Card Interest Down? Not at the National.
 

That is my one big takeaway from the 2024 National. Pictures, videos, stories, this National was packed. I can't wait to see what the finally ticket sales are (Rich Klein)? I think this is good for the hobby in general and am excited to see what the rest of 2024 is like.

What is your National takeaway?

My cliff notes from Wed and Thur:

Parking/traffic was a nightmare - I didn't pay for parking either day as they just weren't properly checking. I came very early the second day to avoid the jam0

Entry - Not as bad a CHI last year...but I walked in with no ticket check the first day and probably could have done the same the second day had I not needed to sell my unused ticket from Day 1 - Please note I didn't do this in a sneaky fashion...rather walked right through the door solo without the cover of a crowd....not the first time this has happened at the N

Crowds - Felt like the the largest crowd of the 20 or so I have been to. This could have been aided by the parking fiasco, but felt getting front row access to most tables was difficult.

Merch - As someone that buys both modern/current and vintage of all sports, I have never seen so many modern picker style boxes/tables ($.10/$.25/$1). I also feel like there wasn't as much vintage percentage-wise as there used to be.

$$$ - For the most part I would say there were deals as usual for those willing to dig, but most of the current modern display cards were priced MUCH higher than comps, while the vintage seemed to have softened a bit. I always love that I can go to three straight tables and find the exact same modern card for $.10 then $1 then $10. Same goes for vintage for $1 - $5 - $25.

Misc. - They did a better job than ever in keeping the big Manufacturers/Breakers/AH set ups in the same area. Also the temperature/food/bathrooms were all good....the downstairs bathrooms were a bit a mess though.

I had plans to attend the National, but life got in the way. I really do enjoy the hobby. On another thread, I mentioned how the annual Beckett Price Guide opened my eyes to what was out there. NET54 really opened my eyes even wider as to what members of the hobby collect. Pennants? Pins? Who knew?

From the size of the daily crowds, the hobby is clearly healthy. However, as I read and watched the daily National recaps and videos (thanks to those who posted), I could not help but wonder is the hobby bubble proof? Manufactured scarcity of star players is the red meat that keeps folks rabid to break wax. In the end it is just fancy paper. Perhaps it is crypto currency generational effect, everything just keeps going up and up until it does not.

"Household Debt Climbs to $17.69 Trillion in First Quarter; Delinquency Rates Rise Again 

Total household debt rose by $184 billion to reach $17.69 trillion, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. Mortgage balances increased by $190 billion to $12.44 trillion, while balances on auto loans climbed $9 billion to $1.62 trillion, continuing their upward trajectory. Credit card balances declined, as is typical for the first quarter, falling by $14 billion to $1.12 trillion. Nearly 9 percent of credit card balances and 8 percent of auto loans (annualized) transitioned into delinquency. "

Wow, $2.74 trillion in auto and credit card debt combined! Are card collectors just independently wealthy? Every so often the stock market gets frothy and a correction of 10% (or more) happens. Thus far the hobby seems to be immune from such a correction. Don't get caught holding the bag..............

There is definitely a certain amount of wealth required to deal in higher end stuff as many members here do. Spending $10k+ on a piece of cardboard is something only a small fraction of Americans can manage.

I would guess there are many out there who are borrowing to support their activities in the hobby. I recall reading recently that something like 85% of new car and 40% of used car purchases are financed, which is absolutely crazy to me. People just want stuff they can't afford.

When I went on Thursday July 25 that was by far the most crowded National I have ever attended.

It's the new American dream!

Living your entire adult life 1 penny away from bankruptcy.

I have nothing to back it up except personal observation...nonetheless, the people I see buying cardboard that maybe shouldn't are the pack/box busting types, not the buying-singles type. By a wide margin, those are the guys/gals I see rolling up trying to sell nearly their entire collection at once because "something came up."

That said, and though it's something that's been offered by auction houses for a long time, I'm seeing (and getting in emails) a whole lot more offers to give you money up front if you cosign cards. There's auction houses that didn't used to do this as a means of promotion that are now extremely up front about their ability to do this.

