1952 Rosen Mantle SGC 9.5 Final Price – Too high, too low, just right?

[Jetsfan]

I hope this isn’t hijacking the thread, but I am curious where folks think the 52T Mantle will be at price wise in the next 5-10 years. I personally think that given the significant price increases across the board in the last few years that we may be in a few years of price stabilization. Hard to envision much of a price decrease in the next 5-10 years. However, I do share the concerns mentioned by some that current teenagers may not hold the card in the same esteem that many in the 30-70 year olds do. I do think it would be fun to come back to this thread over the next few years and see how close our predictions are.

Adam

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by Jetsfan

I hope this isn’t hijacking the thread, but I am curious where folks think the 52T Mantle will be at price wise in the next 5-10 years. I personally think that given the significant price increases across the board in the last few years that we may be in a few years of price stabilization. Hard to envision much of a price decrease in the next 5-10 years. However, I do share the concerns mentioned by some that current teenagers may not hold the card in the same esteem that many in the 30-70 year olds do. I do think it would be fun to come back to this thread over the next few years and see how close our predictions are.

Adam

Slower but still steady increases is my prediction on the icon cards like this. I never saw Ruth or Cobb play but still hold their stuff in high esteem. Who knows though.

[molenick]

For what it's worth, here are the latest sales from VCP for an Uncle Jacks Ruth. Some are quite old but a PSA 2 sold for nearly $59K a few months ago.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by molenick

For what it's worth, here are the latest sales from VCP for an Uncle Jacks Ruth. Some are quite old but a PSA 2 sold for nearly $59K a few months ago.

Yeah based on that sale the price seemed right to me.

[molenick]

Sorry....I posted the Ruth sale in the wrong thread...it was meant for the "Insane Babe Ruth Card" thread.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Jetsfan

I hope this isn’t hijacking the thread, but I am curious where folks think the 52T Mantle will be at price wise in the next 5-10 years. I personally think that given the significant price increases across the board in the last few years that we may be in a few years of price stabilization. Hard to envision much of a price decrease in the next 5-10 years. However, I do share the concerns mentioned by some that current teenagers may not hold the card in the same esteem that many in the 30-70 year olds do. I do think it would be fun to come back to this thread over the next few years and see how close our predictions are.

Adam

I'm going to go a bit contrarian and suggest that there's likely to be a drop in prices, at least overall. For blue chip pieces like 52T Mantle, particularly in high grades, maybe not so much. But overall, I expect prices will come down a bit.

A big part of my thinking is that prices have run up so much over the last 2 years, give or take. Depending on which basket of cards you look at, and how you do your math, the increases are pretty easily 200%-500%, and sometimes more.

When I think about the underlying factors that have contributed to the jumps in pricing, the factors that mostly come to mind are:
1) People coming back into the hobby because they had extra time on their hands during the pandemic.
2) Some pumpers jumping into the action because that's what they do.
3) Lots of people with a lot of extra cash on hand.
4) Every asset class, and I do mean every asset has been on a crazy run over the last 2 years. Okay, maybe there's a couple that missed out. But almost every asset class.

Certainly it will be interesting to see whether #1 has any staying power. Certainly #2 won't be around for long, and arguably a lot them are already gone.

I think for #3 and #4, I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of the recent runups in asset prices more generally start to unwind. Certainly most assets have come off of their highs, even including housing. But there's still a lot of froth in a lot of markets. If we hit a soft patch in the economy, or especially a major recession, and people who are crazy leveraged end up having to repay their debts, then there will be a lot more asset sales, and prices will come down. Once they start coming down, that process can accelerate, and really start to pick up steam. The number of people who end up having $100k+ to drop on a luxury like sports cards and memorabilia will decline in a hurry.

When you start looking around at the broader market, including basketball cards, soccer cards, game-used memorabilia, pokemon cards, football cards, just to name a few, there is a lot out there, and if you started counting it all up, there are a lot of pieces that are 6 figures or more. A lot.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not predicting a collapse in the market, where we'll go back to the good old days of trading 52T Mantles for our lunch money, your mortgage payment will be $30 a month, and candy bars will be 5 cents. But I wouldn't be surprised to see baseball card prices broadly fall by 20%-50% if the economy goes badly enough. And even if the economy gets by without much trouble, then prices could still easily pull back 10%-20%.

Bottom line for me is that there's just so many pieces trading for such high prices, there's really only one way to go, and it's not up.

[Lorewalker]

This just in from Heritage

We are excited to offer five examples of 1952 Topps, two of 1951 Bowman, and two of 1952 Berk Ross. The 1952 Topps Mantle card was released in short supply and survives in numbers that nearly equate to pre-war issues, and has arguably become the most iconic card of the post-war period.

