Liquidity & Investing vs collecting

[Luke]

I agree with everything you wrote Dave fwiw. I just disagreed with the comparison to roulette.

[trdcrdkid]

Originally Posted by LukeLyon

I agree with everything you wrote Dave fwiw. I just disagreed with the comparison to roulette.

Yeah, I know we're on the same page. I just quoted your post because it mentioned a lot of the issues being discussed.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Re cards being so volatile, when was the last time the card market dropped 50 percent? When was the last time it dropped significantly at all?

[kickitup]

Packs,

I am sorry I hurt your feelings when I responded to your opinion of what you might believe I am doing should be characterized as. Hurting your feelings was not the intent. You are no better or no worse than me, period. The amount of money I have or don't have should not characterize what I do with it or how the impacts of what I choose to do affect my life.

Calling what I am doing gambling is ignorant. Why? Because you have no idea what my situation is, just like I have no idea what yours is.

Just because it's a lot to you doesn't mean it's a lot to me. That's ok too... You are likely a nice guy, a great friend, a great dad etc, but just because I might have more money than you doesn't make me a gambler and you a collector because of the dollar amount I choose to put into cards.

My whole point was here that I am trying to encourage you all to not get caught up in what things used to be worth, but instead what they are worth now and what they will be worth in the future. I get annoyed so often by people complaining about how dumb prices are and how much manipulation goes on. I make up that people blame it on manipulation that prices are going up, but my sense is these same people are stuck in the past.

Hypothetically speaking, If I am willing to buy one Lou Gehrig card for 300k and that has a population of 3, I can assure you I am also willing to buy the other two for the same price before I let one of them go for less. I am an investor and I will protect my investment accordingly. I don't make any move without being willing to protect my move. If I think a card is worth 300k and there are 3 of them, I need to be willing to invest 900k in that card to make that purchase. That's not gambling, that is smart and logical investing. If I end up buying all 3 for 900k, fine, but I sure am going to support the market to protect my investment. I can only do that if I buy within my means and go in with a plan.

I hardly call that gambling. I think it's smart. I don't need you to agree with me, but I don't appreciate it when anyone tries to characterize what I am willing to do gambling when the dollar amount is merely larger than an amount they might be comfortable spending.

I can tell you all this. I don't buy a 50k Namath rookie unless I am willing to buy 50 of them for that. I consider my investments before I make them. I encourage those who don't think this way to realize there are others like me out there that are willing to buy not only one card, but all of them for "X" price and control the market.

This is happening and it bugs me that no one else realizes it. I can't convince you all that this is right or wrong, but I'm telling you it's happening because I am doing it and will continue to do so.

[botn]

Originally Posted by kickitup

Packs,

I am sorry I hurt your feelings when I responded to your opinion of what you might believe I am doing should be characterized as. Hurting your feelings was not the intent. You are no better or no worse than me, period. The amount of money I have or don't have should not characterize what I do with it or how the impacts of what I choose to do affect my life.

Calling what I am doing gambling is ignorant. Why? Because you have no idea what my situation is, just like I have no idea what yours is.

Just because it's a lot to you doesn't mean it's a lot to me. That's ok too... You are likely a nice guy, a great friend, a great dad etc, but just because I might have more money than you doesn't make me a gambler and you a collector because of the dollar amount I choose to put into cards.

My whole point was here that I am trying to encourage you all to not get caught up in what things used to be worth, but instead what they are worth now and what they will be worth in the future. I get annoyed so often by people complaining about how dumb prices are and how much manipulation goes on. I make up that people blame it on manipulation that prices are going up, but my sense is these same people are stuck in the past.

Hypothetically speaking, If I am willing to buy one Lou Gehrig card for 300k and that has a population of 3, I can assure you I am also willing to buy the other two for the same price before I let one of them go for less. I am an investor and I will protect my investment accordingly. I don't make any move without being willing to protect my move. If I think a card is worth 300k and there are 3 of them, I need to be willing to invest 900k in that card to make that purchase. That's not gambling, that is smart and logical investing. If I end up buying all 3 for 900k, fine, but I sure am going to support the market to protect my investment. I can only do that if I buy within my means and go in with a plan.

I hardly call that gambling. I think it's smart. I don't need you to agree with me, but I don't appreciate it when anyone tries to characterize what I am willing to do gambling when the dollar amount is merely larger than an amount they might be comfortable spending.

I can tell you all this. I don't buy a 50k Namath rookie unless I am willing to buy 50 of them for that. I consider my investments before I make them. I encourage those who don't think this way to realize there are others like me out there that are willing to buy not only one card, but all of them for "X" price and control the market.

This is happening and it bugs me that no one else realizes it. I can't convince you all that this is right or wrong, but I'm telling you it's happening because I am doing it and will continue to do so.

