Omnious sign in market?

[Rhotchkiss]

I didn’t even know SCP had an auction ending last night.

Looking now at some of the results, the following cards that I would have tracked did very well:

T206 Cobb bat off psa 6 ($37k- record)
1914 CJ Cobb psa 3 ($50k - record)
E92 Dockman Wagner throwing PSA 4 ($9k - record)

So it appears that some cards did great, some flopped, and surely some did as expected. I don’t think any broad conclusions can be drawn

[sreader3]

A major asset bubble is bursting. We saw this in 2007-10.

Good news: If you bought two years or more ago you will be fine.

[Johnny630]

Vintage Centered non-oddball Cobb, Ruth, Jackie, Mantle, and May's higher grades are in no way shape, or form in a bubble. Going Up.

Lower grade and oddballs yup they could be in a bubble.

I’m sorry but I’ll say it again ⬆️

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Vintage Centered non-oddball Cobb, Ruth, Jackie, Mantle, and May's higher grades are in no way shape, or form in a bubble. Going Up.

Lower grade and oddballs yup they could be in a bubble.

If the 53T Mays PSA 8 closing tonight with Memory Lane is representative, then it’s definitely way up. Even if it closed at the current price, it would be nearly 7x higher than the last sale price (admittedly pre-pandemic).

And it could still go a lot higher, particularly because Memory Lane leaves their auctions open practically all night.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by raulus

If the 53T Mays PSA 8 closing tonight with Memory Lane is representative, then it’s definitely way up. Even if it closed at the current price, it would be nearly 7x higher than the last sale price (admittedly pre-pandemic).

And it could still go a lot higher, particularly because Memory Lane leaves their auctions open practically all night.

Never have bid with them but been told by many that their auctions usually go until 9AM the next day. Seems fishy since there are some incredible offerings auction after auction in other venues and those never have gone past 1 or 2AM.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Never have bid with them but been told by many that their auctions usually go until 9AM the next day. Seems fishy since there are some incredible offerings auction after auction in other venues and those never have gone past 1 or 2AM.

I guess time zones could impact your results here, but my recollection from past auctions is that they often stay open until 6am or 7am eastern.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by raulus

I guess time zones could impact your results here, but my recollection from past auctions is that they often stay open until 6am or 7am eastern.

Really pretty absurd. I don’t know about any of you, but there is exactly a 0% chance I will increase my bid when I am asleep.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by raulus

I guess time zones could impact your results here, but my recollection from past auctions is that they often stay open until 6am or 7am eastern.

Time zone issue or not, no other house has active bidders keeping the auction open from 10PM EST to 7AM the following day, auction after auction. Most end by 3AM EST which by most hobbyists' standards is absurd enough.

[sreader3]

In the 2000s prices for generic T206 PSA 6 commons rose steadily from $100 to $200. Then prices went crazy around 2006 and doubled to $400 by late 2007. Pop goes the bubble. Prices sank back to about $200 by 2009. But they never went back to $100.

I expect something similar to happen this time, except due to inflation the floor is probably $300.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by sreader3

In the 2000s prices for generic T206 PSA 6 commons rose steadily from $100 to $200. Then prices went crazy around 2006 and doubled to $400 by late 2007. Pop goes the bubble. Prices sank back to about $200 by 2009. But they never went back to $100.

I expect something similar to happen this time, except due to inflation the floor is probably $250-300.

I think all of us still in the acquisition phase would be ticked pink if prices settled back down to about 25-50% higher than pre-pandemic.

[sreader3]

Originally Posted by raulus

I think all of us still in the acquisition phase would be ticked pink if prices settled back down to about 25-50% higher than pre-pandemic.

If that’s your expectation then I think you may be tickled pink.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

...it appears that some cards did great, some flopped, and surely some did as expected. I don’t think any broad conclusions can be drawn

Spot on!