Auction amounts - how high is high
 

I am floored over and over again with the prices realized in card auctions. Just looked up a few this year compared to past years, it is mind blowing. If you get a few minutes, check out auctions results from 5 years ago.

For a few years, I thought it was just a bump and would go up and then down. Now, I don’t think it is going down, at least not in the foreseeable future.

I was reading through old T206 reference threads last night and someone mentioned picking up a Hindu Brown for $25. I just closed the thread. I wish I had a time machine to go back 20 years and give myself card collecting advice

Are you asking at what amount the price is high or at what amount we think the bidder is "high" (on something)?

For me Selling my good stuff now would be leaving a lot of money behind. Not worth it. We are only going up on the good stuff, it’s never coming down. Many rich people are in love with cards. It’s an Apple Like Cult Addiction once you have one and make a few bucks you only want more.

There's some powerful voodoo going on, no doubt about it. But here's my question: what percentage of the big money driving the big prices today is for collecting, and how much for investment and speculation? I'll start by guessing about 20% collecting and 80% investment. Love to hear what others think, and why.

Hank great question !!

What I see at Major card shows is people being careful with their money buying what they love, not over spending more aka collectors.

Major Auction House Big Time Cards are where the big money players come in. One thing is for certain they have done well with what they have bought in the past, it’s an addiction. Whether they’re collectors, investors or speculators makes no bit of difference to me. All I know is they're spending big money on the big boys in AHs. I don’t see them at shows. What I've seen has been a divergence in sale prices at shows vs in major actions.

[QUOTE=Johnny630;2255015]Hank great question !!

What I see at Major card shows is people being careful with their money buying what they love, not over spending more aka collectors.

Major Auction House Big Time Cards are where the big money players come in. One thing is for certain they have done well with what they have bought in the past, it’s an addiction. Whether they’re collectors, investors or speculators makes no bit of difference t}
o me. All I know is they're spending big money on the big boys in AHs. I don’t see them at shows. What I've seen has been a divergence in sale prices at shows vs in major actions.[/QUOTE}


Nothing new IMO. Auctions have always brought out the giddy buyers who, late at night, are suddenly willing to pay substantially more than what relatively available cards might be seling for on ebay, etc.

I won't speculate on the percentages of what makes up the market but good stuff has historically always gone for more year over year. I do not see that changing. What I do see changing are the number of people who are in the present market. As an investor I don't think you will maintain the interest and attention span that one has as a collector.

I attribute higher prices via AH is more than just buyers being giddy late at night.

Cards selling at auction via AH are predominantly higher quality than what is recycled week after week, month after month on EBay.

Not to mention the BP juice is added to the final price on AH results which is reflected on VCP, where Ebay has no BP on top of what they sell.

Obviously more elite cards show up in AHs by a longshot, but I was talking about commodity cards (say a midgrade Mantle) where I don't think there's any quality difference.

The other interesting thing, imo, is that you have far FEWER eyes on auction house listings, which makes me think that finding bargains on lower grade, more under the radar items might be easier than ebay, where items are potentially getting many more views.

I am currently the high bidder on a LOTG auction now that has only 61 views, and I guarantee if that card were listed on ebay, it would have a lot more views.

Agreed completely, except for currently holding good stuff part. I don’t have that. But I got in and am hooked.

I think many collectors become investors and investors become collectors. Cards are unique. You can hold them, you can share them, there are so many ways to go about “collecting” them - you can make sets, player runs, back runs, etc. Cards are history, cultural, antiques, memories, people you idolize and root for. Cards have value and a history of increasing in value. For these reasons, and likely many more, many collectors necessarily look at their collections as assets (thus at least somewhat investments) and many investors come to love their “investments” and start acting somewhat like collectors in deciding what to buy and what/when you sell (or not sell). Plus cards are only semi-liquid - they are kind of a pain to sell yourself and tough to get immediate cash unless you are an active seller at shows or on eBay. I feel this semi-liquidity makes it even more likely that people will hold cards for longer durations.

Bottom line, as Johnny said, cards are powerful things and once bitten, it’s tough to shake the addiction for more and better

Only going up and never coming down? This was the housing market’s same sentiment in 2006. This same dangerous sentiment has also financially ruined several stock market “investors” over the years.

Everything comes down. It is just a matter of when and how far. On 1/27/22, a ‘51 Bowman Mantle PSA 8 sold for $504k. Six months later, on 7/21/22, the exact card hammered for only $444k. A $60k loss in six short months. This is just one example. I could cite several similar examples over the past six months in the vintage baseball card market. Also, take a look at the high-end basketball card market.

The Fed can’t soft land this economic plane. The financial markets will worsen in 2023. Demand for high-end cards will further soften. Portfolio values psychology affect spending habits and feelings. I don’t see whales taking double digit portfolio loses (at least on paper) while still dropping deep six figures on cardboard that goes immediately into a safe or safety deposit box.

Not only can the “good stuff” go down, it will go down.

Sure, in any short period there were ups and downs, but over time what's the trend?

