Omnious sign in market?

[Snapolit1]

My financial guy says at least 6-9 months more of volatility and some more pain but clouds clear next summer sometime.

I've long subscribed to the wall street adage "no one knows 'nuthin. And if they do they're not talking.





QUOTE=Johnny630;2262249]I’m a Buyer of the S&P 500 and the Q’s doubling down in the middle of October. Then Up Up and Away. The vintage card market is a little too high for me. I view it as if you either have it or you don’t. I’m fine and love what I have, I’m good with never buying another card.

Last month a SGC 5 Mantle Sells for $306,000 in REA

Goldin Has a 5 Right Now it’s not as nice as REA’s ending tonight and it’s only at $122k plus the juice. Of course, we will hear $100,000 plus more is reasonable for eye appeal it's gonna get up graduate yada yada yada but when is enough? People gave a ton of money so ill on continuing to be wrong with cards only going higher in auctions lol.[/QUOTE]

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

My financial guy says at least 6-9 months more of volatility and some more pain but clouds clear next summer sometime.

I've long subscribed to the wall street adage "no one knows 'nuthin. And if they do they're not talking.





QUOTE=Johnny630;2262249]I’m a Buyer of the S&P 500 and the Q’s doubling down in the middle of October. Then Up Up and Away. The vintage card market is a little too high for me. I view it as if you either have it or you don’t. I’m fine and love what I have, I’m good with never buying another card.

Last month a SGC 5 Mantle Sells for $306,000 in REA

Goldin Has a 5 Right Now it’s not as nice as REA’s ending tonight and it’s only at $122k plus the juice. Of course, we will hear $100,000 plus more is reasonable for eye appeal it's gonna get up graduate yada yada yada but when is enough? People gave a ton of money so ill on continuing to be wrong with cards only going higher in auctions lol.

[/QUOTE]

Agreed. Most pundits are like broken clocks, inevitably they will be right once in a while, but mostly not.

[Snapolit1]

Just wondering if for your run of the mill nice $15,000 card, whether maybe there are 8 people really actively looking for one as opposed to 18 or 28 a year ago. Not that no one is ponying up, but maybe the number of people in the pool has dropped a good bit. Would make sense to me in light of everything else going on in the economy.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Just wondering if for your run of the mill nice $15,000 card, whether maybe there are 8 people really actively looking for one as opposed to 18 or 28 a year ago. Not that no one is ponying up, but maybe the number of people in the pool has dropped a good bit. Would make sense to me in light of everything else going on in the economy.

I get this feeling too. FOMO is gone, quick flip is gone, cheap money is gone. I also think the collectibles market is a 6-9 month trailing indicator. You also have these investment groups/consortiums that have pooled money to "invest" in cards, they'll start losing money after the promised returns don't materialize and they'll move on to the next shiny object.

A good real estate analogy would be that the all cash offers 150K above list are no longer happening.

And it can't happen fast enough in my opinion. As a collector I would much rather pay 5k for a card I want instead of 8k. Your Gehrig is a perfect example, I would guess the 1st buyer was an investor and the second a collector. Beautiful card and worth what the 2nd guy got it for, not what the 1st guy got it for.

In the restaurant business we have an old saying, it's always the second guy who makes money after the first guy goes broke spending all the money building it out and the second guy buys the assets for pennies on the dollar.

[raulus]

I do think that outliers can be a factor, particularly on the high side.

You get a couple of guys bidding against each other. They both get emotionally invested. They both start clearing a spot on their wall to display it. They both start thinking, “Who does this other guy think he is? I crap bigger than him! I make $X million every year!!! I’m not going to let this blackguard win!!!” Next thing you know, it’s been bid up by 4x the real price.

But maybe I’m just projecting…

[irv]

I mainly follow 52 Topps cards, and not near as much as I use to, but I am not seeing a drop off.
If anything, I am seeing the opposite, at least lately.
Could have something to do with the 9.5 Mantle, but that is just a guess.
https://www.psacard.com/priceguide/b...952-topps/1129

[Schlesinj]

I jumped in late to the SCP auction and noticed the photos seemed lower in price. I liked that Barnstorming photo as well but I was too late to notice it. I was not planning buying, but i grabbed two items.

I won a lot which included 27 snap shots from Aaron’s 715th, 3 of which slabbed of the swing (it did not have a bid and I bid with 1 second to go). Also grabbed a photo from Home Run Derby TV show of Mantle. That exact photo sold on RMY earlier this year for $2,200, which I lost then. I won it for just under 1k after BP.

I will admit both kind of a weird niche vs cards that are easier to track consistent prices.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

My financial guy says at least 6-9 months more of volatility and some more pain but clouds clear next summer sometime.

I've long subscribed to the wall street adage "no one knows 'nuthin. And if they do they're not talking.

Definitely agree with the latter, as for the former I have serious reservations and think the November election can and will heavily sway the market. Waiting nervously to see if 6-9 is the upswing or the start of much worse.