Omnious sign in market?

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Never have bid with them but been told by many that their auctions usually go until 9AM the next day. Seems fishy since there are some incredible offerings auction after auction in other venues and those never have gone past 1 or 2AM.

I guess time zones could impact your results here, but my recollection from past auctions is that they often stay open until 6am or 7am eastern.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by raulus

I guess time zones could impact your results here, but my recollection from past auctions is that they often stay open until 6am or 7am eastern.

Really pretty absurd. I don’t know about any of you, but there is exactly a 0% chance I will increase my bid when I am asleep.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Really pretty absurd. I don’t know about any of you, but there is exactly a 0% chance I will increase my bid when I am asleep.

I take it they don't close lot-by-lot. So, two bidders battling over one random item keeps every lot open, yes?

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by Eric72

I take it they don't close lot-by-lot. So, two bidders battling over one random item keeps every lot open, yes?

That’s my understanding.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

That’s my understanding.

I guess that helps the AH, financially speaking. However, I wonder how many bidders they lose because not everyone wants to spend countless hours in extended bidding.

Staying up late is one thing. Waking up the following day to find the auction still going is sheer absurdity.

[Shoeless Moe]

I look at it like this:

EVERYTHING went up during the pandemic.

Now pandemic is basically over, "many"(but not all) things are coming back down.

So 100% went up.

Now maybe 80% coming back down, but not all the way down.

I've yet to see anything come back down to pre-pandemic pricing. Things shot so high up plenty of room to fell back some, but not falling all the way down, but significant drops from those big highs at the height of the madness.

So again:
About 80% coming down.
20% still getting strong record prices.

My 2 cents.....which was 6 cents 6-9 months ago.

[Republicaninmass]

Signed cards...never been stronger. See memory lane

[sreader3]

Just to clarify I don’t expect to see pre-pandemic prices again but would not be surprised to see a modest retrenchment from recent highs. I can speak only to T206 where prices appear to have plateaued recently as month over month real estate and stock prices have declined.

[Fred]

At some point in time it just happens...


bubble pop.jpg

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by raulus

I guess time zones could impact your results here, but my recollection from past auctions is that they often stay open until 6am or 7am eastern.

Time zone issue or not, no other house has active bidders keeping the auction open from 10PM EST to 7AM the following day, auction after auction. Most end by 3AM EST which by most hobbyists' standards is absurd enough.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Time zone issue or not, no other house has active bidders keeping the auction open from 10PM EST to 7AM the following day, auction after auction. Most end by 3AM EST which by most hobbyists' standards is absurd enough.

Seems like most AHs have moved to item by item closing to avoid that nonsense altogether.

[Johnny630]

What Happened to $306,000 last month in REA on an SGC 5 Now a 5 Sells for $146,000 Tonight? Was the other card in REA with 150,000 plus more cause had a little nicer corners and centering maybe but to me, it’s a bridge too far. I think last month was an outlier. There is still hope for us mere mortals who do not own a 311 52 Mickey.

[ullmandds]

I see an e126 ruth in mem lane in psa 4 almost 80K...some cards are rocketing to the moon...still.

[puckpaul]

Just eyeballing those two gehrigs, the SGC one looks way nicer to me. SGC has gotten way tougher on grading, so not sure those two cards are the best comp.

[hcv123]

Originally Posted by puckpaul

Just eyeballing those two gehrigs, the SGC one looks way nicer to me. SHC has gotten way tougher on grading, so not sure those two cards are the beat comp.

I think there are a number of factors at work:

1) Regarding the Gehrigs - The SGC 6 is a considerably nicer "eye appeal" card - not even close to the PSA 6(imho)! More of the discerning collectors/buyers in the marketplace are starting to pay attention to the cards in the holders beyond the numbers on the holders and are willing to pay premiums sometimes large ones for clearly nicer cards. This makes a LOT of sense to me as on the best day of the week ALL grading companies are at least inconsistent.

2) burnout - I think many people have just hit sensory overload, between shows and auctions. I do this full time and there just aren't enough hours in a day to track it all! I suspect for most this is a hobby to which considerably less time is devoted - choices need to be made.