The good stuff will go up, over the long haul. I wouldn't count on it in the next couple years on the whole. There seems to be little realistic hope that this soft landing is going to happen; we're likely in for a poor Q4 and 2023 economically that I doubt cards will escape.

Personally, if I was about the cash, I would not buy commodity cards right now. Wait 6-12 months and evaluate. If you buy a 52 Mantle today, you'll make money in 20 years. But if you buy it next year, you might make more profit in 20 years.

Far more people have failed trying to time the market than have succeeded. There's always a gloom and doom case how we're on the edge of disaster, I've seen one or more virtually every day for 15 years. IMO anyone acting like they know what's going to happen is just speculating like anyone else. Pundits have an astonishing history of being wrong..

I don't think it's doom and gloom to observe the likelihood the economy is likely to decline a bit further over the short term. One will never time it exactly, it will be fine in the long haul; but it's not doom and gloom to acknowledge present realities. The economy falters for periods; there's little reason to think the turn around is about to hit and reverse what's happening.

I've read enough absolutely wrong short as well as long term prognostications that I completely disregard all of them, no disrespect to you intended. As the joke goes, economists have successfully predicted five out of the last three recessions.

I'd agree if it's predicting recessions, but we are already in it. I have no idea when the next one will be, but I'd gamble on buying commodity items a bit later; recessions don't tend to fix right away.

The one guarantee is that any stock I buy will drop a couple points lower the next day after I try to time the bottom ;). This is why I don't have the stomach for day trading. When times are bad, I buy. When times are good, I hold and wait for the next big dip to buy more.

After reading Eugene Fama and Bogle's book and one other whose name I forget, I became more and more convinced that investing a lot in individual stocks was problematic without inside information, and trying to time them even worse. I ignored my own advice not that long ago because I loved NVDA but geez it's been a disaster, and I don't want to keep buying the dip.

Completely agree. Anyone that claims they know certain things about the current economic state are kidding themselves.

I put a whole lot more into S&P index funds than anything else. I think it's pretty hard to lose, doing properly managed index funds, if you're in it for the long haul and don't panic sell at every dip. Like your DOW chart, it generally goes up, up and up over long periods of time and serves as a good bet against inflation and my cash on hand losing money sitting in the bank every year. My plan is generally to just let that ride and sit until I really need it, which will be in a low income year where my tax rate will be lower. Individual shares scare me more, I'm careful, don't go too deep into anything and generally pick long-term good bets, which don't always work out at all. I don't know how the day traders don't have heart attacks. But what do I know, if I had it figured it out I'd be on a private island with my Wagner's :D

Warren Buffett’s advice is it’s a wise move to put all of your investment dollars in a well managed S&P fund.

Well said !

With all the bidding and high prices, it’s a wonder why auctions houses haven’t offered lines of credit for buyers.

I know some big buyers in these auction houses mostly dealers get 90 days or more to pay because of their history of bidding and spending with the auction house. Sometimes they’ll get the cards even in advance before they pay the auction house.

I think what helps the auction houses out a lot when it comes to pricing is the fact they get so many nice cards in one place at one time. When you get most of the collectors and investors eyes on something at the same time, you are probably going to get good results. If ebay gets a nice card or two then it’s auctioned but not as many guys may see that card go off or even wait around to bid on it. With rea and others you get all the eyes on every card and then guys may throw bids on something else since they already are bidding on others. Ebay just will never have the amount of quality cards going off at one same time. Even Lotg last night, you may see those some of those cards on ebay here and there but look at how many tobacco, caramel etc cards they had all guaranteed to be sold at the same time. Also do not discount catalogs and fact guys can prepare accordingly.

I LOLed at this.

Just think of all the people who panic sold in the coronavirus crash. It's easier said than done to stay the course, but 100 years or more of history is on your side.

Wait a sec, isn't that already sort of being done by at least one of the "vault" providers that also functions as an AH? My understanding was they offered advances on items being held. And wouldn't be surprised if some other AHs weren't already offering something similar under certain circumstances as well.

I often wonder what percentage of big spenders in auction could be doing one or some of the following,

1. Taking loans against their 401k’s to fund card buys.

2. Using a Cash advance on their credit cards to fund buy.

3. Taking a business line or credit out to fund.

I thought they went 9 for 4?

Look, no one knows the future; if they did, they sure as hell wouldn't be sharing the information. What we do know, empirically, is that cards have a 40+ year track record that has been overall nicely positive for long-term owners. The real challenge is deciding where to get out, if at all. I am certainly tempted to cash out some of the really big gainers but my longer term plan is to retire from my work and make liquidating my collection my retirement project, so there is no reason to worry about it now. Seeing the prices does make me feel like a friggin' genius for buying so many cards 30 years ago and not selling most of them (sure wish I had that NM Aaron RC back again), but I know it was far less acumen than happenstance and laziness, respectively, that drove me to buy and hold.

As far as eBay goes, when I see a card of a certain price point, I am reluctant to risk that money on eBay. The AHs do offer a certain amount of security in making the purchase, with the added bonus of not having expensive cards traipse up and down and across the country multiple times so that PSA or CSG can vouch for them...because fakes and scams are so prevalent on eBay; that must be the case since eBay is forcing this review step into the process, and why would they do that other than to combat rampant thievery? Ironic how I never really sweated $500 eBay purchases until eBay signaled that I should.

