Rankings of the rarest T206 Cards (NOT BACKS!)
 

I really enjoy the posts regarding the Demmitt and O'Hara cards, and was shocked that it is estimated that there may only been about 300-500 known examples of these two cards. I am curious what you experts would say are the top 10 "rarest" cards in The Monster. This list is NOT back specific; that is a seperate beast.

I think I know the top five rarest T206s, but would love to see what you would list to round out the top 10. My list, starting with the rarest:

1. Doyle Error
2. Wagner
3. Plank
4. Magie
5. Demmitt/O'Hara
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

I would tend to say the tough variations come next..

Dahlen Brooklyn
Elberfeld Washington Port
Lundgren Chicago
Brown Washington

Then I'd say the 2 toughest SLer's...Shag and Foster

Then maybe
Smith Chicago and Boston
Kleinow Catching Boston
Evers Cubs on shirt


Jamie

Jamie, if you check out the PSA pop reports on the 'other half' of the variations, I think you would be surprised (e.g.: Lundgren KC, Dahlen Boston, etc.)

The 150 series card of Ed Reulbach needs to be jammed in there above Evers and below Klienow, I think.

As far as I'm concerned, the most definitive research on this topic was accomplished by Scot Reader in his book, "Inside T206". You can read it here:

http://www.oldcardboard.com/t/t206/I...al-edition.pdf

Unfortunately, it seems his "Difficulty Rankings" from earlier editions is no longer in print. Not sure if that's because his data on this front changed. But here is where he listed the difficulty in the top 50 in 2006. (The first number after the names is the ranking, the second number is irrelevant for these purposes.)

Cobb (Ty Cobb Back) 1 1
J. Doyle (N.Y. Nat.l) 2 2
Wagner (Pittsburg) 3 3
Plank 4 4
O.Hara (St. Louis) 5 5
Demmitt (St. Louis) 6 6
Magie 7 7
Elberfeld (Wash. Port.) 8 1
Lundgren (Chicago) 9 1
Smith (Chicago & Boston) 10 1
Persons 11 1
Cranston 12 2
Foster 13 3
Mullaney 14 4
Revelle 15 5
Hart (Little Rock) 16 6
Manion 17
Ellam 18 8
Smith (Shreveport) 19 1
Ryan 20 9
Lafitte 21 10
Howard (Savannah) 22 11
Shaughnessy 23 12
Smith (Atlanta) 24 13
Fritz 25 14
Molesworth 26 15
Coles 27 16
Paige 28 17
Bay 29 18
Reagan 30 19
Dahlen (Brooklyn) 31 2
Kiernan 32 20
Stark 33 2
Lipe 34 21
Otey 35 22
Breitenstein 36 23
Jordan (Atlanta) 37 24
Hickman 38 25
J. Doyle (N.Y.) 39 3
Lentz 40 26
Perdue 41 27
Brown (Washington) 42 4
Bastian 43 3
Thronton 44 28
Bernhard 45 29
Violat 46 30
Guiheen 47 31
Helm 48 32
Greminger 49 33
Hooker 50

Info...
 

So from the list the SLer's dominate the Top 50 list. With that being said, I can pick up anywhere from 2-5 of any of these players on ebay right now. I even noticed there are 4 Kid Elberfeld Portraits on ebay as well. I am not too sure scarcity matters with respect to T206's outside that top 6-7 cards.

Under the big assumption that money is no object, you could probably pick up a 520 set today a card at a time. That does not, imo, make it less interesting or impressive to complete a set, it is just the residue of the internet. There are a lot of BIN prices that indicate those cards are still in someone's collection.

I'm surprised that so far nobody has listed Ganley or Tenney. Both, especially Ganley, were a little difficult for me.

SLers can be troublesome at times, especially if you're looking for good examples of the Old Mill back (Piedmonts seem to be everywhere). And of course the Hindu versions, especially in good condition, are the most difficult of the SLers. I didn't see the backs being a considering factor in the aforementioned list.

As someone who's nearly completed the monster, I must say most of the cards listed are easily found on eBay or Net54, sans the big 4. Perhaps it was more difficult putting together the monster pre-Internet, but I've found it relatively easy. Ridiculous BIN prices, finding extra cash and dealing with a nagging wife has been my biggest hurdles. ;)

For what it's worth, these are the few left on my list. Some such as Schmidt, Jones and Bridwell I have seen a dozen times but just haven't had the right condition/fair price combo come up. Others such as Paige and (recently acquired) Sid Smith have been hard to come by. Some "commons" such as Rucker Portrait don't seem to com up as much.

