In light of T206 fiasco...

[theshleps]

What do you think will happen?
Will prices of vintage signed cards plummet?
Will it all be forgotten in a few months?
Obviously a few fakes will slip through the cracks?
How many of us will be motivated to get out of the hobby?
Will prices rise with diminished supply? Will those of us with fakes be motivated to fill in the holes in our collection that opened or will we be too skeptical
Many possibly scenarios- any ideas?
So far I have one bad one (Flick). My Crawfords and another Flick seem good so far and the 8 or more Marquards look good (tho one is the sig auction one that the first discovered fake was modeled after). Wouldn't be surprised if others of mine turn out bad. And that doesn't include T205, 202, 201 etc

[GoCubsGo32]

What do you think will happen?
-Time to shake the tree... the damages are adding up fast.

Will prices of vintage signed cards plummet?
-No.

Will it all be forgotten in a few months?
-Yes, but not totally forgotten.

Obviously a few fakes will slip through the cracks?
-Without a doubt.

How many of us will be motivated to get out of the hobby?
-I don't think it will be a lot. Maybe a few. Last time (IMO) there was a recent big hobby shift was when "The List" was release of the shill bidding. Confidences were dropped...auction houses responded. I feel the same with this. Confidences will drop..but they're be an appropriate respond to help ease collectors ( from AH's...TPGs etc..)

Will prices rise with diminished supply? Will those of us with fakes be motivated to fill in the holes in our collection that opened or will we be too skeptical.Many possibly scenarios- any ideas?
-Really hard to tell what will happen. Too soon.

[ATP]

That's a lot of questions
My heart is pretty sad tonight as I read about more and more of these popping up. I'll just stick to one question for the time being, and that is if this will have an impact on signed T206 card prices? I think the answer to that is definitely yes at least for the time being. It really only takes removing a few of the larger interested parties in these to impact the price, even taking out two or three potential bidders can result in a much lower hammer price. I haven't bought one in about four years and probably wasn't planning to...but now, even if I saw one I really wanted I probably wouldn't bid on it if it was in an auction and I had no access to it's history, where it came from, who I was buying it from, how long they had it, can I inspect it in person, etc. It's really sad and I feel bad for everyone who is holding on to one of these cards and watching the stone cold evidence be revealed that what might be one of their favorite pieces was a sham. I haven't followed signed cards from other issues all that closely, but if I were someone who recently purchased some tough signed Goudeys or Playballs or other pre war era cards, I would be really concerned.

[chalupacollects]

My two cents...

Hopefully, the forgers are named an prosecuted.

Hopefully the TPG's learn from this and start getting it right or getting out.

Hopefully the AH's maybe do some due diligence toi items walking thr9ough the door.

Prices will probably rise for specimens with impeccable provenance... those that don't have it won't...

Me - I have never pursued them and won't now...

[jgmp123]

I anticipate the prices for Government and Legal documents containing signatures to increase in the hobby.

[Bpm0014]

I was going to ask some of these same questions...

I believe that the signed T206 prices will remain strong with so many examples being weeded out as no good. Thus as the signed T206 population decreases, prices will increase (or at least remain the same/strong). It's not necessarily a bad thing to have these signed cards strongly scrutinized now. I own 2 (from thw 2007 Pittsburgh find).

[egri]

I am torn; this seems so much bigger than anything that has happened that I can recall that I want to say there will be a long term impact; that so many of the cards passed multiple TPAs suggests either gross negligence or involvement on their part. OTOH, we know that Probstein and PWCC shill bid; people still bid with them, we know that the Gretzky Wagner is trimmed; it still passed PSA, we know that TPAs have all kinds of problems; at the National, PSA always has a line out the door. Stuff trumps scruples, and I would not be surprised if the next 'find' of signed prewar yields the same excitement and prices as before.

Side note: what on earth is going on with CLCT stock? At the end of January they were trading at $30/share, then a week later they were down to almost half of that, and been roughly stagnant since.

