Collectibles Markets vs Economy - Why does it have to be this way?

[chalupacollects]

This economy was caused by the self-inflicted pain caused by this inept president and his administration the people voted for. Sure, there were supply issues due to covid but that was now 2 years ago. And even some of that was self-inflicted by keeping ships out of harbor in NY, LA and Baltimore...that's why prices increased because people aren't quite sure when the shoe will drop us straight into a recession/depression...or a war...

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by chalupacollects

This economy was caused by the self-inflicted pain caused by this inept president and his administration the people voted for. Sure, there were supply issues due to covid but that was now 2 years ago. And even some of that was self-inflicted by keeping ships out of harbor in NY, LA and Baltimore...that's why prices increased because people aren't quite sure when the shoe will drop us straight into a recession/depression...or a war...

Yay, politics on Net54! Everyone's favorite subject. Not.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Yay, politics on Net54! Everyone's favorite subject. Not.

The economy worldwide is a mess for a variety of reasons and the US’s problems would be the envy of most of Europe and the world. But sure it was caused by one guy and some boats.

[chalupacollects]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Yay, politics on Net54! Everyone's favorite subject. Not.

Ok that's on me, my bad, was trying to toe the line but guess not.

One really needs to look at oil prices as oil is used to make virtually everything we use day to day and then ship it to its end destination. When it costs more to manufacture and ship, costs for end products are going to rise...

[packs]

Society is built to continuously bleed you and works very hard against your upward mobility. In NYC I would point to the ever rising costs of Metrocards. the MTA will tell you they HAVE to raise prices to continue to offer service. However, if there ever was such a day that fares outpaced expenses, does anyone really believe they'd lower the fares?

[bnorth]

I do know the secret to fix everything wrong.

Just go to the genius level people that work the minimum wage jobs. Seriously they know everything from how to do their bosses job better to run the company they work at better to fixing the worlds economy.

[brunswickreeves]

Amazing analysis and insights here as always. Net54 truly makes me more informed.

Respectfully though, I think we’re asking the wrong question. For me, it’s about, ‘How do I and my family adapt to this new reality and use as a catalyst to come out in a better financial position, while also donating more to charity?’

Some ideas/actions: take on a consulting gig in my SME, sell unnecessary stuff, negotiate with my employer to work more days remote to save fuel costs (ROT=Return on Time), apply for and jump to a next level job, cut discretionary spending (mostly restaurants), pay off high interest loans and debt (Dave Ramsey style), invest more pretax dollars to my HSA to reduce health care spend I know is coming, ask for some holiday gifts to be a donation to my fav charity and also personally match that via my employer which also matches my donation, and on and on. When all bundled together these can really move the dial and free up some capital to weather the storm, or invest a small portion in more cardboard during a buyer’s market.

[Exhibitman]

Nicolo, M2 has been contracting since February 2022 (per St. Louis Fed) and is back down to the level it was in Q2 2021. That is the result of the end of quantitative easing (QE4). I think you're spot-on about the still great returns on cards over 5+ years. Example: a PSA 8 1972 Topps Julius Erving was a $800-$1,000 card before the run, peaked at $9,000, fell to $3,000-$4.000 pretty quickly, and has steadily declined to about $1,800-$2,000 today. That's a heck of a return even if you kept the card and missed the peak: if you had to sell today you would have nothing to bitch about, really. But if you chased the wave and purchased it for $5K in the run-up and didn't take profits when you ran a bit more, pobrecito. I did real well selling into the rise but I missed some peaks and also bought a few stupidly inflated vintage cards, but at least they are big names, so I am not unhappy holding them for a while and waiting for the market to turn.

The card market in general starting inflating in 2020, really took off during the pandemic, and peaked last year; we have been in a partial downturn ever since, sector by sector. Modern is f****d; that bubble has burst and people are getting really pissed off. Which means it is too early to buy. We still need to get through the rest of the grief cycle (Denial. Anger. Bargaining. Depression. Acceptance) and get the capitulation sales under way. Then it is time to pick over the carcasses. I plan to shop for some MJ cards for the PC. I see an 87 Fleer in my future; I really like that card aesthetically speaking, just not at the current prices.

