Black Swamp Find? Tell me more!

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by BobC

Chase,

I hear you. That is a crazy story though. But if two of you have heard of it, I guess I have to believe it as well. So it sounds like it is not widely known if the entire Find has made it to the market yet either. If not, that is just crazy. It has been over a decade now since the BSF occurred, and one would normally expect that all the cards would have made it to the market long before now.

So how many cards were there in this Find? You've talked about someone buying the back half, and if Heritage got the 750 or so up front to sell, does that mean the 1,400-1,500 number mentioned by some others is somewhat accurate then? Or is that "back half" comment just a phrase someone threw out, and not really indicative that the 750 or so E98 cards that Heritage got to sell up front was about half the Find after all? Because if the Find really did amount to about 1,400-1,500 E98 cards, the combined PSA, SGC, and CSG population reports currently show a total of 4,106 E98 cards have been graded to date. In that case, the Black Swamp Find cards don't even make up half of the graded E98s out there. So using rounded numbers, if before the BSF there were about 750 graded E98s out there, then the 750 Heritage got graded took that number to about 1,500. And since there are around 4,100 graded E98s out there today, that means an additional 2,600 or so (4,100 - 1,500) have been graded since the BSF hit the news. And if about 750 of those represent the 'back half" of the total BSF, that means around 1,850 E98 cards (2,600 - 750) had nothing to do with the BSF at all. That is about 2-1/2 times the number of cards in the supposed "back half" of the Find. So at least it seems I may have been right about there being a lot of non-BSF E98's that were out there that came in to be graded. And I'm going to guess there may be a lot more ungraded E98 cards out there yet.

Never heard about this "back half" of the BSF before, just what the mainstream articles, stories, and the Strange Inheritance TV show all kept saying. Learned something new then. Would still like to hear all the real details at some point though, but it doesn't sound like we will.

The dealer that spoke to me of the back half of the find indicated there were more cards held back by the family that opted to keep them than were graded originally by Heritage. If Heritage graded 750 of them then there were more than 1,500 in all found in the home.

I am confident that cards were submitted more than once, especially the Hall of Famers. I am also certain that cards were graded by PSA and then broken out and sent to SGC when they were not happy with the grades. The more than 4,000 cards graded between both pop reports includes many BSF cards that were seen more than once. Someone posted that prior to the BSF being submitted there were roughly 627 cards in PSA's pop report. I would guess there were at least that many, if not more, in SGC's. Let's assume pre BSF there had been 1,500 cards in the combined pop reports. Another 1,500 from the find which leaves roughly 1,000 other submissions of E98s most of which I would argue are cards being resubmitted or broken out and sent to the other grading company.

Again, no idea why the choice was made to not state upfront that more than 1500 cards were found but only 750 would be coming to auction other than the family having kept that a secret from Heritage or that there was a concern it might have a negative impact on the 750 that were going to auction.

[Yoda]

Just curious, but I hold a BSF M. Brown PSA7 with an orange background and am wondering if this color makes it more valuable than, say, the more common red.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Just curious, but I hold a BSF M. Brown PSA7 with an orange background and am wondering if this color makes it more valuable than, say, the more common red.

i'd say so

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Just curious, but I hold a BSF M. Brown PSA7 with an orange background and am wondering if this color makes it more valuable than, say, the more common red.

Yes.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

The dealer that spoke to me of the back half of the find indicated there were more cards held back by the family that opted to keep them than were graded originally by Heritage. If Heritage graded 750 of them then there were more than 1,500 in all found in the home.

I am confident that cards were submitted more than once, especially the Hall of Famers. I am also certain that cards were graded by PSA and then broken out and sent to SGC when they were not happy with the grades. The more than 4,000 cards graded between both pop reports includes many BSF cards that were seen more than once. Someone posted that prior to the BSF being submitted there were roughly 627 cards in PSA's pop report. I would guess there were at least that many, if not more, in SGC's. Let's assume pre BSF there had been 1,500 cards in the combined pop reports. Another 1,500 from the find which leaves roughly 1,000 other submissions of E98s most of which I would argue are cards being resubmitted or broken out and sent to the other grading company.

