Liquidity & Investing vs collecting

[thenextlevel]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Re cards being so volatile, when was the last time the card market dropped 50 percent? When was the last time it dropped significantly at all?

This would be immediately after the era of overproduction. Everybody in the late 80's and early 90's were buying cards to put away for retirement. People were paying ridiculous prices for OPC premiere, Stadium Club, Kevin Maas rookies, etc, etc. That crash cost a lot of people money. Now of course this wasn't across all areas of collecting, but nevertheless, the "card market" dropped big time. I understand that this was the overproduced crap, but the people who were dumping money into the hobby had no clue(maybe like the people now dumping money into the sportscard market and inflating prices), and the rug was pulled out from under them. It all comes down to choosing wisely. If you know a collectibles market, then you can use it as an investment vehicle and limit the downside.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by thenextlevel

This would be immediately after the era of overproduction. Everybody in the late 80's and early 90's were buying cards to put away for retirement. People were paying ridiculous prices for OPC premiere, Stadium Club, Kevin Maas rookies, etc, etc. That crash cost a lot of people money. Now of course this wasn't across all areas of collecting, but nevertheless, the "card market" dropped big time. I understand that this was the overproduced crap, but the people who were dumping money into the hobby had no clue(maybe like the people now dumping money into the sportscard market and inflating prices), and the rug was pulled out from under them. It all comes down to choosing wisely. If you know a collectibles market, then you can use it as an investment vehicle and limit the downside.

Yeah I remember that stuff and superpremium cards and all that but other than some individual cards like Canseco tanking and maybe wax prices of the really overproduced crap I don't remember a major drop. But if that's the last time it's been quite a while, no?

[thenextlevel]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Yeah I remember that stuff and superpremium cards and all that but other than some individual cards like Canseco tanking and maybe wax prices of the really overproduced crap I don't remember a major drop. But if that's the last time it's been quite a while, no?

Yes, but there was another drop in the mid 2000's of game used and auto cards. Once again due to overproduction(jersey cards and autos are a dime a dozen now). I remember people paying stupid prices for game used jersey cards now worth peanuts.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by thenextlevel

This would be immediately after the era of overproduction. Everybody in the late 80's and early 90's were buying cards to put away for retirement. People were paying ridiculous prices for OPC premiere, Stadium Club, Kevin Maas rookies, etc, etc. That crash cost a lot of people money. Now of course this wasn't across all areas of collecting, but nevertheless, the "card market" dropped big time. I understand that this was the overproduced crap, but the people who were dumping money into the hobby had no clue(maybe like the people now dumping money into the sportscard market and inflating prices), and the rug was pulled out from under them. It all comes down to choosing wisely. If you know a collectibles market, then you can use it as an investment vehicle and limit the downside.

This is exactly right. Collectors thought 1990 Leaf Frank Thomas rookies, 1989 Ken Griffey Jr. Upper Deck rookies and the like would only keep going up, up and away (like the Fifth Dimension, in their beautiful, beautiful balloon). Many dollars were being put into huge lots of these cards, but a liquid market for those lots never developed. The impact of huge production set in, and much of the market, mostly new cards, but with an overflow effect even on '50's and '60's cards, tanked. By recollection, the '52 Topps Mantle dropped in NrMt grade from $30,000 or so to around $15K by 1995. I don't think this market is like that one, because much of the $$$ is going into truly desirable, proven cards which are at least condition rarities, and seldom seen in high grade (note based on my previous posts above that I do not include the '86 Fleer Jordan in gem mint "10" in that group because it is so prevalent in only slightly lesser grades).

Regards,

Larry

[Joshwesley]

90 frank Thomas leaf is a sore subject with me...

When I finally scraped up enough to get that card at 10 years old... I assumed it would be my key to early retirement...

Still have that exact card upstairs in a guest bedroom.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Joshwesley

90 frank Thomas leaf is a sore subject with me...

When I finally scraped up enough to get that card at 10 years old... I assumed it would be my key to early retirement...

Still have that exact card upstairs in a guest bedroom.

Josh, I remember a local dealer in the Detroit Metropolitan area who was planning to retire on Ken Griffey Jr. cards in the '90's, AND HE WAS ABSOLUTELY SERIOUS!