Did anyone notice if many dealers with middle to higher end vintage had a large majority of their cards graded by CSG?? I have to say most who were vintage dealers had tons of SGC and PSA slabs.

I saw very few CSG slabs personally.

Crowded is not necessarily the same thing as lots of card sales. My limited anecdotal evidence is that cards that friends were looking for for me were insanely overpriced.

National recap
 

On Thursday, dealers were so busy I had to wait just to get their attention. I saw plenty of sales. This soft resistance from people who didn’t attend is wrong. Hobby looked awfully healthy to me on Thursday. Trent King

No, most of the regular National card collector attendees budget & take a few thousand dollars for this show. The National changed after COVID. It depends on your perspective if it's better, worse, or the same as pre-COVID Nationals. The crowds are so much bigger than before that it is evident that any of the venues (IX Center, Stephens, etc,...) having the National are now too small.

I witnessed a VERY healthy hobby when I attended Wed and Thurs. I imagine it was even more nuts on Friday and Saturday. I stayed in downtown CLE and even though I liked being next to a casino for some late night poker action and within walking distance of Progressive field, the 20 minute drive to the IX wasn't fun. I much prefer Chicago location which is walking distance to hotels/restaurants. Would love to see the show expand to twice/year with Chicago being permanent and then going to other cities Dallas/Anaheim/Baltimore/Boston/Seattle etc. for the 2nd yearly location.

Every dealer I talked to said it was the most revenue generating National they've ever had. And just think if they had better WIFI/Cell they could have made even more money as it limited digital payments and comp research.

Overall I think the economy is humming along nicely and the wads of cash trading hands portends a strong hobby for the years to come.

agreed... was there Wed , Thursday .Friday am .. and that was enough.. huge crowds and lots of kids .. looks pretty healthy to say the least

I was not at the National, but I do feel the "hobby" is healthy, and I have a theory why:

This is pure conjecture. I have no tangible basis for these statements, but I feel they have truth. Also, I realize I am making massive generalizations here.
Full disclosure, I am a Gen Xer

For Gen X and Older:

Many people/collectors in this group feel financially comfortable. They purchased homes years ago, and they have seen their homes substantially appreciate. To the extent they have mortgages, they have very low interest rates (often sub 3%). Many of these people were taught to invest in stocks, and they did. They not only invested in their personal capacity, but they opened 401ks and IRAs and they maxed out contributions. And they have seen the value of their stock portfolios appreciate substantially. These people are (or are approaching) being empty-nesters. They are done paying tuition and no longer pay for, or merely subsidize, children, rather than fully supporting them. They are making the most money they have ever made in their career, as they are in senior positions and have job tenure, yet they have fewer expenses than they have had in years. They feel financially comfortable, if not wealthy. Regarding cards, they likely have items that have appreciated a ton in their time. This means they not only have additional wealth through cardboard, but they believe in cardboard being a potential source of wealth since they have experienced it first hand.

These people are buying cards and they have money to spend.

For Gen Y and Younger:

These people are a complete 180 from the group above. They rent and do not own homes. They do not contribute to, let alone max out 401Ks, and other retirement accounts. They do not save like their parents. Instead, they spend. This does not mean they don't want to be wealthy, they do. They just don't want to go the slow and steady route us older farts were taught. They know several crypto millionaires. They know "influencers" who are making money off the internet and they view YouTubers as celebrities. To them, the stock market is a casino and meme stocks are solid investments. They are much more accepting of "alternative" investments/careers/lifestyles. They are children of the internet, who want it now and they spend what they have/make now.

These people are buying cards and they spend the money they have.

So, I think the older "collectors" have the means to collect what they love, even if at higher price tags, and to invest in expensive cardboard. The younger "collectors" live in the now, spending what they have, looking for the quick win to roll over and over and over into the "next deal". Both groups, together, are fueling the hobby and keeping it healthy.