Again, no idea why the choice was made to not state upfront that more than 1500 cards were found but only 750 would be coming to auction other than the family having kept that a secret from Heritage or that there was a concern it might have a negative impact on the 750 that were going to auction.

That is crazy Chase. I know we're only guessing on the number of different E98 then that really have been graded, and the reason(s) why the family kept the total number of cards in the Find a secret. Deep down I would think that at some point money had something to do with it, especially since it seems like in the end, money has something to do with pretty much just about everything. LOL

Just goes to show how you can still learn something new almost every day. So, of the 4,200 or so that are included on TPG pop reports (forget Beckett also shows 102 total graded E98s, and who knows how many may still be sitting in a GAI holder), I would hazard a guess that the actual number of different E98s that have been graded is somewhere between 3,000 to 4,000, after backing off the crossovers, re-grades, and so on, and maybe closer to the 3,000 figure at the end of the day. Sound about right to you?

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by BobC

That is crazy Chase. I know we're only guessing on the number of different E98 then that really have been graded, and the reason(s) why the family kept the total number of cards in the Find a secret. Deep down I would think that at some point money had something to do with it, especially since it seems like in the end, money has something to do with pretty much just about everything. LOL

Just goes to show how you can still learn something new almost every day. So, of the 4,200 or so that are included on TPG pop reports (forget Beckett also shows 102 total graded E98s, and who knows how many may still be sitting in a GAI holder), I would hazard a guess that the actual number of different E98s that have been graded is somewhere between 3,000 to 4,000, after backing off the crossovers, re-grades, and so on, and maybe closer to the 3,000 figure at the end of the day. Sound about right to you?

Hi Bob,

Yes you are right...it always comes down to money. Maybe the family who was holding out really had no interest in selling and thought the estimates the auction house gave were outlandish? The members of the family I saw interviewed seem like good people. Once the sales concluded they might have changed their mind and looked for a buyer. Interesting that they did not offer them to Heritage since they did so well with them.

I think the actual number of unique E98s having been graded would be much closer to 3,000 than 4,000, if I had to take a wild guess. You can see some high grade E98s listed on eBay right now that are not deemed BSF on the label but when you read the description the seller states the card came from a second offering from members of the family.

The find, to me, is still one of the great ones in my time in the hobby. I still have not added a single one to my collection but before I am done I will add several. My preference would be to get ones from those Heritage graded. After reading up about Mathis I would never buy one that went through his hands. Ironic that a virgin find like that ended up with him. Something just so wrong about that. Again...all about the money.

Chase

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Hi Bob,

Yes you are right...it always comes down to money. Maybe the family who was holding out really had no interest in selling and thought the estimates the auction house gave were outlandish? The members of the family I saw interviewed seem like good people. Once the sales concluded they might have changed their mind and looked for a buyer. Interesting that they did not offer them to Heritage since they did so well with them.

I think the actual number of unique E98s having been graded would be much closer to 3,000 than 4,000, if I had to take a wild guess. You can see some high grade E98s listed on eBay right now that are not deemed BSF on the label but when you read the description the seller states the card came from a second offering from members of the family.

The find, to me, is still one of the great ones in my time in the hobby. I still have not added a single one to my collection but before I am done I will add several. My preference would be to get ones from those Heritage graded. After reading up about Mathis I would never buy one that went through his hands. Ironic that a virgin find like that ended up with him. Something just so wrong about that. Again...all about the money.

Chase

Exactly what I was thinking as well, probably closer to 3,000. One thing seems certain though, since prior to the BSF there were no graded E98s higher than a NM 7, I think it can be pretty much agreed upon that any E98s now graded that are higher than that must have come from the BSF after all.