Not sure I understand why it is necessary to own all or attempt to own all of a particular card in order to justify owning one? What you have described is more of market manipulation or positioning yourself so that you can manipulate the market. I know you will not agree.

[kickitup]

So if there is a pop1 PSA 10 Nolan Ryan rookie, am I manipulating and controlling the market becaus I own the best card and won't sell it? Just because I am willing to buy the best card at a certain time doesn't mean I am manipulating the market. It merely means I am willing to pay more than anyone else for it. And if someone wants to buy it from me, they will have to pay me what I think it's worth to sell it. That's not manipulation... That is free market capitalism and perfectly legal.

Go try to buy some pop1 tens from Ken Kendrick's dBACKS collection. Do you think he is just going to sell them because you want to buy them for $125? And are you going to accuse him of manipulation because he bought the best card and doesn't want to sell it for what you want to pay? And he is also willing to buy anymore that come available at the same price?

[botn]

Originally Posted by kickitup

So if there is a pop1 PSA 10 Nolan Ryan rookie, am I manipulating and controlling the market becaus I own the best card and won't sell it? Just because I am willing to buy the best card at a certain time doesn't mean I am manipulating the market. It merely means I am willing to pay more than anyone else for it. And if someone wants to buy it from me, they will have to pay me what I think it's worth to sell it. That's not manipulation... That is free market capitalism and perfectly legal.

Go try to buy some pop1 tens from Ken Kendrick's dBACKS collection. Do you think he is just going to sell them because you want to buy them for $125? And are you going to accuse him of manipulation because he bought the best card and doesn't want to sell it for what you want to pay? And he is also willing to buy anymore that come available at the same price?

I would offer at least $150 for Kendrick's pop 1 10s on the chance that one of them would actually grade again. Buying a 1 of 1 that happens to be the whole market for that card in the grade is not the same as what you have described as attempting to buy up every example of a particular card but someone as astute as you did not need me to explain that to you.

[benchod]

Originally Posted by kickitup

Packs,

I am sorry I hurt your feelings when I responded to your opinion of what you might believe I am doing should be characterized as. Hurting your feelings was not the intent. You are no better or no worse than me, period. The amount of money I have or don't have should not characterize what I do with it or how the impacts of what I choose to do affect my life.

Calling what I am doing gambling is ignorant. Why? Because you have no idea what my situation is, just like I have no idea what yours is.

Just because it's a lot to you doesn't mean it's a lot to me. That's ok too... You are likely a nice guy, a great friend, a great dad etc, but just because I might have more money than you doesn't make me a gambler and you a collector because of the dollar amount I choose to put into cards.

My whole point was here that I am trying to encourage you all to not get caught up in what things used to be worth, but instead what they are worth now and what they will be worth in the future. I get annoyed so often by people complaining about how dumb prices are and how much manipulation goes on. I make up that people blame it on manipulation that prices are going up, but my sense is these same people are stuck in the past.

Hypothetically speaking, If I am willing to buy one Lou Gehrig card for 300k and that has a population of 3, I can assure you I am also willing to buy the other two for the same price before I let one of them go for less. I am an investor and I will protect my investment accordingly. I don't make any move without being willing to protect my move. If I think a card is worth 300k and there are 3 of them, I need to be willing to invest 900k in that card to make that purchase. That's not gambling, that is smart and logical investing. If I end up buying all 3 for 900k, fine, but I sure am going to support the market to protect my investment. I can only do that if I buy within my means and go in with a plan.

I hardly call that gambling. I think it's smart. I don't need you to agree with me, but I don't appreciate it when anyone tries to characterize what I am willing to do gambling when the dollar amount is merely larger than an amount they might be comfortable spending.

I can tell you all this. I don't buy a 50k Namath rookie unless I am willing to buy 50 of them for that. I consider my investments before I make them. I encourage those who don't think this way to realize there are others like me out there that are willing to buy not only one card, but all of them for "X" price and control the market.
This is happening and it bugs me that no one else realizes it. I can't convince you all that this is right or wrong, but I'm telling you it's happening because I am doing it and will continue to do so.

Well, your original premise is built on shaky grounds. There is a large difference between graded cards as a commodity vs oil, precious metals, hogs etc. When you buy a pound of gold or a barrel of oil you know what you are receiving. Would a barrel of oil sell for $50 if it half water? What if your gold bullion was mixed with nickel? With cards you're assuming that the flip accurately reflects the card and that a PSA 10 is superior to a 9 etc. What if the 10 was in a 9 holder and was resubmitted 20 times to get into a 10 holder? Is it now magically a superior card? 19/20 times it was judged to be a 9. Trimmed and doctored cards are another major factor. You brought up Kendricks collection. His centerpiece card is the prime example of problems with relying exclusively on a grading company's opinion.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Craig stop thinking like a collector or normal human being. The flip is now its own reality. None of that matters to the commodity trader.

