New York Times Leaf Article

[Kutcher55]

What a trivial debate. On a more interesting subject (at least to me), can anyone tell me just how “short” the SPs are for 1948-9 Leaf? They seem to get a massive premium suggesting they are much more than twice as rare as their non SP counterparts. Relative pop counts suggest the same. Is there an old net54 thread someone can direct me to that helps answer this question? Why are these SPs so dang short?

[yanks87]

Originally Posted by Kutcher55

What a trivial debate. On a more interesting subject (at least to me), can anyone tell me just how “short” the SPs are for 1948-9 Leaf? They seem to get a massive premium suggesting they are much more than twice as rare as their non SP counterparts. Relative pop counts suggest the same. Is there an old net54 thread someone can direct me to that helps answer this question? Why are these SPs so dang short?

I don't know that there is a quantifiable number to encapsulate how SHORT the SHORT actually is, that said, in talking with a ton of people while writing the book, they were not really even known about until the 1970's. When speaking with James Beckett on his podcast, he recanted that he, and other dealers started finding them in the 70's centralized in the Great Lakes states. This would make sense as the lawsuit with Bowman hit in March of 1949, but the second suit hit in May, which essentially shut down the east coast distribution of the cards. I think amidst litigation, and wanting to get rid of any inventory that had been produced (the short prints), LEAF pumped out the cards to distributors close to Chicago in an effort to shut down the baseball card endeavor and not lose any more money on it.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by yanks87

I don't know that there is a quantifiable number to encapsulate how SHORT the SHORT actually is, that said, in talking with a ton of people while writing the book, they were not really even known about until the 1970's. When speaking with James Beckett on his podcast, he recanted that he, and other dealers started finding them in the 70's centralized in the Great Lakes states. This would make sense as the lawsuit with Bowman hit in March of 1949, but the second suit hit in May, which essentially shut down the east coast distribution of the cards. I think amidst litigation, and wanting to get rid of any inventory that had been produced (the short prints), LEAF pumped out the cards to distributors close to Chicago in an effort to shut down the baseball card endeavor and not lose any more money on it.

Some were probably issued on the east coast.

The shop I hung out at in the late 70's early 80's had a box of cards in so they could make an offer. I got to look through it but had to be careful since it wasn't theirs yet.
ABout halfway through I mentioned that it was really cool to see a bunch of "high number" leafs (The way they got referred to which was incorrect but less awkward than other ways)
Huge thing, lots of consternation, would raising the offer make the seller change their mind? That happened a lot, especially if they thought the early offers were lowball offers.
Call made, situation explained, new offer made and accepted.

I hoped to get one for spotting them, but no deal. No big deal as I got deals from them on other stuff all the time.

The SPs are very tough cards. I still don't even have a common.
And I've pretty much thought of them as a separate set.

[jchcollins]

Oh please, can something lose a designation and become worth less just because the NYT says so? (Then I might have more than a snowball's chance in hell of ever owning one...)

[yanks87]

Originally Posted by steve B

Some were probably issued on the east coast.

The shop I hung out at in the late 70's early 80's had a box of cards in so they could make an offer. I got to look through it but had to be careful since it wasn't theirs yet.
ABout halfway through I mentioned that it was really cool to see a bunch of "high number" leafs (The way they got referred to which was incorrect but less awkward than other ways)
Huge thing, lots of consternation, would raising the offer make the seller change their mind? That happened a lot, especially if they thought the early offers were lowball offers.
Call made, situation explained, new offer made and accepted.

I hoped to get one for spotting them, but no deal. No big deal as I got deals from them on other stuff all the time.

The SPs are very tough cards. I still don't even have a common.
And I've pretty much thought of them as a separate set.

You're right Steve, I should have clarified, the May injunction was aimed at Pennsylvania based distributors, that said with the first truck that left Chicago with the cards was heading to Boston, (which validates the Antique Roadshow video), so there is a good chance that some of the Short Prints would have gone that way as well.

[Kutcher55]

Originally Posted by yanks87

You're right Steve, I should have clarified, the May injunction was aimed at Pennsylvania based distributors, that said with the first truck that left Chicago with the cards was heading to Boston, (which validates the Antique Roadshow video), so there is a good chance that some of the Short Prints would have gone that way as well.

Thanks. They do seem legit tough. As an example, if you’re looking for a dom dimaggio, as I am, it’s interesting to note that there are 43 Joe D’s presently up for sale on eBay and only 2 Dom D’s. Tough to find specifics on the net about just how rare they are relatively speaking. I have purchased the article from old BB cards written by a much beloved recently passed net54 member and am curious if that article sheds further insight. Curious not only just how scarce they are but if some are more scarce than others.

I know the word is abused in hobby circles but I find the set imagery extremely iconic. Recently reacquired a Ted Williams and it’s quite mesmerizing.

