World Series Predictions?

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

But again, you're assuming with no basis at all that he continues to play badly, or mediocrely. The small sample size of prior games predicts nothing about his next game. The far more accurate predictor is his overall season. By your logic, the Yankees should just bench Judge. He's sucked, so that surely would not be a costly decision, right?

But I'm NOT assuming that. I'm saying they are winning WHILE he's doing that, so whether or not he is playing at all, or playing well or poorly, I don't think the series hinges on him. Therefore in my opinion it would NOT have been a "costly" loss

Let's put it this way. Aren't you assuming he WILL turn it around to say it would be a costly loss?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

But I'm NOT assuming that. I'm saying they are winning WHILE he's doing that, so whether or not he is playing at all, or playing well or poorly, I don't think the series hinges on him. Therefore in my opinion it would NOT have been a "costly" loss

Let's put it this way. Aren't you assuming he WILL turn it around to say it would be a costly loss?

Nope. I am just calculating, ex ante, his expected value for the rest of the series. And again, ex ante, if other guys have been carrying the team, it's reasonable to expect THEY might cool off. So to me, his value is unchanged. Would you have said before the Series that he wasn't that important to the Dodgers chances? If not, then you can't say it after two games.

PS Judge is COLD.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Nope. I am just calculating, ex ante, his expected value for the rest of the series. And again, ex ante, if other guys have been carrying the team, it's reasonable to expect THEY might cool off. So to me, his value is unchanged. Would you have said before the Series that he wasn't that important to the Dodgers chances? If not, then you can't say it after two games.

PS Judge is COLD.

But I wasn't being asked before the series started. I was being asked after they won two games without much of a contribution from him.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

But I wasn't being asked before the series started. I was being asked after they won two games without much of a contribution from him.

The portion of the sentence starting "without much" is irrelevant. I don't understand how you do not see that.

[bk400]

If you're a struggling Aaron Judge, do you really want to see Derek F**king Jeter throwing out the first pitch? The clutch Captain with 5 rings? Why would the Yankees do that?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bk400

If you're a struggling Aaron Judge, do you really want to see Derek F**king Jeter throwing out the first pitch? The clutch Captain with 5 rings? Why would the Yankees do that?

Man, since 2020 Judge is hitting about .150 post-season. Career .199 with .740 OPS.

[bk400]

The Yankees had some mojo until Giancarlo got thrown out at home. I had forgotten how slow he can be:

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/tmGN3oUFsfY?app=desktop

Obviously, he's a monster bat, but man. Talk about having the wrong guy on the basepaths. I mean, he made Teoscar Hernandez look like Ichiro out there in left.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The portion of the sentence starting "without much" is irrelevant. I don't understand how you do not see that.

Because you seem to think I'm saying that he wouldn't possibly contribute going forward, which isn't even remotely my argument, and is actually irrelevant to what I'm saying. He could have gone 5 for 5 with three home runs every game after game two and THAT wouldn't have altered my argument unless they needed all of those runs produced to win.

My point is his contribution may well be irrelevant to the outcome, hence it's not a costly injury. You can't ever win more than one game at a time no matter how many runs a dominant Shohei might have added. If he had gone 5 for 5 last night the result would've been the same. Considering they're now 3 - 0 and he's 1 for 11 maybe strengthens my argument, but it was never about how good or bad Ohtani would or would not play. It was about the Dodgers not needing his contribution. I only used his performance to that point to as evidence that the Dodgers don't appear to need him to win this series.

[Peter_Spaeth]

You seem to be revising your argument, which initially was keyed entirely to Ohtani's performance.

"Ohtani has basically had no impact in the series and precious little in the playoffs."

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

You seem to be revising your argument, which initially was keyed entirely to Ohtani's performance.

"Ohtani has basically had no impact in the series and precious little in the playoffs."

Yes I said that, and yet the Dodgers are where they are, so they are not reliant on a good performance by Ohtani to win. I feel like I keep saying the same thing pretty consistently.

[egri]

I saw on one of the other sites that Aaron Judge is hitting .140 this postseason. Lou Gehrig hit .143 in 1939 when he had ALS.

[bk400]

I have a feeling that Judge is due. I think he goes 3 for 5 with two home runs tonight.