Liquidity & Investing vs collecting

[the 'stache]

Sure it does. Gambling is defined by the act itself, not the possible financial implication of the outcome. Suggesting otherwise is reckless, in my humble opinion.

If a billionaire goes to the Luxor in Las Vegas, and puts down a $1 million chip on black at the roulette table, regardless of the outcome, or how he tolerates any potential loss, he's gambled. He may have risked a very small portion of his net worth, but he's gambled, nonetheless.

As I said before, I've got no problem with the guy doing whatever he wants with his money. To each their own. If he wants to rent a limo, and blow $100k on hookers at the Bunny Ranch, God Bless America! But that's not how he framed this whole discussion. He came here espousing an extremely risky investment strategy, and gently chided those who are going to, or have already "missed the move."

"Give me the liquidity, give me the commodities, give me the transparency."

First of all, in this hobby, I find there is a shocking lack of transparency. If there is any, at all, it is because hobbyists, like the fine folks here on Net 54, are fed up with the rampant criminality that has become all too commonplace. Unlike commodity trading, there is no inherent transparency within the hobby. There is no regulatory body in baseball cards; no oversight. One of the third party grading companies began its existence by facilitating a gross misrepresentation of a Wagner T206's quality. Major auction houses have been complicit in criminal behavior warranting FBI investigation, and federal prosecution (cough Mastro cough); and, you've got rampant shill bidding on Ebay. Oh yeah, and you've got a criminal mastermind somewhere in Mexico flaunting their ability to create high-value graded cards out of thin air. This is the environment in which I'm going to risk hundreds of thousands of dollars? Discretionary income, or not, to bank on the continued upward trend in pricing, which day and night is being responded to here with utter disbelief, is displaying questionable logic.

"Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results." Especially when the system is being gamed against the individual investor. Even the most principled auction houses, through no fault of their own, and even after employing the strictest guidelines, and independent transparency--they get caught in the muck. We've seen highly-visible persons on our own board, people who work their tails off to make this hobby as safe as is humanly possible, caught up in the middle of dealings with stolen goods. If a man with that level of hobby sophistication, with this incredible tool at his finger tips, can get blindsided, what chance does an honest investor truly have?

I may no longer be able to work, but when I became a broker, I vowed to be held to a higher level, ethically, in my business dealings. I had a fiduciary responsibility to my clients, and though I'm no longer actively associated with a broker-dealer, I still take that responsibility very seriously. I cannot sit idly bye while I see risky investment advice, even in the guise of a "friendly suggestion", being dolled out.

Originally Posted by LukeLyon

His second post was phrased nicer, but he is right either way. $300k (since we're using that number) is a lot of money to a lot of people on this board, but that doesn't mean that it can't represent a small and reasonable percentage of someone's net worth to be invested. High end sports cards have been a good investment in recent history. Calling it gambling just because the number is big doesn't make any sense.

[Joshwesley]

VERY well said and put!



QUOTE=the 'stache;1548152]Sure it does. Gambling is defined by the act itself, not the possible financial implication of the outcome. Suggesting otherwise is reckless, in my humble opinion.

If a billionaire goes to the Luxor in Las Vegas, and puts down a $1 million chip on black at the roulette table, regardless of the outcome, or how he tolerates any potential loss, he's gambled. He may have risked a very small portion of his net worth, but he's gambled, nonetheless.

As I said before, I've got no problem with the guy doing whatever he wants with his money. To each their own. If he wants to rent a limo, and blow $100k on hookers at the Bunny Ranch, God Bless America! But that's not how he framed this whole discussion. He came here espousing an extremely risky investment strategy, and gently chided those who are going to, or have already "missed the move."

"Give me the liquidity, give me the commodities, give me the transparency."

First of all, in this hobby, I find there is a shocking lack of transparency. If there is any, at all, it is because hobbyists, like the fine folks here on Net 54, are fed up with the rampant criminality that has become all too commonplace. Unlike commodity trading, there is no inherent transparency within the hobby. There is no regulatory body in baseball cards; no oversight. One of the third party grading companies began its existence by facilitating a gross misrepresentation of a Wagner T206's quality. Major auction houses have been complicit in criminal behavior warranting FBI investigation, and federal prosecution (cough Mastro cough); and, you've got rampant shill bidding on Ebay. Oh yeah, and you've got a criminal mastermind somewhere in Mexico flaunting their ability to create high-value graded cards out of thin air. This is the environment in which I'm going to risk hundreds of thousands of dollars? Discretionary income, or not, to bank on the continued upward trend in pricing, which day and night is being responded to here with utter disbelief, is displaying questionable logic.

"Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results." Especially when the system is being gamed against the individual investor. Even the most principled auction houses, through no fault of their own, and even after employing the strictest guidelines, and independent transparency--they get caught in the muck. We've seen highly-visible persons on our own board, people who work their tails off to make this hobby as safe as is humanly possible, caught up in the middle of dealings with stolen goods. If a man with that level of hobby sophistication, with this incredible tool at his finger tips, can get blindsided, what chance does an honest investor truly have?

I may no longer be able to work, but when I became a broker, I vowed to be held to a higher level, ethically, in my business dealings. I had a fiduciary responsibility to my clients, and though I'm no longer actively associated with a broker-dealer, I still take that responsibility very seriously. I cannot sit idly bye while I see risky investment advice, even in the guise of a "friendly suggestion", being dolled out.[/QUOTE]

[Luke]

Using roulette as an example is a logical fallacy. When you play roulette, you have a known loss rate. It's small and static (let's call it 3%). You can't compare that to investing in baseball cards, or stock, or real estate where the returns are unknown.

There is every reason to believe that a person can make money investing in baseball cards. Just look at recent returns. There are a lot of people that feel comfortable investing in that way. Any investment can lose value, and cards are no different.

People that are calling cards a gamble are just missing the point. Your investment portfolio should be diversified. If you have a diversified portfolio, I'm certain that you own some investment instruments that are far riskier than a PSA 9 Jordan rookie. They are just offset within that particular fund by other, less risky investments.

[sbfinley]

Originally Posted by kickitup

I don't post often, but I feel compelled to share some thoughts. Most of you will likely disagree, and that's ok too. I hope eventually you get it.

If I asked any of you the value of a barrel of oil, most of you would log on to Bloomberg or CNBC and check the ticker. Why? because it shows live transactions where buyers and sellers agree on a price. There is security in knowing where assets such as oil, wheat, sugar or now sports cards trade repeatedly. As more trades happen, more people get more comfortable with price and liquidity and feel it is safe to make a 'bet'.

In the basketball world, Jordan rookie cards are the ultimate commodity. Baseball you have mantle rookies, football... Try on a Namath rookie for size. What do you feel safer putting your money in??? A Jordan rookie at 30k or a PSA 9 1934 Gehrig that never trades that will cost you 10x the price because that's what a private broker says it's worth?

Tell me why a Jordan PSA 10 shouldn't be worth 30k? There are roughly 250 of them... That's five per state in the union. Are you honestly going to try to make an argument that there aren't more than 250 people that are able and willing to own a Jordan rookie at 30k to say they have one? They should probably be worth 100k+ each!

Give me the liquidity, give me the commodities, give me the transparency. If you want to collect, fine... Go buy a PSA 6 gold border common. If you want to invest, give me a PSA 8 Koufax all day long and twice on Sunday. Complain about prices changing all you want, but when you are done, you will miss the move... Or perhaps you already have.

Peace

I don't understand the point you're attempting to make here. At all.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by sbfinley

I don't understand the point your attempting to make here. At all.

I interpreted it to mean he thinks certain high end postwar and modern cards are good investments even at today's prices. And that those who are not buying into it (literally) will miss the boat.

[sbfinley]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I interpreted it to mean he thinks certain high end postwar and modern cards are good investments even at today's prices. And that those who are not buying into it (literally) will miss the boat.

Didn't get that at all, but okay. I learned something new today.

[packs]

Originally Posted by LukeLyon

His second post was phrased nicer, but he is right either way. $300k (since we're using that number) is a lot of money to a lot of people on this board, but that doesn't mean that it can't represent a small and reasonable percentage of someone's net worth to be invested. High end sports cards have been a good investment in recent history. Calling it gambling just because the number is big doesn't make any sense.

I think it's gambling when the poster is talking about using the cards in place of cash. That's what he said in his first post. Buy a card and use it as a commodity. I think that's gambling because you're assuming the market will allow for it. I also think it's gambling because at that price point (300K), you must have other holdings for you to be putting it into cards. If you lose it, that was your card money not your retirement fund. And if it is your retirement fund, I think that's nuts.

