Proof that the market value for PSA and 'conserved' cards have dropped

[egbeachley]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Agree !!! Not taking anything away from the BO Board Detectives they have done a amazing job exposing this....
The issue to me is the tens of thousands of altered cards still residing in PSA Holders with number grades which haven't been exposed by blowout.
Never buy a holder buy a card :-)

Its way more than tens of thousands.

You are more likely to get a trimmed card by buying it graded by PSA vs buying it raw.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Assuming it's just total incompetence and not being complicit, how does Reza live with himself at this point? It must take a big dose of cognitive dissonance to get up and go to work.

[Promethius88]

Who said that outed cards have/will hold their value? I've read where some people believe that PSA cards, in general, will hold their value but nowhere did I read that outed cars would..... except for the T206 Wagner which is an anomaly in and of itself.

[drcy]

Originally Posted by Promethius88

Who said that outed cards have/will hold their value? I've read where some people believe that PSA cards, in general, will hold their value but nowhere did I read that outed cars would..... except for the T206 Wagner which is an anomaly in and of itself.

Considering they are representatives of the PSA's grading abilities and what currently resides in PSA holders, the outed cards and their values are representatives of the values of cards currently in PSA holders/labels.

If, for a completely arbitrary example, 50 percent of PSA cards are misgraded, you don't calculate the value of cards per label grade by removing the misgraded cards and calculating only the cards that are correctly graded, but calculating the value of all the cards. The margin of error in grading and authenticating isn't removed from financial calculations but an integral part of it.

As an admittedly very extreme example, you don't calculate the values of autographs with Coaches Corners COAs by calculating the values as if they were correctly authenticated or only by the ones they got correct. You calculate the values based on what they COAed and their worth. Thus, the misauthenticated PSA cards and the realization of the true market value are market examples of the values of cards in PSA holders and at that label grade.

If representative of the accuracy/reliability/true identities and grades of the cards currently in PSA holders (and I'll let others on this and other boards debate that point), a "$1000" PSA 9 card that turns out the be altered and is really worth $30 that is an example or data point where the PSA is worth $30. Many $1000 PSA9 cards out there and currently being bought and sold are actually worth $30, so you cannot say the average value of a PSA 9 is $1000. And as it's realized that more and more PSA9 cards out there are really worth $30, the known value of a PSA9 moves further and further down from the $1,000 and closer to the $30.

If PSA can get accurate at grading and alteration detection, then this will change. And maybe they will. But if they can't or don't or won't, the mistakes and BO outed cards are to be calculated into the market values of cards that are currently in PSA holders at a certain labeled grade.

In fact, it's right now a nonsensical exercise on its face to try to calculate the condition value of cards in PSA holders because no one knows what are the condition grades of the cards. One certainly can't go by the number on the labels. One might as well try to calculate the condition values of cards in black boxes. However, it is a logically objective, financial and mathematical fact that the average value of the cards themselves are worth less than the values of the grades on the labels. That we know with certainty.

[perezfan]

Great points, David...

But considering how difficult it is to “out” these cards, and the amount of time/research involved... we won’t know the true scope (or the real effect on pricing) for a very long time. God only knows how many more altered cards are yet to be uncovered, and how many are currently mired in collections.

If a given collector has no intention of selling, it could be decades before the altered card hits the market and becomes visible again. Perhaps by then, the PSA Slab will be rendered meaningless (or even seen as a detriment).

[drcy]

Correct.

The problem for the label investor is that the card comes with it

[hysell]

Also, keep in mind it's not just PSA ? Others {GRADING companies } have these over graded cards out there in the market , also ! PSA , might be taking the the hit for now, but they are NOT alone ? Thanks to all , that have keep up on this problem .

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by perezfan

Perhaps by then, the PSA Slab will be rendered meaningless (or even seen as a detriment).

They should always maintain their meaning: simple and attractive plastic slabs that allow you to collect cards that are different sizes and designs and stack them neatly on top of one another. You can even put an altered card in one of these and its plastic casing allows it to conform nicely to the standards of your set. I always liked this about PSA, and that their slabs are nice and thin.

[GeoPoto]

Originally Posted by drcy

In fact, it's right now a nonsensical exercise on its face to try to calculate the condition value of cards in PSA holders because no one knows what are the condition grades of the cards. One certainly can't go by the number on the labels. One might as well try to calculate the condition values of cards in black boxes..

You are losing me here. I think the market "trusts" PSA to assign a reasonable grade to each card presented to it. (The kind of corruption that is routinely alleged by posters is very hard to sustain in a public company). It is true that we don't know whether the card was doctored and if so how; but, we are reasonably confident that the card now presents at the cited grade level. Your overall point is a good one -- the Blowout saga has surely been a negative for the value of high-grade cards.