[yanks87]

Originally Posted by Kutcher55

Thanks. They do seem legit tough. As an example, if you’re looking for a dom dimaggio, as I am, it’s interesting to note that there are 43 Joe D’s presently up for sale on eBay and only 2 Dom D’s. Tough to find specifics on the net about just how rare they are relatively speaking. I have purchased the article from old BB cards written by a much beloved recently passed net54 member and am curious if that article sheds further insight. Curious not only just how scarce they are but if some are more scarce than others.

I know the word is abused in hobby circles but I find the set imagery extremely iconic. Recently reacquired a Ted Williams and it’s quite mesmerizing.

The two baseball series were produced the same way, 4X49 cards per sheet. So from a production standpoint, all short prints were produced at the same number. What survived the years, that is another story. The big names always hang around, the lesser knowns sometimes don't as few care about the commons.

I go one step further in my book re: LEAF (available on Amazon) and point out that there was a late printing of the main run of the cards. In that print run there are plate changes made that create an alternate version to the main run of the cards, true variations. So if you were wanting to run down the rabbit hole, there are at least 3 runs of the cards, Early Print, Late Print and Short Print. This has to do with the printing plates, and not the color variation which was a result of the inks that were used. It also doesn't include the printing errors, which there many!

[bcbgcbrcb]

Good thing I’m starting my own YouTube channel right after the first of the year to discuss this vintage rookie card debate among other topics including Negro League Baseball material.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by Kutcher55

What a trivial debate. On a more interesting subject (at least to me), can anyone tell me just how “short” the SPs are for 1948-9 Leaf? They seem to get a massive premium suggesting they are much more than twice as rare as their non SP counterparts. Relative pop counts suggest the same. Is there an old net54 thread someone can direct me to that helps answer this question? Why are these SPs so dang short?

I just looked through my book here called TRUE MINT by the late great Alan Rosen (Mr. Mint) and he mentions how he found four sealed boxes of the second series down in Tampa, and after opening three of them (432 cards), he only got one Satch Paige card! This led him to believe that the Paige was one of the hardest postwar cards to find.

Originally Posted by yanks87

The two baseball series were produced the same way, 4X49 cards per sheet. So from a production standpoint, all short prints were produced at the same number. What survived the years, that is another story. The big names always hang around, the lesser knowns sometimes don't as few care about the commons.

Yeah, so this is the part that's obviously confusing. If Rosen pulled only one Paige card after opening three boxes, then how could they have been produced at the same number ?? Very strange!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

I just looked through my book here called TRUE MINT by the late great Alan Rosen (Mr. Mint) and he mentions how he found four sealed boxes of the second series down in Tampa, and after opening three of them (432 cards), he only got one Satch Paige card! This led him to believe that the Paige was one of the hardest postwar cards to find.



Yeah, so this is the part that's obviously confusing. If Rosen pulled only one Paige card after opening three boxes, then how could they have been produced at the same number ?? Very strange!

If they were in fact printed in equal numbers the company must have destroyed lots of them before releasing them. Aren't these also skip numbered?

[yanks87]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If they were in fact printed in equal numbers the company must have destroyed lots of them before releasing them. Aren't these also skip numbered?

This is the legend and lore that I love around this set. First off, yes, skip numbered, all LEAF sets were except for the 1948 Football offering.

As far as the pack assortment and distribution of cards. This was not modern printing, there was not an order that things came off the press, these cards were printed, cut, and placed into packs by hand. Then the boxes were packed randomly by hand. It would be like taking 40 decks of cards, throwing them in the air and trying to play blackjack guessing when you would hit 21.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by yanks87

This is the legend and lore that I love around this set. First off, yes, skip numbered, all LEAF sets were except for the 1948 Football offering.

As far as the pack assortment and distribution of cards. This was not modern printing, there was not an order that things came off the press, these cards were printed, cut, and placed into packs by hand. Then the boxes were packed randomly by hand. It would be like taking 40 decks of cards, throwing them in the air and trying to play blackjack guessing when you would hit 21.

Makes sense. This was a product of the 40s and everything back then was so different. A person could've purchased five boxes and pulled maybe one Paige and another guy could've pulled five Paiges in one box!! Rosen was lucky to have even found those boxes, however, they were obviously not the best ones!

Originally Posted by yanks87

100% right, Peterson was not short printed, but, that variation represents a 2nd printing of the first run of cards that had changes made to the printing plates making them true variations. I have side by side comparisons in my book but essentially the late printing of the main 49 card have both subtractions and additions to the printing plates which create a variant version of those non short printed cards. For those who run down the rabbit hole, like I did, this variation would equate to higher value on a lower population of variant cards. SO, a blue hat DiMaggio should be worth more than a black hat, same for a red hat Musial or a blue hat Jackie. But that is probably an argument for another thread! Thanks for the numbers!