In terms of old cards, the downturn spread to postwar vintage first. Prewar vintage has started cracking in some of the mainstream issues. Still way above where it was before this started. Ryan has one (well, many) thing(s) right about cards: the biggest and best names hold value the best.

it's also really, really hard to generalize about such a diverse constellation of items that comprise the "Hobby". We are about to see an eye-popping price on that 1914 Ruth. Doesn't mean squatdiddly for the value of my 1961 Golden Press Ruth, but if someone thinks it does, my door is open. It is cool to see a card like the 1914 sell for the price of art, though. And it's a schedule card.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Nicolo, M2 has been contracting since February 2022 (per St. Louis Fed) and is back down to the level it was in Q2 2021. That is the result of the end of quantitative easing (QE4).

And that's why inflation is down a lot the last couple of months, compared to 12-24 months ago.

There's also the issue that inflation has lags that are long and variable. So changes in M2 don't translate into immediate changes in inflation rates.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

Amazing analysis and insights here as always. Net54 truly makes me more informed.

Agreed! When people avoid the jabs at politicians and political parties they personally don't like, these threads are quite interesting and informative.

[Leon]

No politics please.

On the subject of price increases, look no further than WalMart gallon water. It's up about 65% over the last year or two. It was .80 and now it's $1.34.....Small item but indicative of the economy. I never understood where some were saying things were going up less than 10%. It seems everything has gone up a lot further than that.

Originally Posted by chalupacollects

This economy was caused by the self-inflicted pain caused by this inept president and his administration the people voted for. Sure, there were supply issues due to covid but that was now 2 years ago. And even some of that was self-inflicted by keeping ships out of harbor in NY, LA and Baltimore...that's why prices increased because people aren't quite sure when the shoe will drop us straight into a recession/depression...or a war...

and a card for the thread...

[BobbyStrawberry]

I'm not an economist, but it might be worth trying to distinguish between the effects of inflation and straight-up price gouging. It seems to me that for food (and water jugs), companies keep raising prices knowing that people have to eat (and drink). And few people in this country grow/raise enough food on their own to be able to sidestep that.

[Exhibitman]

OP: Wrong! The explanation is simple: interest rates and market increases. Why would I speculate on stuff like cards with my investment money when the market already had its bull run and the Fed has kindly raised rates to the point where I can park my card money at 5% and wait for the capitulation sale by desperate people who went all in on cards at sky high prices and now are panicking. There’s probably more fluff to punch out of the postwar market. Vintage not so much given the relative scarcity of many sets.

Lots of money is sitting on the sidelines waiting.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

OP: Wrong! The explanation is simple: interest rates and market increases. Why would I speculate on stuff like cards with my investment money when the market already had its bull run and the Fed has kindly raised rates to the point where I can park my card money at 5% and wait for the capitulation sale by desperate people who went all in on cards at sky high prices and now are panicking. There’s probably more fluff to punch out of the postwar market. Vintage not so much given the relative scarcity of many sets.

Lots of money is sitting on the sidelines waiting.

True. Why would anybody speculate with investment money anyway.

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[raulus]

For the OP, I think your starting point is off when it comes to your analysis of price increases, particularly on cardboard.

Compared to 2019, most vintage baseball cardboard (ie the stuff most of us collect) is up at least 100%, and in some cases more like 200-300% or more. Cardboard price increases for vintage baseball over the last 3-4 years are sooooooooo much greater than inflation on everything else. And it’s not even close.

To respond to your question about why it has to be this way, while economists love to debate what drives inflation, I’m a big believer in M2 - when the supply of money goes up without a corresponding shift in the number of available goods, then prices will rise. And to avoid politics behind why M2 increased, I’ll leave it at that.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by raulus

To respond to your question about why it has to be this way, while economists love to debate what drives inflation, I’m a big believer in M2 - when the supply of money goes up without a corresponding shift in the number of available goods, then prices will rise. And to avoid politics behind why M2 increased, I’ll leave it at that.

I'm with you on that. M2 is a manipulable inflationary pressure and a leading indicator. It certainly had a significant effect on this hobby. More than most people realize. The boom wasn't only because people were stuck inside. Although the causes for its increases are multi faceted. Not being able to travel or go out and blow our money had a lot to do with it too. It wasn't entirely the result of policy decisions, though they certainly contributed significantly.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Target inflation is 2%.

Monthly inflation has been between 3 and 4% for a few months. .
.

The economist I read says the new normal will likely not be 2% again. Economists will be happy with 3-4%. So we might now be back to normal.