[Touch'EmAll]

Don't get it - to some degree he is just pointing out the subtleties of supply and demand in our hobby, er, investments. We have said before, demand out-trumps supply. And timing is also important. What the future holds? I would guess the Jordan RC and the 1934 Gehrig should both do just fine, but its just a guess - nobody has a crystal ball. Heck, what do I know, a couple of my stocks have not done that great - didn't guess right on those. Other stocks have done ok. My real estate has bounced back very nicely. Probably good to diversify a little.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by sbfinley

I don't understand the point your attempting to make here. At all.

I've read the opening post a few times thinking I was just missing something, given the thread has so many replies. Glad to know I'm not the only one who didn't understand the point.

[Luke]

Originally Posted by packs

I think it's gambling when the poster is talking about using the cards in place of cash. That's what he said in his first post. Buy a card and use it as a commodity. I think that's gambling because you're assuming the market will allow for it. I also think it's gambling because at that price point (300K), you must have other holdings for you to be putting it into cards. If you lose it, that was your card money not your retirement fund. And if it is your retirement fund, I think that's nuts.

You're getting caught up on the idea that $300k is all of his money. I know that's a very large number to most of us, but you need to allow for the possibility that it is just a small portion of the money he wants to invest in various things.

Of course putting all of your investment money into baseball cards would be crazy. Putting all your money into any one investment instrument (other than t-bills and the like) would be very risky. In that regard, putting $300k into PSA 9 and 10 Jordans is really no different than putting it all into Coca Cola stock, or a single house. But all 3 can legitimately be called investments.

Just because you can't fathom putting $300k into high grade cards doesn't mean it should be called gambling any more than stocks or real estate should be.

[Rookiemonster]

But what about muhamed Ali ? Lol jk


All cards can be traded so yes they commodities. Last year I traded some cards for Yankee tickets. When I was a kid I traded cards for a new Louisville slugger.
This is the same old thread phased in a different way for the thousandent time.
We don't know the future but we can make a lucky guess.

Last year I made my biggest baseball card purchase. It was a Willie mays rookie.
I did not buy it for the sole purpose of investing .it was a card I really wanted.

[ALR-bishop]

I had not realized what hard work it has become to collect baseball cards. As usual I am one step behind. I even thought I was enjoying it.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by ALR-bishop

I had not realized what hard work it has become to collect baseball cards. As usual I am one step behind. I even thought I was enjoying it.

Enjoying it? No, no, no. You're doing it all wrong.

[packs]

Originally Posted by LukeLyon

You're getting caught up on the idea that $300k is all of his money. I know that's a very large number to most of us, but you need to allow for the possibility that it is just a small portion of the money he wants to invest in various things.

Of course putting all of your investment money into baseball cards would be crazy. Putting all your money into any one investment instrument (other than t-bills and the like) would be very risky. In that regard, putting $300k into PSA 9 and 10 Jordans is really no different than putting it all into Coca Cola stock, or a single house. But all 3 can legitimately be called investments.

Just because you can't fathom putting $300k into high grade cards doesn't mean it should be called gambling any more than stocks or real estate should be.

This is my last post on this but you're missing my point. I can fathom someone spending 300K on a card. I'm not some pauper who thinks that's all the money in the world. And I don't understand the characterization. The price point is what I'm talking about. If you have that much to break off for cards, then you're a high roller and does it really matter if your card dividends pay out double or triple? I would say no. It would be nice if they did, but if they paid out the same amount you put in, or even slightly less than you put in, that's not making or breaking anything for you. That's because you're just having fun with your disposable money, like when you gamble. You aren't trying to build a future, you've already built a future if your card budget is 300K. I'm talking about the guy who sees a post about cards as commodities and invests their life savings into cards. That is what I'm saying would be insane. Not spending your card budget, whatever that may be, on the chance that you might make a little more money.

[ALR-bishop]

Not sure about you Packs, but I do not know most of the people on this board on a personal level. I just know them by their posts. I do not think I could accurately generalize about why or how people should collect. Each person must decide based on their own circumstance. One can be a just a buyer, just a seller, just a collector, just an investor, or any combination thereof. All I know for sure is my own situation, and I have enjoyed collecting cards since 1957.... and still do

[trdcrdkid]

Originally Posted by LukeLyon

Using roulette as an example is a logical fallacy. When you play roulette, you have a known loss rate. It's small and static (let's call it 3%). You can't compare that to investing in baseball cards, or stock, or real estate where the returns are unknown.

