New and Shiny - Market Manipulation

[BobC]

Originally Posted by BobbyVCP

There are lots of fake sales that they use to try and set a crazy value...These do not sell and they do not bother getting a refund for eBay fees. Then usually a day after they relist again using the exact same image...

We are in the process of showing these off at VCP so you can learn these sellers tactics and bid accordingly....

Good for you Bobby. I hope you are at least somewhat successful in ferreting out those occasions where this type of manipulation is being done, and can correct/adjust VCP records accordingly. Can't be easy though.

I remember just this past year coming across an obvious manipulation scheme where over the course of a month or so, people kept putting up 2002 Topps 206 Honus Wagner game used bat cards on Ebay. They rarely came up at all, and then suddenly there are 5 or 6 up for sale and selling over the course of a month or so, for prices from about $2K to $6K. A lot of the people, sellers and bidders, in these auctions were the same players. Even though Ebay hides the buyer's names/IDs, it is pretty easy to tell they are the same people by looking at the positive feedback counts given for each bidder/buyer. The one thing that stuck out to me was how when I kept looking back at the various sellers, none of them ever got any positive feedback for selling even one of these Wagner relic cards. Not a one!

The sales of these dropped off the map since then, with what looks like only one recent, legitimate sale of one of these Wagner relic cards via Ebay auction for $898.88 back on 10/26/2022. And in checking the seller's feedback, they did get a positive feedback report and listing from the buyer subsequent to the sale of that card, to help prove the sale's legitimacy. That $898.88 price is a whole lot different, and much more realistic, than the $2K - $6K prices a small batch of the exact same card was supposedly selling for just several months earlier. And usually there is at least one of these 2002 Topps 206 Wagner relic cards you can always find listed on Ebay for sale, but typically at a BIN in at least the $3K-$4K range. That prior year mini surge in sales of these Wagner relic cards on Ebay sure looked to be exactly the kind of market manipulation being discussed. I'm assuming that Ebay sales like those get picked up and then posted on some sites/platforms, like VCP, which others then use to determine current market value, correct? In this recent past case/instance though, it looks like the market manipulation ploy didn't work and others didn't suddenly start overpaying for that particular Wagner relic card.

I myself do not use or follow any of these market research tools, so am not 100% sure how they exactly work and specifically what information and sources they do draw their input from to use. Based on my own experience and what I've seen though, you kind of have to take everything you see nowadays from any outside sources with at least a small grain of salt, and use a lot of your own common sense and experience in deciding what a certain card/item is worth to you, and therefore what you're willing to pay/bid for it.

I've never heard anything but great statements and feedback regarding Bobby's VCP site, even though I don't use it myself. Anything you can do to help police this kind of market manipulation crap would be a huge boon to people in the hobby. Good luck and best wishes to you in your efforts going forward.

[Tabe]

A few thoughts:

1) Mike Trout is already a HOFer and all-time great. 40 homers last year and people saw it as an off-year.

2} there's absolutely market manipulation going on. Does anybody still think those twin $750k Fleer Jordan sales were fully legit?

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by Tabe

2} there's absolutely market manipulation going on. Does anybody still think those twin $750k Fleer Jordan sales were fully legit?

I didn't address this, because it's not new, shiny, or a manufactured scarcity card. But yes, those were definitely manipulated. That and the fact that a large percentage of PSA/BGS 9-10 86 Fleer Jordans have been trimmed/altered makes them a scammer's paradise already.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by swarmee

I didn't address this, because it's not new, shiny, or a manufactured scarcity card. But yes, those were definitely manipulated. That and the fact that a large percentage of PSA/BGS 9-10 86 Fleer Jordans have been trimmed/altered makes them a scammer's paradise already.

How do you know they were manipulated as opposed to really stupid bids by people with an inelastic demand curve who fell for the hard sell?

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

How do you know they were manipulated as opposed to really stupid bids by people with an inelastic demand curve who fell for the hard sell?

I believe it was pump and dumped by the youtube personalities like Geoff Wilson and Gary Vee. Yes, the cards got paid for, but they were a result of a vicious cycle of shill bidding over the course of a couple years.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by swarmee

I believe it was pump and dumped by the youtube personalities like Geoff Wilson and Gary Vee. Yes, the cards got paid for, but they were a result of a vicious cycle of shill bidding over the course of a couple years.

