Card Interest Down? Not at the National.

parkplace33 · #1 08-02-2024, 07:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny630

From what I noticed over the past year or so is that many vintage collectors are buying raw cards at shows if priced reasonably with nice eye appeal. It seems the middle and lower grade populations have exploded since....what this tells me is many of these guys buying the raw cards at shows as above are submitting these for grading. Just like the explosion of GM raw card breaks...many of these guys buying are getting them and submitting right away after they get the cards. The addiction to grading is real for dealers online...I know of several guys on facebook whom are sellers that go to all the shows purchase raw vintage lower and middle grade haggling for the lowest prices. When they get home they go right to grading for listing when arrived back on Facebook. It's wild to watch the churn of these cards.

I agree with what you are seeing. I don�t understand it either. Why would you buy a $20 card, grade for $15 more, and then try to sell for $50. Makes no business sense.

These guys should listen more to Warren buffet and less to YouTube card influencers.

perezfan · #2 08-02-2024, 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parkplace33

I agree with what you are seeing. I don�t understand it either. Why would you buy a $20 card, grade for $15 more, and then try to sell for $50. Makes no business sense.

These guys should listen more to Warren buffet and less to YouTube card influencers.

I do the exact opposite. Often the only option is to buy them graded, but then I crack them out as soon as I can. But if it resides in an SGC slab (and is aesthetically pleasing) I'll often leave it as-is.

theshowandme · #3 08-02-2024, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parkplace33

I agree with what you are seeing. I don�t understand it either. Why would you buy a $20 card, grade for $15 more, and then try to sell for $50. Makes no business sense.

These guys should listen more to Warren buffet and less to YouTube card influencers.

That�s ~40% profit margin

That is incredible at scale

darwinbulldog · #4 08-02-2024, 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theshowandme

That�s ~40% profit margin

That is incredible at scale

You may be conflating trying to sell at $50 with selling at $50.

parkplace33 · #5 08-02-2024, 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

You may be conflating trying to sell at $50 with selling at $50.

Bingo.

raulus · #6 08-02-2024, 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theshowandme

That�s ~40% profit margin

That is incredible at scale

Not so sure that it�s really this rich.

This analysis ignores the cost to ship back and forth from the grader. Also ignores selling costs, and the cost of capital or time value of money while your cash is tied up waiting for the piece to get graded, and then waiting for it to sell once it�s graded. Throw in some overhead for salaries to pay your people to manage all this stuff, a little rent to store everything and have a site for your people to work, some insurance to cover your operations, and it gets a lot more tight.

On a good day it�s more like a 15-20% profit margin. On a bad day it could be less than 10%. Still not nothing. But probably not nearly as fat as it might seem at first blush.

Of course, if the market is rising, particularly if it�s rising aggressively, then the time spent waiting for grading and for the piece to sell works to make the math a whole lot better. But as much as it pains us to admit it, cardboard doesn�t always go up, and go up bigly.

Exhibitman · #7 08-02-2024, 09:57 PM

That video is crazy. Looks like the 2022 Burbank show, which was so packed they weren�t letting dealers back inside.

Modern card speculation is the poor man�s meme stock.

theshowandme · #8 08-03-2024, 08:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

That video is crazy. Looks like the 2022 Burbank show, which was so packed they weren�t letting dealers back inside.

Modern card speculation is the poor man�s meme stock.

I was with several people and we kept saying how crazy it was

Cards were moving and a lot of cash was being exchanged

And just imagine the original plan was for that thing to run 3-4 more times during the week!

notfast · #9 08-03-2024, 06:07 PM

I love those $5-20 cards that sell for $50 after sending to sgc.

Helps cover cost of the cards I want to keep.

jimtigers65 · #10 08-03-2024, 07:13 PM

I was very surprised to see the amount of people going through ten cent monster boxes at the National.

theshowandme · #11 08-03-2024, 08:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raulus

Not so sure that it�s really this rich.

This analysis ignores the cost to ship back and forth from the grader. Also ignores selling costs, and the cost of capital or time value of money while your cash is tied up waiting for the piece to get graded, and then waiting for it to sell once it�s graded. Throw in some overhead for salaries to pay your people to manage all this stuff, a little rent to store everything and have a site for your people to work, some insurance to cover your operations, and it gets a lot more tight.

On a good day it�s more like a 15-20% profit margin. On a bad day it could be less than 10%. Still not nothing. But probably not nearly as fat as it might seem at first blush.

Of course, if the market is rising, particularly if it�s rising aggressively, then the time spent waiting for grading and for the piece to sell works to make the math a whole lot better. But as much as it pains us to admit it, cardboard doesn�t always go up, and go up bigly.

I�ll concede the points about opportunity cost of sitting inventory and playing the waiting game

That is real risk for any business owner.

That said, I know several people operating this way and they are churning inventory a number of ways: card shows, Facebook, Instagram, Discord, Twitter, and last case scenario, 7 day eBay auctions.

Shipping adds little to the per unit cost basis if you are sending 50-100 cards at a time for example. Or if you are dropping off at card shows where you only pay for shipping on the way back.

If you are getting 15-25% return on your $ while doing this on the side, it can be very fruitful

whodey14 · #12 08-02-2024, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parkplace33

I agree with what you are seeing. I don’t understand it either. Why would you buy a $20 card, grade for $15 more, and then try to sell for $50. Makes no business sense.

These guys should listen more to Warren buffet and less to YouTube card influencers.

Doing it once? Sure. As mentioned by theshowandme at scale that is a very legitimate business. Many thrive at smaller margins.

EDIT

Went to the show all week and the after show on Wednesday. Even on the first evening the place was ridiculous. I walked in about 5 feet and couldn't leave. Made my way through the crowd to a side door and left. Not for me. Even the crowd at the show was excessive. Makes me miss pre-covid National times where you could at least walk around and see the showcases. I'm younger than most and do enjoy the modern side of the hobby as well but my generation is not who I associate with. Modern for me is unique patches/autos of older players. So the video crew flipping Panini "case hits" is not for me either. Did feel like vintage was very well represented however.

Clemente_Collector · #13 08-05-2024, 03:31 PM

Howard Chasser came on my channel to discuss the National, Howard had some great perspective from the dealer side of the table, check it out!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ssj78Z...UgY29sbGVjdG9y

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