[Leon]

I would be careful about saying who is shill bidding. My guess is that close to 100% of it that happens with Probstein and PWCC are from the consignors or their friends and family. I can't imagine either of those guys doing it themselves. (*barring some extraordinary issue with a reason behind it.)

Originally Posted by egri

I am torn; this seems so much bigger than anything that has happened that I can recall that I want to say there will be a long term impact; that so many of the cards passed multiple TPAs suggests either gross negligence or involvement on their part. OTOH, we know that Probstein and PWCC shill bid; people still bid with them, we know that the Gretzky Wagner is trimmed; it still passed PSA, we know that TPAs have all kinds of problems; at the National, PSA always has a line out the door. Stuff trumps scruples, and I would not be surprised if the next 'find' of signed prewar yields the same excitement and prices as before.

Side note: what on earth is going on with CLCT stock? At the end of January they were trading at $30/share, then a week later they were down to almost half of that, and been roughly stagnant since.

[jgmp123]

Originally Posted by Leon

I would be careful about saying who is shill bidding. My guess is that close to 100% of it that happens with Probstein and PWCC are from the consignors of their friends and family. I can't imagine either of those guys doing it themselves. (*barring some extraordinary issue with a reason behind it.)

You also have to take into consideration the volume that Probstein and PWCC are putting out there. It's going to be hard for them to have a team of "shill bidders"..I assume it's possible, but doubtful.

[phikappapsi]

Originally Posted by Leon

I would be careful about saying who is shill bidding. My guess is that close to 100% of it that happens with Probstein and PWCC are from the consignors of their friends and family. I can't imagine either of those guys doing it themselves. (*barring some extraordinary issue with a reason behind it.)

Agree 100% - those guys are the ones I specifically DONT worry about shilling. They do so much volume, and have so many people that literally use their name as the search term, rather than the specific cards/pieces they want that their traffic always gets them top end pricing. The guys I'd worry about shilling are the ones that sell for a living, but at low volumes. The guys selling 100-300 cards a month, that really need to extract prices, and might have less traffic organically to their items.

[jimjim]

Sort of along the same topic, has anyone else noticed the number of extremely rare inscribed baseballs that have been hitting the market recently? With TPA certification. I have no proof, but does seem a bit fishy.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by jimjim

Sort of along the same topic, has anyone else noticed the number of extremely rare inscribed baseballs that have been hitting the market recently? With TPA certification. I have no proof, but does seem a bit fishy.

Yes, and I think anyone buying autographs in our hobby today needs to be really, really careful. As Jeff L said in one of the big threads, there weren't near as many autographs 10-20 yrs ago as there are today. It seems they are being made out of thin air. Collect govt and notarized docs and you have a better chance of being safe.

[tazdmb]

Originally Posted by jimjim

Sort of along the same topic, has anyone else noticed the number of extremely rare inscribed baseballs that have been hitting the market recently? With TPA certification. I have no proof, but does seem a bit fishy.

This! I have noted quite in uptick in this the last two years, and have spoke to various TPAs about this. Amazing what a #6 adds to value of a Mantle Ball. Plus everyone I have seen lately seems to authenticated by JSA. They are all over Facebook 101 also. I called them out and got banned....hmm.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by theshleps

How many of us will be motivated to get out of the hobby?

Get out of the hobby!?!? How about get EDUCATED before getting INTO the hobby in the first place?

I realize that you personally know your autographs and are probably just panicking a little. That's understandable. But go find a scan of an AUTHENTIC scanned Fred Parent T206 (believe me, you can find one that you'll be sure of) and place it next to a fake. Then you can relax. It's the people who are letting the TPA's do their thinking for them who are getting burned. Unfortunately, that's most of the signed T206 collectors.

As an aside, now that we finally have some proof regarding T206's, are any of you ready to start talking about all those signed '33 Goudey Ruth and Gehrig cards? (Lou and Babe are still signing from the grave, so rest easy collectors who are concerned about diminishing supply).

[Leon]

I have been thinking this for quite a while. It makes me have a stomach ache and I don't even collect them. So many high end Ruth and other sigs on pre-war cards. It honestly seems kind of crazy to me as to how many we see. And when it seems crazy.......

