Collectibles Markets vs Economy - Why does it have to be this way?

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Phil--what are you talking about? EVERYTHING is up roughly 30-40% from 2022? I believe that US inflation peaked at roughly 9% and now is in the 4% range. What are you seeing that is up 40% in the last year?

Prices are way up for a lot of goods sold. Much higher than the reported inflation numbers. The CPI is not nearly as useful of a metric as it was before they redid the formula however many years back, IMO. I know it's only up 8% or so per the dept of labor, but the price increases I've seen in my day to day life dwarf those figures. I think most people would say the same.

[GeoPoto]

"as never before seen inflation rates continue to soar".

I assume you are under 60.

Collectable prices soared in advance of the recent surge in inflation; whatever weakness in collectable prices you are observing now is hardly surprising despite the coincidental strength of inflation rates for other items.

[Kzoo]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Prices are way up for a lot of goods sold. Much higher than the reported inflation numbers. The CPI is not nearly as useful of a metric as it was before they redid the formula however many years back, IMO. I know it's only up 8% or so per the dept of labor, but the price increases I've seen in my day to day life dwarf those figures. I think most people would say the same.

I agree. That 8% government figure is laughable. The true % most folks are feeling is probably 2x-4x.

[Snapolit1]

Saw a bit from a comedian about how a local news station was interviewing a guy who was talking about how terrible the economy is while he was on his front lawn installing a 30 foot skeleton he had just purchased from Home Depot for $900.

Same people complaining about cost of gas going up 4 cents will have $2000 worth of Halloween decorations on their house.

When I was young most families had 1 car. Today it seems most of my friends everyone in the family over 18 has to have their own car. And many of them are BMWs. There are people legitimately hurting and there are people with absurd expectations as to what they are somehow entitled to.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Saw a bit from a comedian about how a local news station was interviewing a guy who was talking about how terrible the economy is while he was on his front lawn installing a 30 foot skeleton he had just purchased from Home Depot for $900.

Same people complaining about cost of gas going up 4 cents will have $2000 worth of Halloween decorations on their house.

When I was young most families had 1 car. Today it seems most of my friends everyone in the family over 18 has to have their own car. And many of them are BMWs. There are people legitimately hurting and there are people with absurd expectations as to what they are somehow entitled to.

In my opinion, anyone who has any money leftover for collectibles (or ridiculous Halloween decorations) is doing all right. A lot of people are just spoiled--including by years of zero inflation.

[Directly]

I imagine cigarettes' and other tobacco products have increased in price, but folks keep buying ! ( I'm guessing 5.95 a pack for premium? (2 packs/day x 365 days = around $4,000 a year). Yeah, money up in smoke.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

Ground beef was $7.99 two years ago, now $11.99. Bag of chips was $3.49 two years ago, today $5.29. 2L bottle of Coke was $2.75 two years ago, today $3.75. Box of cereal was $4.99, today $6.79. I could keep going on and on and on. EVERYTHING is indeed up 30-40% over the past two years. Where in history have we seen price increases at this rate? Of course, let's blame it all on COVID like everything else. While sports cards are average DOWN 30-40% over the past two years. At the start of 2021, gas was $1.99/gal., been over $3.00/gl. since the start of 2022.

WOW those are crazy high prices. They run about half that in my location. 85% ground beef is $4.49. Doritos, Cheetos, and the like are $3.99 and the cheap brands are usually 2 for $5. Kellogg's brand cereals are $3 to $4.

Originally Posted by Directly

I imagine cigarettes' and other tobacco products have increased in price, but folks keep buying ! ( I'm guessing 5.95 a pack for premium? (2 packs/day x 365 days = around $4,000 a year). Yeah, money up in smoke.

Here Marlboro are $9 and cheapies are $6 a pack. Several of my friends that smoke bought a cigarette maker. It basically just puts the tobacco into a paper tube with the filter already in it. They spend a little under a $1 per pack that way.

[bbcard1]

My thinking, which is often flawed, is that I have a few key and desirable cards on my want list, however they are relatively plentiful (think low to mid grade 1948 Musial). There are always at least ten available for sale on ebay, any decent show you walk into will have a few. As they are relatively plentiful, these would seem to be good candidates to moderate in pricing, or so I would think. Time will tell.