Ah OK. So real sales, but at prices that were the end result of prior manipulation. I don't understand the whole influencer culture. All I know is that people send me countless youtube videos of guys with beards and tshirts taking about the modern card market.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Ah OK. So real sales, but at prices that were the end result of prior manipulation.

I think they were the START of manipulation. The money was in the hundreds of sales that came after.

[BobbyVCP]

Originally Posted by BobC

Good for you Bobby. I hope you are at least somewhat successful in ferreting out those occasions where this type of manipulation is being done, and can correct/adjust VCP records accordingly. Can't be easy though.

I remember just this past year coming across an obvious manipulation scheme where over the course of a month or so, people kept putting up 2002 Topps 206 Honus Wagner game used bat cards on Ebay. They rarely came up at all, and then suddenly there are 5 or 6 up for sale and selling over the course of a month or so, for prices from about $2K to $6K. A lot of the people, sellers and bidders, in these auctions were the same players. Even though Ebay hides the buyer's names/IDs, it is pretty easy to tell they are the same people by looking at the positive feedback counts given for each bidder/buyer. The one thing that stuck out to me was how when I kept looking back at the various sellers, none of them ever got any positive feedback for selling even one of these Wagner relic cards. Not a one!

The sales of these dropped off the map since then, with what looks like only one recent, legitimate sale of one of these Wagner relic cards via Ebay auction for $898.88 back on 10/26/2022. And in checking the seller's feedback, they did get a positive feedback report and listing from the buyer subsequent to the sale of that card, to help prove the sale's legitimacy. That $898.88 price is a whole lot different, and much more realistic, than the $2K - $6K prices a small batch of the exact same card was supposedly selling for just several months earlier. And usually there is at least one of these 2002 Topps 206 Wagner relic cards you can always find listed on Ebay for sale, but typically at a BIN in at least the $3K-$4K range. That prior year mini surge in sales of these Wagner relic cards on Ebay sure looked to be exactly the kind of market manipulation being discussed. I'm assuming that Ebay sales like those get picked up and then posted on some sites/platforms, like VCP, which others then use to determine current market value, correct? In this recent past case/instance though, it looks like the market manipulation ploy didn't work and others didn't suddenly start overpaying for that particular Wagner relic card.

I myself do not use or follow any of these market research tools, so am not 100% sure how they exactly work and specifically what information and sources they do draw their input from to use. Based on my own experience and what I've seen though, you kind of have to take everything you see nowadays from any outside sources with at least a small grain of salt, and use a lot of your own common sense and experience in deciding what a certain card/item is worth to you, and therefore what you're willing to pay/bid for it.

I've never heard anything but great statements and feedback regarding Bobby's VCP site, even though I don't use it myself. Anything you can do to help police this kind of market manipulation crap would be a huge boon to people in the hobby. Good luck and best wishes to you in your efforts going forward.

We are in the process of building out something using AI to spot the Re-Listers\Shillers, etc....95% of the time they are using the same image and relisting the item within 10 days or less...once built it will take each days new listing and see if that seller sold the same card in 14 days or less. If there is a match then it will check the 2 images and if the same the first sale will be highlighted in yellow and tagged.

[BobbyVCP]

Originally Posted by BobC

Good for you Bobby. I hope you are at least somewhat successful in ferreting out those occasions where this type of manipulation is being done, and can correct/adjust VCP records accordingly. Can't be easy though.

I remember just this past year coming across an obvious manipulation scheme where over the course of a month or so, people kept putting up 2002 Topps 206 Honus Wagner game used bat cards on Ebay. They rarely came up at all, and then suddenly there are 5 or 6 up for sale and selling over the course of a month or so, for prices from about $2K to $6K. A lot of the people, sellers and bidders, in these auctions were the same players. Even though Ebay hides the buyer's names/IDs, it is pretty easy to tell they are the same people by looking at the positive feedback counts given for each bidder/buyer. The one thing that stuck out to me was how when I kept looking back at the various sellers, none of them ever got any positive feedback for selling even one of these Wagner relic cards. Not a one!

