Omnious sign in market?

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Wow that's a big drop. Which card was it?

This one caught my eye. Others too.

[Johnny630]

I’m a Buyer of the S&P 500 and the Q’s doubling down in the middle of October. Then Up Up and Away. The vintage card market is a little too high for me. I view it as if you either have it or you don’t. I’m fine and love what I have, I’m good with never buying another card.

Last month a SGC 5 Mantle Sells for $306,000 in REA

Goldin Has a 5 Right Now it’s not as nice as REA’s ending tonight and it’s only at $122k plus the juice. Of course, we will hear $100,000 plus more is reasonable for eye appeal it's gonna get up graded/bumped yada yada yada but when is enough? People have a ton of money so I will contine to be wrong with cards, they're gonna only be going higher in auctions lol.

[Snapolit1]

My financial guy says at least 6-9 months more of volatility and some more pain but clouds clear next summer sometime.

I've long subscribed to the wall street adage "no one knows 'nuthin. And if they do they're not talking.





QUOTE=Johnny630;2262249]I’m a Buyer of the S&P 500 and the Q’s doubling down in the middle of October. Then Up Up and Away. The vintage card market is a little too high for me. I view it as if you either have it or you don’t. I’m fine and love what I have, I’m good with never buying another card.

Last month a SGC 5 Mantle Sells for $306,000 in REA

Goldin Has a 5 Right Now it’s not as nice as REA’s ending tonight and it’s only at $122k plus the juice. Of course, we will hear $100,000 plus more is reasonable for eye appeal it's gonna get up graduate yada yada yada but when is enough? People gave a ton of money so ill on continuing to be wrong with cards only going higher in auctions lol.[/QUOTE]

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

My financial guy says at least 6-9 months more of volatility and some more pain but clouds clear next summer sometime.

I've long subscribed to the wall street adage "no one knows 'nuthin. And if they do they're not talking.





QUOTE=Johnny630;2262249]I’m a Buyer of the S&P 500 and the Q’s doubling down in the middle of October. Then Up Up and Away. The vintage card market is a little too high for me. I view it as if you either have it or you don’t. I’m fine and love what I have, I’m good with never buying another card.

Last month a SGC 5 Mantle Sells for $306,000 in REA

Goldin Has a 5 Right Now it’s not as nice as REA’s ending tonight and it’s only at $122k plus the juice. Of course, we will hear $100,000 plus more is reasonable for eye appeal it's gonna get up graduate yada yada yada but when is enough? People gave a ton of money so ill on continuing to be wrong with cards only going higher in auctions lol.

[/QUOTE]

Agreed. Most pundits are like broken clocks, inevitably they will be right once in a while, but mostly not.

[Snapolit1]

Just wondering if for your run of the mill nice $15,000 card, whether maybe there are 8 people really actively looking for one as opposed to 18 or 28 a year ago. Not that no one is ponying up, but maybe the number of people in the pool has dropped a good bit. Would make sense to me in light of everything else going on in the economy.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Just wondering if for your run of the mill nice $15,000 card, whether maybe there are 8 people really actively looking for one as opposed to 18 or 28 a year ago. Not that no one is ponying up, but maybe the number of people in the pool has dropped a good bit. Would make sense to me in light of everything else going on in the economy.

I get this feeling too. FOMO is gone, quick flip is gone, cheap money is gone. I also think the collectibles market is a 6-9 month trailing indicator. You also have these investment groups/consortiums that have pooled money to "invest" in cards, they'll start losing money after the promised returns don't materialize and they'll move on to the next shiny object.

A good real estate analogy would be that the all cash offers 150K above list are no longer happening.

And it can't happen fast enough in my opinion. As a collector I would much rather pay 5k for a card I want instead of 8k. Your Gehrig is a perfect example, I would guess the 1st buyer was an investor and the second a collector. Beautiful card and worth what the 2nd guy got it for, not what the 1st guy got it for.

In the restaurant business we have an old saying, it's always the second guy who makes money after the first guy goes broke spending all the money building it out and the second guy buys the assets for pennies on the dollar.

[raulus]

I do think that outliers can be a factor, particularly on the high side.

You get a couple of guys bidding against each other. They both get emotionally invested. They both start clearing a spot on their wall to display it. They both start thinking, “Who does this other guy think he is? I crap bigger than him! I make $X million every year!!! I’m not going to let this blackguard win!!!” Next thing you know, it’s been bid up by 4x the real price.