Sorry for the long post, most (if not all) of which is likely hogwash.

Dealer perspective
 

I was at booth 1042. Great to meet many Net 54ers! I echo most of the above stated sentiment. By far the busiest national I have been to. I literally didn't have time to eat lunch or use the bathroom Wed-Sat!!! I do this full time and am no stranger to being on my feet at shows for 2-3 day shows - this was a whole other animal - I was physically and mentally exhausted at the end of each day (except Sunday). Had Many people coming over to photograph, video and discuss the holy grail PSA 9 1953 Stahl Meyer Mantle

Agree that in and out, bathroom and food logistics for attendees and wifi service needs some significant improvement. Move in, move out, security and all else was excellent, well coordinated and managed.

That was a very sound look at reality and the hobby. Good stuff.

Ryan, you are 100% spot on in my opinion.

The hobby is alive and well! Bah humbug to those that constantly preach that the hobby is entering a junk wax era again and that the sky is falling in the hobby! It’s Good to see the hobby thriving!

"So, I think the older "collectors" have the means to collect what they love, even if at higher price tags, and to invest in expensive cardboard. The younger "collectors" live in the now, spending what they have, looking for the quick win to roll over and over and over into the "next deal". Both groups, together, are fueling the hobby and keeping it healthy."

Well said Ryan,

For me it's still a sacrifice collecting cards, 5k used to buy us 3 cards, now it's just one. I find I have to be laser focused on what I want my collection to look like and stay away from the "squirrel" cards, aka "gee that would be a neat addition to my collection" in lieu of staying disciplined and on point.

I'm completely happy curating my collection to less than 500 cards and varied my goals so I can participate at several price points but remain in my 1909-1914 sweet spot, whether that's E-sets, back runs, color runs, player runs, image collecting, etc. I was fortunate to fulfill my post war goals except for a couple of cards during the run up, who doesn't want a 53 Mantle in their collection?

That being said, my greatest joy is the relationships I've made here, simultaneously helping fellow members and amazed at the generosity of knowledge, time, and care for what I'm trying to put together shown from other members, which includes not only you but a long list of old school 2009 members.

The money is immaterial, what counts is the passion. I watch guys like VintageCatcher collect nothing but catchers, that's awesome!
He might pay $100 bucks for a catcher image and I smile every time he adds one to his collection. There's a hundred stories like that here and I'm rooting for everyone of them.

Was there a lot of talk between dealers and customers about Ash's theft?

I thought the same thing....the growth since the first post-covid show has been large and steady. I think with the increase in modern cards and 10-25 year olds present...it will only get more crazy. Time to set up two shows a year....summer in CHI and another rotating EQUALLY around the country.

If you're right Ryan, that would imply that cards are about at their peak right now, and should crash in about 10-20 years, when the Boomers are no longer buying, Gen X is slowing down, and the Millennials and Gen Zers have to sell what they can to pay debts and get by. (For the record, I'm a millennial who invests in index funds, maxes out his 401K, and never buys a card with the intention of selling.)

Peter, in the past, I would agree with you But from what I have seen, guys spent and got pick ups, so maybe they worked deals from the prices? or maybe they just accepted the price.

This, 100 percent.

I also see this. Guys are not waiting to get a card. They are buying it now. I don't know if that is fear of the price going up, low availability, whatever. But the motto is "Buy it now".

I'm guessing a lot of the older guys still collecting at these prices are leveraging from the appreciation in collections accumulated when ordinary folk with ordinary incomes could do that. Nobody loves everything forever, so you sell the things you don't have to have anymore to be able to make a play for things you otherwise wouldn't be able to afford. And, as others have said, there's the "wealth effect" of big appreciations in homes, the market, etc. I have no clue what the younger dudes are up to at these shows, and I wonder how many are actual collectors who love their cards like the older folk, but whatever they're about it's great to see them put some juice into the hobby and some of them will inevitably gravitate to vintage and keep the life going in that, too.

