Omnious sign in market?

[Snapolit1]

Watching a few auctions close this week, I've seen an odd pattern where there is all of a sudden seemingly a wide disparity in where the same item is selling for in different places relatively close in time.

A ticket stub sold for 12K, then two months later sold for 10k, and now just sold for $4

Or a card that recently sold in a SGG 60 for over 20K sold for 12 in a PSA 6.

Or a photo sells for 6K that I was sure was going close to 20K.

Obviously there can be variations in eye appeal, but it seems like maybe the pool of motivated buyers from some nice new toys is perhaps drying up a bit.

Anyone else see anything like this in what they are following? Just wider fluctuations in price than what I've been accustomed to see.

Not sky is falling . . . .

[pawpawdiv9]

Its football season, give it a few months- like during the holidays when people have more free time to shop.
Could be just a system overload with so many auctions at one time.

[raulus]

I think we would all welcome a bit of a return to sanity in the market, no matter how small it might seem.

[Fballguy]

Check your 401K.

[mrreality68]

You could be right Steve.

But I do not think it will be. Potentially a lull do the overload of auctions and the National Show.

But items I bid on and track seem to still be going really strong and the prices fluctuate but not drastically and it seems to seem to be more up than down.

Pictures I am no expert and I cannot explain why 1 type 1 from the same year and basic subject matter goes for such dramatic prices

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Or a card that recently sold in a SGG 60 for over 20K sold for 12 in a PSA 6.

Wow that's a big drop. Which card was it?

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Wow that's a big drop. Which card was it?

This one caught my eye. Others too.

[Johnny630]

I’m a Buyer of the S&P 500 and the Q’s doubling down in the middle of October. Then Up Up and Away. The vintage card market is a little too high for me. I view it as if you either have it or you don’t. I’m fine and love what I have, I’m good with never buying another card.

Last month a SGC 5 Mantle Sells for $306,000 in REA

Goldin Has a 5 Right Now it’s not as nice as REA’s ending tonight and it’s only at $122k plus the juice. Of course, we will hear $100,000 plus more is reasonable for eye appeal it's gonna get up graded/bumped yada yada yada but when is enough? People have a ton of money so I will contine to be wrong with cards, they're gonna only be going higher in auctions lol.

[Snapolit1]

My financial guy says at least 6-9 months more of volatility and some more pain but clouds clear next summer sometime.

I've long subscribed to the wall street adage "no one knows 'nuthin. And if they do they're not talking.





QUOTE=Johnny630;2262249]I’m a Buyer of the S&P 500 and the Q’s doubling down in the middle of October. Then Up Up and Away. The vintage card market is a little too high for me. I view it as if you either have it or you don’t. I’m fine and love what I have, I’m good with never buying another card.

Last month a SGC 5 Mantle Sells for $306,000 in REA

Goldin Has a 5 Right Now it’s not as nice as REA’s ending tonight and it’s only at $122k plus the juice. Of course, we will hear $100,000 plus more is reasonable for eye appeal it's gonna get up graduate yada yada yada but when is enough? People gave a ton of money so ill on continuing to be wrong with cards only going higher in auctions lol.[/QUOTE]

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

My financial guy says at least 6-9 months more of volatility and some more pain but clouds clear next summer sometime.

I've long subscribed to the wall street adage "no one knows 'nuthin. And if they do they're not talking.





QUOTE=Johnny630;2262249]I’m a Buyer of the S&P 500 and the Q’s doubling down in the middle of October. Then Up Up and Away. The vintage card market is a little too high for me. I view it as if you either have it or you don’t. I’m fine and love what I have, I’m good with never buying another card.

Last month a SGC 5 Mantle Sells for $306,000 in REA

Goldin Has a 5 Right Now it’s not as nice as REA’s ending tonight and it’s only at $122k plus the juice. Of course, we will hear $100,000 plus more is reasonable for eye appeal it's gonna get up graduate yada yada yada but when is enough? People gave a ton of money so ill on continuing to be wrong with cards only going higher in auctions lol.

