So...auction house endings....

barrysloate · #1 05-04-2009, 02:37 PM

Matt- anything that would compel someone to bid earlier is worth considering.

Keep in mind that in an auction such as REA, it's not the clock that keeps bidders from bidding but the amount of the lot. I was speaking to the winner of the 1933 George C. Miller set and he said that he thought he had won the lot at 3:00 AM as there had not been any bidding for a few hours. Then at 3:00 AM a very serious bidder jumped in and all the real action took place.

Why? What was gained by waiting that long? The same outcome could have been resolved at 8:00 PM, 10:00 PM, or at any time really. The bottom line is bidding ceased because the lot hit its max. Maybe bidders hope that at 3:00 AM their competition is asleep; but if that is the case, then the auction is all about who can stay up the latest. And even Rob writes somewhere in his rules that that is not what he wants. Again, the system needs some fine tuning.

Wesley · #2 05-04-2009, 02:43 PM

Bids were coming in very rapidly right before REA closed the auction. That was a little before 3:00 AM EST. My guess is if Rob left it open for another hour, there still would have been tens of thousands of dollars worth of bids placed after 3:00 AM.

Matt · #3 05-04-2009, 02:45 PM

Barry - what do you think of Tim's idea above - basically having a 15 minute (or whatever time limit) rule on the bidder, instead of on each lot. So, as a bidder, if you're not high on any lot for more then 15 minutes, then the auction is over for you; maybe start this at 10 PM. That way you can't just wait until 3 AM to bid.

barrysloate · #4 05-04-2009, 02:58 PM

I'm trying to think about all the nuances of that plan but on first look I think it is an excellent one. The reason I like it is it forces a bidder to start bidding. Any system that allows a bidder to wait ten hours before he logs on is flawed.

Abravefan11 · #5 05-04-2009, 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barrysloate

I'm trying to think about all the nuances of that plan but on first look I think it is an excellent one. The reason I like it is it forces a bidder to start bidding. Any system that allows a bidder to wait ten hours before he logs on is flawed.

Barry-

That's exactly the angle I've been looking at. There has to be pressure put on the participants to participate or the whole thing grinds along.

At the same time having a definitive cut off doesn't help the early action either.

So there has to be a system that encourages action and exhaust the potential bidders until only one is standing. Much like a live auction.

What can be the on line equivalent of "Going once...going twice" It's not the fifteen minute rule as we know it now.

Matt · #6 05-04-2009, 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barrysloate

I'm trying to think about all the nuances of that plan but on first look I think it is an excellent one. The reason I like it is it forces a bidder to start bidding. Any system that allows a bidder to wait ten hours before he logs on is flawed.

Exactly - It effectively forces every bidder to place a potentially winning bid on at least one lot at a reasonable time. That should certainly help. The hole in this plan is when does the auction end - if I'm chasing multiple lots, I could be high on one all night and wait until 4 AM to place a bid on several others; but I'm working on an idea that should solve that issue.

barrysloate · #7 05-04-2009, 03:45 PM

Note that lots such as the T206 Wagner and the N172 lot of 592 never received a bid after 4:00 PM Saturday. In fact the Old Judges ended days before the close. The reason: it reached its maximum, it had nothing to do with a clock. So any system that speeds up the bidding process will have absolutely no negative effect on the final bid. It will get to where it belongs whether it is faster or slower.

Matt · #8 05-04-2009, 03:58 PM

OK - after discussing with Tim in the chat - I think we've come up with something, which, dare I say, might solve all the issues raised in this thread regarding auction ending times. Please post here if you see a hole in the plan.
These times are all arbitrary - use a different number if it makes more sense to you:

1) As it does now, Extended Bidding begins at 4 PM and you may only bid after this point on lots you've bid on prior to this point.

2) At 10 PM, the auction ends (soft-ending).