There is every reason to believe that a person can make money investing in baseball cards. Just look at recent returns. There are a lot of people that feel comfortable investing in that way. Any investment can lose value, and cards are no different.

People that are calling cards a gamble are just missing the point. Your investment portfolio should be diversified. If you have a diversified portfolio, I'm certain that you own some investment instruments that are far riskier than a PSA 9 Jordan rookie. They are just offset within that particular fund by other, less risky investments.

As someone who writes about investing for a living, and has done so for the last 18 years, I have to chime in here, even though I'm at work and don't have time to write a lot. Yes, sports cards can be seen/used as an investment. But Bill Gregory's point, which I agree with 100%, is that they are a very risky investment, given the high price volatility, the lack of regulatory oversight, and the documented fraud and other shady doings in the industry. Whether you want to call investing in sports cards "gambling" is a matter of how you define gambling; no, buying high-end cards is not like playing roulette, a pure game of chance with known odds, but it's a very risky strategy, akin to buying penny stocks or something similar.

Yes, of course it's possible to make money buying and selling high-end cards, especially when you do it in a rising market like we're in now. And it's not like playing roulette; knowing what you're doing is definitely helpful. But it's very possible to lose money investing in cards, especially if you pay top dollar for a hot card near the top of the market. I know Luke made this point in the post I've quoted above, and I'm not trying to pick on Luke, just putting all this in terms used for other investments.

Luke is also right that any investment portfolio should be diversified, and that if cards are part of your investment portfolio, they should be a relatively small part, just like any other risky investment. Putting all of your net worth into sports cards would be like putting all your money into internet stocks in 1999; some people who did that made money in the short term, but they eventually got burned big-time. I'm not saying that card prices are necessarily going to crash as badly as internet stocks did in 2000-2002; maybe high-end cards would be more comparable to blue-chip growth stocks in 1999, most of which were very overvalued in retrospect and suffered significant losses over the next few years. Some of them (e.g. Amazon) eventually gained all those losses back, and more, but some (e.g. Cisco) did not, and remain far below the peaks they reached in 1999-2000.

The question of whether cards (even graded cards) are really comparable to commodities is a whole other question that I don't have time to get into now. Maybe later.

[Luke]

Originally Posted by packs

This is my last post on this but you're missing my point. I can fathom someone spending 300K on a card. I'm not some pauper who thinks that's all the money in the world. And I don't understand the characterization. The price point is what I'm talking about. If you have that much to break off for cards, then you're a high roller and does it really matter if your card dividends pay out double or triple? I would say no. It would be nice if they did, but if they paid out the same amount you put in, or even slightly less than you put in, that's not making or breaking anything for you. That's because you're just having fun with your disposable money, like when you gamble. You aren't trying to build a future, you've already built a future if your card budget is 300K. I'm talking about the guy who sees a post about cards as commodities and invests their life savings into cards. That is what I'm saying would be insane. Not spending your card budget, whatever that may be, on the chance that you might make a little more money.

I'm with you on having these be the last posts. I definitely did not mean to characterize you as a "pauper" or anything of the sort. I just disagreed with your argument. It seems like you are saying that if someone has millions of dollars, you don't consider them investors anymore because they are already set for life. If the OP has $10mil, and wants to put $300k into baseball cards because he expects to grow his money, how is that not investing? Can Warren Buffet invest in anything, or when he buys up shares of a new company, is he simply gambling, since he really doesn't need the money?

It's just semantics, but I still think you are missing the point. I of course agree that no one should put all of their savings into baseball cards. They also shouldn't put it all into Coca Cola stock, but I bet you would call that an investment rather than a gamble.

[Luke]

I agree with everything you wrote Dave fwiw. I just disagreed with the comparison to roulette.

[trdcrdkid]

Originally Posted by LukeLyon

I agree with everything you wrote Dave fwiw. I just disagreed with the comparison to roulette.

Yeah, I know we're on the same page. I just quoted your post because it mentioned a lot of the issues being discussed.

[botn]

Originally Posted by trdcrdkid

As someone who writes about investing for a living, and has done so for the last 18 years, I have to chime in here, even though I'm at work and don't have time to write a lot. Yes, sports cards can be seen/used as an investment. But Bill Gregory's point, which I agree with 100%, is that they are a very risky investment, given the high price volatility, the lack of regulatory oversight, and the documented fraud and other shady doings in the industry.