[bcbgcbrcb]

Why is inflation where it is since 2021 as compared to 2020 and for a decade earlier? I’ll answer, in a nutshell, COVID. Production of automobile computerized chips in short supply over the past 3 years, why? Again, I’ll answer, because of COVID. Now, that COVID is under much better control than it was in 2020, factory workers are not getting sick, dying, quitting, my guess is that production is back to pre-COVID levels “per worker”. So, why haven’t car prices gone back to pre-2020 levels? Again, I’ll answer, because the American public has shown the willingness to pay 30-40% more for new cars. Do you think automobile dealerships are EVER going to be willing to bring prices back to pre-2020 levels? Absolutely not, if they don’t have to. If money is so tight, again, spending should be cut across the board, including new cars.

Exact same thing applies with shortages of poultry, beef, etc. during the peak COVID time. Supply is back to normal for quite a long time now. Has the price of meats come down at all since then? Absolutely not, and won’t until the end consumer cuts spending here too. If Shop Rite has gotten used to charging $12 for 4 burgers worth of ground beef, why go back to charging $7?

All totally unacceptable!!!

[oldjudge]

In 2018 the average new car price in the US was about $37,500. Today, the average new car price is about $49,500. That is an increase of under 6% per annum.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

Why is inflation where it is since 2021 as compared to 2020 and for a decade earlier? I’ll answer, in a nutshell, COVID. Production of automobile computerized chips in short supply over the past 3 years, why? Again, I’ll answer, because of COVID. Now, that COVID is under much better control than it was in 2020, factory workers are not getting sick, dying, quitting, my guess is that production is back to pre-COVID levels “per worker”. So, why haven’t car prices gone back to pre-2020 levels? Again, I’ll answer, because the American public has shown the willingness to pay 30-40% more for new cars. Do you think automobile dealerships are EVER going to be willing to bring prices back to pre-2020 levels? Absolutely not, if they don’t have to. If money is so tight, again, spending should be cut across the board, including new cars.

Exact same thing applies with shortages of poultry, beef, etc. during the peak COVID time. Supply is back to normal for quite a long time now. Has the price of meats come down at all since then? Absolutely not, and won’t until the end consumer cuts spending here too. If Shop Rite has gotten used to charging $12 for 4 burgers worth of ground beef, why go back to charging $7?

All totally unacceptable!!!

I’m going to disagree with you here. At least in terms of the virus being the primary driver. It happened during COVID, but there was a lot of other action going on at the time that was a bigger factor in driving inflation. Now that the pandemic is over, many of those other same conditions endure, albeit with a lower impact today than a couple of years ago, but which continue to drive up prices.

Hate to burst your bubble, but prices on groceries are not going back to 2019 levels. The best we can hope for is the rate of increases continues to slow.

But if you want to organize a boycott against groceries until they lower the prices, then I wish you the best of luck with that.

[steve B]

I think there are a lot of very long term things finally showing their effects.

For decades, as a nation we've insisted on lower prices, and have been willing to sacrifice service and quality to get those lower prices. And that's in nearly everything.
Along with that has been an ever increasing demand for
A) More profits for those of us that can invest in stocks or property
b) Higher wages, especially at the lower end if the scale.

None of that is bad in itself, minimum wage was kept artificially low for far too long. Maybe not $15, but for sure more than 7. *
Post pandemic, the kob market made that more than a bit of a joke, the local McDonalds was paying 18 for night shift, and 20 closer to Boston.

At the same time, the big box stores and online businesses delivering cheap stuff made overseas but with absolutely no service (Unless you count immediate delivery as "service" )had finally destroyed nearly all competition. Most small specialty stores are gone, as well as many larger chains. Sears had almost everything they needed to be Amazon and to be first. National stocking and distribution, national advertising ... all they lacked was a usable website, which they got far too late. (so much for CEOs not making a difference)
So now the places selling everything cheap and mostly without quality have no competition, small margins, so single store profit can be affected by essentially doubling everyones pay. Leading to finding ways to cut labor costs. Like self checkout. Leading to higher theft, no surprise. meaning higher costs.

