Black Swamp Find? Tell me more!

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Hi Bob,

As I have posted twice, there were more cards in the find than what was disclosed by anyone giving interviews. The part of the family who sold initially opted to have Heritage let the hobby know up front how many cards were available for sale rather than have Heritage submit these slowly over the years. Maybe the other family members preferred to have the cards as opposed to the money and 7 years later changed their minds???

Clearly looking at the population reports in 2023 on the E98 set with SGC and PSA numbers have blown up showing 4,000 cards graded and even if we decide that cards were submitted more than once and/or possibly broken out of one holder and sent to the other grading service, that still adds up to a lot more than the original find as being the only cards from the find. If PSA had graded 628 E98s up until the find, let's say SGC had graded 700. That leaves roughly 2,700 E98s submitted between 2012 and 2023. If 750 of those were from Heritage that leaves roughly 2,000 more E98s to go to those TPGers.

I had great interest in the find because I was hoping to add the lower graded Hall of Famers from the find to my own collection. One interview did include a vague reference that could have been interpreted two different ways suggesting there might be more cards. Nobody followed up on it or maybe they tried and it was shutdown because the focus was on what Heritage was bringing to auction.

It is really not my place to go into details but I spoke with the dealer who was initially part of the deal buying out the back half of the collection and his words to me were that there was a larger quantity of cards in the back half of the collection than in the portion which Heritage offered for sale.

Okay, so you're saying there were way more cards, but pretty much everyone kept it secret as to how many there were, and are still doing it for the most part, despite there now really being no reason to not come out with the truth? And you're also saying that the stories about all these cards from the Find being pretty much pristine and in great condition is not true either? Otherwise, shouldn't there be way more E98 graded cards today in the 8-9-10 grades?

I don't doubt what you're telling the truth as you know it, but why all the friggin' secrecy? If the family that inherited the cards were so worried about possibly killing the market for them if they were all released at once, then why did they release the nicest condition cards first? If someone were sitting on that big of a collection, wouldn't it make more sense to want to slowly start and release some of the lower condition cards first? If the previous highest graded E98 cards ever graded had only been 7s, release some of the cards that were in the 5-6-7 range first. People would pay top dollar for those cards as they were close to the known highest condition E98 cards out there at that time. And then slowly in the coming months/years, progressively release some of the nicer and nicer cards as you go along, and try to hold onto the 9s and 10s till the last. Here's a case where going to someone like Heritage probably works against you. Despite them saying they were releasing these cards over time to maximize income to the family, I think it was more of Heritage wanting to get the word out about these cards and maximize money for themselves, in a short time frame. Of course, members of the family could have easily gone along and wanted to quickly max out what money they could receive from this inheritance as well, and that does make perfect sense and help justify what I think was otherwise maybe bad advice from Heritage on how to handle this Find. But is still doesn't even begin to explain why no one would eventually mention how many cards there really were in this Find then, unless that was part of the hold back and delay releasing them into the hobby tactic, to hopefully maximize and get even more money by spreading out the release of the cards and not letting people know how many there truly were. But again, if you're using that logic and thinking, why sell all the higher condition cards first? If someone just sold a couple first ever seen E98s graded 8, and they bring in record prices for E98 cards, just think what a couple 9s would then bring in the following year or so.

But you're certain that there were a lot more E98 cards in the find, and that there was a different dealer involved in buying a good chunk of the balance of the Find from the family. Okay, but the fact that I've never heard or seen anything about this before in any published articles or stories, and even you are hesitant to name the dealer involved in this so-called sale/purchase, just makes the whole thing seem really sketchy. You're basically saying to just believe the story on almost pure faith, with the only potential evidence to help support the claim being the number of E98 cards that are now graded. Even though the increased number of E98 cards being graded after the Black Swamp Find could also possibly be attributed to more people getting their E98 cards graded following the buzz and excitement of the Black Swamp Find, likely aided by many people now looking to possibly cash in on the prices these new to market E98s were bringing in, as well as just the natural increase/addition to the number of E98 cards that would have been sent in for grading anyway. It's not like people aren't constantly submitting other never before graded pre-war cards during this past decade or so either. I can see the underlying logic to the argument, but without really knowing the accurate number of E98 cards that were in the Black Swamp Find, and why there seems to be so much secrecy still around that, it is somewhat hard to solely attribute the graded card increase to primarily the Black Swamp Find alone. Something doesn't smell right, there shouldn't be all this secrecy about the number of cards in the Find, at least it hasn't been necessary for any reason I can think of for quite a few years now. Like ai said, I don't doubt you at all, but something still doesn't make sense to me. Oh well.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by BobC