I am not sure I would ever feel comfortable suggesting to someone to invest in sports cards but for those who understand the market overall, I would not call it high risk at all. Typically there is not high volatility in prices. It is a market which is easily to navigate and has a great deal of transparency. Sure the hobby has plenty of fraud but is that more or less than has been happening for decades on Wall St? The fact that Wall St is regulated has not protected the average investor.

Yes, of course it's possible to make money buying and selling high-end cards, especially when you do it in a rising market like we're in now. And it's not like playing roulette; knowing what you're doing is definitely helpful. But it's very possible to lose money investing in cards, especially if you pay top dollar for a hot card near the top of the market. I know Luke made this point in the post I've quoted above, and I'm not trying to pick on Luke, just putting all this in terms used for other investments.

People have been making a living off of cards in all markets, not just the rising ones. In fact I would suggest the rising market we are in now is far riskier than previous times in the hobby. I have a business/finance background and I know I feel far more comfortable putting my money into cards than I do investing in a publicly traded company where I am a complete outsider and have no insight as to the way the company is really being run and which market makers are gonna dump the stock or load up before earnings. By the time the average investor gets news that they need to move out of a position it is too late. I do not see that same issue happening with cards.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Re cards being so volatile, when was the last time the card market dropped 50 percent? When was the last time it dropped significantly at all?

[kickitup]

Packs,

I am sorry I hurt your feelings when I responded to your opinion of what you might believe I am doing should be characterized as. Hurting your feelings was not the intent. You are no better or no worse than me, period. The amount of money I have or don't have should not characterize what I do with it or how the impacts of what I choose to do affect my life.

Calling what I am doing gambling is ignorant. Why? Because you have no idea what my situation is, just like I have no idea what yours is.

Just because it's a lot to you doesn't mean it's a lot to me. That's ok too... You are likely a nice guy, a great friend, a great dad etc, but just because I might have more money than you doesn't make me a gambler and you a collector because of the dollar amount I choose to put into cards.

My whole point was here that I am trying to encourage you all to not get caught up in what things used to be worth, but instead what they are worth now and what they will be worth in the future. I get annoyed so often by people complaining about how dumb prices are and how much manipulation goes on. I make up that people blame it on manipulation that prices are going up, but my sense is these same people are stuck in the past.

Hypothetically speaking, If I am willing to buy one Lou Gehrig card for 300k and that has a population of 3, I can assure you I am also willing to buy the other two for the same price before I let one of them go for less. I am an investor and I will protect my investment accordingly. I don't make any move without being willing to protect my move. If I think a card is worth 300k and there are 3 of them, I need to be willing to invest 900k in that card to make that purchase. That's not gambling, that is smart and logical investing. If I end up buying all 3 for 900k, fine, but I sure am going to support the market to protect my investment. I can only do that if I buy within my means and go in with a plan.

I hardly call that gambling. I think it's smart. I don't need you to agree with me, but I don't appreciate it when anyone tries to characterize what I am willing to do gambling when the dollar amount is merely larger than an amount they might be comfortable spending.

I can tell you all this. I don't buy a 50k Namath rookie unless I am willing to buy 50 of them for that. I consider my investments before I make them. I encourage those who don't think this way to realize there are others like me out there that are willing to buy not only one card, but all of them for "X" price and control the market.

This is happening and it bugs me that no one else realizes it. I can't convince you all that this is right or wrong, but I'm telling you it's happening because I am doing it and will continue to do so.

[botn]

Originally Posted by kickitup

Packs,

I am sorry I hurt your feelings when I responded to your opinion of what you might believe I am doing should be characterized as. Hurting your feelings was not the intent. You are no better or no worse than me, period. The amount of money I have or don't have should not characterize what I do with it or how the impacts of what I choose to do affect my life.

Calling what I am doing gambling is ignorant. Why? Because you have no idea what my situation is, just like I have no idea what yours is.

Just because it's a lot to you doesn't mean it's a lot to me. That's ok too... You are likely a nice guy, a great friend, a great dad etc, but just because I might have more money than you doesn't make me a gambler and you a collector because of the dollar amount I choose to put into cards.

My whole point was here that I am trying to encourage you all to not get caught up in what things used to be worth, but instead what they are worth now and what they will be worth in the future. I get annoyed so often by people complaining about how dumb prices are and how much manipulation goes on. I make up that people blame it on manipulation that prices are going up, but my sense is these same people are stuck in the past.