[sbfinley]

The only thing I've taken from this thread is that he doesn't like people who complain that the market is manipulated because it isn't. But in the next paragraph he stated he would manipulate the market to protect an investment.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The flip is now its own reality.

Whoa, that's a very deep thought...

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by kickitup

I can tell you all this. I don't buy a 50k Namath rookie unless I am willing to buy 50 of them for that. .

OK, but how many PSA 6 Home Run Bakers will it take to protect your $6K investment?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

OK, but how many PSA 6 Home Run Bakers will it take to protect your $6K investment?

I think he should try to find the borders missing on the cobbs he showed. They are somewhere because they didn't get mfg that way.

[MikeGarcia]

Originally Posted by Leon

I think he should try to find the borders missing on the cobbs he showed. They are somewhere because they didn't get mfg that way.

....borders ?? WE DOAN NEED NO STEENKEENG BORDERS !


...MikeGarcia

..

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by Leon

I think he should try to find the borders missing on the cobbs he showed. They are somewhere because they didn't get mfg that way.

LOL! I saw those Cobbs, I just didn't want say anything. But since you said it, Leon, I agree.

[the 'stache]

Somewhere, Jimmy Hoffa, Elvis, Jim Morrison and the Cobb T206 borders are sitting on a beach, drinking mai tais...

Originally Posted by Leon

I think he should try to find the borders missing on the cobbs he showed. They are somewhere because they didn't get mfg that way.

[kickitup]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

OK, but how many PSA 6 Home Run Bakers will it take to protect your $6K investment?

u got me on that one... and i admitted it.

doh!

touche

[itslarry]

Man everyone is talking about this, not always from the same vantage point tho. Id be kind of scared with all the shills and fakes. To eaxh their own tho
http://http://www.blowoutcards.com/f...a-10s-now.html

[ezez420]

You have got a big set of balls posting this.

Originally Posted by kickitup

Packs,

I am sorry I hurt your feelings when I responded to your opinion of what you might believe I am doing should be characterized as. Hurting your feelings was not the intent. You are no better or no worse than me, period. The amount of money I have or don't have should not characterize what I do with it or how the impacts of what I choose to do affect my life.

Calling what I am doing gambling is ignorant. Why? Because you have no idea what my situation is, just like I have no idea what yours is.

Just because it's a lot to you doesn't mean it's a lot to me. That's ok too... You are likely a nice guy, a great friend, a great dad etc, but just because I might have more money than you doesn't make me a gambler and you a collector because of the dollar amount I choose to put into cards.

My whole point was here that I am trying to encourage you all to not get caught up in what things used to be worth, but instead what they are worth now and what they will be worth in the future. I get annoyed so often by people complaining about how dumb prices are and how much manipulation goes on. I make up that people blame it on manipulation that prices are going up, but my sense is these same people are stuck in the past.

Hypothetically speaking, If I am willing to buy one Lou Gehrig card for 300k and that has a population of 3, I can assure you I am also willing to buy the other two for the same price before I let one of them go for less. I am an investor and I will protect my investment accordingly. I don't make any move without being willing to protect my move. If I think a card is worth 300k and there are 3 of them, I need to be willing to invest 900k in that card to make that purchase. That's not gambling, that is smart and logical investing. If I end up buying all 3 for 900k, fine, but I sure am going to support the market to protect my investment. I can only do that if I buy within my means and go in with a plan.

I hardly call that gambling. I think it's smart. I don't need you to agree with me, but I don't appreciate it when anyone tries to characterize what I am willing to do gambling when the dollar amount is merely larger than an amount they might be comfortable spending.

I can tell you all this. I don't buy a 50k Namath rookie unless I am willing to buy 50 of them for that. I consider my investments before I make them. I encourage those who don't think this way to realize there are others like me out there that are willing to buy not only one card, but all of them for "X" price and control the market.

This is happening and it bugs me that no one else realizes it. I can't convince you all that this is right or wrong, but I'm telling you it's happening because I am doing it and will continue to do so.

[botn]

Not that you care but if you broke out your Cobbs I doubt any of the 4 would grade again.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by botn

Not that you care but if you broke out your Cobbs I doubt any of the 4 would grade again.

What about this one? It's a PSA 8 too. Would it grade again if cracked out?

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by botn

Not that you care but if you broke out your Cobbs I doubt any of the 4 would grade again.

It all depends on who submits them.

[4815162342]

Originally Posted by botn

Not that you care but if you broke out your Cobbs I doubt any of the 4 would grade again.

I think the Red Cobb would.

The others...

[thenextlevel]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Re cards being so volatile, when was the last time the card market dropped 50 percent? When was the last time it dropped significantly at all?

