World Series Predictions?

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Again, I'm responding to the person who posted that the victory may be a costly one. Even if they lost Ohtani, at the level he's been at so far in the entire playoffs, Bad series, good series and bad start to a series, I don't think it would've been a costly loss.

If you could choose to lose game two and have a 100% Ohtani, or Win game two but lose Ohtani for the remainder of the series (but not a career damaging situation) I'm taking the latter in a heartbeat as of the time it happened.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Again, I'm responding to the person who posted that the victory may be a costly one. Even if they lost Ohtani, at the level he's been at so far in the entire playoffs, Bad series, good series and bad start to a series, I don't think it would've been a costly loss.

If you could choose to lose game two and have a 100% Ohtani, or Win game two but lose Ohtani for the remainder of the series (but not a career damaging situation) I'm taking the latter in a heartbeat as of the time it happened.

But again, you're assuming with no basis at all that he continues to play badly, or mediocrely. The small sample size of prior games predicts nothing about his next game. The far more accurate predictor is his overall season. By your logic, the Yankees should just bench Judge. He's sucked, so that surely would not be a costly decision, right?

[Shoeless Moe]

Freddie Freeman has the best lefty swing since David Justice.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

But again, you're assuming with no basis at all that he continues to play badly, or mediocrely. The small sample size of prior games predicts nothing about his next game. The far more accurate predictor is his overall season. By your logic, the Yankees should just bench Judge. He's sucked, so that surely would not be a costly decision, right?

But I'm NOT assuming that. I'm saying they are winning WHILE he's doing that, so whether or not he is playing at all, or playing well or poorly, I don't think the series hinges on him. Therefore in my opinion it would NOT have been a "costly" loss

Let's put it this way. Aren't you assuming he WILL turn it around to say it would be a costly loss?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

But I'm NOT assuming that. I'm saying they are winning WHILE he's doing that, so whether or not he is playing at all, or playing well or poorly, I don't think the series hinges on him. Therefore in my opinion it would NOT have been a "costly" loss

Let's put it this way. Aren't you assuming he WILL turn it around to say it would be a costly loss?

Nope. I am just calculating, ex ante, his expected value for the rest of the series. And again, ex ante, if other guys have been carrying the team, it's reasonable to expect THEY might cool off. So to me, his value is unchanged. Would you have said before the Series that he wasn't that important to the Dodgers chances? If not, then you can't say it after two games.

PS Judge is COLD.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Nope. I am just calculating, ex ante, his expected value for the rest of the series. And again, ex ante, if other guys have been carrying the team, it's reasonable to expect THEY might cool off. So to me, his value is unchanged. Would you have said before the Series that he wasn't that important to the Dodgers chances? If not, then you can't say it after two games.

PS Judge is COLD.

But I wasn't being asked before the series started. I was being asked after they won two games without much of a contribution from him.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

But I wasn't being asked before the series started. I was being asked after they won two games without much of a contribution from him.

The portion of the sentence starting "without much" is irrelevant. I don't understand how you do not see that.

[bk400]

If you're a struggling Aaron Judge, do you really want to see Derek F**king Jeter throwing out the first pitch? The clutch Captain with 5 rings? Why would the Yankees do that?

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The portion of the sentence starting "without much" is irrelevant. I don't understand how you do not see that.

Because you seem to think I'm saying that he wouldn't possibly contribute going forward, which isn't even remotely my argument, and is actually irrelevant to what I'm saying. He could have gone 5 for 5 with three home runs every game after game two and THAT wouldn't have altered my argument unless they needed all of those runs produced to win.

My point is his contribution may well be irrelevant to the outcome, hence it's not a costly injury. You can't ever win more than one game at a time no matter how many runs a dominant Shohei might have added. If he had gone 5 for 5 last night the result would've been the same. Considering they're now 3 - 0 and he's 1 for 11 maybe strengthens my argument, but it was never about how good or bad Ohtani would or would not play. It was about the Dodgers not needing his contribution. I only used his performance to that point to as evidence that the Dodgers don't appear to need him to win this series.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Again, I'm responding to the person who posted that the victory may be a costly one. Even if they lost Ohtani, at the level he's been at so far in the entire playoffs, Bad series, good series and bad start to a series, I don't think it would've been a costly loss.

If you could choose to lose game two and have a 100% Ohtani, or Win game two but lose Ohtani for the remainder of the series (but not a career damaging situation) I'm taking the latter in a heartbeat as of the time it happened.

Even when Ohtani is not hitting well (and again, 2 games is a small sample size to say that after his series against the Mets), just having him in the lineup changes how pitchers approach facing the Dodgers because there is always the potential for him to have a big game. You're right that it's still better to be up 2-0 and have Ohtani hurt (although he is playing in game 3) than be 1-1 with Ohtani 100%, but I still think if he had to be out of the lineup due to the injury in game 2, it could change the outlook of the series. The Yankees pitchers wouldn't have the stress of pitching to him which can only help their confidence.

[bk400]

Originally Posted by jayshum

Even when Ohtani is not hitting well (and again, 2 games is a small sample size to say that after his series against the Mets), just having him in the lineup changes how pitchers approach facing the Dodgers because there is always the potential for him to have a big game. You're right that it's still better to be up 2-0 and have Ohtani hurt (although he is playing in game 3) than be 1-1 with Ohtani 100%, but I still think if he had to be out of the lineup due to the injury in game 2, it could change the outlook of the series. The Yankees pitchers wouldn't have the stress of pitching to him which can only help their confidence.

I agree. He's clearly off tonight, but he still did his job -- drew a leadoff walk and scored a run. I suppose if the Yankees determine that he's a big bluff, then the Dodgers will have to sit him. I still can't believe someone can even pretend to play after dislocating his shoulder less than 48 hours ago.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bk400

I agree. He's clearly off tonight, but he still did his job -- drew a leadoff walk and scored a run. I suppose if the Yankees determine that he's a big bluff, then the Dodgers will have to sit him. I still can't believe someone can even pretend to play after dislocating his shoulder less than 48 hours ago.

They pop it back in, shoot you up, and you're good to go lol. Modern science.