Hypothetically speaking, If I am willing to buy one Lou Gehrig card for 300k and that has a population of 3, I can assure you I am also willing to buy the other two for the same price before I let one of them go for less. I am an investor and I will protect my investment accordingly. I don't make any move without being willing to protect my move. If I think a card is worth 300k and there are 3 of them, I need to be willing to invest 900k in that card to make that purchase. That's not gambling, that is smart and logical investing. If I end up buying all 3 for 900k, fine, but I sure am going to support the market to protect my investment. I can only do that if I buy within my means and go in with a plan.

I hardly call that gambling. I think it's smart. I don't need you to agree with me, but I don't appreciate it when anyone tries to characterize what I am willing to do gambling when the dollar amount is merely larger than an amount they might be comfortable spending.

I can tell you all this. I don't buy a 50k Namath rookie unless I am willing to buy 50 of them for that. I consider my investments before I make them. I encourage those who don't think this way to realize there are others like me out there that are willing to buy not only one card, but all of them for "X" price and control the market.

This is happening and it bugs me that no one else realizes it. I can't convince you all that this is right or wrong, but I'm telling you it's happening because I am doing it and will continue to do so.

Not sure I understand why it is necessary to own all or attempt to own all of a particular card in order to justify owning one? What you have described is more of market manipulation or positioning yourself so that you can manipulate the market. I know you will not agree.

[kickitup]

So if there is a pop1 PSA 10 Nolan Ryan rookie, am I manipulating and controlling the market becaus I own the best card and won't sell it? Just because I am willing to buy the best card at a certain time doesn't mean I am manipulating the market. It merely means I am willing to pay more than anyone else for it. And if someone wants to buy it from me, they will have to pay me what I think it's worth to sell it. That's not manipulation... That is free market capitalism and perfectly legal.

Go try to buy some pop1 tens from Ken Kendrick's dBACKS collection. Do you think he is just going to sell them because you want to buy them for $125? And are you going to accuse him of manipulation because he bought the best card and doesn't want to sell it for what you want to pay? And he is also willing to buy anymore that come available at the same price?

[botn]

Originally Posted by kickitup

So if there is a pop1 PSA 10 Nolan Ryan rookie, am I manipulating and controlling the market becaus I own the best card and won't sell it? Just because I am willing to buy the best card at a certain time doesn't mean I am manipulating the market. It merely means I am willing to pay more than anyone else for it. And if someone wants to buy it from me, they will have to pay me what I think it's worth to sell it. That's not manipulation... That is free market capitalism and perfectly legal.

Go try to buy some pop1 tens from Ken Kendrick's dBACKS collection. Do you think he is just going to sell them because you want to buy them for $125? And are you going to accuse him of manipulation because he bought the best card and doesn't want to sell it for what you want to pay? And he is also willing to buy anymore that come available at the same price?

I would offer at least $150 for Kendrick's pop 1 10s on the chance that one of them would actually grade again. Buying a 1 of 1 that happens to be the whole market for that card in the grade is not the same as what you have described as attempting to buy up every example of a particular card but someone as astute as you did not need me to explain that to you.

[Peter_Spaeth]

And your purpose in coming here and admitting you are trying to corner the market or whatever term you want to use is? I mean other than to proclaim the new world order, of course, I got that one.

[vintagetoppsguy]

I would like to see some scans of the OP's investments.

[thenextlevel]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Re cards being so volatile, when was the last time the card market dropped 50 percent? When was the last time it dropped significantly at all?

This would be immediately after the era of overproduction. Everybody in the late 80's and early 90's were buying cards to put away for retirement. People were paying ridiculous prices for OPC premiere, Stadium Club, Kevin Maas rookies, etc, etc. That crash cost a lot of people money. Now of course this wasn't across all areas of collecting, but nevertheless, the "card market" dropped big time. I understand that this was the overproduced crap, but the people who were dumping money into the hobby had no clue(maybe like the people now dumping money into the sportscard market and inflating prices), and the rug was pulled out from under them. It all comes down to choosing wisely. If you know a collectibles market, then you can use it as an investment vehicle and limit the downside.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by thenextlevel

This would be immediately after the era of overproduction. Everybody in the late 80's and early 90's were buying cards to put away for retirement. People were paying ridiculous prices for OPC premiere, Stadium Club, Kevin Maas rookies, etc, etc. That crash cost a lot of people money. Now of course this wasn't across all areas of collecting, but nevertheless, the "card market" dropped big time. I understand that this was the overproduced crap, but the people who were dumping money into the hobby had no clue(maybe like the people now dumping money into the sportscard market and inflating prices), and the rug was pulled out from under them. It all comes down to choosing wisely. If you know a collectibles market, then you can use it as an investment vehicle and limit the downside.