This would be immediately after the era of overproduction. Everybody in the late 80's and early 90's were buying cards to put away for retirement. People were paying ridiculous prices for OPC premiere, Stadium Club, Kevin Maas rookies, etc, etc. That crash cost a lot of people money. Now of course this wasn't across all areas of collecting, but nevertheless, the "card market" dropped big time. I understand that this was the overproduced crap, but the people who were dumping money into the hobby had no clue(maybe like the people now dumping money into the sportscard market and inflating prices), and the rug was pulled out from under them. It all comes down to choosing wisely. If you know a collectibles market, then you can use it as an investment vehicle and limit the downside.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by thenextlevel

This would be immediately after the era of overproduction. Everybody in the late 80's and early 90's were buying cards to put away for retirement. People were paying ridiculous prices for OPC premiere, Stadium Club, Kevin Maas rookies, etc, etc. That crash cost a lot of people money. Now of course this wasn't across all areas of collecting, but nevertheless, the "card market" dropped big time. I understand that this was the overproduced crap, but the people who were dumping money into the hobby had no clue(maybe like the people now dumping money into the sportscard market and inflating prices), and the rug was pulled out from under them. It all comes down to choosing wisely. If you know a collectibles market, then you can use it as an investment vehicle and limit the downside.

Yeah I remember that stuff and superpremium cards and all that but other than some individual cards like Canseco tanking and maybe wax prices of the really overproduced crap I don't remember a major drop. But if that's the last time it's been quite a while, no?

[thenextlevel]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Yeah I remember that stuff and superpremium cards and all that but other than some individual cards like Canseco tanking and maybe wax prices of the really overproduced crap I don't remember a major drop. But if that's the last time it's been quite a while, no?

Yes, but there was another drop in the mid 2000's of game used and auto cards. Once again due to overproduction(jersey cards and autos are a dime a dozen now). I remember people paying stupid prices for game used jersey cards now worth peanuts.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by thenextlevel

This would be immediately after the era of overproduction. Everybody in the late 80's and early 90's were buying cards to put away for retirement. People were paying ridiculous prices for OPC premiere, Stadium Club, Kevin Maas rookies, etc, etc. That crash cost a lot of people money. Now of course this wasn't across all areas of collecting, but nevertheless, the "card market" dropped big time. I understand that this was the overproduced crap, but the people who were dumping money into the hobby had no clue(maybe like the people now dumping money into the sportscard market and inflating prices), and the rug was pulled out from under them. It all comes down to choosing wisely. If you know a collectibles market, then you can use it as an investment vehicle and limit the downside.

This is exactly right. Collectors thought 1990 Leaf Frank Thomas rookies, 1989 Ken Griffey Jr. Upper Deck rookies and the like would only keep going up, up and away (like the Fifth Dimension, in their beautiful, beautiful balloon). Many dollars were being put into huge lots of these cards, but a liquid market for those lots never developed. The impact of huge production set in, and much of the market, mostly new cards, but with an overflow effect even on '50's and '60's cards, tanked. By recollection, the '52 Topps Mantle dropped in NrMt grade from $30,000 or so to around $15K by 1995. I don't think this market is like that one, because much of the $$$ is going into truly desirable, proven cards which are at least condition rarities, and seldom seen in high grade (note based on my previous posts above that I do not include the '86 Fleer Jordan in gem mint "10" in that group because it is so prevalent in only slightly lesser grades).

Regards,

Larry

[Joshwesley]

90 frank Thomas leaf is a sore subject with me...

When I finally scraped up enough to get that card at 10 years old... I assumed it would be my key to early retirement...

Still have that exact card upstairs in a guest bedroom.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Joshwesley

90 frank Thomas leaf is a sore subject with me...

When I finally scraped up enough to get that card at 10 years old... I assumed it would be my key to early retirement...

Still have that exact card upstairs in a guest bedroom.

Josh, I remember a local dealer in the Detroit Metropolitan area who was planning to retire on Ken Griffey Jr. cards in the '90's, AND HE WAS ABSOLUTELY SERIOUS!

Even more than $$$ appreciation, may your collecting bring you joy,

Larry

[BeanTown]

Originally Posted by Joshwesley

90 frank Thomas leaf is a sore subject with me...

When I finally scraped up enough to get that card at 10 years old... I assumed it would be my key to early retirement...

Still have that exact card upstairs in a guest bedroom.

Sometimes just buying the right card of the player is what separates investor from collector. I like all the players mentioned in this thread, however with newer players just look at the production runs of Leaf, Topps, Upper Deck, etc... And then look at 20 times more rarer minor league card runs of the same player. I'll take the Thomas Cape Cod, Charlotte Os Ripken, Platinum Best Griffey, Remar Oaks Martin, and DiMaggio Zeenuts any day over their first MLB mass produced cards.