1952 Rosen Mantle SGC 9.5 Final Price – Too high, too low, just right?

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by G1911

I personally do not agree that there is anything wrong with spending $12 million on a card, though I never would and do not care at all what anyone but myself does with their money. You want to spend a mansion’s worth of money on a mass produced cardboard picture, go ahead. God bless America.

However, the “butt-hurt” and “bent out of shape” replies are people openly cheering for higher and higher prices, not these folks. We’ve had two people lose it, both clearly on this side. None of the people who have said they think spending $12,000,000 on a card is absurd have flipped out, cussed out people who were factually correct but corrected their BS, or posted dishonest accusatory rants straight up lying about what has actually been said in the transcripts here.

100% agreed. I stated on one of the various threads, that may or may not have contained a member or two losing his shit, that the 12.6 sale was great for the hobby. Also stated based on the scans that the card appeared over graded. That someone can spend that on a card is incredible and while it potentially makes it harder for me to buy stuff, it shows that the card industry, which not long ago was simply a hobby, is being taken very seriously.

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

100% agreed. I stated on one of the various threads, that may or may not have contained a member or two losing his shit, that the 12.6 sale was great for the hobby. Also stated based on the scans that the card appeared over graded. That someone can spend that on a card is incredible and while it potentially makes it harder for me to buy stuff, it shows that the card industry, which not long ago was simply a hobby, is being taken very seriously.

It's not great for the hobby.

It's great for sellers and auction houses and holders of Ruth, Wagner & Mantle.

It's pretty awful for collectors.

They have just found out they will never get certain cards...and possibly all levels, PSA1 thru 10.

Now that being said collectors HAVE to adjust their mindset and go to Authentic, Altered, Miscut, etc. If they want these cards. It's still the same card, just a lot worse shape, kind of like your wife when you first married her.

You still love her, she just ain't Mint10 anymore, get used to it, live with it.

[Peter_Spaeth]

We will never know, but it would be fascinating to know what the sale price would have been if it had been graded a 9 (probably more accurate given the toning) and not designated as the world's greatest 311. The cynic in me says a significant amount less.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

We will never know, but it would be fascinating to know what the sale price would have been if it had been graded a 9 (probably more accurate given the toning) and not designated as the world's greatest 311. The cynic in me says a significant amount less.

With a PSA 8 going for almost 3 million quite some time ago now. I think if it had been a PSA 9 with the same provenance it may well still have done 12.6.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

With a PSA 8 going for almost 3 million quite some time ago now. I think if it had been a PSA 9 with the same provenance it may well still have done 12.6.

SGC 9 is what my hypothetical was meant to say though. Still the same?

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

SGC 9 is what my hypothetical was meant to say though. Still the same?

It's an interesting philosophical debate. Would buyers pay slightly less for this card if it were in an SGC 9.0 holder instead of SGC 9.5?

My gut tells me that there is probably a difference. But I'm guessing it might not be as much as we would expect. I wouldn't be surprised if it still got to $10M+ even at SGC 9.0 instead of SGC 9.5.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by raulus

It's an interesting philosophical debate. Would buyers pay slightly less for this card if it were in an SGC 9.0 holder instead of SGC 9.5?

My gut tells me that there is probably a difference. But I'm guessing it might not be as much as we would expect. I wouldn't be surprised if it still got to $10M+ even at SGC 9.0 instead of SGC 9.5.

Maybe but at SGC 9 it probably doesn't get a flip saying it's the best one in the history of the universe. Would that matter?

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

It's not great for the hobby.

It's great for sellers and auction houses and holders of Ruth, Wagner & Mantle.

It's pretty awful for collectors.

They have just found out they will never get certain cards...and possibly all levels, PSA1 thru 10.

Now that being said collectors HAVE to adjust their mindset and go to Authentic, Altered, Miscut, etc. If they want these cards. It's still the same card, just a lot worse shape, kind of like your wife when you first married her.

You still love her, she just ain't Mint10 anymore, get used to it, live with it.

I understand your perspective but I do not think that every card in grades 1 - 10 will now jump up because someone spent 12.6 on an over graded 52 Mantle. The huge money that has poured in has been on elite caliber cards that guys like you and me were never going to be in the market for. Does this mean that a 54 T Snider in PSA 6.5 will be unattainable?

The market overall has already seen huge appreciation over the last 2 plus years. And like many things that go up they can go down and back up again. For most cards, prices are down sharply from where they were at the highs, yet we still have at least 2 people who did not care and slugged it out for the 9.5 Mantle. Sales of T206 Wagners have gone through the roof too. If you are referring to those cards, you are right. Most collectors are SOL. But they have been SOL well before the sale of the 52 Mantle in the 9.5.

Bottom line is that nothing stays the same. Change is inevitable. Adapt or be left behind. I have made my choice.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

I understand your perspective but I do not think that every card in grades 1 - 10 will now jump up because someone spent 12.6 on an over graded 52 Mantle. The huge money that has poured in has been on elite caliber cards that guys like you and me were never going to be in the market for. Does this mean that a 54 T Snider in PSA 6.5 will be unattainable?