53. Al Bridwell (Portrait No Cap)

206. Gordon Hickman

234. Tom Jones (St Louis)

261. James Lafitte 

295. Rube Marquard (Follow Through)
355bv. Bill O'Hara (St. Louis) 

367. George Paige

418. Boss Schmidt (Throwing)

511. Cy Young (Cleveland) (Bare Hand)

I thought there were more wagners than planks? Wouldn't that put Plank and possibly Magie above Wagner in actuall card scarcity??

humm i dont think so,

i think there were more magie than plank and wagner... but according to me arround same number of Plank and Wagner.

I think there may well be fewer Planks than Wagners based on the number you see out there and the number in auctions...i remember seeing three Wagners at the last Baltimore National, but I don't remember seeing a single Plank. Then again the Wagners just may appear more plentiful because it is such a sexy card and the may churn more.

I have pics of 4 wagners at the Balt national and that's where I seen the 2 planks. The one missing ink and then a normal. I have pics somewhere. May search and post them later. I have always wanted a plank. Just a bad ass card IMO

Would like to see this post but pertaining rarity in high grades, say higher than a psa 6/ sgc 80.....

hey please post pic if you can of these cards you had see in the balt national.

Hope 1 day to travel to the national in baltimore and see a Wagner in person.... i never saw this card in real....

Again, look at the numbers for the supposedly 'easier' versions of the variations. Both the PSA pop reports and the numbers available on ebay will surprise you. I've posted the PSA pop numbers for some of them before and there wasn't any ensuing discussion, so I'll refrain, but if you really believe that what's available on ebay really reflects actual population, you'll be surprised by those numbers as well.

A few ebay line scores:

Elberfeld portrait is currently 3-1 in favor of Washington. Lundgren is 10-6, Kansas City leads Chicago. Dahlen - Boston 5-4 over Brooklyn. Kleinow Boston leads New York 8-5.

There are definitely fewer Wagners than Planks. I don't think there is any question. I think ballpark rough estimates would put Wagner at 60 give or take a few, and Plank at roughly 100. Magie is probably in the 150-200 range.

One cannot make accurate estimates based on the number of examples at one particular show. It makes much more sense to see how many have been publicly offered over a ten year period or longer. After all, didn't REA have four Planks in one auction last year (or the year before?).
JimB

I think the Plank and Wagner numbers are closer than you think. Remember, when a Wagner lands into an advanced collection, it stays usually. The Planks are traded more often due to value. I figure Wagner 60 - 70 examples and Plank 80 - 90 examples. You can't really judge by how many have come to market. Several Wagners were acquired years ago in the 1970s by advanced collectors and are still in those collections.

How can O'Hara and Demmit be tougher than the Magie error as the list shows??

I remember many years ago the number of wagners was put at about 25-30, now it's double that, I wonder how many more are out there that are undiscovered, or in private hands that haven't been revealed yet?

Unless someone opens up a shoe box and 300 Wagner's spill out, a few more being discoverred every decade won't really affect the value since demand far outstrips supply and not more than one is really offered at any one time with several months passing before the next offering.

With Goodwin and REA having Wagner's for auction, smoke 'em if you got 'em.

Good point. Individual Wagner examples probably remain in their respective collections much longer.
JimB

X 3

Many of these Plank or Wagner disapear for 10 or 15 years in private collection... when you spend a lot of money on a card, it is normaly for flip it quick, normaly it is for stay in collection.

+1, esp. the 1970s thing.

Edited to add: I'd definitely advance the Evers batting blue sky version as one of the tougher HOFers. Took me a while to find one. I got the others pretty easily. So how would everyone rank the HOFers [excluding the Wagner-Plank-Cobb/Cobb] for scarcity? I'd be curious how everyone's experience finding them compares to mine.

The 2006 list that Paul cites above was based on a blend of my 2004-2006 eBay survey data and the PSA pop report--the latter weighted prior to blending to compensate for the fact that higher-priced cards are (or at least as of 2006 were) submitted to PSA more often.

I have since come to believe that Magie is more difficult than Demmitt (St. L) and O'Hara (St.L). And although he does not make the Top 50, I seem to recall that Evers (Blue Sky) was the most difficult HOFer, save for Wagner and Plank [and of course Cobb (Cobb Back) if he is deemed a separate subject].

toughest T206 HOFers
 

For me the toughest to find in EX or better were Evers Cubs shirt and Kelley. Also Tinker portrait wasn't so easy.

Hey Eric, and Scot...