Originally Posted by chalupacollects

This economy was caused by the self-inflicted pain caused by this inept president and his administration the people voted for. Sure, there were supply issues due to covid but that was now 2 years ago. And even some of that was self-inflicted by keeping ships out of harbor in NY, LA and Baltimore...that's why prices increased because people aren't quite sure when the shoe will drop us straight into a recession/depression...or a war...

Not being political, but Pres Trumps tax cuts and import/export war with China caused inflation before COVID. The trade war with China caused prices on clothing to soar even before the factories shut down. My mom, a quilter, was complaining about prices of cloth in 2018. Both economic policies had unintended consequences when paired with COVID and stimulus legislation.

Trumps replica across the pond, Liz Truss, tried to pass tax deductions in 2022 (while already mired in deep inflation) and lost her job after just 6 weeks.

The US is going to see a lot of belts tighten significantly after Christmas due to college loan payments restarting. Mine are $450/month, and I have fewer loans than the average college graduate. I also have an advanced degree. It's probably a good thing. Not sure if it will cause a recession.

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[gunboat82]

Originally Posted by todeen

The economist I read says the new normal will likely not be 2% again. Economists will be happy with 3-4%. So we might now be back to normal.



Not being political, but Pres Trumps tax cuts and import/export war with China caused inflation before COVID. The trade war with China caused prices on clothing to soar even before the factories shut down. My mom, a quilter, was complaining about prices of cloth in 2018. Both economic policies had unintended consequences when paired with COVID and stimulus legislation.

Trumps replica across the pond, Liz Truss, tried to pass tax deductions in 2022 (while already mired in deep inflation) and lost her job after just 6 weeks.

The US is going to see a lot of belts tighten significantly after Christmas due to college loan payments restarting. Mine are $450/month, and I have fewer loans than the average college graduate. I also have an advanced degree. It's probably a good thing. Not sure if it will cause a recession.

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The student loan thing is a good point. For several years, that was an extra $12K per year or so that I had to spend on luxuries like baseball cards, travel, and dining out. Mine have already restarted, and baseball cards are the first thing on the chopping block.

[bobbyw8469]

Not being political, but Pres Trumps tax cuts and import/export war with China caused inflation before COVID.

They really didn't. Inflation was caused by attacking our fossil fuel industry and spending money like a drunken sailor. Why are you blaming Trump for Biden's inlfation??? And then you preface it by saying, "Not being political but...."

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

They really didn't. Inflation was caused by attacking our fossil fuel industry and spending money like a drunken sailor. Why are you blaming Trump for Biden's inlfation??? And then you preface it by saying, "Not being political but...."

Can you please elaborate on how the current administration has "attacked our fossil industry" with concrete evidence?

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Can you please elaborate on how the current administration has "attacked our fossil industry" with concrete evidence?

September 6, 2019

NEW CASTLE, N.H. (AP) — Joe Biden is looking voters in the eye and promising to “end fossil fuel.”

The former vice president and Democratic presidential candidate made the comment Friday after a New Hampshire environmental activist challenged him for accepting donations from the co-founder of liquified natural gas firm.

Biden denied the donor’s association to the fossil fuel industry before calling the young woman “kiddo” and taking her hand. He said, “I want you to look at my eyes. I guarantee you. I guarantee you. We’re going to end fossil fuel.”

[bobbyw8469]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Can you please elaborate on how the current administration has "attacked our fossil industry" with concrete evidence?

Come on....seriously??? You never saw the video of him bragging about wanting to shut down our gas industry?? You never saw that big stack of executive orders he signed on day one?? You aren't privy to him cancelling oil and gas lease sales? Do you really want me to flood Net54 with all the actions he has taken to try to push his green agenda and force us all into electric vehicles?? Let's get back to cards......Cause we aren't going to agree on this.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

Come on....seriously??? You never saw the video of him bragging about wanting to shut down our gas industry?? You never saw that big stack of executive orders he signed on day one?? You aren't privy to him cancelling oil and gas lease sales? Do you really want me to flood Net54 with all the actions he has taken to try to push his green agenda and force us all into electric vehicles?? Let's get back to cards......Cause we aren't going to agree on this.

The current administration wants to get re-elected. So they have to appease their base with lip service about ending fossil fuels. But what have they ACTUALLY done to eliminate fossil fuels?

You have already flooded Net54 with your political views, so I think the horse has left the barn on that one. Feel free to PM me if you wish to spare the board.