Yeah I remember that stuff and superpremium cards and all that but other than some individual cards like Canseco tanking and maybe wax prices of the really overproduced crap I don't remember a major drop. But if that's the last time it's been quite a while, no?

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

I would like to see some scans of the OP's investments.

I'm guessing you never will.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

I'm guessing you never will.

He posted his T206 Cobbs not too long ago and most of y'all were oohing and aahing at the flips.

[botn]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He posted his T206 Cobbs not too long ago and most of y'all were oohing and aahing at the flips.

I was oohing and ahhing for another reason.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Indeed.

[thenextlevel]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Yeah I remember that stuff and superpremium cards and all that but other than some individual cards like Canseco tanking and maybe wax prices of the really overproduced crap I don't remember a major drop. But if that's the last time it's been quite a while, no?

Yes, but there was another drop in the mid 2000's of game used and auto cards. Once again due to overproduction(jersey cards and autos are a dime a dozen now). I remember people paying stupid prices for game used jersey cards now worth peanuts.

[benchod]

Originally Posted by kickitup

Packs,

I am sorry I hurt your feelings when I responded to your opinion of what you might believe I am doing should be characterized as. Hurting your feelings was not the intent. You are no better or no worse than me, period. The amount of money I have or don't have should not characterize what I do with it or how the impacts of what I choose to do affect my life.

Calling what I am doing gambling is ignorant. Why? Because you have no idea what my situation is, just like I have no idea what yours is.

Just because it's a lot to you doesn't mean it's a lot to me. That's ok too... You are likely a nice guy, a great friend, a great dad etc, but just because I might have more money than you doesn't make me a gambler and you a collector because of the dollar amount I choose to put into cards.

My whole point was here that I am trying to encourage you all to not get caught up in what things used to be worth, but instead what they are worth now and what they will be worth in the future. I get annoyed so often by people complaining about how dumb prices are and how much manipulation goes on. I make up that people blame it on manipulation that prices are going up, but my sense is these same people are stuck in the past.

Hypothetically speaking, If I am willing to buy one Lou Gehrig card for 300k and that has a population of 3, I can assure you I am also willing to buy the other two for the same price before I let one of them go for less. I am an investor and I will protect my investment accordingly. I don't make any move without being willing to protect my move. If I think a card is worth 300k and there are 3 of them, I need to be willing to invest 900k in that card to make that purchase. That's not gambling, that is smart and logical investing. If I end up buying all 3 for 900k, fine, but I sure am going to support the market to protect my investment. I can only do that if I buy within my means and go in with a plan.

I hardly call that gambling. I think it's smart. I don't need you to agree with me, but I don't appreciate it when anyone tries to characterize what I am willing to do gambling when the dollar amount is merely larger than an amount they might be comfortable spending.

I can tell you all this. I don't buy a 50k Namath rookie unless I am willing to buy 50 of them for that. I consider my investments before I make them. I encourage those who don't think this way to realize there are others like me out there that are willing to buy not only one card, but all of them for "X" price and control the market.
This is happening and it bugs me that no one else realizes it. I can't convince you all that this is right or wrong, but I'm telling you it's happening because I am doing it and will continue to do so.

Well, your original premise is built on shaky grounds. There is a large difference between graded cards as a commodity vs oil, precious metals, hogs etc. When you buy a pound of gold or a barrel of oil you know what you are receiving. Would a barrel of oil sell for $50 if it half water? What if your gold bullion was mixed with nickel? With cards you're assuming that the flip accurately reflects the card and that a PSA 10 is superior to a 9 etc. What if the 10 was in a 9 holder and was resubmitted 20 times to get into a 10 holder? Is it now magically a superior card? 19/20 times it was judged to be a 9. Trimmed and doctored cards are another major factor. You brought up Kendricks collection. His centerpiece card is the prime example of problems with relying exclusively on a grading company's opinion.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Craig stop thinking like a collector or normal human being. The flip is now its own reality. None of that matters to the commodity trader.

[sbfinley]

The only thing I've taken from this thread is that he doesn't like people who complain that the market is manipulated because it isn't. But in the next paragraph he stated he would manipulate the market to protect an investment.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by sbfinley

The only thing I've taken from this thread is that he doesn't like people who complain that the market is manipulated because it isn't. But in the next paragraph he stated he would manipulate the market to protect an investment.

