Auction amounts - how high is high

[parkplace33]

I am floored over and over again with the prices realized in card auctions. Just looked up a few this year compared to past years, it is mind blowing. If you get a few minutes, check out auctions results from 5 years ago.

For a few years, I thought it was just a bump and would go up and then down. Now, I don’t think it is going down, at least not in the foreseeable future.

[53toppscollector]

I was reading through old T206 reference threads last night and someone mentioned picking up a Hindu Brown for $25. I just closed the thread. I wish I had a time machine to go back 20 years and give myself card collecting advice

[Fred]

Are you asking at what amount the price is high or at what amount we think the bidder is "high" (on something)?

[Johnny630]

For me Selling my good stuff now would be leaving a lot of money behind. Not worth it. We are only going up on the good stuff, it’s never coming down. Many rich people are in love with cards. It’s an Apple Like Cult Addiction once you have one and make a few bucks you only want more.

[Hankphenom]

There's some powerful voodoo going on, no doubt about it. But here's my question: what percentage of the big money driving the big prices today is for collecting, and how much for investment and speculation? I'll start by guessing about 20% collecting and 80% investment. Love to hear what others think, and why.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

There's some powerful voodoo going on, no doubt about it. But here's my question: what percentage of the big money driving the big prices today is for collecting, and how much for investment and speculation? I'll start by guessing about 20% collecting and 80% investment. Love to hear what others think, and why.

Hank great question !!

What I see at Major card shows is people being careful with their money buying what they love, not over spending more aka collectors.

Major Auction House Big Time Cards are where the big money players come in. One thing is for certain they have done well with what they have bought in the past, it’s an addiction. Whether they’re collectors, investors or speculators makes no bit of difference to me. All I know is they're spending big money on the big boys in AHs. I don’t see them at shows. What I've seen has been a divergence in sale prices at shows vs in major actions.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

There's some powerful voodoo going on, no doubt about it. But here's my question: what percentage of the big money driving the big prices today is for collecting, and how much for investment and speculation? I'll start by guessing about 20% collecting and 80% investment. Love to hear what others think, and why.

I won't speculate on the percentages of what makes up the market but good stuff has historically always gone for more year over year. I do not see that changing. What I do see changing are the number of people who are in the present market. As an investor I don't think you will maintain the interest and attention span that one has as a collector.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

There's some powerful voodoo going on, no doubt about it. But here's my question: what percentage of the big money driving the big prices today is for collecting, and how much for investment and speculation? I'll start by guessing about 20% collecting and 80% investment. Love to hear what others think, and why.

Unfortunately, in today's hobby, i think you are correct.
.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

For me Selling my good stuff now would be leaving a lot of money behind. Not worth it. We are only going up on the good stuff, it’s never coming down. Many rich people are in love with cards. It’s an Apple Like Cult Addiction once you have one and make a few bucks you only want more.

Agreed completely, except for currently holding good stuff part. I don’t have that. But I got in and am hooked.

[Rhotchkiss]

I think many collectors become investors and investors become collectors. Cards are unique. You can hold them, you can share them, there are so many ways to go about “collecting” them - you can make sets, player runs, back runs, etc. Cards are history, cultural, antiques, memories, people you idolize and root for. Cards have value and a history of increasing in value. For these reasons, and likely many more, many collectors necessarily look at their collections as assets (thus at least somewhat investments) and many investors come to love their “investments” and start acting somewhat like collectors in deciding what to buy and what/when you sell (or not sell). Plus cards are only semi-liquid - they are kind of a pain to sell yourself and tough to get immediate cash unless you are an active seller at shows or on eBay. I feel this semi-liquidity makes it even more likely that people will hold cards for longer durations.

Bottom line, as Johnny said, cards are powerful things and once bitten, it’s tough to shake the addiction for more and better

[Tyruscobb]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

We are only going up on the good stuff, it’s never coming down.

Only going up and never coming down? This was the housing market’s same sentiment in 2006. This same dangerous sentiment has also financially ruined several stock market “investors” over the years.

Everything comes down. It is just a matter of when and how far. On 1/27/22, a ‘51 Bowman Mantle PSA 8 sold for $504k. Six months later, on 7/21/22, the exact card hammered for only $444k. A $60k loss in six short months. This is just one example. I could cite several similar examples over the past six months in the vintage baseball card market. Also, take a look at the high-end basketball card market.

The Fed can’t soft land this economic plane. The financial markets will worsen in 2023. Demand for high-end cards will further soften. Portfolio values psychology affect spending habits and feelings. I don’t see whales taking double digit portfolio loses (at least on paper) while still dropping deep six figures on cardboard that goes immediately into a safe or safety deposit box.

Not only can the “good stuff” go down, it will go down.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Sure, in any short period there were ups and downs, but over time what's the trend?

[nwobhm]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

….it’s never coming down…..

Good luck with that….there is a crash coming. Next year, 5 years, 10 years…. Who knows….. but it is definitely coming. When it hits it’s going to be huge.

[53toppscollector]

Here is a sales chart (auctions only) for a 1952 Topps Mantle in a PSA 5.

* not all 5s are equal. obviously.

Make of it what you will

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Fred

Are you asking at what amount the price is high or at what amount we think the bidder is "high" (on something)?

I LOLed at this.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

I was reading through old T206 reference threads last night and someone mentioned picking up a Hindu Brown for $25. I just closed the thread. I wish I had a time machine to go back 20 years and give myself card collecting advice

Being able to go back 40+ is a bit worse... Most T206 Hofers were $10 in Vg, maybe a bit better. Goudey Ruths were 100....