Most undervalued HOFers

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Topnotchsy

I don't think any of your math is wrong (although I think that simplifying everything down to ERA+ is reductionist) and am pretty comfortable with the idea that Gaylord Perry's performance on the field was of similar value to Nolan Ryan's. (Although Perry had some help from substances placed on the ball...)

What I'm confused about is the assumption that value on the field (as measured using metrics that were only identified and used over a decade after both players retired) would directly correlate with card values.

Card values are tied to popularity, which builds over time and is tied to things like memorable moments, milestones etc. Ryan was in many ways, larger than life. His fanbase is as large as almost any player in the past 50 years. The strength, durability etc. captured people imaginations.

Overall statistical success (by whatever metric you consider) is just one factor. And while I'm a fan of metrics such as ERA+ as useful tools, they are one of many ways that people measure a player's career. And I imagine, quite loosely correlated with card value.

Even if you wanted to try and use statistics as the basis for valuation, you would need a more complex mechanism, as it is clear that peak pitching performance is valued over longevity. Take Steve Carlton whose ERA+ of 115 is lower than Perry's or Blyleven's. But his 4 Cy Young Awards have some people considering him as one of the best ever.

I never once put forth the idea that Ryan wil/should sell for less or that popularity doesn’t impact card prices. I said that he sells for more and that his type sells for more - flashy highlights are more popular than steady performance. The thread is asking for the opposite - players who are bargains when comapred to what they achieved. As we discussed on page 1, this does not mean good investments.

“People can value whatever they want, highlight reel guys tend to be more popular than math guys. Math people know Perry and Ryan are pretty similar, and so if one values guys whose measurable overall performance can be had at much lower prices (like the OP question), guys like Gaylord are undervalued (except his 66, my favorite of his cards) and guys like Nolan are overvalued.”

If people want to complain, can anybody complain about something that I did, in actual reality, say in this transcript?