Auction amounts - how high is high

[Hankphenom]

There's some powerful voodoo going on, no doubt about it. But here's my question: what percentage of the big money driving the big prices today is for collecting, and how much for investment and speculation? I'll start by guessing about 20% collecting and 80% investment. Love to hear what others think, and why.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

There's some powerful voodoo going on, no doubt about it. But here's my question: what percentage of the big money driving the big prices today is for collecting, and how much for investment and speculation? I'll start by guessing about 20% collecting and 80% investment. Love to hear what others think, and why.

Hank great question !!

What I see at Major card shows is people being careful with their money buying what they love, not over spending more aka collectors.

Major Auction House Big Time Cards are where the big money players come in. One thing is for certain they have done well with what they have bought in the past, it’s an addiction. Whether they’re collectors, investors or speculators makes no bit of difference to me. All I know is they're spending big money on the big boys in AHs. I don’t see them at shows. What I've seen has been a divergence in sale prices at shows vs in major actions.

[Peter_Spaeth]

[QUOTE=Johnny630;2255015]Hank great question !!

What I see at Major card shows is people being careful with their money buying what they love, not over spending more aka collectors.

Major Auction House Big Time Cards are where the big money players come in. One thing is for certain they have done well with what they have bought in the past, it’s an addiction. Whether they’re collectors, investors or speculators makes no bit of difference t}
o me. All I know is they're spending big money on the big boys in AHs. I don’t see them at shows. What I've seen has been a divergence in sale prices at shows vs in major actions.[/QUOTE}


Nothing new IMO. Auctions have always brought out the giddy buyers who, late at night, are suddenly willing to pay substantially more than what relatively available cards might be seling for on ebay, etc.

[3-2-count]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Nothing new IMO. Auctions have always brought out the giddy buyers who, late at night, are suddenly willing to pay substantially more than what relatively available cards might be seling for on ebay, etc.

I attribute higher prices via AH is more than just buyers being giddy late at night.

Cards selling at auction via AH are predominantly higher quality than what is recycled week after week, month after month on EBay.

Not to mention the BP juice is added to the final price on AH results which is reflected on VCP, where Ebay has no BP on top of what they sell.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by 3-2-count

I attribute higher prices via AH is more than just buyers being giddy late at night.

Cards selling at auction via AH are predominantly higher quality than what is recycled week after week, month after month on EBay.

Not to mention the BP juice is added to the final price on AH results which is reflected on VCP, where Ebay has no BP on top of what they sell.

Obviously more elite cards show up in AHs by a longshot, but I was talking about commodity cards (say a midgrade Mantle) where I don't think there's any quality difference.

[53toppscollector]

The other interesting thing, imo, is that you have far FEWER eyes on auction house listings, which makes me think that finding bargains on lower grade, more under the radar items might be easier than ebay, where items are potentially getting many more views.

I am currently the high bidder on a LOTG auction now that has only 61 views, and I guarantee if that card were listed on ebay, it would have a lot more views.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

There's some powerful voodoo going on, no doubt about it. But here's my question: what percentage of the big money driving the big prices today is for collecting, and how much for investment and speculation? I'll start by guessing about 20% collecting and 80% investment. Love to hear what others think, and why.

I won't speculate on the percentages of what makes up the market but good stuff has historically always gone for more year over year. I do not see that changing. What I do see changing are the number of people who are in the present market. As an investor I don't think you will maintain the interest and attention span that one has as a collector.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

There's some powerful voodoo going on, no doubt about it. But here's my question: what percentage of the big money driving the big prices today is for collecting, and how much for investment and speculation? I'll start by guessing about 20% collecting and 80% investment. Love to hear what others think, and why.

Unfortunately, in today's hobby, i think you are correct.
.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Leon

Unfortunately, in today's hobby, i think you are correct.
.

I would agree probably 80 % investing and what happens the big money starts buying up the higher grade cards so they are no longer available or affordable so the middle grade card becomes the go to piece for more people this driving demand and lowering supply and thus driving up prices.
Then collectors look for other collecting options ie memorabilia, photos etc and those items go up as the demand also.