Even more than $$$ appreciation, may your collecting bring you joy,

Larry

[drcy]

I think long term investing in "high grade" graded cards of plentiful issues is foolish for a variety of reasons, not the least being the large number altered cards in holders with hard grades. If you were aware of the high percentage of altered cards graded, and the margin of error and other silliness involved in grading, why would you invest your money in that? I'd put my money in undervalued, quality, rare issues.

[BeanTown]

Originally Posted by Joshwesley

90 frank Thomas leaf is a sore subject with me...

When I finally scraped up enough to get that card at 10 years old... I assumed it would be my key to early retirement...

Still have that exact card upstairs in a guest bedroom.

Sometimes just buying the right card of the player is what separates investor from collector. I like all the players mentioned in this thread, however with newer players just look at the production runs of Leaf, Topps, Upper Deck, etc... And then look at 20 times more rarer minor league card runs of the same player. I'll take the Thomas Cape Cod, Charlotte Os Ripken, Platinum Best Griffey, Remar Oaks Martin, and DiMaggio Zeenuts any day over their first MLB mass produced cards.

[Peter_Spaeth]

The late 80s early 90s Topps and Bowman Tiffany sets were very limited in production relative to the mass market stuff, to me they are better than minor league cards in almost every instance.

[ALR-bishop]

Topps Gallery Of Champions ( originally Immortals ), 1984 to 1991...in silver, bronze and aluminum sets of 12, plus some bonus pewter "cards"

[Peter_Spaeth]

Reminds me of Highland Mint, Al.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by BeanTown

Sometimes just buying the right card of the player is what separates investor from collector. I like all the players mentioned in this thread, however with newer players just look at the production runs of Leaf, Topps, Upper Deck, etc... And then look at 20 times more rarer minor league card runs of the same player. I'll take the Thomas Cape Cod, Charlotte Os Ripken, Platinum Best Griffey, Remar Oaks Martin, and DiMaggio Zeenuts any day over their first MLB mass produced cards.

I went through my minor league card collecting phase in the mid to late '90's--they do offer, or at least appear to offer, far greater scarcity than mainstream cards of the same era. But they come with what was then a well-known caveat: a number of them have been reprinted in subsequent years when their value rose, including one of Mattingly's minor league cards, and the Modesto McGwire. Caveat emptor!

Regards,

Larry

PS: I also have and have always liked that particular Frank Thomas card!

[BeanTown]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

I went through my minor league card collecting phase in the mid to late '90's--they do offer, or at least appear to offer, far greater scarcity than mainstream cards of the same era. But they come with what was then a well-known caveat: a number of them have been reprinted in subsequent years when their value rose, including one of Mattingly's minor league cards, and the Modesto McGwire. Caveat emptor!

Regards,

Larry

PS: I also have and have always liked that particular Frank Thomas card!

Any card can be reprinted but I do understand what you are saying Larry. Like anything, you must do your homework. There are many minor league issues that have the serial number on the card or the sealed set like the Jeter Little Sun. For someone to actually want to do a reprint of a minor league card should be a sign that it's worth some money and the demand is there. Even if a minor league card got reprinted (which is rare IMO) then how close does it come to population numbers of the MLB RC of that player???

The Modesto As Big Mac card was a perfect example too! I have a dozen of uncut sheets of that issue I bought at the National, back when the Dead Sea was only sick! But I'll still take Alomar Witchita Rocks, Pawtucket Clemons, Pittsfield Maddux, and West Palm Vladimir cards all day long as I'd. Be shocked if anyone reprinted them along with the original printer.

[Peter_Spaeth]

It's not just the reprinting prospect, it's that very few people relatively speaking WANT a minor league card, or consider it on the same level as a major league rookie. That said here is my killer Gwynn LOL.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by BeanTown

Any card can be reprinted but I do understand what you are saying Larry. Like anything, you must do your homework. There are many minor league issues that have the serial number on the card or the sealed set like the Jeter Little Sun. For someone to actually want to do a reprint of a minor league card should be a sign that it's worth some money and the demand is there. Even if a minor league card got reprinted (which is rare IMO) then how close does it come to population numbers of the MLB RC of that player???