I get the logic, and based on the reasons you outlined from household to household, there's probably a fair amount of cash available for fun stuff and frivolities like cardboard.

The only thing that I keep coming back to is that it just seems like there's so much stuff out there, and it's all so bloody expensive. The ML digital catalog just dropped today, and it's 398 pages packed full of incredible stuff. Some of it will get well into 6 figures, or beyond. Even the "cheap" stuff will mostly be 4 figures. And that's just one auction!

It just boggles my mind that there's really that many people with that much cash running around to drop on cardboard. Not that I'm not one of those people! But I just have a really hard time figuring out how there's so many others.

Part of the answer could just be churn. Sellers in today's auction are taking their proceeds and plowing it back into new purchases, and that's part of what keeps the cycle moving. Since I tend to buy my stuff and then just sit on it, that's a feature that I haven't ever fully appreciated.

And maybe the other answer, as you note is that everyone is just feeling flush due to the strong and persistent everything rally. Even for those that aren't flush, then they're living like there's no tomorrow, and spending what they have, including on stuff like cardboard.

More than who's buying, I wonder who's selling.

You worried the smart money is selling?

Too much money, not enough time "In the market" trying to "time the market".


Good news is you only have to sell 25% of what you would have 5 years ago.. to make the same gross revenue!

All the good stuff is locked away in collections. <s

Another dealer viewpoint -- at booth 800 eight booths in the main entrance.

Second best National of 40!!! Post sales could jump it to number one of 40. I am 100% vintage pre -1975. Business was brisk and I didn't get to eat most days until 2 P.M. or later.

What was hot? Everything vintage -- which sport or non sport? -- just everything!!!

My display was so good that I drew a diagram so I can repeat the set up next year. Every day, hundreds of customers told me I had the best display at the show and spent hours staring at my packs. I displayed raw unopened wax packs from 1933 to 1970 - and I blew many minds with my 1935 National Chicle and every year Goudey packs and my rare Parkhurst and Topps Hockey packs. They didn't sell because they were not graded but I did sell some pack rarities that pushed my sales almost to my best show ever -- and I have done 40 Nationals and literally over 1,000 shows (I even ran over 300 shows).

I suspected that the pre show noise was just that. I really would like to see everyone come to next year's National in Chicago, but I am sure that many Net 54ers will not come and say that the hobby is dead or everything will be too expensive or something similar.

You can't imagine how many Net 54ers came and introduced themselves to me, and often spent money at my booth. Also, many more Canadians came and spent money.

My take on the high prices? Everyone who buys from me wants a discount of 10-20 percent off. I never sell anything at the price I have on the item. If I priced my vintage cards too low, I will still be held to a 10-20 percent further reduction. Yes, most of what I sell (except for my packs) was bought in the 70s and 80s, but replacing that stock is almost impossible. I would prefer to let someone else enjoy my cards but don't want to give it away. Fair is fair. Also I am very happy that everyone did well!! We all deserve it.

Steve

The IX center has hosted a ton of events over the years, and the Cleveland local news said this was the most people they had ever seen attend an event there.

I didn't have time to stop and chat but I enjoyed walking by your booth a number of times on my way elsewhere. I was at the other end of the 800 aisle. Your stuff was absolutely mind-blowing

For one of the gen x er that reawakened back in 2020 after a long hiatus, I would add it is a lot more fun to look at cards/photos etc. vs Johnson and Johnson stock prices to justify the concept of diversification. I am not saying people went in as an investment, but the idea of alternative assets is a real thing now (like art, cars, investing in companies, real estate). To combine a great hobby together kept people in. That said, being smart about % and readjusting is important and frankly utility is also valuable if you have that mindset.

In addition, adding new relationships is also just as valuable at certain age groups, common interests in this non-social online world.