So collectors still collect but buy less because paying more or they buy lower grades than they had in the past

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

I would agree probably 80 % investing and what happens the big money starts buying up the higher grade cards so they are no longer available or affordable so the middle grade card becomes the go to piece for more people this driving demand and lowering supply and thus driving up prices. Then collectors look for other collecting options ie memorabilia, photos etc and those items go up as the demand also. So collectors still collect but buy less because paying more or they buy lower grades than they had in the past

I think cards have become a fungible commodity, like coins and metals in general, stocks, bitcoins, art, etc., and there are no doubt consortiums of investors here and abroad moving into and out of them like any other commodity with the help of professional advisors, AHs, etc. The further you move in the hobby away from graded cards, into memorabilia and oddball of all kinds, the percentage of collectors probably goes up and that of investors goes down, but as you say, there is a snowball effect driving everything up as collectors search to find affordable niches in the marketplace in which they can still compete.

[53toppscollector]

One more chart



The obvious caveat here is compound interest.

Your stock portfolio compounds, so the amount you have invested every year would increase exponentially in an index fund. If you had bought one Red Cobb in 2010 and held it, you still only own 1 Red Cobb today. I picked those cards mostly at random (and quickly) just to look at, they are all iconic cards in the hobby, obviously, and their value is different from a 1987 Topps Wade Boggs. I wanted to use the 1989 UD Griffey, but there were just too many sales in a PSA 10 and the site wasn't loading properly, lol. I thought this chart was interesting to just to see how drastically those cards have shot up in the last 12 years

I used VCP to get the average sale price for each of the cards in the given year in the grade noted. For the S&P 500 numbers, I just exported the closing price for every day from 2010 through today, and took the closing number on the last day of the year for every year. For 2022, obviously I used yesterday's closing price, from here

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EG...stedClose=true

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

One more chart



The obvious caveat here is compound interest.

Your stock portfolio compounds, so the amount you have invested every year would increase exponentially in an index fund. If you had bought one Red Cobb in 2010 and held it, you still only own 1 Red Cobb today. I picked those cards mostly at random (and quickly) just to look at, they are all iconic cards in the hobby, obviously, and their value is different from a 1987 Topps Wade Boggs. I wanted to use the 1989 UD Griffey, but there were just too many sales in a PSA 10 and the site wasn't loading properly, lol. I thought this chart was interesting to just to see how drastically those cards have shot up in the last 12 years

I used VCP to get the average sale price for each of the cards in the given year in the grade noted. For the S&P 500 numbers, I just exported the closing price for every day from 2010 through today, and took the closing number on the last day of the year for every year. For 2022, obviously, I used yesterday's closing price, from here

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EG...stedClose=true

Excellent Chart Thank You!

This is what I have been saying for the past several years if you’re collecting as an investment you want the best players, the best well-known card issue(not oddball) of the highest graded nicest centered you can find. This Chart Shows that!

1. Ruth
2. Cobb
3. Jackie
4. Mantle
5. Mays

[JeremyW]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Excellent Chart Thank You!

This is what I have been saying for the past several years if you’re collecting as an investment you want the best players, the best well-known card issue(not oddball) of the highest graded nicest centered you can find. This Chart Shows that!

1. Ruth
2. Cobb
3. Jackie
4. Mantle
5. Mays

I think oddball issues are solid with any of these players.

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

One more chart



The obvious caveat here is compound interest.

Your stock portfolio compounds, so the amount you have invested every year would increase exponentially in an index fund. If you had bought one Red Cobb in 2010 and held it, you still only own 1 Red Cobb today. I picked those cards mostly at random (and quickly) just to look at, they are all iconic cards in the hobby, obviously, and their value is different from a 1987 Topps Wade Boggs. I wanted to use the 1989 UD Griffey, but there were just too many sales in a PSA 10 and the site wasn't loading properly, lol. I thought this chart was interesting to just to see how drastically those cards have shot up in the last 12 years

I used VCP to get the average sale price for each of the cards in the given year in the grade noted. For the S&P 500 numbers, I just exported the closing price for every day from 2010 through today, and took the closing number on the last day of the year for every year. For 2022, obviously I used yesterday's closing price, from here

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EG...stedClose=true

Did any of these grade level cards go at Heritage yesterday? Curious if they went up or down?

[Yoda]

The fine art market is currently on fire. it appears that high value cards of the usual suspects is now being considered marginal fine art as rich folks reset their asset allocations. A '14 CJ Joe Jax the same as a Picasso? Not quite, of course, but definitely a shift in investor attitudes.