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[drcy]

If a card is altered, any number grade, except debatably 1, is incorrect, and the card is less valuable than an unaltered card in that number grade.

Humorously, PSA's own website states "Cards that have been trimmed have very little value." (link if you want to read for yourself, or copy for posterity) However, as was suggested in other thread, that line may be quietly removed at some point in the near future.

[seanofjapan]

I would expect that the value of most high dollar slabbed cards, altered or not, would take a hit for this. Every buyer now has to factor in the risk that every card at that end they buy might turn out to be altered. I would be curious after a couple of years of auction data post scandal becomes available to see how much that “We don’t trust PSA like we used to” discount is going to be.

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by drcy

If a card is altered, any number grade, except debatably 1, is incorrect, and the card is less valuable than an unaltered card in that number grade.

Humorously, PSA's own website states "Cards that have been trimmed have very little value." (link if you want to read for yourself, or copy for posterity) However, as was suggested in other thread, that line may be quietly removed at some point in the near future.

You’re eloquently stating the obvious.

[brob28]

Originally Posted by GeoPoto

You are losing me here. I think the market "trusts" PSA to assign a reasonable grade to each card presented to it. (The kind of corruption that is routinely alleged by posters is very hard to sustain in a public company). It is true that we don't know whether the card was doctored and if so how; but, we are reasonably confident that the card now presents at the cited grade level. Your overall point is a good one -- the Blowout saga has surely been a negative for the value of high-grade cards.

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George, I may be missing the point of your post, but I'd counter that while we can be reasonably confident that the card "presents" at the cited grade, it presents due to alteration and deception and thus is no where near the assigned grade. With or without corruption the market trust erodes.

[ullmandds]

i'd really like to know what's happening to the altered cards pwcc/psa is buying back as well.

THIS SHOULDNT BE A BIG SECRET...especially if they want we consumers to have any confidence that anything positive is happening.

[GeoPoto]

Originally Posted by brob28

George, I may be missing the point of your post, but I'd counter that while we can be reasonably confident that the card "presents" at the cited grade, it presents due to alteration and deception and thus is no where near the assigned grade. With or without corruption the market trust erodes.

Drcy (and you, I think) is addressing the case where a card is determined to be doctored in an unacceptable way. I'm trying to address the other graded cards that haven't been determined to be "altered", and probably never will. Taking doctoring in it's broadest sense to mean helping the card present as well as possible, we have to assume every graded card was doctored (at least soaked and cleaned). What we don't know is whether the doctoring is inside or outside the vaguely defined boundaries that affect it's legitimacy, and ultimately it's value. That uncertainty will weigh on values, but won't make the cards (near) worthless. The key driver of prices is (perceived) scarcity.

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[NYYFan63]

Originally Posted by Promethius88

Who said that outed cards have/will hold their value? I've read where some people believe that PSA cards, in general, will hold their value but nowhere did I read that outed cars would..... except for the T206 Wagner which is an anomaly in and of itself.

Agree. I have not seen anyone say the outed cards would retain their same value.


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[swarmee]

Well, I've notified about 30 owners of altered cards from the PSA set registry and only about 5 have responded saying they're going to have them returned. So those people, if they leave the cards in their set, are saying they had no problem paying PSA 8-10 prices for an Altered card.

[Bigdaddy]

Ok, so how does this play out? What happens to the cards that PSA/PWCC buys back? Are they 'destroyed' as the (fake) autographed items were in Operations Bullpen? Given to Little Leaguers for practice? Are they removed from the holders and returned to the hobby as raw? or returned in a new holder with an 'A/A' designation - 'Altered/Authentic'?

If they are removed from the hobby (destroyed), then I assume it will have a significant impact on the supply of high grade examples of many cards. And we know what a reduced supply would do for the value of the remaining cards.

If they are returned in new holder with some type of 'altered' designation, it will have the same effect on the supply of remaining 'good' high grade examples, but bring in a new class of cards that we have little/no experience with as for valuation. Cards that look great on first examination, but upon a closer look, have been altered. And I am 100% positive that if that happens, a non-trivial number of those cards will be freed from their 'tomb' and re-enter the hobby as raw cards. Here we go again.

The only way I see out of this is for the PSA/PWCC to somehow 'mark' the cards themselves as 'altered' so that the designation is permanent. Sort of like when Topps bought up a bunch of older cards and impaled them with a foil logo for redistribution. Hey, they've already been altered once, what is one more alteration?

Or does this whole fiasco sour the registry guys who are the underpinning of the exponential price structure of high grade cards and it ends up flattening that curve?

Lots of questions here still to be answered before we will know how this plays out.