From what I noticed over the past year or so is that many vintage collectors are buying raw cards at shows if priced reasonably with nice eye appeal. It seems the middle and lower grade populations have exploded since....what this tells me is many of these guys buying the raw cards at shows as above are submitting these for grading. Just like the explosion of GM raw card breaks...many of these guys buying are getting them and submitting right away after they get the cards. The addiction to grading is real for dealers online...I know of several guys on facebook whom are sellers that go to all the shows purchase raw vintage lower and middle grade haggling for the lowest prices. When they get home they go right to grading for listing when arrived back on Facebook. It's wild to watch the churn of these cards.

I am close to the tail end of millenials (31 yo) and it is like being a middle child between Gen X and Gen Z.

It is two different worlds.

The Gen Z kids are animals with the Panini football and basketball cards, rolexes, gambling, etc.

Most of the people I know my age are married, having kids, and moving their collections into vintage.

I posted a video of the counter culture "After Show" at the Aviator on Thursday night. I had never seen anything like it. I do not know if a single card in the showcases was priced less than $1,000. I also did not know who half the basketball/football players were on the $5,000+ cards.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rayq_AcrJsE

Don't forget inheritances. As we bury the Greatest Generation and the Silent Generation (and the earliest Boomers), a ton of wealth is transferring tax-free (for the most part) to Gen X and Millennials. I was at my 40th HS reunion last fall. I went to a small private prep school in L.A. where nearly all of the students were from families that were in the top 10% financially speaking and most of my classmates who showed up had inherited enough from their parents since the 30th reunion to retire or semi-retire on it. Since we are in our late fifties, very few of us were content to do nothing, but having enough to pay off a house and fund a retirement plan frees up a large part of future income for discretionary spending. I suspect a lot of 'advanced' collectors are in a similar position and aren't sweating a $5,000 card the way they would have a decade ago.

The prosperity is not limited to the National. I set up every few months at Front Row Cards' Pasadena show. Last show was one of the best ones I've had. My sales were strong across various categories and not made by one or two big cards. In fact, I did not even have a showcase of higher end cards, just picker boxes. My eBay sales are good too. There is a lot of money out there right now and it is not limited to veteran collectors and young speculators flipping shiny crap. Anecdotally speaking, after chatting with quite a few collectors at shows, inheritance is factoring into it.

I have noticed that a lot of current players are collecting cards, which I think should get young collectors interested. I can't remember a time when I've read about so many players collecting. Usually you hear about random players here and there. I think the players collecting and showing off their cards is great for the health of the hobby. It's a lot of young players too who haven't made real money yet (in baseball terms). They could become higher end collectors once they start collecting big league checks

I hear the greatest generation was a lot more chatty than the silent generation.

Although I suspect all that greatness creates pretty high expectations.

And I guess I need to find some rich old people who are otherwise childless who can adopt me to help support my collection.

So by my flawed logic then it is the most fun when you can look at your cards and the J&J stock price at the same time.

Unfortunately, one or the other for me!

Don’t drain your 401k like an old thread discussed.

That is way too packed. No freaking way. Some craziness right there. I am not sure I can get excited enough to endure something like that.

Talk about a petri dish.

I have to think the fire marshall would be unhappy about this

My son and I went to this show on Wednesday evening and it was insane busy. We heard the venue cancelled the show after the 1st night (the fire marshall may have made the decision), and then I noticed there was a cancellation sign in the lobby when entering for the Net54 'get together' on Thursday......however, word didn't reach all collectors as there were about a dozen of them holding their own trade night on the curb in the front parking lot.

Card Interest Down? Not at the National.
 

They were.

As I left there were at least 3 uniformed police officers walking in from outside

The next night I saw this sign walking into Steve’s event.

They found space in one of the hotels from what I understandhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...900cd3a8ed.jpg

I agree with what you are seeing. I don’t understand it either. Why would you buy a $20 card, grade for $15 more, and then try to sell for $50. Makes no business sense.

These guys should listen more to Warren buffet and less to YouTube card influencers.

I do the exact opposite. Often the only option is to buy them graded, but then I crack them out as soon as I can. But if it resides in an SGC slab (and is aesthetically pleasing) I'll often leave it as-is.

That’s ~40% profit margin

That is incredible at scale