The market overall has already seen huge appreciation over the last 2 plus years. And like many things that go up they can go down and back up again. For most cards, prices are down sharply from where they were at the highs, yet we still have at least 2 people who did not care and slugged it out for the 9.5 Mantle. Sales of T206 Wagners have gone through the roof too. If you are referring to those cards, you are right. Most collectors are SOL. But they have been SOL well before the sale of the 52 Mantle in the 9.5.

Bottom line is that nothing stays the same. Change is inevitable. Adapt or be left behind. I have made my choice.

Chase the one I feel skewed the market and made it untouchable for a while for many was the SGC 5 52 Mantle Sale in REA last month for $306,000. That killed a lot of guys' chances for the time being for being able to obtain one in a 5 or less. I feel it’s the reason why guys are asking, and cards are selling in major auction houses the same grade and less, grades 1-5, for ridiculous numbers for grades 1-3.

To me that SGC 5 1952 Mantle was the game changer. I can’t make any sense of the price it sold for, $306,000.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Chase the one I feel skewed the market and made it untouchable for a while for many was the SGC 5 52 Mantle Sale in REA last month for $306,000. That killed a lot of guys' chances for the time being for being able to obtain one in a 5 or less. I feel it’s the reason why guys are asking, and cards are selling in major auction houses the same grade and less, grades 1-5, for ridiculous numbers for grades 1-3.

To me that SGC 5 1952 Mantle was the game changer. I can’t make any sense of the price it sold for, $306,000.

Man, in the day who knew, eh John? Even with a relatively small truck could have backed it up.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Man, in the day who knew, eh John? Even with a relatively small truck could have backed it up.

Agree, and less than 3 years ago, lol. I just can’t get the $306,000 for a SGC 5 52 Mantle.

[Eric72]

I think some people are thinking along these lines:

Anyone who can be suckered by hype and overpay for a misgraded card doesn't deserve $12.6 million in disposable hobby income.

It's a flawed mindset, of course. However, I can see more than a few people adopting it.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Agree, and less than 3 years ago, lol. I just can’t get the $306,000 for a SGC 5 52 Mantle.

It's hard to get one's head around, elite centering and all.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

100% agreed. I stated on one of the various threads, that may or may not have contained a member or two losing his shit, that the 12.6 sale was great for the hobby. Also stated based on the scans that the card appeared over graded. That someone can spend that on a card is incredible and while it potentially makes it harder for me to buy stuff, it shows that the card industry, which not long ago was simply a hobby, is being taken very seriously.

No issue with $12.6 million for a baseball card. My only issue is that the card is overgraded (which is not based on my opinion of what a 9.5 should be, but the actual published standards of the grader themselves who have ignored their own standards for some reason. Can't image what that reason is...) and the laughable appeal to Mr. Mint's authority. The pumpers will not only ignore any reality that doesn't sync up with the agenda, they will go ballistic if confronted with it.


Whether it's good or not, I'd say it's probably good for the industry and bad for the hobby. Depends entirely on how one sees cards, as a relaxed hobby or an industry to generate revenues.

Neither of which, personally, I find wrong or assign any moral value too. I've never been in the market for a 52 Mantle in EX or better condition so it doesn't affect me, I'm just again complete bullshit being passed off as true. Apparently this is a hot take in the hobby these days. As there is no moral value in this being about profiteering or 'true collecting' people could just be honest about their objective instead of making crap up, denying blatant facts, lying about what others have said, and acting as if Mr. Mint's marketing statements are objective reality. "I don't care if SGC has overhyped the grade and Mr. Mint was a lying scumbag, I believe this sale will help pump the top end of the market and I stand to profit from this; what's good for me is good for me and that is what matters to me" would be a reasonable take.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by G1911

No issue with $12.6 million for a baseball card. My only issue is that the card is overgraded (which is not based on my opinion of what a 9.5 should be, but the actual published standards of the grader themselves who have ignored their own standards for some reason. Can't image what that reason is...) and the laughable appeal to Mr. Mint's authority. The pumpers will not only ignore any reality that doesn't sync up with the agenda, they will go ballistic if confronted with it.


Whether it's good or not, I'd say it's probably good for the industry and bad for the hobby. Depends entirely on how one sees cards, as a relaxed hobby or an industry to generate revenues.

Neither of which, personally, I find wrong or assign any moral value too. I've never been in the market for a 52 Mantle in EX or better condition so it doesn't affect me, I'm just again complete bullshit being passed off as true. Apparently this is a hot take in the hobby these days. As there is no moral value in this being about profiteering or 'true collecting' people could just be honest about their objective instead of making crap up, denying blatant facts, lying about what others have said, and acting as if Mr. Mint's marketing statements are objective reality. "I don't care if SGC has overhyped the grade and Mr. Mint was a lying scumbag, I believe this sale will help pump the top end of the market and I stand to profit from this; what's good for me is good for me and that is what matters to me" would be a reasonable take.