I totally agree with you also that this whole back-end sale with Mathis just makes little sense, and still seems sketchy to me on some level, I just don't know what it is. And your observation/question about why after seeing how well Heritage did with the initial batch of BSF cards, why didn't the rest of the family trust Heritage with the rest of the cards from the Find then? That is a great question, and based on what I've been hearing, the fact that the family didn't go that route makes no sense at all. I know that family politics, especially when you're talking about inheritances and money, can be unbelievably complex and insane. We'll probably never learn all the facts and details behind this family and how they ultimately divvied up and cashed in on their inheritance. What I would love to know though is if any of the cousins that decided to keep their share of the E98 cards may still have those cards in their possession. Would be interesting to talk with that person(s) as to the reasons and thinking behind what they did then, and maybe what they are still thinking of doing with those cards. LOL

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by BobC

Exactly what I was thinking as well, probably closer to 3,000. One thing seems certain though, since prior to the BSF there were no graded E98s higher than a NM 7, I think it can be pretty much agreed upon that any E98s now graded that are higher than that must have come from the BSF after all.

I totally agree with you also that this whole back-end sale with Mathis just makes little sense, and still seems sketchy to me on some level, I just don't know what it is. And your observation/question about why after seeing how well Heritage did with the initial batch of BSF cards, why didn't the rest of the family trust Heritage with the rest of the cards from the Find then? That is a great question, and based on what I've been hearing, the fact that the family didn't go that route makes no sense at all. I know that family politics, especially when you're talking about inheritances and money, can be unbelievably complex and insane. We'll probably never learn all the facts and details behind this family and how they ultimately divvied up and cashed in on their inheritance. What I would love to know though is if any of the cousins that decided to keep their share of the E98 cards may still have those cards in their possession. Would be interesting to talk with that person(s) as to the reasons and thinking behind what they did then, and maybe what they are still thinking of doing with those cards. LOL

Lots of questions and there are answers but I doubt we will ever get them. Just a guess but if HA took the position that lead us all to believe that what they graded was the entire find, I could see how it might not be a great move to then accept the other half of the deal 7 years later. Or that they did not know there was another half and turned down the consignment but then why not go to another house.

Does anyone know what the 750 cards grossed out of Heritage over the years? I know that there were dozens of Cobbs and Wagners from the back half and if I am not mistaken Mathis got a PSA 10 on each with plenty of 9s and 8s.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Lots of questions and there are answers but I doubt we will ever get them. Just a guess but if HA took the position that lead us all to believe that what they graded was the entire find, I could see how it might not be a great move to then accept the other half of the deal 7 years later. Or that they did not know there was another half and turned down the consignment but then why not go to another house.

Does anyone know what the 750 cards grossed out of Heritage over the years? I know that there were dozens of Cobbs and Wagners from the back half and if I am not mistaken Mathis got a PSA 10 on each with plenty of 9s and 8s.

Did you watch that Strange Inheritance episode about the find that someone linked to earlier in the thread? Don't know exactly how many cards it shows as being sold through Heritage, but they talked about an original estimated value of $3M I believe for the cards in the Find, and at one point the show mentioned the family having gotten about $1.8M or so, so far, from what was being sold through Heritage. What I don't know now was how many of the original 750 or so cards were sold to get to that sales amount, or if the $3M estimate was what Heritage was telling the family was for the 750 or so original cards they consigned to them, or if that included the cards on the back-half of the Find as well. Again, some answers, but still a lot of unanswered questions remain.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by BobC

Did you watch that Strange Inheritance episode about the find that someone linked to earlier in the thread? Don't know exactly how many cards it shows as being sold through Heritage, but they talked about an original estimated value of $3M I believe for the cards in the Find, and at one point the show mentioned the family having gotten about $1.8M or so, so far, from what was being sold through Heritage. What I don't know now was how many of the original 750 or so cards were sold to get to that sales amount, or if the $3M estimate was what Heritage was telling the family was for the 750 or so original cards they consigned to them, or if that included the cards on the back-half of the Find as well. Again, some answers, but still a lot of unanswered questions remain.

Yeah I did watch it when it was on TV, actually. When I go to Heritage's site there are cards in PSA and SGC holders (new labels and old labels) with the BSF provenance so I am not sure how to get a tally or if one can even be gotten.

Also does not appear they have sold 750 of them even to this day. There are 3 or n a current auction ending tomorrow, in fact, and not sure if these were previously sold and consigned a second time or if they are being offered for the first time.