Fewer ways to cut costs, and no competition means prices are sure to increase.
Add that many places had increases, but never rolled back when costs dropped because why would they? and we get what we've got now.
The grocery store I go to has gotten a little more expensive. Not like many claim, but more expensive. The biggest difference I see is that many things still have variable availability. My kids like mini wheels pasta, and I haven't even seen it there in several months. Some other favorites, have also either vanished or only turned up occasionally. Some things like Entemans coffe cakes have gotten expensive, but the in store bakery items are much less.
Eggs are strange, I saw many people complaining that they were $6 a dozen, but the ones I get stayed right around 3.50, 3.69 for the last few months. And that's with Mass not allowing anything but cage free. So the cheaper ones weren't around anymore. (I quit those years ago as the quality was poor. )

In the past, when things got difficult in the stock market, people looked to other things as hedges against inflation, like metals or more recently (Like 80's-90's ) collectibles. Stuff that while it's not needed, will hopefully continue to be wanted once things get good for business again.
Hopefully it's not too bad, but this one feels different. Despite the stock market doing reasonably well, down lately, but in general well over where it was before the drop in 2020, and inflation being a bit elevated, there doesn't seem to be a big rush to metals or collectibles.






*when the "fight for 15 was going on, realities of how much customers would pay for what I do pretty much capped what I could make at 15-20, and I have decades of experience. None of my friends believed that someone getting the same pay for whatever with no experience and no skills devalued my work. They all said "well you should get more too" until I told them that would put the price of a bicycle tuneup higher than any of them would pay.
Now a few are in the same boat - "why does the kid who messes up my McDonalds order make as much as I do" It's not fair
Why is everything so expensive? It's not fair!

Yeah, told you that 4 years ago.... It's fair, sort of, and predictable.

[KCRfan1]

Someone mentioned earlier about consumers putting everyday goods and services on credit cards.

This is exactly what is happening for most households. Credit card debt is at an all-time high, over a trillion dollars. To add, the spent credit ( used credit ) and available credit is minimal at this point. People have maxed their cards for the most part.

The number of people taking hardship withdrawals, loans, against their 401k is steadily growing.

How this all gets paid back is another story. I don't see it happening though.

This is just a tip of a big iceberg though as many things are impacting our economy. Some of which are obvious, yet the true expense has not manifested itself.

As mentioned previously, the collectors market is driven by discretionary income.

Unless the collectible is unique or an early great of the game, I do not see how present value is maintained for most items. Plenty of room and time for the common collectible to decline.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Saw a bit from a comedian about how a local news station was interviewing a guy who was talking about how terrible the economy is while he was on his front lawn installing a 30 foot skeleton he had just purchased from Home Depot for $900.

Same people complaining about cost of gas going up 4 cents will have $2000 worth of Halloween decorations on their house.

When I was young most families had 1 car. Today it seems most of my friends everyone in the family over 18 has to have their own car. And many of them are BMWs. There are people legitimately hurting and there are people with absurd expectations as to what they are somehow entitled to.

That is what scares me. People are still spending, but are they spending with their savings or are they spending on credit? The later concerns me.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Prices are way up for a lot of goods sold. Much higher than the reported inflation numbers. The CPI is not nearly as useful of a metric as it was before they redid the formula however many years back, IMO. I know it's only up 8% or so per the dept of labor, but the price increases I've seen in my day to day life dwarf those figures. I think most people would say the same.

Most people have no idea what the real numbers are or a clear concept on how to calculate them.

How much did you spend on consumer goods the first half of 2022? How much for the first half of this year? I doubt it has changed much. (I also doubt you have changed your spending habits in any meaningful way.)

Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk

[oldjudge]

Phil--you need to learn that words have meanings. When you say EVERYTHING is up at least 30-40% over the last year it means that there is nothing that is not up at least 30-40% over the last year. The average US gasoline price is $3.47, down from $3.90 a year ago. Latest Kelly Blue book figures put new car prices up 4.8% over the last year. Clothing prices as of June were up 5.2% vs the prior year. Rental prices in the Los Angeles area have increased 10% over the last year. While there may be a few things that have shown more substantial price increases these numbers are in line with the government figures. Again, EVERYTHING means EVERYTHING; what you said is just plain wrong.