Rankings of the rarest T206 Cards (NOT BACKS!)

[Runscott]

Again, look at the numbers for the supposedly 'easier' versions of the variations. Both the PSA pop reports and the numbers available on ebay will surprise you. I've posted the PSA pop numbers for some of them before and there wasn't any ensuing discussion, so I'll refrain, but if you really believe that what's available on ebay really reflects actual population, you'll be surprised by those numbers as well.

A few ebay line scores:

Elberfeld portrait is currently 3-1 in favor of Washington. Lundgren is 10-6, Kansas City leads Chicago. Dahlen - Boston 5-4 over Brooklyn. Kleinow Boston leads New York 8-5.

[E93]

There are definitely fewer Wagners than Planks. I don't think there is any question. I think ballpark rough estimates would put Wagner at 60 give or take a few, and Plank at roughly 100. Magie is probably in the 150-200 range.

One cannot make accurate estimates based on the number of examples at one particular show. It makes much more sense to see how many have been publicly offered over a ten year period or longer. After all, didn't REA have four Planks in one auction last year (or the year before?).
JimB

[danmckee]

I think the Plank and Wagner numbers are closer than you think. Remember, when a Wagner lands into an advanced collection, it stays usually. The Planks are traded more often due to value. I figure Wagner 60 - 70 examples and Plank 80 - 90 examples. You can't really judge by how many have come to market. Several Wagners were acquired years ago in the 1970s by advanced collectors and are still in those collections.

How can O'Hara and Demmit be tougher than the Magie error as the list shows??

[travrosty]

I remember many years ago the number of wagners was put at about 25-30, now it's double that, I wonder how many more are out there that are undiscovered, or in private hands that haven't been revealed yet?

Unless someone opens up a shoe box and 300 Wagner's spill out, a few more being discoverred every decade won't really affect the value since demand far outstrips supply and not more than one is really offered at any one time with several months passing before the next offering.

With Goodwin and REA having Wagner's for auction, smoke 'em if you got 'em.

[E93]

Originally Posted by danmckee

I think the Plank and Wagner numbers are closer than you think. Remember, when a Wagner lands into an advanced collection, it stays usually. The Planks are traded more often due to value. I figure Wagner 60 - 70 examples and Plank 80 - 90 examples. You can't really judge by how many have come to market. Several Wagners were acquired years ago in the 1970s by advanced collectors and are still in those collections.

Good point. Individual Wagner examples probably remain in their respective collections much longer.
JimB

[g_vezina_c55]

Originally Posted by E93

Good point. Individual Wagner examples probably remain in their respective collections much longer.
JimB

X 3

Many of these Plank or Wagner disapear for 10 or 15 years in private collection... when you spend a lot of money on a card, it is normaly for flip it quick, normaly it is for stay in collection.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by danmckee

I think the Plank and Wagner numbers are closer than you think. Remember, when a Wagner lands into an advanced collection, it stays usually. The Planks are traded more often due to value. I figure Wagner 60 - 70 examples and Plank 80 - 90 examples. You can't really judge by how many have come to market. Several Wagners were acquired years ago in the 1970s by advanced collectors and are still in those collections.

How can O'Hara and Demmit be tougher than the Magie error as the list shows??

+1, esp. the 1970s thing.

Edited to add: I'd definitely advance the Evers batting blue sky version as one of the tougher HOFers. Took me a while to find one. I got the others pretty easily. So how would everyone rank the HOFers [excluding the Wagner-Plank-Cobb/Cobb] for scarcity? I'd be curious how everyone's experience finding them compares to mine.

[sreader3]

The 2006 list that Paul cites above was based on a blend of my 2004-2006 eBay survey data and the PSA pop report--the latter weighted prior to blending to compensate for the fact that higher-priced cards are (or at least as of 2006 were) submitted to PSA more often.

I have since come to believe that Magie is more difficult than Demmitt (St. L) and O'Hara (St.L). And although he does not make the Top 50, I seem to recall that Evers (Blue Sky) was the most difficult HOFer, save for Wagner and Plank [and of course Cobb (Cobb Back) if he is deemed a separate subject].

[ebrehm]

For me the toughest to find in EX or better were Evers Cubs shirt and Kelley. Also Tinker portrait wasn't so easy.

[FrankWakefield]

Hey Eric, and Scot...

I think that Evers with "Cubs" across the front is a series 150 card. My experience is that the 150 series only cards are more likely to be found with a bit more wear on them than other series of cards. I think the 150 only cards suffered more wear in the hands of kid collectors. I perceive that a card acquired in 1909 may well have been stacked with other cards, carried in pockets, shuffled from time to time, spread out on a bench... and that might have gone on for 3 or 4 years. Cards acquired in 1910 were added to the bunch, as were cards acquired in 1911. But by 1911 the cards might only get packed around one last year. So the cards of later series got worn less, generally. And I believe that the gold border cards would have been amongst the white border cards, all in a bunch, wadded down into a kid's pocket.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by sreader3

The 2006 list that Paul cites above was based on a blend of my 2004-2006 eBay survey data and the PSA pop report--the latter weighted prior to blending to compensate for the fact that higher-priced cards are (or at least as of 2006 were) submitted to PSA more often.

How heavily? Also, were the variation 'twins' weighted as well? In some cases I'm seeing equal numbers of both in the PSA pop reports, which is kind of curious.

[pgellis]

I would love to see a list of the toughest "commons". If you look at the list in the beginning of this thread, you see variation cards/short prints (O'hara, Lundgren, Demmitt, etc.) and Southern Leaguers.

So, if we excluded variation/short print cards, southern leaguers & Hall of Famers, I would love to see a list of what people have found as the toughest "common".

My list would include the following (but not limited to):

• Red Ames, Hands At Chest
  Bob Ganley
  Charlie Hemphill
  Ed Karger
  Otto Kruger
  Harry Lumley
  Fred Tenney

Thoughts?

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by Runscott

How heavily? Also, were the variation 'twins' weighted as well? In some cases I'm seeing equal numbers of both in the PSA pop reports, which is kind of curious.

Scott, still wondering about your thoughts on this.