Good luck with that….there is a crash coming. Next year, 5 years, 10 years…. Who knows….. but it is definitely coming. When it hits it’s going to be huge.

Here is a sales chart (auctions only) for a 1952 Topps Mantle in a PSA 5.

* not all 5s are equal. obviously.

Make of it what you will

https://i.ibb.co/5MbRBvS/mantle5.png

I don't know about auction prices but I can say that I setup at a local card show yesterday and had my best show in a long time. The amount of young kids that picked through my dollar boxes and wanted to talk about old players was awesome. It really made me feel good about the future of the hobby.

This is a great graphic and is very telling.

How high is high.

Quaaludes, tons of alcohol and shill bidding. Then repeat, oh, until you win.

That's great to hear. Curious: what does a dollar get you in vintage these days?

Each line represents one sale, I assume? In any case, the market for this card seems to be extremely erratic lately. Is that typical of the high-end market, and what do you think it means?

I think the graph is meant to show the difference in final prices between examples is quite variable depending on centering and eye appeal within grades.

Agreed with all of Ryan's points especially the point about cards being an addiction.

I know this isn't cards, but on a Facebook Ticket Collectors Group a person posted that he sold 2 Deion Sanders Debut Ticket stubs, that sold at Goldin last Saturday night for about 400 & 500.

He said last year he sold a couple that went for 1500-2000.

So not everything is going up.

The graph shows all of the sales of a PSA 5 via auction.

A 5 sold through REA for $138,000 on Aug 15, 2021. It is a very crisp, well centered example. Two weeks later, a 5 that had worse centering and color sold at LOTG for $68k. That exact same card was sold by gregmorriscards2 on ebay for $83k a few weeks after.

The bigger point is that the Mantle has gone way up since 2006. There are price fluctuations, but if you bought one in 2006 for $16k, and you sell it now for the average price of the last 5 ($110,000) then you've made yourself a nice profit. And at no point, since 2006, has it looked like your investment would lose money. If you buy one now for $130,000 and the next sale is for $75,000, then maybe you'd worry a bit, but if you are buying these cards with the idea to hold on to them for a long time, it seems unlikely to me that they are going to crater (or even really go down) in value

Edit: another note to consider when comparing baseball cards as investments to the stock market is that your baseball card isn't going to change in 10, 20 or 50 years. A 1952 Topps Mantle is going to still be a 1952 Topps Mantle 10 years from now, and they aren't making any more of them. An index fund for the S&P 500 will change over the next 10 years as companies enter and drop out of the index. The stock market will ebb and flow and will likely continue to rise. But to what extent is obviously unknown. The next 10-15 years could see significant changes to the way we live based on things like climate change, and industries that appear strong now may begin to crater. Likewise, new industries that really aren't prominent now might be much more important and be significant financial catalysts in 10 years. Predicting that is hard. A 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle will still be exactly the same 10 years from now. And I would argue it would be a bit more fun to hold in your hand than a statement from your stock broker, but your mileage may vary :-)

Being able to go back 40+ is a bit worse... Most T206 Hofers were $10 in Vg, maybe a bit better. Goudey Ruths were 100....

Right the card won't change, but the percentage of people who want that card will drastically change.

I would guess that 75-80% of NET54 members are 50 and over. In 30 years when all of those are dead or near dead, unless there is a HUGE shift in the collecting age demographic, the demand could very well be A LOT less, thus the price dropping big time.

The 52 Topps Mantle Ownership is a Club...has a cult like following, kind of like Apple products. A good cult like following that is passionate and addicted to it, it's a good thing. This card will always be in demand, in any grade.

I mean, maybe, but maybe not. There are kids in their 20s/30s who are obsessed with T206 cards and none of them ever saw any of those guys play. In fact, is there anyone on this board who ever saw any of the T206 subjects actually play a game? That would be impossible, I believe, just based on basic math.

Mantle isn't just a sports icon, hes a cultural icon. Kids today who are 12 years old and love baseball know who Mickey Mantle was. When they get older, they too will want a 1952 Mantle, most likely.

The T206 craze and Mantle both fall into the age 50-80 current group. Yes there will be some under 50 who will want those, but WAY WAY WAY less. From reading posts over the year almost all say my kids have no interest in my cards/collection. Yes there will be some, but not close to the numbers of those who grew up in the 60's, 70's & 80's that is responsible for Mantle & T206 collecting.

That HUGE group is going to go away. You or someone can do a Poll on here and see how many under 50 "set collectors", etc there are, my guess a bare minimum. Again I'd say maybe 20% of NET54. Maybe.

Set Collecting has gone the way of the dinosaur, agree. However I know more and more younger people that are collecting high grade 50’s and 60’s Star Cards, Mantle is always top of their list. We are talking 20-40 age range. To me there is no comparison between set builders and Star Collectors in High Grade. They want the money cards not the commons.

This is post has post has prob 5-10 guys seriously thinking about trying to join the 52 Mantle Club