Originally Posted by Runscott

Get out of the hobby!?!? How about get EDUCATED before getting INTO the hobby in the first place?

I realize that you personally know your autographs and are probably just panicking a little. That's understandable. But go find a scan of an AUTHENTIC scanned Fred Parent T206 (believe me, you can find one that you'll be sure of) and place it next to a fake. Then you can relax. It's the people who are letting the TPA's do their thinking for them who are getting burned. Unfortunately, that's most of the signed T206 collectors.

As an aside, now that we finally have some proof regarding T206's, are any of you ready to start talking about all those signed '33 Goudey Ruth and Gehrig cards? (Lou and Babe are still signing from the grave, so rest easy collectors who are concerned about diminishing supply).

[uniship]

To take the chance to forge a signature like Ruth on a 3k to 10k card takes some huge confidence. I tend to think those sorts of cards are far less frequently forged than the cards that are less than $50.

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by uniship

To take the chance to forge a signature like Ruth on a 3k to 10k card takes some huge confidence. I tend to think those sorts of cards are far less frequently forged than the cards that are less than $50.

Ruth’s also draw a lot of attention — TPAs and collectors alike become critics. When $20 commons can sell for $6,000+ like in the T206 world, that’s where it really pays to forge — very low risk, extremely high reward. Us signed T206 collectors were more or less inviting the criminals in.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by T206Collector

Ruth’s also draw a lot of attention — TPAs and collectors alike become critics. When $20 commons can sell for $6,000+ like in the T206 world, that’s where it really pays to forge — very low risk, extremely high reward. Us signed T206 collectors were more or less inviting the criminals in.

Good analysis, but the incentive on a Goudey Ruth is massive, and 33 Goudey collectors have proven to be just as inviting.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by uniship

To take the chance to forge a signature like Ruth on a 3k to 10k card takes some huge confidence. I tend to think those sorts of cards are far less frequently forged than the cards that are less than $50.

Some Exhibit cards are 500 dollars but with a signature become 20k or more cards.....that is an issue. I still can't imagine that many high end HOF'er signing these cards back then but that is just me....

[mr2686]

This is only my opinion, but this really is only a blip compared to operation bullpen. I think the people that would be buying the signed T206's and other cards from that era will arm themselves with these new tools to find the unsigned versions of the cards in question and continue in to the marketplace at a slower, more deliberate pace. For me, this is just another nail in the coffin that has made my favorite hobby a bit less enjoyable, and when you add a lack of full time reputable dealers, sky rocking prices, newer players/hall of famers with eligible sigs, it makes me take a hard look at what I am (or want to be) collecting.

[WillowGrove]

Some great points in here. The two that I connected with are RunScott 'get educated on Parent et. al' before starting to collect and Lordstan - be a skeptic and make the autograph have to prove itself to you.

I've been collecting vintage baseball stuff for over 40 years but only got into signed cards 5 years ago when I saw a Mel Ott signed Goudey at the natty. I said to myself, in all my years of collecting I don't see many old cards with vintage signatures. So for the past five years I've been learning about and picking up signed vintage cards of HOFers.

It's been just about the last year that I thought I was seeing more signed cards than usual. I know in some thread, some of you felt that too. And specifically to me, I noticed more signed Mel Ott on Playballs. Now I may be totally wrong but they felt off to me.

I didn't bid on them.

The point I would like to make is to not be afraid to rely on your instincts. It's one of my favorite aspects of collecting. If you've done your research and something seems off to you, odds are you are right.

And when you come across signed cards from old collections where you trust (as much as one can) the provenance, that's a good time to buy.

I was lucky enough to get a few Goudey and Diamond Star cards direct from the Michigan batboy collection and from the Long Island collection at Phillip Weiss Auctions. I learned about the how the cards were acquired, trusted the sellers and was comfortable with the signatures, so I went for it. They did have COA's from the big TPAs but it was the provenance that gave me the real confidence.

So I say do your research, take in a lot of information and then trust your gut.

And man I can't wait to catch this guy.

-peter