3) Auctions are not always the best indicator - auction houses like to tell consignors that an auction is going to get the best price for their items - suggesting that "all" potential buyers will see and have an opportunity to bid on their items - in most cases I strongly disagree (For certain marquee items - think SGC 9.5 52 Mantle - I do think a high profile auction with lots of publicity around a lot IS the best place to sell). For reasons above and others that have been mentioned in this thread - there is no "perfect" venue to sell every item - not every buyer looking for a particular item is looking at every auction! Stuff falls through the cracks.

4) Ticket stubs and photo differences - This ties into #2 and #3 above - I think the collector base for these types of items is, so far, considerably smaller than for "mainstream" cards. A better chance that if some of those collectors aren't looking - there is the opportunity for greater price discrepancies.

5) Ultimately it boils down to 2 overarching concepts - 1) Simple supply and demand economics - When demand outpaces supply it drives prices up, when supply outpaces demand it drives prices down. I have said it on a number of other threads - I see the high end biggest name players cards in continuously short supply relative to demand continuing to set records (I also think they are just getting warmed up). I see a little bit of a decline in the lower grade/higher supply cards due to slight softness in demand (arguably influenced by some of the larger economic impacts mentioned above). This will be the area I think has the greatest possibility of a bit further softness. I think it is a mistake to think of the "market" as a whole. I think it needs to be looked at in segments. 2) Arbitrage & inconsistency - the markets are inefficient - sometimes grossly so - there is no single place where all willing buyers can meet all willing sellers (despite what auction companies will tell you). Grading companies as much as they try to "objectify" the grading process will ALWAYS be inefficient - unlike buying a share of stock where 1 (common share) is literally "the exact same" as another. No 2 cards are exactly the same and 3rd party grader opinion notwithstanding - beauty is in the eye of the be - holder (pun intended).

[Snowman]

I've never even heard of SCP Auctions until I read this thread. So there's that.

[oldjudge]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

I see an e126 ruth in mem lane in psa 4 almost 80K...some cards are rocketing to the moon...still.

Yah, one with paper loss on the front

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Yah, one with paper loss on the front

I didn't even notice that...it looked overgraded by todays standards regardless. makes me even happier to have this at 1/15th the price!

[MVSNYC]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

What Happened to $306,000 last month in REA on an SGC 5 Now a 5 Sells for $146,000 Tonight? Was the other card in REA with 150,000 plus more cause had a little nicer corners and centering maybe but to me, it’s a bridge too far. I think last month was an outlier. There is still hope for us mere mortals who do not own a 311 52 Mickey.

This difference is very curious to me. Quite glaring. A very similar card, for half the price, just 6 weeks later.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

This difference is very curious to me. Quite glaring. A very similar card, for half the price, just 6 weeks later.

Assuming the winner of the REA example was bidding against actual bidders who wanted to win the card, I suppose it is entirely possible that nobody but 2 bidders were going for it once it got to 150ish?

I have not looked closely at images of the two cards so simply going off of what has been suggested here--that the cards were pretty close in condition. If they are similar examples then I would not feel great as the buyer of the REA example.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

This difference is very curious to me. Quite glaring. A very similar card, for half the price, just 6 weeks later.

+1. I told a friend this exact same thing today. Outlier sales happen. I just wish it would be on my consignments (not specific to any AH)....
.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

This difference is very curious to me. Quite glaring. A very similar card, for half the price, just 6 weeks later.

I suspect a couple of collectors with cash to burn decided that this was their turn to get one. So they went nuts until one of them finally decided to throw in the towel. Naturally, if the underbidder ended up getting this next one, then it worked out well for him in the end.

[MVSNYC]

Just as we start to question the market...these two cards remind us just how crazy things still are...

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by raulus

Seems like most AHs have moved to item by item closing to avoid that nonsense altogether.

Yeah it just makes so much more sense for everyone, imo. Not to derail the thread topic but the only thing more controversial than choice of auction ending is a discussion on what is a rookie card and anything political.