New and Shiny - Market Manipulation

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by Fred

I don't follow modern card sales but I do understand that there are lots of "1 of 1" cards and other shiny offerings that seem to drive the value of the cards up for all sports. Personally, I don't get the crazy pricing and valuations for these cards.

What happens if a player with lots of potential pans out to be a star but not a super star. Does that rookie card or "1 of 1" start to diminish in price?

For a while there was a Trout card that just seemed to go ballistic. Trout's turning a great player. A few more good years and he can cement himself in as an all time great. But what happens if he suffers a debilitating injury? Do his rookie cards and "1 of 1" cards start dropping in price. What is the shelf life for high prices on these cards?

Does anybody believe there is market manipulation going on in these modern cards? Again, I don't understand paying so much for something that is relatively new and a gimmick that is created by a card manufacturer.

When I think of the distribution of these limited cards, I start thinking about the McDonalds Monopoly disaster that just put a horrible light on how these things are distributed. Does anybody know how these cards are "randomly" distributed?

I'd say Trout's the same as anybody else. If you correct for the overall rise or fall of the market, the prices of his cards will go up to the extent that he does better than expected and down to the extent that he does worse than expected. If he bats .300 and hits 20 HRs and finishes the 2023 season with a WAR of 3.8 his cards will underperform the market. If he wins another MVP, his cards will outperform the market. That's true for his 1-of-1 cards as well as his base cards and everything in between.

He's already got a better than even chance of being a first-ballot Hall of Famer, so that's already baked into the current prices, but in theory he could still end up having an even better career than current projections would suggest. If he does better for the remainder of his career than he has done so far, he could end up widely seen as the best player since Babe Ruth, in which case buying his cards right now would have been a good move. But that's very unlikely for a player who hasn't appeared in over 140 games in a season since 2016.