I am not shocked there are 5 1952 Topps coming I am shocked they did not get 14 of them. Anyway the part that confused me was the part in bold. I have no idea what the graded population is for the 52 Topps but I have always thought of it as a card that is abundant. And the graded examples do not reflect the over all population of them. I know of several collectors whose examples are still ungraded.

[Republicaninmass]

In no other time in oir hobby has an auction house accepted more than 1 or not a max of 2 of the same cards in the same auction even remotely near each other in grade. Its become a game of hot potato. Very few are holding these assets even though the ability for increased prices is so high. Aside from Signed ones, I think we're seen the top with the 9.5 sgc Rosen. In typical Rosen Fashion!

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

This just in from Heritage

We are excited to offer five examples of 1952 Topps, two of 1951 Bowman, and two of 1952 Berk Ross. The 1952 Topps Mantle card was released in short supply and survives in numbers that nearly equate to pre-war issues, and has arguably become the most iconic card of the post-war period.

I am not shocked there are 5 1952 Topps coming I am shocked they did not get 14 of them. Anyway the part that confused me was the part in bold. I have no idea what the graded population is for the 52 Topps but I have always thought of it as a card that is abundant. And the graded examples do not reflect the over all population of them. I know of several collectors whose examples are still ungraded.

PSA has 1,849 graded copies alone. It is available in large supply. The 52 Topps high's are tough, only in comparison to other Topps series. Dozens or Hundreds are for sale every year, year in and year out.

They've graded 2,510 of the 51 Bowman high Mantle's for comparison, 4,895 of the 1953 Topps card from the very common first series. Neither as popular as the 52 of course, but expensive cards that tend to get graded at a high rate.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by G1911

PSA has 1,849 graded copies alone. It is available in large supply. The 52 Topps high's are tough, only in comparison to other Topps series. Dozens or Hundreds are for sale every year, year in and year out.

They've graded 2,510 of the 51 Bowman high Mantle's for comparison, 4,895 of the 1953 Topps card from the very common first series. Neither as popular as the 52 of course, but expensive cards that tend to get graded at a high rate.

Demand absolutely exceeds supply but nothing limited about their availability. Gee I hope that fact is not going to upset any of the pumpers. I would hate to ruin a Sunday, especially one that falls on a holiday weekend.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Demand absolutely exceeds supply but nothing limited about their availability. Gee I hope that fact is not going to upset any of the pumpers. I would hate to ruin a Sunday, especially one that falls on a holiday weekend.

Another gem from our resident economist.

[Forever Young]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Demand absolutely exceeds supply but nothing limited about their availability. Gee I hope that fact is not going to upset any of the pumpers. I would hate to ruin a Sunday, especially one that falls on a holiday weekend.

“ Well you too might be a tad sensitive because your interpretation is reaching. We all know that once something sells for big money, examples flood to the market. THAT is what was meant. Not some hidden attempt to insult or get a rise out of anyone.”


“Not some hidden attempt to insult or get a rose out of anyone”


Oh of course not… you seem very sincere.

By the way… I’m totally unhinged right now.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Forever Young

“ Well you too might be a tad sensitive because your interpretation is reaching. We all know that once something sells for big money, examples flood to the market. THAT is what was meant. Not some hidden attempt to insult or get a rise out of anyone.”


“Not some hidden attempt to insult or get a rose out of anyone”


Oh of course not… you seem very sincere.

By the way… I’m totally unhinged right now.

Please stay hinged. I am all out of glue.
.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Forever Young

“ Well you too might be a tad sensitive because your interpretation is reaching. We all know that once something sells for big money, examples flood to the market. THAT is what was meant. Not some hidden attempt to insult or get a rise out of anyone.”


“Not some hidden attempt to insult or get a rose out of anyone”


Oh of course not… you seem very sincere.

By the way… I’m totally unhinged right now.

Well ya might not be unhinged but even you should ask why you are bothering. you have taken things out of context so there is nothing to address here.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

I am not shocked there are 5 1952 Topps coming I am shocked they did not get 14 of them.

You guys are acting like Matty "got unhinged" from just a mention of some facts, but I think it's the tone that bothered him. I've seen quotes like this above (another was something like expressing "that second year double print" as a pejorative), and they probably come off like someone taking a shot at the desirability of his favorite card.

Not saying that it merits an emotional reaction. Just that there's a little more to it than simply someone getting upset from unfavorable facts.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

You guys are acting like Matty "got unhinged" from just a mention of some facts, but I think it's the tone that bothered him. I've seen quotes like this above (another was something like expressing "that second year double print" as a pejorative), and they probably come off like someone taking a shot at the desirability of his favorite card.

