Collectibles Markets vs Economy - Why does it have to be this way?

[brunswickreeves]

Amazing analysis and insights here as always. Net54 truly makes me more informed.

Respectfully though, I think we’re asking the wrong question. For me, it’s about, ‘How do I and my family adapt to this new reality and use as a catalyst to come out in a better financial position, while also donating more to charity?’

Some ideas/actions: take on a consulting gig in my SME, sell unnecessary stuff, negotiate with my employer to work more days remote to save fuel costs (ROT=Return on Time), apply for and jump to a next level job, cut discretionary spending (mostly restaurants), pay off high interest loans and debt (Dave Ramsey style), invest more pretax dollars to my HSA to reduce health care spend I know is coming, ask for some holiday gifts to be a donation to my fav charity and also personally match that via my employer which also matches my donation, and on and on. When all bundled together these can really move the dial and free up some capital to weather the storm, or invest a small portion in more cardboard during a buyer’s market.

[Exhibitman]

Nicolo, M2 has been contracting since February 2022 (per St. Louis Fed) and is back down to the level it was in Q2 2021. That is the result of the end of quantitative easing (QE4). I think you're spot-on about the still great returns on cards over 5+ years. Example: a PSA 8 1972 Topps Julius Erving was a $800-$1,000 card before the run, peaked at $9,000, fell to $3,000-$4.000 pretty quickly, and has steadily declined to about $1,800-$2,000 today. That's a heck of a return even if you kept the card and missed the peak: if you had to sell today you would have nothing to bitch about, really. But if you chased the wave and purchased it for $5K in the run-up and didn't take profits when you ran a bit more, pobrecito. I did real well selling into the rise but I missed some peaks and also bought a few stupidly inflated vintage cards, but at least they are big names, so I am not unhappy holding them for a while and waiting for the market to turn.

The card market in general starting inflating in 2020, really took off during the pandemic, and peaked last year; we have been in a partial downturn ever since, sector by sector. Modern is f****d; that bubble has burst and people are getting really pissed off. Which means it is too early to buy. We still need to get through the rest of the grief cycle (Denial. Anger. Bargaining. Depression. Acceptance) and get the capitulation sales under way. Then it is time to pick over the carcasses. I plan to shop for some MJ cards for the PC. I see an 87 Fleer in my future; I really like that card aesthetically speaking, just not at the current prices.

In terms of old cards, the downturn spread to postwar vintage first. Prewar vintage has started cracking in some of the mainstream issues. Still way above where it was before this started. Ryan has one (well, many) thing(s) right about cards: the biggest and best names hold value the best.

it's also really, really hard to generalize about such a diverse constellation of items that comprise the "Hobby". We are about to see an eye-popping price on that 1914 Ruth. Doesn't mean squatdiddly for the value of my 1961 Golden Press Ruth, but if someone thinks it does, my door is open. It is cool to see a card like the 1914 sell for the price of art, though. And it's a schedule card.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Nicolo, M2 has been contracting since February 2022 (per St. Louis Fed) and is back down to the level it was in Q2 2021. That is the result of the end of quantitative easing (QE4).

And that's why inflation is down a lot the last couple of months, compared to 12-24 months ago.

There's also the issue that inflation has lags that are long and variable. So changes in M2 don't translate into immediate changes in inflation rates.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

Amazing analysis and insights here as always. Net54 truly makes me more informed.

Agreed! When people avoid the jabs at politicians and political parties they personally don't like, these threads are quite interesting and informative.