[/QUOTE]

Agreed. Most pundits are like broken clocks, inevitably they will be right once in a while, but mostly not.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

My financial guy says at least 6-9 months more of volatility and some more pain but clouds clear next summer sometime.

I've long subscribed to the wall street adage "no one knows 'nuthin. And if they do they're not talking.

Definitely agree with the latter, as for the former I have serious reservations and think the November election can and will heavily sway the market. Waiting nervously to see if 6-9 is the upswing or the start of much worse.

[robertsmithnocure]

Out of curiosity, what was the ticket and photo that you are referring to?

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by robertsmithnocure

Out of curiosity, what was the ticket and photo that you are referring to?

Ticket below.

The photo was the Ruth Gehrig barnstorming photo in SCP last night.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

This one caught my eye. Others too.

Wow, that's pretty crazy. Not a great endorsement for SCP.

I saw that over a dozen of their items (including some of their bigger items like some of the Bill Russell rings) didn't appear to make the reserve and were therefore not sold.

Of course the one item I really wanted--a picture of Clemente after he hit the game winning home run in Game 7 of the '71 World Series tripled in price in overtime, and I lost it.

[Lorewalker]

Not sure when the economy gets healthy again but I do know that it will and at some point thereafter it will get weak again because that is what happens. I guess I do not worry or focus on the ups and down. Way out of my control.

The results posted, while a small sample, are consistent with what has been seen in the overall market since April/May. Maybe now it is impacting prices more broadly.

SCP's auction last night looked pretty solid on the dozen or so card offerings I just checked. The fact is that there is a better chance now of something going light than there was 6 months ago. Fewer buyers willing to pay top dollar even for great items will have that impact.

[Exhibitman]

I'm not sure you can make generalizations based on specific results, especially for items like tickets or photos, where the market is thinner. One guy who decides he's out and you can see a 50% drop in prices from auction to auction. As an ephemera collector and boxing type card collector, that is a consistent thing over the years: one or two people drop out and the market falls back significantly.

I've stopped thinking short term, except opportunistically. After nearly 50 years of buying and selling cards my focus is more on either whether I want to have something until I really liquidate, or on where I think the item is likely to be when I liquidate.

[boneheadandrube]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

This one caught my eye. Others too.

Centering!

[Jetsfan]

I see that the SGC 3.5 52T Mantle didn’t sell in SCP last night. Anyone know what the final bid was?

[jsfriedm]

Originally Posted by Jetsfan

I see that the SGC 3.5 52T Mantle didn’t sell in SCP last night. Anyone know what the final bid was?

51 Bowman Mantle PSA 7 didn't sell either. A lot of the top lots didn't sell. That would seem to be strongest indicator of all.

[Rad_Hazard]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

This one caught my eye. Others too.

I can't speak to some of the other oddities, but on first glance, the SGC Gehrig has MUCH better centering and that affects value more than one would think it would. It also looks brighter, but that could just be the scan or photo doctoring. Centering plays such a huge role, and I am 100% guilty of paying large premiums for centered cards regardless of the grade.

[LOUCARDFAN]

I was pretty happy picking up the the only known example of this 1958 Hillerich & Bradsby advertisement. This originally sold in 2016 by REA for $3,900 and I was able to pick it up for less than a third of that price.




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[todeen]

Originally Posted by LOUCARDFAN

I was pretty happy picking up the the only known example of this 1958 Hillerich & Bradsby advertisement. This originally sold in 2016 by REA for $3,900 and I was able to pick it up for less than a third of that price.




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I love some of these older advertisements. Here's one I picked up off ebay 5+ years ago. I wish it was in color!

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[LOUCARDFAN]

Originally Posted by todeen

I love some of these older advertisements. Here's one I picked up off ebay 5+ years ago. I wish it was in color!

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Wow, that’s awesome, I have never seen that one.


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[todeen]

Originally Posted by LOUCARDFAN

Wow, that’s awesome, I have never seen that one.


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I bought it cuz I collect Ernie Lombardi. I already had the LS Famous Sluggers yearbook and this went with it.

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