded," in the words of our Shakespeare, Yogi. I wouldn't live where most of those lying clowns do if you paid me.

Amazing!

What he said. I've been on a nice Cobb run myself. Prices are staggering.

California's been good to me
Hope it don't fall into the sea
Sometimes you got to save yourself
It ain't like anywhere else
It ain't like anywhere else

Sundown, red skies
Nobody's been around
Sundown, blue eyes
I kinda like this party town

California's treated me good
I pray to God that the hills flood
Sometimes you got to trust yourself
It ain't like anywhere else

No one has wanted to live in NYC according to the same folks for decades. Yet rents and sale prices never seem to fall. Very odd.

Rollin' down the Imperial Highway
With a big nasty redhead at my side
Santa Ana winds blowing hot from the north
And we was born to ride

Roll down the window, put down the top
Crank up the Beach Boys, baby
Don't let the music stop
We're gonna ride it till
We just can't ride it no more

From the South Bay to the Valley
From the West Side to the East Side
Everybody's very happy
'Cause the sun is shining all the time
Looks like another perfect day

Look at these women

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi.../caligirls.jpg

Ain't nothin' like 'em nowhere.

Century Boulevard
We Love It!
Victory Boulevard
We love it!
Sixth Street
We love it!
We love it!
We Love It!
We Love LA!

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped.../I_Love_LA.jpg

Same with the supposedly crime-infested ghetto called D.C. But If you want to live anywhere but across the Anacostia River, you better be holding some serious cash.

The reason, Cobb to the moon
 

With apologies to President Kennedy.....

"We choose to send Ty Cobb to the Moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard; because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of his energies and skills, because that challenge is one that he is willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one he intend to win, and the others, too."

Butch

Over the past few years, it seems like the real 'blue chip' players have seen a serious increase in price. I assume some are more localized factors. The movie 42 and the focus on the Negro Leagues likely helped reinforce Jackie Robinson's importance and the way his life transcended sports. (It is possible Jonathan Eig's book "King" added to that as well.) More broadly though, it seems like when money poured into the hobby during the pandemic, the baseball money disproprtionately went to the biggest names. Cobb blew up, but so did Jackie, Ruth, Gehrig etc.

From my perspective it seems like everything has softened in the last year or so (in some cases starting earlier, in others more recently). Coupled with inflation, the impact is reasonably substantial for those focused on a return, especially as other investments like the stock market have done well.

I have wondered (more generally) whether as time goes on, the biggest names will continue to be the stuff of legends, but more and more great players who are not in the tiny 1A group will become less interesting. In part I imagine this might have always been the case, but today it also seems like attention spans are so much shorter, and I wonder which fans are going to take the time to learn about the Al Simmons or Gabby Hartnett of Bill Dickey's of the world. Or learn about the Negro Leagues, or T205's or barnstorming or other areas that have enormous richness, but are not as 'front page.'

Easy there fella. The left wing nut jobs are certainly doing their best to ruin these places. I live in LA (and in NY still part-time), and both places have serious long-term and short-term issues. MANY wealthy people are leaving both places for low-cost better-managed cities. I dont want to live in those places so I choose this lifestyle. LA is wonderful if you are one of the few who can afford to live here well and can find a good house. It is a Suburban market for the most part, few high rises available. In my area, there are 3 houses available and 100 people looking at any time, so it remains strong for now. New construction if you can find a spot costs $$$ and takes 2-4 years for any kind of quality. The key areas of NYC are not as in demand, but there is little supply of finished apartments ready for a family to move in in desired locations. Both places are massively expensive to live in.

For other right-wing nut jobs, here is a nice Cobb card….

Nice card!
And this forum is not the place for our discussion, so I'll try to end it by saying that I just don't think what you've said is true. I've lived in D.C. most of my life, but also L.A. and S.F., and yes,, they all have problems, but so do small towns, medium-size towns, farm areas, etc. Our homogenized suburbs are probably the best places to live if you don't mind living in the same cheesy Toll Bros. developments with the same strip malls with the same stores every mile or so, etc. Now I live in the lovely, historic, and very liberal small town of Winchester, VA, but it is surrounded by the very right wing Frederick County. No one in either is trying to ruin anything, but to make things better for our kids and grandkids, and I believe that's what people all over the U.S.A. are mostly interested in. I just don't see how you can say that nobody wants to live in the cities but it's unaffordable to live there. That doesn't make sense to me, other than as a phony way to demonize liberal-voting areas. I don't care how you vote or where you live, we're all Americans so let's try to come together and improve things through "truth, justice, and the American way." That's how Superman wanted it, and that's good enough for me. Over and out.

Because I sold all my Cobb postcards to early:cool:

Punch Cobb
 

Has anyone seen one of these trade in the past few years?

Opps... keep messing up the images
 

here is Cobb

Wow!

Those are amazing! Never seen them before.