Yes to this. The card is overgraded and was a PR move for everyone involved. Is this any worse or any better than the BS that takes place with TPG slabbing bad cards hand over fist for insiders? The whole grading game is a steaming pile. The grade of 9.5 simply illustrates what we all know but fewer can admit, that grading is far from perfect. It does permit for manipulation of the market/hobby/industry when not done 100% ethically.

I think the sale shows health in the world of cards. With any market that fluctuates, the best time to buy is not the best time to sell. When prices were more stagnant it was always a great time to buy and sell. Now it is a timing thing. Now you have pumpers who unhinge easily, investors and flippers. The hobby is no longer just dealers and collectors. There is more volatility and there is more money.

Like you I am not in this area of the hobby. Doing 5 figures on a card would be a stretch for me. I still like seeing vintage cards like this one sell for obscene numbers. I am not envious or angry that I cannot play too. Happy doing what I do the way I do it.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Happy doing what I do the way I do it.

This. Otherwise, time to find another hobby.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

This. Otherwise, time to find another hobby.

Exactly. We must always be able adapt.

[Jetsfan]

I hope this isn’t hijacking the thread, but I am curious where folks think the 52T Mantle will be at price wise in the next 5-10 years. I personally think that given the significant price increases across the board in the last few years that we may be in a few years of price stabilization. Hard to envision much of a price decrease in the next 5-10 years. However, I do share the concerns mentioned by some that current teenagers may not hold the card in the same esteem that many in the 30-70 year olds do. I do think it would be fun to come back to this thread over the next few years and see how close our predictions are.

Adam

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by Jetsfan

I hope this isn’t hijacking the thread, but I am curious where folks think the 52T Mantle will be at price wise in the next 5-10 years. I personally think that given the significant price increases across the board in the last few years that we may be in a few years of price stabilization. Hard to envision much of a price decrease in the next 5-10 years. However, I do share the concerns mentioned by some that current teenagers may not hold the card in the same esteem that many in the 30-70 year olds do. I do think it would be fun to come back to this thread over the next few years and see how close our predictions are.

Adam

Slower but still steady increases is my prediction on the icon cards like this. I never saw Ruth or Cobb play but still hold their stuff in high esteem. Who knows though.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Jetsfan

I hope this isn’t hijacking the thread, but I am curious where folks think the 52T Mantle will be at price wise in the next 5-10 years. I personally think that given the significant price increases across the board in the last few years that we may be in a few years of price stabilization. Hard to envision much of a price decrease in the next 5-10 years. However, I do share the concerns mentioned by some that current teenagers may not hold the card in the same esteem that many in the 30-70 year olds do. I do think it would be fun to come back to this thread over the next few years and see how close our predictions are.

Adam

I'm going to go a bit contrarian and suggest that there's likely to be a drop in prices, at least overall. For blue chip pieces like 52T Mantle, particularly in high grades, maybe not so much. But overall, I expect prices will come down a bit.

A big part of my thinking is that prices have run up so much over the last 2 years, give or take. Depending on which basket of cards you look at, and how you do your math, the increases are pretty easily 200%-500%, and sometimes more.

When I think about the underlying factors that have contributed to the jumps in pricing, the factors that mostly come to mind are:
1) People coming back into the hobby because they had extra time on their hands during the pandemic.
2) Some pumpers jumping into the action because that's what they do.
3) Lots of people with a lot of extra cash on hand.
4) Every asset class, and I do mean every asset has been on a crazy run over the last 2 years. Okay, maybe there's a couple that missed out. But almost every asset class.

Certainly it will be interesting to see whether #1 has any staying power. Certainly #2 won't be around for long, and arguably a lot them are already gone.

I think for #3 and #4, I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of the recent runups in asset prices more generally start to unwind. Certainly most assets have come off of their highs, even including housing. But there's still a lot of froth in a lot of markets. If we hit a soft patch in the economy, or especially a major recession, and people who are crazy leveraged end up having to repay their debts, then there will be a lot more asset sales, and prices will come down. Once they start coming down, that process can accelerate, and really start to pick up steam. The number of people who end up having $100k+ to drop on a luxury like sports cards and memorabilia will decline in a hurry.

When you start looking around at the broader market, including basketball cards, soccer cards, game-used memorabilia, pokemon cards, football cards, just to name a few, there is a lot out there, and if you started counting it all up, there are a lot of pieces that are 6 figures or more. A lot.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not predicting a collapse in the market, where we'll go back to the good old days of trading 52T Mantles for our lunch money, your mortgage payment will be $30 a month, and candy bars will be 5 cents. But I wouldn't be surprised to see baseball card prices broadly fall by 20%-50% if the economy goes badly enough. And even if the economy gets by without much trouble, then prices could still easily pull back 10%-20%.

Bottom line for me is that there's just so many pieces trading for such high prices, there's really only one way to go, and it's not up.