Not saying that it merits an emotional reaction. Just that there's a little more to it than simply someone getting upset from unfavorable facts.

Exactly

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

You guys are acting like Matty "got unhinged" from just a mention of some facts, but I think it's the tone that bothered him. I've seen quotes like this above (another was something like expressing "that second year double print" as a pejorative), and they probably come off like someone taking a shot at the desirability of his favorite card.

Not saying that it merits an emotional reaction. Just that there's a little more to it than simply someone getting upset from unfavorable facts.

Well you too might be a tad sensitive because your interpretation is reaching. We all know that once something sells for big money, examples flood to the market. THAT is what was meant. Not some hidden attempt to insult or get a rise out of anyone.

And please recall that any factual comments I made that upset people were written having already said or shortly thereafter stated the 52 Mantle is an awesome card and one that I too own.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Well you too might be a tad sensitive because your interpretation is reaching. We all know that once something sells for big money, examples flood to the market. THAT is what was meant. Not some hidden attempt to insult or get a rise out of anyone.

And please recall that any factual comments I made that upset people were written having already said or shortly thereafter stated the 52 Mantle is an awesome card and one that I too own.

As mentioned, it doesn't merit a reaction. And I never said that you meant to get a rise. Just that the occasional perceived pejorative tone might get one regardless from someone as emotional as Matty. Surely you can see how a "surprised there aren't fourteen of them instead of five" quip comes off as having some disdain, rather than just a basic mention of facts. That's not me reaching or too being a bit sensitive; I don't mind what anyone says about the Mantle. It's just noticing something that's fairly obvious

[G1911]

The discussion of the volume up for sale (do we need to pretend there aren’t a ton up for sale to smooth peoples feelings?) occurred days after the freak out. Nobody did anything more than not participate in the pump and observe things that are demonstrably true (the toning, the back centering, it’s not a rookie, it is a DP, it has a lot of copies out there). He accused people of “bile” and doing things that no reading can possibly produce, like attacking Mickey Mantle (I’m happy to stand correct if anyone can find this post). Then he flipped out when asked to ID these posts he exaggerated to attack.

I do not see any rule or reasonable reason that people may not or should not post factually correct statements about a card that does not serve the interest of pumping and juicing it. People’s emotional response to not everything in the world adopting their exact perspective, while hardly even being negative about the 52 Mantle at all, only the grade of this particular one in comparison to SGC’s public and published standards, is on them.

Disclaimer again: Mickey Mantle is great. The 1952 Topps set is great. The 1952 Topps Mickey is a cool image and a great card

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

As mentioned, it doesn't merit a reaction. And I never said that you meant to get a rise. Just that the occasional perceived pejorative tone might get one regardless from someone as emotional as Matty. Surely you can see how a "surprised there aren't fourteen of them instead of five" quip comes off as having some disdain, rather than just a basic mention of facts. That's not me reaching or too being a bit sensitive; I don't mind what anyone says about the Mantle. It's just noticing something that's fairly obvious

I cannot control how you or anyone else feels or reacts/responds to things I might post here. I know what my intent was. Clearly you do not want to accept that so you are essentially telling me that I am a liar, which is fine. If someone wants to get emotional over a post, which is a bit irrational, then so be it. I guess that is their...choice but they should be prepared then for whatever comes next.

And to I never even thought my "quip" would have been interpreted any other way than the way it was intended. I honestly felt that we would see an onslaught of listings on eBay and elsewhere of people trying to cash in on the 52 Mantle fervor. It has taken place with the T206 Wagner, signed 33 Goudey Ruths and Gehrigs (some of which may have been signed in the last 2 years) and there are others.

As an aside, maybe the time has come where we should all consider having complete disclaimers at the end of actual posts on "controversial" topics. Might cool some tempers.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

I have no idea what the graded population is for the 52 Topps but I have always thought of it as a card that is abundant. And the graded examples do not reflect the over all population of them. I know of several collectors whose examples are still ungraded.

I've had two graded for consignors this year so clearly there are plenty of ungraded examples out there!

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

I've had two graded for consignors this year so clearly there are plenty of ungraded examples out there!

WE all agree that the population is not totally known and we know many who have ungraded cards that over time will add to the supply.

However with the demand for them so high I do not think the supply can every truly catch up thus keeping the prices high.

With it being a truly iconic card and treated that why by everyone it will always be in demand and at all price points (just a matter of what we can afford or cannot afford)