This is interesting and I remember having a few discussions on here about this subject during the pandemic. How do you know that the blue hats were not a first printing instead ?? Also, do you have any idea why Leaf decided to make these changes ?? I was never in the printing industry, but I do have a basic understanding of CMYK printing. If they had rolled the black ink on top of the blue hat, then it would've given it its 3D shaded look (like the way most of them look like), but for some reason, Leaf decided to leave the black ink off the hat during that particular print-run, and again, I have no idea why they did this. Aesthetic reasons ?? Maybe trying to save black ink ??

And I gotta' get your book, man !!

[yanks87]

This is interesting and I remember having a few discussions on here about this subject during the pandemic. How do you know that the blue hats were not a first printing instead ?? Also, do you have any idea why Leaf decided to make these changes ?? I was never in the printing industry, but I do have a basic understanding of CMYK printing. If they had rolled the black ink on top of the blue hat, then it would've given it its 3D shaded look (like the way most of them look like), but for some reason, Leaf decided to leave the black ink off the hat during that particular print-run, and again, I have no idea why they did this. Aesthetic reasons ?? Maybe trying to save black ink ??

And I gotta' get your book, man !! [/QUOTE]

Several factors pointed at the BLACK HATS being first. The strongest voice was that of the collectors that were alive during the first run and buying the cards. TedZ was the Rosetta Stone on this and so many others. Also if you look at the cards from the Antique Roadshow link, those were collected in Massachusetts, which is where the cards were first distributed. All of those cards, and all of Ted's had black hats, the removal of the black plate details made the cards brighter, and I am guessing that was direct feedback from sales or consumers. They also added color bars to close off the backgrounds, so it was a multiple plate change, making it truly a variation! Exciting stuff, I can talk about it all day long.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Sure, for something like 1962 Topps Sandy Koufax, that's obviously true. But it's certainly not true for T206 Eddie Plank or even 1948 Leaf Jackie Robinson.

The percentage of graded vs ungraded copies of any particular card is largely a function of its value. The number of ungraded T206 Wagners still floating around is likely very close to zero these days. Perhaps there are one or three yet to be discovered, but the likelihood that there are dozens of them sitting around in attics is almost certainly zero.

There are still some collectors out there who, as a point of pride or preference, like to keep their prized cards like 52 Mantles and 48 Leaf Paiges raw, but there aren't very many of them left in terms of percentage of the population. And every time those cards come to market, they still get graded (or regraded). And any time you have a vintage card that is so valuable that it must be graded regardless of condition in order for it to be transactable on the market for anything other than pennies on the dollar of its true value, you can be pretty sure that the pop reports for that card reflect something close to it's true population, if not slightly exaggerating it due to resubmissions (which are MUCH higher than most people here realize). So this would work for something like estimating the true population for 52 Mantles, but definitely not for estimating the 53 Mantle population (there are other sampling techniques we could use to estimate that, but that's another discussion and one I'd prefer not to get into here).

And while yes, I agree with those who say there are still plenty of 52 Mantles out there to be graded, the reality is that those numbers are dwarfed by the number of copies that are/were cracked and resubmitted.



1952 Topps Mickey Mantle = 2863 total pop (2040 PSA, 673 SGC, 147 BVG, 3 CGC)

The 52 Topps Mantle likely has a very similar print run as the 48 Leaf Jackie Robinson. Maybe 10% or so higher at most.

First of all, mad props to you for posting all this data. It's very helpful. Thank you.

Everything that you wrote above is a very interesting topic and worthy of its own thread. Here in Toronto, we have the biggest card show in the country twice a year. I have these American buddies of mine that always come down, and whenever they do, they ALWAYS get a 52T Mantle ... or two. I also have some dealer buddies who live in Quebec and they find this card every now and then as well. And this is just Canada I'm talking about !! Imagine the US ?? Wayyy bigger population and wayyy more cards !! In the next ten years or so, I believe that we’re gonna’ see hundreds and hundreds of these cards come outta’ boomer collections. It's gonna' be wild, bro.

Oh, and in the last REA auction, I was checking out the Leaf Jackies and noticed how most of the PSA-graded examples had new serial numbers. It's starting ... lol

[Gary Dunaier]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

This was a product of the 40s and everything back then was so different. A person could've purchased five boxes and pulled maybe one Paige and another guy could've pulled five Paiges in one box!!

It's like the famous Peanuts comic strip where Charlie Brown buys 500 packs of baseball cards in an unsuccessful quest to get his favorite player, Joe Shlabotnik, then Lucy buys one pack...

[Pat R]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

I just looked through my book here called TRUE MINT by the late great Alan Rosen (Mr. Mint) and he mentions how he found four sealed boxes of the second series down in Tampa, and after opening three of them (432 cards), he only got one Satch Paige card! This led him to believe that the Paige was one of the hardest postwar cards to find.



Yeah, so this is the part that's obviously confusing. If Rosen pulled only one Paige card after opening three boxes, then how could they have been produced at the same number ?? Very strange!

It depends which story you believe the one that has been told a few times is that there were 7 boxes of which he opened 3 and there were 3 Paige cards. He found the cards in Florida but they originated in Michigan.