Proof that the market value for PSA and 'conserved' cards have dropped

[swarmee]

Well, I've notified about 30 owners of altered cards from the PSA set registry and only about 5 have responded saying they're going to have them returned. So those people, if they leave the cards in their set, are saying they had no problem paying PSA 8-10 prices for an Altered card.

[Bigdaddy]

Ok, so how does this play out? What happens to the cards that PSA/PWCC buys back? Are they 'destroyed' as the (fake) autographed items were in Operations Bullpen? Given to Little Leaguers for practice? Are they removed from the holders and returned to the hobby as raw? or returned in a new holder with an 'A/A' designation - 'Altered/Authentic'?

If they are removed from the hobby (destroyed), then I assume it will have a significant impact on the supply of high grade examples of many cards. And we know what a reduced supply would do for the value of the remaining cards.

If they are returned in new holder with some type of 'altered' designation, it will have the same effect on the supply of remaining 'good' high grade examples, but bring in a new class of cards that we have little/no experience with as for valuation. Cards that look great on first examination, but upon a closer look, have been altered. And I am 100% positive that if that happens, a non-trivial number of those cards will be freed from their 'tomb' and re-enter the hobby as raw cards. Here we go again.

The only way I see out of this is for the PSA/PWCC to somehow 'mark' the cards themselves as 'altered' so that the designation is permanent. Sort of like when Topps bought up a bunch of older cards and impaled them with a foil logo for redistribution. Hey, they've already been altered once, what is one more alteration?

Or does this whole fiasco sour the registry guys who are the underpinning of the exponential price structure of high grade cards and it ends up flattening that curve?

Lots of questions here still to be answered before we will know how this plays out.

[brob28]

Originally Posted by swarmee

Well, I've notified about 30 owners of altered cards from the PSA set registry and only about 5 have responded saying they're going to have them returned. So those people, if they leave the cards in their set, are saying they had no problem paying PSA 8-10 prices for an Altered card.

Interesting John (crazy to me). The question I'd have is: Are they just sitting by watching this play out, hoping, or thinking it will fade away and value will not suffer or do they simply not feel the need to make a decision immediately? My guess is they would be keeping a sharp eye on how this plays out as they can return the cards at any time (I assume) if they see market values moving in the wrong direction. It would be interesting to see how they feel if this moves forward in a meaningful way (litigation or other issues for PSA and others).

If they truly have zero intention of returning cards, I guess they care about registry rank more than the card? Appearance over substance?

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by brob28

If they truly have zero intention of returning cards, I guess they care about registry rank more than the card? Appearance over substance?

Naturally. Everyone knows chicks dig the set registry leaders.

[drcy]

Originally Posted by brob28

Interesting John (crazy to me). The question I'd have is: Are they just sitting by watching this play out, hoping, or thinking it will fade away and value will not suffer or do they simply not feel the need to make a decision immediately? My guess is they would be keeping a sharp eye on how this plays out as they can return the cards at any time (I assume) if they see market values moving in the wrong direction. It would be interesting to see how they feel if this moves forward in a meaningful way (litigation or other issues for PSA and others).

If they truly have zero intention of returning cards, I guess they care about registry rank more than the card? Appearance over substance?

If PSA deletes the serial number/card from the database, that makes the decision for them.

Plus, there's a question of if these cards should be turned over the FBI, and, if that's the case, why would a sane person choose to withhold it from the FBI and advertise to the world on a webpage that they own it. A question is, if when a card is outed does it then become evidence in this FBI case. In some sense, it's an "illegal good." I don't know how you can just sell the card in the holder, and certainly you can't do it without overtly stating that it is an altered cards related to a current FBI fraud case.

What a selling point: "You may be purchasing what may be evidence in an ongoing FBI case and may already be on their watchlist. Many of the cards have been and will be turned over to or otherwise confiscated by FBI for potential criminal court proceedings and sentencing. Buy this card and you might get a subpoena from the FBI and the serial number removed from the PSA database."

It would seem that a sane person would want to return these cards refund and get them out of one's registry collection asap. And what sane person is going to buy it? For a variety of reasons, including you don't know when PWCC is going to run out of money for refunds. And in addition to the fact that the card, in earlier form one year earlier, sold for 100X less than the asking price and most hobbyists, and PSA's own website guidelines, would say the value has now been degraded from that.

[brob28]

Can’t agree with you more David. It would be fascinating to sit in a room with the collectors John mentioned and listen to their logic for not returning these cards.

On second thought probably more frustrating than anything else

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by swarmee

Well, I've notified about 30 owners of altered cards from the PSA set registry and only about 5 have responded saying they're going to have them returned. So those people, if they leave the cards in their set, are saying they had no problem paying PSA 8-10 prices for an Altered card.

John...

This is very disturbing. Can you please clarify your statement?

Of the 30 Registry people you contacted, did only 5 respond back, period? Or did 5 people respond back that they were returning the altered cards, and 25 responded back that they did not care about the alterations?

There is a big difference. If the other 25 people responded back that they were keeping the cards, that's a big problem for the hobby. Those tainted cards will remain in circulation, and God only knows where they'll end up 20 years from now.

But if it was just silence (or a non-response) from the other 25, perhaps they are still mulling it over and deciding what to do. Some may eventually seek recourse after stewing for a while. Eager to hear what the specific responses were, and what percentage was silent vs. dead set on keeping their altered cards.

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by perezfan

Of the 30 Registry people you contacted, did only 5 respond back, period? Or did 5 people respond back that they were returning the altered cards, and 25 responded back that they did not care about the alterations?

The others were radio silence; some may have passed away or don't have current emails linked to their PSA accounts. But I'm not sure who would respond with "Thanks for your information about altered cards in my sets. I think I'll just let them be."

I am a huge proponent of PSA removing all the known altered cert numbers so people are forced into returning them, but obviously, PSA doesn't think this is in their best interests at this time.

[perezfan]

Thanks for clarifying, John...

That's a bit of a relief, I suppose. Cannot imagine that all 25 of those people would actually be content with the situation.

[drcy]

Originally Posted by swarmee

The others were radio silence; some may have passed away or don't have current emails linked to their PSA accounts. But I'm not sure who would respond with "Thanks for your information about altered cards in my sets. I think I'll just let them be."

I am a huge proponent of PSA removing all the known altered cert numbers so people are forced into returning them, but obviously, PSA doesn't think this is in their best interests at this time.

Yes. If PSA removed the serial numbers, that would be an excellent event.

The other big event would be if eBay banned PWCC.

Though it's also an excellent event if Registry people are returning those cards. That's a statement. The Registry is sacred cow of PSAdom.