3) After 10 PM, anyone outbid on any lot, will get a personal 20 minute window of Extended Bidding (and normal Extended Bidding rules apply - bid on anything you have a qualifier on) from the time they are outbid. Anyone outbid on a lot from 9:40-10 PM will have a 20 minute window starting at 10 PM.

4) The auction ends (hard-ending) when the last bidder with a 20 minute window open decides not to place a high bid on any lot.

Why this works (I think):
This has the advantage of a hard ending, like eBay, in that everyone will be compelled to place their high bids before 10 PM. No one can lay low waiting until 3 AM to bid, because there is no assurance they will be outbid on something and get a 20 minute window to bid at 3 AM.
Yet, there is no issue with sniping since anyone outbid at 9:58 will have until 10:20 to counter that bid, so no one can say they didn't have an opportunity to respond when outbid.

In essence, you're keeping the auction open to allow two things - someone responding to being outbid on a lot they were just high bid on and allowing someone to move their money to other lots when they get outbid on one, while at the same time compelling everyone to get their high bids in early.

OK, thoughts?

calvindog · #9 05-04-2009, 04:19 PM

Matt, unless you're on the board of directors of REA, Inc., I'm not sure your idea is anything more than fantasy. If I were Rob as long as I was only doing one auction a year I'd leave things as is. If it ain't broke, i.e., bids are at their highest, why fix it? Because a bunch of bidders complain about having to stay up late?

Matt · #10 05-04-2009, 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calvindog

Matt, unless you're on the board of directors of REA, Inc., I'm not sure your idea is anything more than fantasy. If I were Rob as long as I was only doing one auction a year I'd leave things as is. If it ain't broke, i.e., bids are at their highest, why fix it? Because a bunch of bidders complain about having to stay up late?

Jeff - I hear ya - part of this was just puzzle solving and I think we came up with something that is the optimal solution to the issues. However, you and I both saw that REA was getting bids right up until it closed and they probably did leave money on the table with their current system, so it's not purely a theoretical issue. Actually, some of the people who went to bed before 4 AM might have shifted money to different lots if they knew they were going to be outbid, so that's more money left on the table.

sox1903wschamp · #11 05-04-2009, 04:57 PM

From Matts post:

3) After 10 PM, anyone outbid on any lot, will get a personal 20 minute window of Extended Bidding (and normal Extended Bidding rules apply - bid on anything you have a qualifier on) from the time they are outbid. Anyone outbid on a lot from 9:40-10 PM will have a 20 minute window starting at 10 PM.

4) The auction ends (hard-ending) when the last bidder with a 20 minute window open decides not to place a high bid on any lot.

Can you answer one question, if no bids for 20 minutes on a lot after 10pm, this lot closes? If this is the case, what is the difference between this and the current system used by Legendary/Mastro and H&S outside of a 30 minute window?

Matt · #12 05-04-2009, 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sox1903wschamp

From Matts post:

3) After 10 PM, anyone outbid on any lot, will get a personal 20 minute window of Extended Bidding (and normal Extended Bidding rules apply - bid on anything you have a qualifier on) from the time they are outbid. Anyone outbid on a lot from 9:40-10 PM will have a 20 minute window starting at 10 PM.

4) The auction ends (hard-ending) when the last bidder with a 20 minute window open decides not to place a high bid on any lot.

Can you answer one question, if no bids for 20 minutes on a lot after 10pm, this lot closes? If this is the case, what is the difference between this and the current system used by Legendary/Mastro and H&S outside of a 30 minute window?

Sure - the lots don't close individually in our proposal. The whole auction has a soft close at 10 PM but all lots could be bid on after that point only during someone's 20 minute window. Only bidders who get outbid on a lot after that point will get a 20 minute window, so most people will be done bidding by 10 PM. The auction officially ends when the last guy who gets a 20 minute window lets his 20 minutes pass without becoming high bidder on any lot.

Conceptually - it's much closer to eBay where there is a fixed ending time - the only difference is that the effect of sniping is neutralized and only those people who are outbid have time to counter.