Okay, so you're saying there were way more cards, but pretty much everyone kept it secret as to how many there were, and are still doing it for the most part, despite there now really being no reason to not come out with the truth? And you're also saying that the stories about all these cards from the Find being pretty much pristine and in great condition is not true either? Otherwise, shouldn't there be way more E98 graded cards today in the 8-9-10 grades?

I don't doubt what you're telling the truth as you know it, but why all the friggin' secrecy? If the family that inherited the cards were so worried about possibly killing the market for them if they were all released at once, then why did they release the nicest condition cards first? If someone were sitting on that big of a collection, wouldn't it make more sense to want to slowly start and release some of the lower condition cards first? If the previous highest graded E98 cards ever graded had only been 7s, release some of the cards that were in the 5-6-7 range first. People would pay top dollar for those cards as they were close to the known highest condition E98 cards out there at that time. And then slowly in the coming months/years, progressively release some of the nicer and nicer cards as you go along, and try to hold onto the 9s and 10s till the last. Here's a case where going to someone like Heritage probably works against you. Despite them saying they were releasing these cards over time to maximize income to the family, I think it was more of Heritage wanting to get the word out about these cards and maximize money for themselves, in a short time frame. Of course, members of the family could have easily gone along and wanted to quickly max out what money they could receive from this inheritance as well, and that does make perfect sense and help justify what I think was otherwise maybe bad advice from Heritage on how to handle this Find. But is still doesn't even begin to explain why no one would eventually mention how many cards there really were in this Find then, unless that was part of the hold back and delay releasing them into the hobby tactic, to hopefully maximize and get even more money by spreading out the release of the cards and not letting people know how many there truly were. But again, if you're using that logic and thinking, why sell all the higher condition cards first? If someone just sold a couple first ever seen E98s graded 8, and they bring in record prices for E98 cards, just think what a couple 9s would then bring in the following year or so.

But you're certain that there were a lot more E98 cards in the find, and that there was a different dealer involved in buying a good chunk of the balance of the Find from the family. Okay, but the fact that I've never heard or seen anything about this before in any published articles or stories, and even you are hesitant to name the dealer involved in this so-called sale/purchase, just makes the whole thing seem really sketchy. You're basically saying to just believe the story on almost pure faith, with the only potential evidence to help support the claim being the number of E98 cards that are now graded. Even though the increased number of E98 cards being graded after the Black Swamp Find could also possibly be attributed to more people getting their E98 cards graded following the buzz and excitement of the Black Swamp Find, likely aided by many people now looking to possibly cash in on the prices these new to market E98s were bringing in, as well as just the natural increase/addition to the number of E98 cards that would have been sent in for grading anyway. It's not like people aren't constantly submitting other never before graded pre-war cards during this past decade or so either. I can see the underlying logic to the argument, but without really knowing the accurate number of E98 cards that were in the Black Swamp Find, and why there seems to be so much secrecy still around that, it is somewhat hard to solely attribute the graded card increase to primarily the Black Swamp Find alone. Something doesn't smell right, there shouldn't be all this secrecy about the number of cards in the Find, at least it hasn't been necessary for any reason I can think of for quite a few years now. Like ai said, I don't doubt you at all, but something still doesn't make sense to me. Oh well.

Hopefully I will hit on everything you wrote/asked. I am not asking you to just believe me because you do not know me and I am not even trying to convince you. Only trying to share what is appropriate for me to share based on what I have been told. The dealer who bought the back half of the collection from the family is a member here as I have seen him post at one time. The guy who ended up with them, from him, and blowing up the pop report even more than it already was, is Evan Mathis. The dealer who told me about the back half of the BSF was brought in as a consultant before the cards were sold to Mathis. He is not someone who would make up something like this or lie to me. Further when he told me I was taken aback and relieved I did not make my BSF purchases.