The Modesto As Big Mac card was a perfect example too! I have a dozen of uncut sheets of that issue I bought at the National, back when the Dead Sea was only sick! But I'll still take Alomar Witchita Rocks, Pawtucket Clemons, Pittsfield Maddux, and West Palm Vladimir cards all day long as I'd. Be shocked if anyone reprinted them along with the original printer.

With all due respect, I think you misunderstood my post, which was likely my fault. By "reprinted," I meant "reissued," i.e., a second or even series of subsequent printings BY THE ORIGINAL ISSUER FROM THE ORIGINAL PLATE! THESE ARE INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM THE SO-CALLED ORIGINALS, AND CONSEQUENTLY, RATHER THAN A FINITE SUPPLY OF THE CARDS, THERE IS A POTENTIALLY INFINITE AMOUNT THAT MAY BE MADE AVAILABLE WHENEVER THE CARD'S VALUE WARRANTS THE EXPENSE. I am most decidedly NOT talking about taking a photograph of an original card, and making a plate from that in order to produce reprints! A reissue, i.e., more run off from the original plate, will demonstrate the proper, linear dot pattern of any other "original," whereas a "reprint" made through the latter process yields a random dot pattern. The latter can be readily distinguished from the "originals" through magnification, whereas the former cannot, unless different card stock is mistakenly used.

And in practicality, it is certainly NOT true that any card can be "reprinted" in this fashion. IMHO, it is a virtual certainty that the vast majority of original plates from which "original" vintage cards (read "pre-war") can be made have long since ceased to exist. More modern card manufacturers, such as Topps, cannot run the risk of making more "original" cards from their original printing plates because doing so would bring about a total loss of credibility in the marketplace and thus their ruination, even should original plates from the '50's or '60's continue to exist (personally, I doubt that they do, but one never knows for sure).

With minor league cards, however, the printing of such cards was often a one or two-time thing, and there is no effective policing whatsoever with regard to printing more from the original plates when the original issuer determines that added revenue may well be worth it, which is precisely what occurred with both the Mattingly and Modesto McGwire. At the risk of redundancy, THE SUPPLY OF MANY SUCH CARDS DEPENDS ONLY UPON THE CHARACTER OF THE ORIGINAL ISSUER, AND IS POTENTIALLY UNLIMITED! Which is why I concluded with "caveat emptor." It is risky in the extreme to buy into any collectible market under such circumstances.

Best of luck to you in your collecting,

Larry

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by BeanTown

Sometimes just buying the right card of the player is what separates investor from collector. I like all the players mentioned in this thread, however with newer players just look at the production runs of Leaf, Topps, Upper Deck, etc... And then look at 20 times more rarer minor league card runs of the same player. I'll take the Thomas Cape Cod, Charlotte Os Ripken, Platinum Best Griffey, Remar Oaks Martin, and DiMaggio Zeenuts any day over their first MLB mass produced cards.

This is a put-on, right? I mean the Thomas and Griffey cards aren't even first cards and can be had readily. Unless you purchased them when new (in which case you are a speculator not an investor) or got lucky, they aren't exactly showing massive growth. The Platinum Griffey in a 10 sells for less today than it did in 2015. If you'd put the same $5K into a PSA 7 1954 Aaron you'd have doubled it.

[BeanTown]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

This is a put-on, right? I mean the Thomas and Griffey cards aren't even first cards and can be had readily. Unless you purchased them when new (in which case you are a speculator not an investor) or got lucky, they aren't exactly showing massive growth. The Platinum Griffey in a 10 sells for less today than it did in 2015. If you'd put the same $5K into a PSA 7 1954 Aaron you'd have doubled it.

I think most every purchase we do is in speculation that it will go up in value. We hope for the best, and prepare for the worse. Spreading the wealth makes the most sense. Heck, I have many Craig Jeffries, Sammy Sosa, and Rafael Palmero minor league cards which are now lost in the basement. In the flip side I have lots of Jeters and Ripkens which more than cover my entire budget spent on Minor league.

If I was to just into the postwar arena then I would load up on Clemente, Mantle, Maris, Banks, Mays, Rose, Paige, Robinson, etc... And follow the same strategy of hope for the best and prepare for the worst knowing that if one or two cards hit then it pays for everything else...

Now, me personally... I try to not buy things when they are hot. Example, is if a couple deep pocket collectors were buying Old Judges, then I'll settle for Gypsy Queens.