[brob28]

Originally Posted by swarmee

Well, I've notified about 30 owners of altered cards from the PSA set registry and only about 5 have responded saying they're going to have them returned. So those people, if they leave the cards in their set, are saying they had no problem paying PSA 8-10 prices for an Altered card.

Interesting John (crazy to me). The question I'd have is: Are they just sitting by watching this play out, hoping, or thinking it will fade away and value will not suffer or do they simply not feel the need to make a decision immediately? My guess is they would be keeping a sharp eye on how this plays out as they can return the cards at any time (I assume) if they see market values moving in the wrong direction. It would be interesting to see how they feel if this moves forward in a meaningful way (litigation or other issues for PSA and others).

If they truly have zero intention of returning cards, I guess they care about registry rank more than the card? Appearance over substance?

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by brob28

If they truly have zero intention of returning cards, I guess they care about registry rank more than the card? Appearance over substance?

Naturally. Everyone knows chicks dig the set registry leaders.

[drcy]

Originally Posted by brob28

Interesting John (crazy to me). The question I'd have is: Are they just sitting by watching this play out, hoping, or thinking it will fade away and value will not suffer or do they simply not feel the need to make a decision immediately? My guess is they would be keeping a sharp eye on how this plays out as they can return the cards at any time (I assume) if they see market values moving in the wrong direction. It would be interesting to see how they feel if this moves forward in a meaningful way (litigation or other issues for PSA and others).

If they truly have zero intention of returning cards, I guess they care about registry rank more than the card? Appearance over substance?

If PSA deletes the serial number/card from the database, that makes the decision for them.

Plus, there's a question of if these cards should be turned over the FBI, and, if that's the case, why would a sane person choose to withhold it from the FBI and advertise to the world on a webpage that they own it. A question is, if when a card is outed does it then become evidence in this FBI case. In some sense, it's an "illegal good." I don't know how you can just sell the card in the holder, and certainly you can't do it without overtly stating that it is an altered cards related to a current FBI fraud case.

What a selling point: "You may be purchasing what may be evidence in an ongoing FBI case and may already be on their watchlist. Many of the cards have been and will be turned over to or otherwise confiscated by FBI for potential criminal court proceedings and sentencing. Buy this card and you might get a subpoena from the FBI and the serial number removed from the PSA database."

It would seem that a sane person would want to return these cards refund and get them out of one's registry collection asap. And what sane person is going to buy it? For a variety of reasons, including you don't know when PWCC is going to run out of money for refunds. And in addition to the fact that the card, in earlier form one year earlier, sold for 100X less than the asking price and most hobbyists, and PSA's own website guidelines, would say the value has now been degraded from that.

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by swarmee

Well, I've notified about 30 owners of altered cards from the PSA set registry and only about 5 have responded saying they're going to have them returned. So those people, if they leave the cards in their set, are saying they had no problem paying PSA 8-10 prices for an Altered card.

John...

This is very disturbing. Can you please clarify your statement?

Of the 30 Registry people you contacted, did only 5 respond back, period? Or did 5 people respond back that they were returning the altered cards, and 25 responded back that they did not care about the alterations?

There is a big difference. If the other 25 people responded back that they were keeping the cards, that's a big problem for the hobby. Those tainted cards will remain in circulation, and God only knows where they'll end up 20 years from now.

But if it was just silence (or a non-response) from the other 25, perhaps they are still mulling it over and deciding what to do. Some may eventually seek recourse after stewing for a while. Eager to hear what the specific responses were, and what percentage was silent vs. dead set on keeping their altered cards.

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by perezfan

Of the 30 Registry people you contacted, did only 5 respond back, period? Or did 5 people respond back that they were returning the altered cards, and 25 responded back that they did not care about the alterations?

The others were radio silence; some may have passed away or don't have current emails linked to their PSA accounts. But I'm not sure who would respond with "Thanks for your information about altered cards in my sets. I think I'll just let them be."

I am a huge proponent of PSA removing all the known altered cert numbers so people are forced into returning them, but obviously, PSA doesn't think this is in their best interests at this time.

[drcy]

Originally Posted by NYYFan63

Agree. I have not seen anyone say the outed cards would retain their same value.

That was my point. Some collectors have said that many cards in holders are altered in general (many currently unkown) will not change pricing in general, the hobby will be the same and the hobby will just "grow" to accept that many cards are altered and price the same based on labels. However, for each card in a holder that has been shown to altered, all parties involved (including collectors on chatboards) have agreed that the cards are worth less, which goes against the first argument. It strongly suggests that the hobby will not grow to "just accept as if nothing has changed" altered cards in holders.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Assuming it's just total incompetence and not being complicit, how does Reza live with himself at this point? It must take a big dose of cognitive dissonance to get up and go to work.

Nick and I were thinking the exact same thing Peter.....sad isn't it.