I have no idea when the cards were divided up and if the family did it on their own or with Heritage and for all I know Heritage was only told about the 750 that they got. I have no idea how the back half of the cards graded as a whole but from what I was told..yeah I know...the condition of the cards was similar to the initial find. There were some lower grade cards that had stains on the back, poorly centered cards and cards with indentations and corner dings from storage but there were plenty of 8s and better.

I cannot speak for Heritage, the family or anyone else involved so I have no idea why it was kept quiet that there were twice as many cards in the find as initially reported. What I know is that Evan Mathis was grading and selling these and they were not cards he bought out of Heritage. I really think the family who held them had every intention of keeping them but then decided to cash out when they saw the numbers that were achieved. If Heritage knew this I guess it is for each of us to decide if we were mislead.

I think if you look at the pop report it would be easy to conclude that it was not 1s through 3s that were being graded since 2012 but 5s and above and the majority of the 4,000 cards graded are 5 and above. I have not looked that closely at the pop figures but glancing at them it appeared to look that way.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Hopefully I will hit on everything you wrote/asked. I am not asking you to just believe me because you do not know me and I am not even trying to convince you. Only trying to share what is appropriate for me to share based on what I have been told. The dealer who bought the back half of the collection from the family is a member here as I have seen him post at one time. The guy who ended up with them, from him, and blowing up the pop report even more than it already was, is Evan Mathis. The dealer who told me about the back half of the BSF was brought in as a consultant before the cards were sold to Mathis. He is not someone who would make up something like this or lie to me. Further when he told me I was taken aback and relieved I did not make my BSF purchases.

I have no idea when the cards were divided up and if the family did it on their own or with Heritage and for all I know Heritage was only told about the 750 that they got. I have no idea how the back half of the cards graded as a whole but from what I was told..yeah I know...the condition of the cards was similar to the initial find. There were some lower grade cards that had stains on the back, poorly centered cards and cards with indentations and corner dings from storage but there were plenty of 8s and better.

I cannot speak for Heritage, the family or anyone else involved so I have no idea why it was kept quiet that there were twice as many cards in the find as initially reported. What I know is that Evan Mathis was grading and selling these and they were not cards he bought out of Heritage. I really think the family who held them had every intention of keeping them but then decided to cash out when they saw the numbers that were achieved. If Heritage knew this I guess it is for each of us to decide if we were mislead.

I think if you look at the pop report it would be easy to conclude that it was not 1s through 3s that were being graded since 2012 but 5s and above and the majority of the 4,000 cards graded are 5 and above. I have not looked that closely at the pop figures but glancing at them it appeared to look that way.

I know of one dealer who has seen the back half, I have no idea what the plan is for introduction into the market is but one has to be very careful about that. Imagine what introducing 50 more Red Cobb PSA 98's would do to the price.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

I know of one dealer who has seen the back half, I have no idea what the plan is for introduction into the market is but one has to be very careful about that. Imagine what introducing 50 more Red Cobb PSA 98's would do to the price.

The back half of the find started to be introduced into the hobby as far back as 2019. Quite certain all of the cards that were intending to be graded have been graded. These cards have been moved privately as well as through many of the auction houses.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

The back half of the find started to be introduced into the hobby as far back as 2019. Quite certain all of the cards that were intending to be graded have been graded. These cards have been moved privately as well as through many of the auction houses.

So they're all in the market now?

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

So they're all in the market now?

Chase,

I hear you. That is a crazy story though. But if two of you have heard of it, I guess I have to believe it as well. So it sounds like it is not widely known if the entire Find has made it to the market yet either. If not, that is just crazy. It has been over a decade now since the BSF occurred, and one would normally expect that all the cards would have made it to the market long before now.