I think that Evers with "Cubs" across the front is a series 150 card. My experience is that the 150 series only cards are more likely to be found with a bit more wear on them than other series of cards. I think the 150 only cards suffered more wear in the hands of kid collectors. I perceive that a card acquired in 1909 may well have been stacked with other cards, carried in pockets, shuffled from time to time, spread out on a bench... and that might have gone on for 3 or 4 years. Cards acquired in 1910 were added to the bunch, as were cards acquired in 1911. But by 1911 the cards might only get packed around one last year. So the cards of later series got worn less, generally. And I believe that the gold border cards would have been amongst the white border cards, all in a bunch, wadded down into a kid's pocket.

frank
 

great theory frank:D

How heavily? Also, were the variation 'twins' weighted as well? In some cases I'm seeing equal numbers of both in the PSA pop reports, which is kind of curious.

I would love to see a list of the toughest "commons". If you look at the list in the beginning of this thread, you see variation cards/short prints (O'hara, Lundgren, Demmitt, etc.) and Southern Leaguers.

So, if we excluded variation/short print cards, southern leaguers & Hall of Famers, I would love to see a list of what people have found as the toughest "common".

My list would include the following (but not limited to):

• Red Ames, Hands At Chest
  Bob Ganley
  Charlie Hemphill
  Ed Karger
  Otto Kruger
  Harry Lumley
  Fred Tenney

Thoughts?

Phil - I agree with your post and with some of your list since it echoed my earlier post about Ganley and Tenney.

Not scientific, but...
 

I've sold 1850 T206s. On average, I should have sold each card in the set 3.5 times. From your list above, here are my occurrences of sales:
Ames (HAC) - 1
Ganley - 3
Hemphill -3
Karger - 4
Kruger - 4
Lumley - 3
Tenney - 0

Actually, I just received my first Tenney this month in 7+ years of buying/selling/collecting T206s.

Any other 1's or 0's?

Interesting. While Tenney is not easy, I've had plenty of them - two raw ones this year alone. The problem was always finding a nice one.

Scott, still wondering about your thoughts on this.

Results based on card fronts only
 

I went on a 2 month long search and purchase of the following:

Group #1:

Ames (HAC) - 3 Piedmont 150 ebay, 1 Sweet Cap 150 other; Total 4 avg $25
Ganley - 3 (2 Piedmont 150, 1 Sweet Cap 150) ebay; Total 3 avg $35
Tenney - 1 Piedmont 350 ebay, 2 other Piedmont 350; Total 3 avg $44

All three of these subjects seemed to lack a selection of mid grade cards. There were beaters and then a few examples of higher grades for each. In my very short research period I would conclude that Ganley is the toughest to find in high grade with Tenney coming in second and Ames last.

Group #2:

Foster - 1 Old Mill other $100
Hooker - 1 Piedmont 350 ebay $45

I passed on many others of each card. Foster was definitely more difficult than Hooker by a ratio of 3 to 1 and not easily attainable for under $100.

Group #3:

Dahlen Brooklyn - 1 board member pending sale Sweet Cap 350
Elberfeld Washington - 1 Piedmont 350 b/s/t $260
Brown Washington - 0
Lundgren Chicago - 1 Piedmont 150 friend $125

I could have bought several examples of each subject without any issue but it would have been costly to do so. I did buy one Brown/Chicago variation for $90 w/ a Sweet Cap 150 back.

This was a sampling of some of the tougher common player cards to find(based on fronts only) but I think I'll expand it to another grouping in June which I've already selected. My conclusion for the first grouping is that they were all attainable without much effort. Low grades in group #1 and #2 were very affordable while the higher grades demanded higher than average prices for common players. Group $3 had higher than average prices for low grades. If there's any interest in this then I'll post my next round of results.

*disclaimer - for the sake of this original post, I am not seeking any front/back combinations specifically even though the back has almost everything to do with the cards rarity/scarcity.

Tenney.........
 

Reading this thread made me appreciate my Tenney that much more........

Yeah, that's a nice card. I like the theory that 150 only subjects are more difficult to find in higher grades. Tenney is found with 350 backs as frequently as 150 but does seem to be a tougher card to find in high grade. There are some nice examples out there but you'll pay for them.

These posts generate an interest that has an immediate impact on the market and generates a wave of activity so we may see more of these become available at higher prices.

Very nice Tenny. I agree he is one of the tougher cards to find in good shape.

http://photos.imageevent.com/piojohn...ebsize/001.jpg

Frank smith (chi. & boston) has got to be up there, especially in high grade. There is not one graded higher than a psa 7 of any backs! There are not many cards in the set that don't have at least one graded psa 8.....Heinie Zimmerman and Hooks Wiltse (cap) are also extremely tough in high grade.