But maybe I’m just projecting…

[irv]

I mainly follow 52 Topps cards, and not near as much as I use to, but I am not seeing a drop off.
If anything, I am seeing the opposite, at least lately.
Could have something to do with the 9.5 Mantle, but that is just a guess.
https://www.psacard.com/priceguide/b...952-topps/1129

[Schlesinj]

I jumped in late to the SCP auction and noticed the photos seemed lower in price. I liked that Barnstorming photo as well but I was too late to notice it. I was not planning buying, but i grabbed two items.

I won a lot which included 27 snap shots from Aaron’s 715th, 3 of which slabbed of the swing (it did not have a bid and I bid with 1 second to go). Also grabbed a photo from Home Run Derby TV show of Mantle. That exact photo sold on RMY earlier this year for $2,200, which I lost then. I won it for just under 1k after BP.

I will admit both kind of a weird niche vs cards that are easier to track consistent prices.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

My financial guy says at least 6-9 months more of volatility and some more pain but clouds clear next summer sometime.

I've long subscribed to the wall street adage "no one knows 'nuthin. And if they do they're not talking.

Definitely agree with the latter, as for the former I have serious reservations and think the November election can and will heavily sway the market. Waiting nervously to see if 6-9 is the upswing or the start of much worse.

[robertsmithnocure]

Out of curiosity, what was the ticket and photo that you are referring to?

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by robertsmithnocure

Out of curiosity, what was the ticket and photo that you are referring to?

Ticket below.

The photo was the Ruth Gehrig barnstorming photo in SCP last night.

[Snapolit1]

Maybe just outliers, but those strike me as pretty significant corrections, if that is what they are.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

This one caught my eye. Others too.

Wow, that's pretty crazy. Not a great endorsement for SCP.

I saw that over a dozen of their items (including some of their bigger items like some of the Bill Russell rings) didn't appear to make the reserve and were therefore not sold.

Of course the one item I really wanted--a picture of Clemente after he hit the game winning home run in Game 7 of the '71 World Series tripled in price in overtime, and I lost it.

[Lorewalker]

Not sure when the economy gets healthy again but I do know that it will and at some point thereafter it will get weak again because that is what happens. I guess I do not worry or focus on the ups and down. Way out of my control.

The results posted, while a small sample, are consistent with what has been seen in the overall market since April/May. Maybe now it is impacting prices more broadly.

SCP's auction last night looked pretty solid on the dozen or so card offerings I just checked. The fact is that there is a better chance now of something going light than there was 6 months ago. Fewer buyers willing to pay top dollar even for great items will have that impact.

[Exhibitman]

I'm not sure you can make generalizations based on specific results, especially for items like tickets or photos, where the market is thinner. One guy who decides he's out and you can see a 50% drop in prices from auction to auction. As an ephemera collector and boxing type card collector, that is a consistent thing over the years: one or two people drop out and the market falls back significantly.

I've stopped thinking short term, except opportunistically. After nearly 50 years of buying and selling cards my focus is more on either whether I want to have something until I really liquidate, or on where I think the item is likely to be when I liquidate.

[boneheadandrube]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

This one caught my eye. Others too.

Centering!

[Jetsfan]

I see that the SGC 3.5 52T Mantle didn’t sell in SCP last night. Anyone know what the final bid was?

[jsfriedm]

Originally Posted by Jetsfan

I see that the SGC 3.5 52T Mantle didn’t sell in SCP last night. Anyone know what the final bid was?

51 Bowman Mantle PSA 7 didn't sell either. A lot of the top lots didn't sell. That would seem to be strongest indicator of all.

[Jetsfan]

I agree Jeremy. Just wondering if there was a ridiculous reserve price.

[jsfriedm]

Originally Posted by Jetsfan

I agree Jeremy. Just wondering if there was a ridiculous reserve price.

Last I saw the 51 Bowman, it was in the low 60Ks, with buyer's premium. Centering was not good, but even so, I would expect that to be an 80K card, minimum.

[Rhotchkiss]

I didn’t even know SCP had an auction ending last night.

Looking now at some of the results, the following cards that I would have tracked did very well:

T206 Cobb bat off psa 6 ($37k- record)
1914 CJ Cobb psa 3 ($50k - record)
E92 Dockman Wagner throwing PSA 4 ($9k - record)

So it appears that some cards did great, some flopped, and surely some did as expected. I don’t think any broad conclusions can be drawn

[Rad_Hazard]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

This one caught my eye. Others too.

I can't speak to some of the other oddities, but on first glance, the SGC Gehrig has MUCH better centering and that affects value more than one would think it would. It also looks brighter, but that could just be the scan or photo doctoring. Centering plays such a huge role, and I am 100% guilty of paying large premiums for centered cards regardless of the grade.