So how many cards were there in this Find? You've talked about someone buying the back half, and if Heritage got the 750 or so up front to sell, does that mean the 1,400-1,500 number mentioned by some others is somewhat accurate then? Or is that "back half" comment just a phrase someone threw out, and not really indicative that the 750 or so E98 cards that Heritage got to sell up front was about half the Find after all? Because if the Find really did amount to about 1,400-1,500 E98 cards, the combined PSA, SGC, and CSG population reports currently show a total of 4,106 E98 cards have been graded to date. In that case, the Black Swamp Find cards don't even make up half of the graded E98s out there. So using rounded numbers, if before the BSF there were about 750 graded E98s out there, then the 750 Heritage got graded took that number to about 1,500. And since there are around 4,100 graded E98s out there today, that means an additional 2,600 or so (4,100 - 1,500) have been graded since the BSF hit the news. And if about 750 of those represent the 'back half" of the total BSF, that means around 1,850 E98 cards (2,600 - 750) had nothing to do with the BSF at all. That is about 2-1/2 times the number of cards in the supposed "back half" of the Find. So at least it seems I may have been right about there being a lot of non-BSF E98's that were out there that came in to be graded. And I'm going to guess there may be a lot more ungraded E98 cards out there yet.

Never heard about this "back half" of the BSF before, just what the mainstream articles, stories, and the Strange Inheritance TV show all kept saying. Learned something new then. Would still like to hear all the real details at some point though, but it doesn't sound like we will.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by BobC

Chase,

I hear you. That is a crazy story though. But if two of you have heard of it, I guess I have to believe it as well. So it sounds like it is not widely known if the entire Find has made it to the market yet either. If not, that is just crazy. It has been over a decade now since the BSF occurred, and one would normally expect that all the cards would have made it to the market long before now.

So how many cards were there in this Find? You've talked about someone buying the back half, and if Heritage got the 750 or so up front to sell, does that mean the 1,400-1,500 number mentioned by some others is somewhat accurate then? Or is that "back half" comment just a phrase someone threw out, and not really indicative that the 750 or so E98 cards that Heritage got to sell up front was about half the Find after all? Because if the Find really did amount to about 1,400-1,500 E98 cards, the combined PSA, SGC, and CSG population reports currently show a total of 4,106 E98 cards have been graded to date. In that case, the Black Swamp Find cards don't even make up half of the graded E98s out there. So using rounded numbers, if before the BSF there were about 750 graded E98s out there, then the 750 Heritage got graded took that number to about 1,500. And since there are around 4,100 graded E98s out there today, that means an additional 2,600 or so (4,100 - 1,500) have been graded since the BSF hit the news. And if about 750 of those represent the 'back half" of the total BSF, that means around 1,850 E98 cards (2,600 - 750) had nothing to do with the BSF at all. That is about 2-1/2 times the number of cards in the supposed "back half" of the Find. So at least it seems I may have been right about there being a lot of non-BSF E98's that were out there that came in to be graded. And I'm going to guess there may be a lot more ungraded E98 cards out there yet.

Never heard about this "back half" of the BSF before, just what the mainstream articles, stories, and the Strange Inheritance TV show all kept saying. Learned something new then. Would still like to hear all the real details at some point though, but it doesn't sound like we will.

The dealer that spoke to me of the back half of the find indicated there were more cards held back by the family that opted to keep them than were graded originally by Heritage. If Heritage graded 750 of them then there were more than 1,500 in all found in the home.

I am confident that cards were submitted more than once, especially the Hall of Famers. I am also certain that cards were graded by PSA and then broken out and sent to SGC when they were not happy with the grades. The more than 4,000 cards graded between both pop reports includes many BSF cards that were seen more than once. Someone posted that prior to the BSF being submitted there were roughly 627 cards in PSA's pop report. I would guess there were at least that many, if not more, in SGC's. Let's assume pre BSF there had been 1,500 cards in the combined pop reports. Another 1,500 from the find which leaves roughly 1,000 other submissions of E98s most of which I would argue are cards being resubmitted or broken out and sent to the other grading company.

Again, no idea why the choice was made to not state upfront that more than 1500 cards were found but only 750 would be coming to auction other than the family having kept that a secret from Heritage or that there was a concern it might have a negative impact on the 750 that were going to auction.

[BobC]

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[RCMcKenzie]

For me, the bsf cards are like Gauguin woodcuts, I don't know the open editions by his great nephew and others, from the very rare Christie's supposedly original ones. They all look the same to me, and they are expensive.

I haven't bought any e98's since all this happened. My joke is, "Are they still making the, I mean releasing the cards, releasing the cards?"