New and Shiny - Market Manipulation

[packs]

Originally Posted by bnorth

You are trying to make a very simple thing seem difficult when it really isn't.

Then it should be easy to explain why a company would be interested in doing that. Panini got a ton of eyes when the Lebron Logoman was pulled. It later sold for 2.4 million dollars, bringing them more attention. It was pulled live on camera in front of an audience of rabid product fans.

What publicity would Panini have gotten if that card ended up in an anonymous shadow dealer's case at the National? How would that benefit the company in any way?

You're talking about a company manipulating it's product and alienating all of the people buying it. And you're saying that's simple and easy but why would a company invite jeopardy like that?

[Section103]

Im not here to suggest every numbered card of every player is unfairly distributed. Far from it. But not every card is an LBJ selling for millions of dollars either. Favors and preferential treatment happens. You can believe that or not.

[packs]

A rookie numbered to 10 of the premier player in the NFL at the time is not an anonymous card. That would be the equivalent to a Bowman 1st Red Auto now. Forums track these kinds of cards obsessively and they often account for all of them.

It would go noticed today. That's why I don't really see it as being a plague to the hobby. If you pulled the Red First Bowman Auto of Jasson Dominguez there is a chance you might just keep it to yourself and hold onto it for later. But there's a better chance you'll talk about it on a message board somewhere or offer it for sale in a large market, adding it to the known population of cards.

[Section103]

Oh I have no doubt that someone if not several people now own those cards because they were privately and slowly offered up for sale. But they were never pulled from a pack and there's no easy way to distinguish between what was pulled from a pack by a random collector and what was not.

Ultimately, I dont disagree with you. There are plenty enough "pull cards" out in distribution to keep the general public happy. But the process is not or at least, "was not" 100% clean. There are way too many ways to skirt the system subtly and individuals will profit from it. Not "retire on a private island" levels of profit, but a nice chunk of change for not a lot of work.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by packs

Then it should be easy to explain why a company would be interested in doing that. Panini got a ton of eyes when the Lebron Logoman was pulled. It later sold for 2.4 million dollars, bringing them more attention. It was pulled live on camera in front of an audience of rabid product fans.

What publicity would Panini have gotten if that card ended up in an anonymous shadow dealer's case at the National? How would that benefit the company in any way?

You're talking about a company manipulating it's product and alienating all of the people buying it. And you're saying that's simple and easy but why would a company invite jeopardy like that?

I get what you are saying. I feel the same about PSA. All these BS stories about gifting grades don't make sense. Really what would they gain from it? I know I have a PSA 9 card that is accurately graded so why wouldn't all PSA cards be accurately graded. Just a bunch of haters making up stories.

Don't get me started at these supposed altered cards. Why would anybody do that and why would PSA grade them? Again just don't make sense.

[packs]

I don't see the connection between TPG submissions and something like a Topps product release.

[Exhibitman]

There are some inferential mathematical studies of the success rates of certain 'social influencer' breakers at finding significant insert cards that conclude that the likelihood of them actually finding the cards they found at random is practically zero, the suggestion being that they are fed loaded cases as a marketing scheme.

https://forums.collectors.com/discus...pulling-a-scam

I have no personal experience or information on this; frankly, I don't care. But it is interesting to consider just how rigged the casino is, and how we as collectors are asking questions that I never, ever thought I would consider when I started collecting Topps cards in the last Ice Age. Used to pick up a pack every morning on my way to school in Bedrock.

[packs]

The last comment on that thread is the most telling and probably explains a lot of what is being seen as shady. If you buy a case of product you only need to open the first or second boxes of the product to predict where the hits are.

Example: if I bought a case of 2022 Bowman Draft Jumbo I would only need to open the first box to know where every autograph in every other box in the case is. For example, if I open the first box of the case and the autos are in the third pack of each row, I could then theoretically only open those packs in every other box and sell all the rest of the unopened Jumbo packs to collectors under the guise that they "might" be the pack with the autograph, knowing the whole time they won't be.

If you're ordering multiple cases of product they tend to be packed the same way. You'll know with reasonable accuracy that the case hit will be in the 4th box down (making that up) of every case ordered.

Breakers know this too if they're serious case buyers. I will open up a channel to watch a break and the breaker will pull the 2 packs (for example) they know have the autos in them from the stack before even opening the first pack. Because they know where they'll be based on the first box of that case.

Breakers also become familiar with collation. I've watched a ton of videos where the breaker starts freaking out because of the sequence of the first three cards or whatever knowing what is coming. You see it a lot with the 86 Fleer basketball packs. If you see Clark Kellogg in your pack, you've got a good chance of seeing Michael too.

[Carter08]

The thing I didn’t realize is that the super rare 1 of 1s aren’t typically lucky finds in a pack somewhere. The come from buying super expensive steel boxes with 3 cards in them in total. And that’s where people hope to hit the 1 of 1 of Luka as opposed to Rudy Gobert. What’s crazy to me is calling something 1 of 1 because it’s red but you also have a 1 of 1 that is a different color, and then another color, and then another color. I don’t get modern. I barely get vintage lol.

[Exhibitman]

They call it collecting the rainbow. It can get very frustrating when they get to the 1/3, 1/2 and 1/1 cards, for obvious reasons.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

There are some inferential mathematical studies of the success rates of certain 'social influencer' breakers at finding significant insert cards that conclude that the likelihood of them actually finding the cards they found at random is practically zero.... we as collectors are asking questions that I never, ever thought I would consider when I started collecting Topps cards in the last Ice Age. Used to pick up a pack every morning on my way to school in Bedrock.

Originally Posted by packs

The last comment on that thread is the most telling and probably explains a lot of what is being seen as shady. If you buy a case of product you only need to open the first or second boxes of the product to predict where the hits are.

I don't think that the issue is with breakers making hits. They order enough cases to hit impressive inserts. But when one breaker (Backyard Breaks) hits two or three of the most expensive cards of the most significant players in a single year, out of different product, it becomes apparent that they are being fed the best cases. Because statistically, they should have one or zero in a year.

I would think that Fanatics could further heighten demand by making these cards available to the general public. The reason being, I would never enter a break. And because I know I will never hit the best 1/1 because the system is rigged, I choose not to buy boxes. I will buy singles of what I want only.