Correction he said he IS doing it.

I can tell you all this. I don't buy a 50k Namath rookie unless I am willing to buy 50 of them for that. I consider my investments before I make them. I encourage those who don't think this way to realize there are others like me out there that are willing to buy not only one card, but all of them for "X" price and control the market.
This is happening and it bugs me that no one else realizes it. I can't convince you all that this is right or wrong, but I'm telling you it's happening because I am doing it and will continue to do so.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by sbfinley

The only thing I've taken from this thread is that he doesn't like people who complain that the market is manipulated because it isn't. But in the next paragraph he stated he would manipulate the market to protect an investment.

He's got the market cornered on tiny border cobbs. It's like ...."hey, where did those borders go?"

[Beastmode]

Originally Posted by sbfinley

The only thing I've taken from this thread is that he doesn't like people who complain that the market is manipulated because it isn't. But in the next paragraph he stated he would manipulate the market to protect an investment.

Justin "I can definitely see the benefit in retractions to discover max bids" Cornett is back. The same guy that had 18 retractions in 6 months?

Your theory that high fees prevent shilling at AH's is laughable. You must be from Texas?

If you can use all your little tricks to pump up prices, more power to you. We all win when you win.

[Baseball Bob]

All this talk reminds me of 1999. Anyone remember when the "new economy" Internet stocks were going to replace boring old blue chip stocks? When the market was rising exponentially, and tech stock P/Es were in the 50-100 range? Well, any card made post 1975 is a "new economy" product. The price is rising due principally due to speculation, greed and irrationality, rather than value based on economic fundamentals. The supply of Jordan rookies is nearly unlimited - how many dozens or even hundreds more will be found in dresser drawers, attics and safe deposit boxes in the next ten years? Tons. How many Gehrigs? Very, very few.
Folks, does'nt anyone recall what happened to the NASDAQ in 2002? That's where Jordan rookies are headed. The crash is coming. Oversupply craters a market. Period. Liquidity ends when the speculators run for the exits. They will, and they own the market, just like on Wall Street. They don't get screwed. It's the exuberant little guys who bite the big one.
Just a cheery thought on a Wednesday evening!

[SAllen2556]

My limited understanding of economics suggests that if one person were to buy 50 Namath Rookies and thus greatly reduce supply, then the price would indeed increase, but with the increased price, demand would also decrease. If demand decreases, then the price decreases. If I can't get a Namath rookie at a price I can afford, don't I just eventually move on to Joe Montana?

Also, if supply decreases, production usually increases. So wouldn't more people who wouldn't have previously sold their Namath card now put it in the market, thus increasing supply again and causing prices to decrease. I seem to remember something about price equilibrium.

I have a headache.

[midwaylandscaping]

Put on the boots before strolling through this thread

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by kickitup

I can tell you all this. I don't buy a 50k Namath rookie unless I am willing to buy 50 of them for that. .

OK, but how many PSA 6 Home Run Bakers will it take to protect your $6K investment?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

OK, but how many PSA 6 Home Run Bakers will it take to protect your $6K investment?

I think he should try to find the borders missing on the cobbs he showed. They are somewhere because they didn't get mfg that way.

[MikeGarcia]

Originally Posted by Leon

I think he should try to find the borders missing on the cobbs he showed. They are somewhere because they didn't get mfg that way.

....borders ?? WE DOAN NEED NO STEENKEENG BORDERS !


...MikeGarcia

..

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by Leon

I think he should try to find the borders missing on the cobbs he showed. They are somewhere because they didn't get mfg that way.

LOL! I saw those Cobbs, I just didn't want say anything. But since you said it, Leon, I agree.

[Leon]

I just looked at the borders again and they don't seem as small, relative to the other borders, as I had thought. That being said the green cobb looks a bit short and the red one is out of focus. But admittedly on some scans I just got sent, the borders don't look as small as I remembered them. I think when buying very high grade pre-war we have to be very careful.

[kickitup]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

OK, but how many PSA 6 Home Run Bakers will it take to protect your $6K investment?

u got me on that one... and i admitted it.

doh!

touche

[itslarry]

Man everyone is talking about this, not always from the same vantage point tho. Id be kind of scared with all the shills and fakes. To eaxh their own tho
http://http://www.blowoutcards.com/f...a-10s-now.html