The sales of these dropped off the map since then, with what looks like only one recent, legitimate sale of one of these Wagner relic cards via Ebay auction for $898.88 back on 10/26/2022. And in checking the seller's feedback, they did get a positive feedback report and listing from the buyer subsequent to the sale of that card, to help prove the sale's legitimacy. That $898.88 price is a whole lot different, and much more realistic, than the $2K - $6K prices a small batch of the exact same card was supposedly selling for just several months earlier. And usually there is at least one of these 2002 Topps 206 Wagner relic cards you can always find listed on Ebay for sale, but typically at a BIN in at least the $3K-$4K range. That prior year mini surge in sales of these Wagner relic cards on Ebay sure looked to be exactly the kind of market manipulation being discussed. I'm assuming that Ebay sales like those get picked up and then posted on some sites/platforms, like VCP, which others then use to determine current market value, correct? In this recent past case/instance though, it looks like the market manipulation ploy didn't work and others didn't suddenly start overpaying for that particular Wagner relic card.

I myself do not use or follow any of these market research tools, so am not 100% sure how they exactly work and specifically what information and sources they do draw their input from to use. Based on my own experience and what I've seen though, you kind of have to take everything you see nowadays from any outside sources with at least a small grain of salt, and use a lot of your own common sense and experience in deciding what a certain card/item is worth to you, and therefore what you're willing to pay/bid for it.

I've never heard anything but great statements and feedback regarding Bobby's VCP site, even though I don't use it myself. Anything you can do to help police this kind of market manipulation crap would be a huge boon to people in the hobby. Good luck and best wishes to you in your efforts going forward.

We are in the process of building out something using AI to spot the Re-Listers\Shillers, etc....95% of the time they are using the same image and relisting the item within 10 days or less...once built it will take each days new listing and see if that seller sold the same card in 14 days or less. If there is a match then it will check the 2 images and if the same the first sale will be highlighted in yellow and tagged.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by BobbyVCP

We are in the process of building out something using AI to spot the Re-Listers\Shillers, etc....95% of the time they are using the same image and relisting the item within 10 days or less...once built it will take each days new listing and see if that seller sold the same card in 14 days or less. If there is a match then it will check the 2 images and if the same the first sale will be highlighted in yellow and tagged.

That is great news Bobby, and good for you and your app, and everyone out there using it. I know that regardless of what you do, you can never be 100% perfect and catch each and every possible occasion where sales are false and/or otherwise being manipulated. But it is great to hear that people like yourself, and the companies you own/operate, are trying to implement new and updated procedures and safeguards to fight those working to inappropriately manipulate the card market/hobby. Kudos to you, and wishing you great success in your efforts. I know just from your reputation that your efforts will prove thorough, and fruitful. Be sure to keep us posted on how things are going, and what you and your crew are finding. It is people like you that help to make this hobby better for so many.

And before I start getting crap from some, I don't personally know Bobby, I don't work for Bobby, he's not and never has been a client of mine, and I honestly as said before, have never used his app myself. His reputation speaks a lot for him and his app though, and I am all for anyone looking to help those in this wonderful hobby, and trying to stamp out manipulation and other somewhat shady or questionable activities that seem to cover and affect a large part of this hobby/industry nowadays.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by BobC

That is great news Bobby, and good for you and your app, and everyone out there using it. I know that regardless of what you do, you can never be 100% perfect and catch each and every possible occasion where sales are false and/or otherwise being manipulated. But it is great to hear that people like yourself, and the companies you own/operate, are trying to implement new and updated procedures and safeguards to fight those working to inappropriately manipulate the card market/hobby. Kudos to you, and wishing you great success in your efforts. I know just from your reputation that your efforts will prove thorough, and fruitful. Be sure to keep us posted on how things are going, and what you and your crew are finding. It is people like you that help to make this hobby better for so many.



And before I start getting crap from some, I don't personally know Bobby, I don't work for Bobby, he's not and never has been a client of mine, and I honestly as said before, have never used his app myself. His reputation speaks a lot for him and his app though, and I am all for anyone looking to help those in this wonderful hobby, and trying to stamp out manipulation and other somewhat shady or questionable activities that seem to cover and affect a large part of this hobby/industry nowadays.

TLDR, but great idea, BobbyVCP. I appreciate what you guys are doing.

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