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  #1  
Old 01-04-2023, 04:00 PM
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bnorth bnorth is online now
Ben North
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Quote:
Originally Posted by packs View Post
I wouldn't argue that idea.

But on the mathematics side of things; I've bought into enough breaks that it should be mathematical impossible for me to do as badly as I have (haha). But alas, reality is real.
What are the odds of winning in a group break on average? I have only been in a couple vintage set breaks and the chances of winning or even breaking even in them seemed to be extremely low.
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Old 01-04-2023, 04:24 PM
packs packs is offline
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Well it depends on product and what you’re looking to spend. Most of the modern breaks are randomized teams. So you bid to win the chance to either spin a wheel with all 30 teams on it or pick a card from a deck (these are the most common ways to draw). If you buy a spot early when there are the most teams left you usually pay the least and might hit the big team. If you wait till all the bad teams are weeded out the prices go up because there are less bad hits.

It’s always luck of the draw because it’s easy to have the best team and not hit. But if you’re willing to spend you can buy into something like a case break and have a decent shot at hitting something. Some sets have better checklists than others too. The Bowman 2022 Draft boxes that just came out sells for big dollars but has a higher number of good teams and good players than usual. A lot of breakers are doing pick your team drafts for those though and setting the price for a specific team because the boxes are so expensive.

Again, if you have the money to spend you can get into the higher priced divisional breaks too and increase your chances of hitting a player you want. You can buy the AL East, for example. For the super high end products it's usually a hit draft where the people buying in draw a number, say 1, and that means they either choose the first card from the box for themselves or get the first card pulled, depending on the break.

Last edited by packs; 01-04-2023 at 04:33 PM.
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Old 01-04-2023, 06:04 PM
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Snapolit1 Snapolit1 is offline
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What are the odds of winning in a group break on average? I have only been in a couple vintage set breaks and the chances of winning or even breaking even in them seemed to be extremely low.
Very very low. I have been in a bunch. Not impossible. First you need to pull an amazing card. Then you need BCG to give you a 9.5 at least. Not so easy. I've had some beautiful shiny cards that Beckett gave a 7.5.
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