World Series Predictions?

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Your assumption is he would just continue to have no impact, but players who are cold tend to get hot if they're superstars. You would have to evaluate his loss based on the full season.

Originally Posted by jayshum

Ohtani didn't do much against the Padres but looked pretty good in the Mets series. 1 for 8 so far in the World Series which is a pretty small sample size to just write him off.

You're both missing my point. They apparently don't need him to win.

As long as the injury isn't anything that affects him down the road. Losing him in this series doesn't seem to be that big of a deal.

Would I like him back and healthy this series? Of course, as he may well break out. But even without him, up 2 - 0 the Dodgers would be a prohibitive favorite to close things out. So I don't think it's even remotely a "costly 2nd win" unless it was a career affecting event.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

You're both missing my point. They apparently don't need him to win.

As long as the injury isn't anything that affects him down the road. Losing him in this series doesn't seem to be that big of a deal.

Would I like him back and healthy this series? Of course, as he may well break out. But even without him, up 2 - 0 the Dodgers would be a prohibitive favorite to close things out. So I don't think it's even remotely a "costly 2nd win" unless it was a career affecting event.

But the same guys who have been hot and carrying the team may well go cold. It's never, IMO, not a big deal to lose your best player.

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

You're both missing my point. They apparently don't need him to win.

As long as the injury isn't anything that affects him down the road. Losing him in this series doesn't seem to be that big of a deal.

Maybe you and the Canadian should not watch the games together. Did you miss the bottom of the 8th inning in Game 1 when Ohtani hit that shot over Soto's head, off the top of the wall, for a double, then heads up move makes it to 3rd when the ball gets away on the throw in.

He then scores the tying run on Betts fly out. Freeman makes the 3rd out next AB. He doesn't make it to 3rd, good chance he gets stranded on base. Heads up baseball. I've seen other guys celebrating their double and would have missed the ball getting away.

That ties the game going to the 9th otherwise Yankees probably win.

Not exactly what I'd call "no impact in the WS" as you say.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Obviously the Dodgers are in a great position with a 2-0 lead. But this is BASEBALL. It's a long effing way from over. They're now heading into Yankee Stadium for games on the road against a great team, and by the way with an Aaron Judge who is way overdue. To say that they would be a "prohibitive" favorite without Ohtani, such that if he were lost it would not be "even remotely" costly, IMO does not show a keen understanding of the game. Of course it would be a big deal to lose the best player in baseball for potentially the next five games of a seven game series.

[bk400]

I appreciate that Ohtani is getting better orthopedic care than I did when I dislocated my shoulder back in the day, but I'm surprised that he can play 45 hours after that kind of injury. Even though it is his back shoulder, I'd have to imagine it will impact his timing and his ability to stabilize and control the bat.

[nolemmings]

1981. Yankees take first two games against Dodgers, then lose four straight. A miserable result but evidence that it happens. Would love to see the Yanks return the favor.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

Maybe you and the Canadian should not watch the games together.

Screw you. All things considered, it'll be a cold day in hell before I get together with either of you two now.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Again, I'm responding to the person who posted that the victory may be a costly one. Even if they lost Ohtani, at the level he's been at so far in the entire playoffs, Bad series, good series and bad start to a series, I don't think it would've been a costly loss.

If you could choose to lose game two and have a 100% Ohtani, or Win game two but lose Ohtani for the remainder of the series (but not a career damaging situation) I'm taking the latter in a heartbeat as of the time it happened.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Again, I'm responding to the person who posted that the victory may be a costly one. Even if they lost Ohtani, at the level he's been at so far in the entire playoffs, Bad series, good series and bad start to a series, I don't think it would've been a costly loss.

If you could choose to lose game two and have a 100% Ohtani, or Win game two but lose Ohtani for the remainder of the series (but not a career damaging situation) I'm taking the latter in a heartbeat as of the time it happened.

But again, you're assuming with no basis at all that he continues to play badly, or mediocrely. The small sample size of prior games predicts nothing about his next game. The far more accurate predictor is his overall season. By your logic, the Yankees should just bench Judge. He's sucked, so that surely would not be a costly decision, right?

[Shoeless Moe]

Freddie Freeman has the best lefty swing since David Justice.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

But again, you're assuming with no basis at all that he continues to play badly, or mediocrely. The small sample size of prior games predicts nothing about his next game. The far more accurate predictor is his overall season. By your logic, the Yankees should just bench Judge. He's sucked, so that surely would not be a costly decision, right?

But I'm NOT assuming that. I'm saying they are winning WHILE he's doing that, so whether or not he is playing at all, or playing well or poorly, I don't think the series hinges on him. Therefore in my opinion it would NOT have been a "costly" loss

Let's put it this way. Aren't you assuming he WILL turn it around to say it would be a costly loss?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

But I'm NOT assuming that. I'm saying they are winning WHILE he's doing that, so whether or not he is playing at all, or playing well or poorly, I don't think the series hinges on him. Therefore in my opinion it would NOT have been a "costly" loss

Let's put it this way. Aren't you assuming he WILL turn it around to say it would be a costly loss?

Nope. I am just calculating, ex ante, his expected value for the rest of the series. And again, ex ante, if other guys have been carrying the team, it's reasonable to expect THEY might cool off. So to me, his value is unchanged. Would you have said before the Series that he wasn't that important to the Dodgers chances? If not, then you can't say it after two games.

PS Judge is COLD.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Again, I'm responding to the person who posted that the victory may be a costly one. Even if they lost Ohtani, at the level he's been at so far in the entire playoffs, Bad series, good series and bad start to a series, I don't think it would've been a costly loss.

If you could choose to lose game two and have a 100% Ohtani, or Win game two but lose Ohtani for the remainder of the series (but not a career damaging situation) I'm taking the latter in a heartbeat as of the time it happened.

Even when Ohtani is not hitting well (and again, 2 games is a small sample size to say that after his series against the Mets), just having him in the lineup changes how pitchers approach facing the Dodgers because there is always the potential for him to have a big game. You're right that it's still better to be up 2-0 and have Ohtani hurt (although he is playing in game 3) than be 1-1 with Ohtani 100%, but I still think if he had to be out of the lineup due to the injury in game 2, it could change the outlook of the series. The Yankees pitchers wouldn't have the stress of pitching to him which can only help their confidence.

[bk400]

Originally Posted by jayshum

Even when Ohtani is not hitting well (and again, 2 games is a small sample size to say that after his series against the Mets), just having him in the lineup changes how pitchers approach facing the Dodgers because there is always the potential for him to have a big game. You're right that it's still better to be up 2-0 and have Ohtani hurt (although he is playing in game 3) than be 1-1 with Ohtani 100%, but I still think if he had to be out of the lineup due to the injury in game 2, it could change the outlook of the series. The Yankees pitchers wouldn't have the stress of pitching to him which can only help their confidence.

I agree. He's clearly off tonight, but he still did his job -- drew a leadoff walk and scored a run. I suppose if the Yankees determine that he's a big bluff, then the Dodgers will have to sit him. I still can't believe someone can even pretend to play after dislocating his shoulder less than 48 hours ago.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bk400

I agree. He's clearly off tonight, but he still did his job -- drew a leadoff walk and scored a run. I suppose if the Yankees determine that he's a big bluff, then the Dodgers will have to sit him. I still can't believe someone can even pretend to play after dislocating his shoulder less than 48 hours ago.

They pop it back in, shoot you up, and you're good to go lol. Modern science.